Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

[howlin' 2 427]

On 2/7/2018 at 10:31 AM, mjb03003 said:

 

I'd say Mahomes to DeMarcus Robinson is a connection to watch. They made a lot of big plays together in preseason. 

Ahh, the preseason superstars  ... it's nice to show they're on the same page but I take anything done after the starters & immediate backups are out with a grain (okay , a block ) of salt. 

[Corleone 1,961]

As we know, Patrick Mahomes sat almost his entire rookie season (starting only in the season finale, with KC resting starters). Will having sat on the bench to soak up the NFL game under a vet help him going forward? Who knows for sure, but I took a look at every 1st round QB drafted this century (2000--2017).

 

Player	Rookie Season	Rookie Starts	Rookie Pass Attempts	Career TD Passes	Notes
Andrew Luck	2012	16	627	132	will shoulder prevent greatness?
Sam Bradford	2010	16	590	101	keeps getting injured
Jameis Winston	2015	16	535	69	1 Pro Bowl; jury still out
Cam Newton	2011	16	517	158	1 Super Bowl loss; 1 MVP & 3 Pro Bowls
Ryan Tannehill	2012	16	484	106	meh
David Carr	2002	16	444	65	BUST (that offensive line killed him)
Matt Ryan	2008	16	434	260	1 Super Bowl loss; 1 MVP & 4 Pro Bowls
Joe Flacco	2008	16	428	200	1 Super Bowl win
Brandon Weeden	2012	15	517	31	BUST (29-year old rookies aren't a good idea)
Robert Griffin III	2012	15	393	42	1 Pro Bowl; injuries derailed career, so is he a true bust?
Mark Sanchez	2009	15	364	86	BUST (and the butt fumble)
Blaine Gabbert	2011	14	413	44	BUST
Blake Bortles	2014	13	475	90	Bust? Well, a question mark at best
Byron Leftwich	2003	13	418	58	BUST
Vince Young	2006	13	357	46	BUST (somehow had 2 Pro Bowls)
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	13	295	329	2 Super Bowl wins; 6 Pro Bowls
Joey Harrington	2002	12	429	79	BUST
Teddy Bridgewater	2014	12	402	28	1 Pro Bowl; okay and then major injury
Marcus Mariota	2015	12	370	58	regressed in third season
Mitch Trubisky	2017	12	330	7	not very impressive yet
Matt Leinart	2006	11	377	15	BUST
Matthew Stafford	2009	10	377	216	1 Pro Bowl
EJ Manuel	2013	10	306	20	BUST
Christian Ponder	2011	10	291	38	BUST
Josh Freeman	2009	9	290	81	BUST
Kyle Boller	2003	9	224	48	BUST
Jared Goff	2016	7	205	33	terrible rookie year (Fisher) but big second year (McVay)
Eli Manning	2004	7	197	339	2 Super Bowl wins & 4 Pro Bowls
Alex Smith	2005	7	165	183	3 Pro Bowls
DeShaun Watson	2017	6	204	19	on way to possible monster season before injury
Patrick Ramsey	2002	5	227	35	BUST
Jay Cutler	2006	5	137	227	1 Pro Bowl; million-dollar arm, 10-cent desire?
Tim Tebow	2010	3	82	17	BUST who (almost) everyone knew couldn't throw
Rex Grossman	2003	3	72	60	BUST (but did manage 1 Super Bowl loss)
Paxton Lynch	2016	2	83	4	BUST (at least so far)
Johnny Manziel	2014	2	35	7	BUST with terrible work ethic & decision-making
Michael Vick	2001	2	113	133	4 Pro Bowls; known for rushing ability and dogfighting
JaMarcus Russell	2007	1	66	18	BUST with terrible work ethic
Patrick Mahomes	2017	1	35	0	?????
Jake Locker	2011	0	66	27	BUST
Aaron Rodgers	2005	0	16	313	sat first 3 years; 1 Super Bowl win, 6 Pro Bowls & 2 MVP's
Brady Quinn	2007	0	8	12	BUST
Philip Rivers	2004	0	8	342	sat first 2 years; 7 Pro Bowls
Chad Pennington	2000	0	5	102	sat first 2 years; big 2002 but injuries derailed career
JP Losman	2004	0	5	33	BUST
Jason Campbell	2005	0	0	87	meh
Carson Palmer	2003	0	0	294	3 Pro Bowls; early-career injury prevented even more

 

There's some hope for Mahomes in looking at the group of rookie QB's who didn't play/barely played. Some of the top 10 QB's amongst this group (Rodgers, Rivers, Palmer, Vick). A couple of average-to good players (Penningon & Campbell). It's almost like it is better to have sat out for all of your rookie year, or started 16 games. Eli and Ben of course did neither and have 2 Super Bowls each. But the busts are less frequent amongst the zero or 16-game starters. Anyways, just figured I'd share...

 

[South Carolina 603]

9 hours ago, Corleone said:

As we know, Patrick Mahomes sat almost his entire rookie season (starting only in the season finale, with KC resting starters). Will having sat on the bench to soak up the NFL game under a vet help him going forward? Who knows for sure, but I took a look at every 1st round QB drafted this century (2000--2017).

 

Player	Rookie Season	Rookie Starts	Rookie Pass Attempts	Career TD Passes	Notes
Andrew Luck	2012	16	627	132	will shoulder prevent greatness?
Sam Bradford	2010	16	590	101	keeps getting injured
Jameis Winston	2015	16	535	69	1 Pro Bowl; jury still out
Cam Newton	2011	16	517	158	1 Super Bowl loss; 1 MVP & 3 Pro Bowls
Ryan Tannehill	2012	16	484	106	meh
David Carr	2002	16	444	65	BUST (that offensive line killed him)
Matt Ryan	2008	16	434	260	1 Super Bowl loss; 1 MVP & 4 Pro Bowls
Joe Flacco	2008	16	428	200	1 Super Bowl win
Brandon Weeden	2012	15	517	31	BUST (29-year old rookies aren't a good idea)
Robert Griffin III	2012	15	393	42	1 Pro Bowl; injuries derailed career, so is he a true bust?
Mark Sanchez	2009	15	364	86	BUST (and the butt fumble)
Blaine Gabbert	2011	14	413	44	BUST
Blake Bortles	2014	13	475	90	Bust? Well, a question mark at best
Byron Leftwich	2003	13	418	58	BUST
Vince Young	2006	13	357	46	BUST (somehow had 2 Pro Bowls)
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	13	295	329	2 Super Bowl wins; 6 Pro Bowls
Joey Harrington	2002	12	429	79	BUST
Teddy Bridgewater	2014	12	402	28	1 Pro Bowl; okay and then major injury
Marcus Mariota	2015	12	370	58	regressed in third season
Mitch Trubisky	2017	12	330	7	not very impressive yet
Matt Leinart	2006	11	377	15	BUST
Matthew Stafford	2009	10	377	216	1 Pro Bowl
EJ Manuel	2013	10	306	20	BUST
Christian Ponder	2011	10	291	38	BUST
Josh Freeman	2009	9	290	81	BUST
Kyle Boller	2003	9	224	48	BUST
Jared Goff	2016	7	205	33	terrible rookie year (Fisher) but big second year (McVay)
Eli Manning	2004	7	197	339	2 Super Bowl wins & 4 Pro Bowls
Alex Smith	2005	7	165	183	3 Pro Bowls
DeShaun Watson	2017	6	204	19	on way to possible monster season before injury
Patrick Ramsey	2002	5	227	35	BUST
Jay Cutler	2006	5	137	227	1 Pro Bowl; million-dollar arm, 10-cent desire?
Tim Tebow	2010	3	82	17	BUST who (almost) everyone knew couldn't throw
Rex Grossman	2003	3	72	60	BUST (but did manage 1 Super Bowl loss)
Paxton Lynch	2016	2	83	4	BUST (at least so far)
Johnny Manziel	2014	2	35	7	BUST with terrible work ethic & decision-making
Michael Vick	2001	2	113	133	4 Pro Bowls; known for rushing ability and dogfighting
JaMarcus Russell	2007	1	66	18	BUST with terrible work ethic
Patrick Mahomes	2017	1	35	0	?????
Jake Locker	2011	0	66	27	BUST
Aaron Rodgers	2005	0	16	313	sat first 3 years; 1 Super Bowl win, 6 Pro Bowls & 2 MVP's
Brady Quinn	2007	0	8	12	BUST
Philip Rivers	2004	0	8	342	sat first 2 years; 7 Pro Bowls
Chad Pennington	2000	0	5	102	sat first 2 years; big 2002 but injuries derailed career
JP Losman	2004	0	5	33	BUST
Jason Campbell	2005	0	0	87	meh
Carson Palmer	2003	0	0	294	3 Pro Bowls; early-career injury prevented even more

 

There's some hope for Mahomes in looking at the group of rookie QB's who didn't play/barely played. Some of the top 10 QB's amongst this group (Rodgers, Rivers, Palmer, Vick). A couple of average-to good players (Penningon & Campbell). It's almost like it is better to have sat out for all of your rookie year, or started 16 games. Eli and Ben of course did neither and have 2 Super Bowls each. But the busts are less frequent amongst the zero or 16-game starters. Anyways, just figured I'd share...

 

 

That list doesn't tell anything. You either got it or you don't. Its that simple in the NFL. 

[Corleone 1,961]

1 hour ago, South Carolina said:

 

That list doesn't tell anything. You either got it or you don't. Its that simple in the NFL. 

 

Point to me the part where I said that this list guarantees anything for Mahomes? Or any QB?

 

If you don't get anything from the list, then don't look at it again. And since you know that it's "you either got it or you don't", you should just become an NFL general manager. The NFL is that simple, as you've got it all figured out.

[lolcopter 7,782]

I’m triggered by how that list isn’t ordered in any discernible fashion

 

edit: oh, rookie starts. I guess I’m the idiot

[Impreza178 6,046]

8 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 I guess I’m the idiot

 

That only took how many years to admit? 

[Corleone 1,961]

24 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

I’m triggered by how that list isn’t ordered in any discernible fashion

 

edit: oh, rookie starts. I guess I’m the idiot

 

Yup rookie starts and then rookie pass attempts when tied in starts, I should have mentioned it though from the get-go. And I also notice I somehow deleted Carson Wentz. He should be the second name on the list, behind Luck. 

 

Player	Rookie Season	Rookie Starts	Rookie Pass Attempts	Career TD Passes	Notes
Carson Wentz	2016	16	607	49	1 Pro Bowl; was an MVP contender before injury this year

[devaster 4,358]

3 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

Point to me the part where I said that this list guarantees anything for Mahomes? Or any QB?

 

If you don't get anything from the list, then don't look at it again. And since you know that it's "you either got it or you don't", you should just become an NFL general manager. The NFL is that simple, as you've got it all figured out.

Nice gathering of data in that list. I think what it best describes is how difficult it is to play QB. Regardless if a QB starts as a rookie or not, they either have it or they don't. Such a difficult position to scout. And it doesn't help that a lot of lesser talents get pushed into the 1st round because teams are desperate for a QB. And then some great talents get pushed out of the 1st round because of the size/arm metrics NFL teams desire like Wilson and Brees.

 

Andrew Luck belongs in the blue names, but that shoulder injury could end his career.

 

RG3's injuries didn't derail his career as much as his play on the field did. Defenses caught up to him. And it didn't help that his play-style and body type appears to have made him more injury-prone than other QB's. He didn't last one full game in Cleveland before breaking something and missing most of the season. RG3 belongs in the bust category in my opinion. He was a one-year wonder and injuries and play on the field declined.

[South Carolina 603]

It's really a crap shoot drafting a QB. You just don't know until they do it. Every quarterback drafted "makes all the throws, has a cannon of an arm, is a true leader", etc. But as we've seen hundreds of times that means nothing. There may be 5 or more QB's drafted in the 1st round this year. How many will ever win a playoff game? 

[Corleone 1,961]

On 2/9/2018 at 11:15 AM, devaster said:

Nice gathering of data in that list. I think what it best describes is how difficult it is to play QB. Regardless if a QB starts as a rookie or not, they either have it or they don't. Such a difficult position to scout. And it doesn't help that a lot of lesser talents get pushed into the 1st round because teams are desperate for a QB. And then some great talents get pushed out of the 1st round because of the size/arm metrics NFL teams desire like Wilson and Brees.

 

Andrew Luck belongs in the blue names, but that shoulder injury could end his career.

 

RG3's injuries didn't derail his career as much as his play on the field did. Defenses caught up to him. And it didn't help that his play-style and body type appears to have made him more injury-prone than other QB's. He didn't last one full game in Cleveland before breaking something and missing most of the season. RG3 belongs in the bust category in my opinion. He was a one-year wonder and injuries and play on the field declined.

 

Agreed with many of your points. No matter what, it is easy to be a 1st round QB bust. As you mention, not every QB that goes in Round 1 should, and several that were worthy don't. I would have put Luck in the blue (Top 10) if he didn't have the shoulder injury that has derailed him. He may get back on track and easily be one of the best 1st round QB's this century, but right now, I felt it was too much of a question mark. And I can't disagree with anything you mention for RG3. I do wish we had a chance to see him without the rookie year injury...but he indeed was more injury-prone and likely would have gotten hurt anyways. And thinking about it, when you factor in all that the Redskins traded to move up and draft him, yeah, I guess I should put him in the red as a bust. 

[devaster 4,358]

4 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Agreed with many of your points. No matter what, it is easy to be a 1st round QB bust. As you mention, not every QB that goes in Round 1 should, and several that were worthy don't. I would have put Luck in the blue (Top 10) if he didn't have the shoulder injury that has derailed him. He may get back on track and easily be one of the best 1st round QB's this century, but right now, I felt it was too much of a question mark. And I can't disagree with anything you mention for RG3. I do wish we had a chance to see him without the rookie year injury...but he indeed was more injury-prone and likely would have gotten hurt anyways. And thinking about it, when you factor in all that the Redskins traded to move up and draft him, yeah, I guess I should put him in the red as a bust. 

My reasoning for Luck was similar to Carson Palmer's. Palmer has carried on his career since his major injury, but he has never been at that same level he was pre-injury. Pre-injury he looked like he could have been an elite QB. Since then he has been an average NFL starter. Luck was already borderline elite before his injuries. Those injuries may end up ending his career or not making him the same player he used to be. I guess both belong in the purple category probably.

[Corleone 1,961]

1 minute ago, devaster said:

My reasoning for Luck was similar to Carson Palmer's. Palmer has carried on his career since his major injury, but he has never been at that same level he was pre-injury. Pre-injury he looked like he could have been an elite QB. Since then he has been an average NFL starter. Luck was already borderline elite before his injuries. Those injuries may end up ending his career or not making him the same player he used to be. I guess both belong in the purple category probably.

 

I went with 10 for the blue, just because top 10 lists are fun. My thought is that while he could have been more, getting almost 300 passing TD's and 3 Pro Bowls, he has to be considered one of the top 10 1st round QB's from 2000--2017. 

[Corleone 1,961]

Here's another look at the 1st round QB's from 2000--2017.

--they are sorted by career TD passes.

--the Top WR/TE and Top RB's columns are the top guys from the team in the first year in which the QB reached 150 pass attempts (which is primarily rookie season itself,  or first season in which the QB began making starts). 

--the Pro Bowl columns are whether the players made the Pro Bowl in that season while playing with the QB.

--listing of blue are the Top 10 QB's in my opinion, while purple is middle-ground, and red is bust. 

 

QB	Career TD Passes	Top WR/TE for QB	WR/TE in Pro Bowl?	Top RB for QB	RB in Pro Bowl?
Philip Rivers	342	Antonio Gates - 924 yards	Yes	Tomlinson - 1815 yards	Yes
Eli Manning	339	Plaxico Burress - 1214 yards	No	Tiki Barber - 1518 yards	Yes
Ben Roethlisberger	329	Hines Ward - 1004 yards	Yes	Jerome Bettis - 941 yards	Yes
Aaron Rodgers	313	Jennings 1291 & Driver 1012	No	Ryan Grant - 1203 yards	No
Carson Palmer	294	Chad Johnson - 1432 yards	Yes	Rudi Johnson - 1458 yards	No
Matt Ryan	260	Roddy White - 1382 yards	Yes	Michael Turner - 1699 yards	Yes
Jay Cutler	227	Brandon Marshall - 1325 yards	No	Travis Henry - 691 yards	No
Matthew Stafford	216	Calvin Johnson - 984 yards	No	Kevin Smith - 747 yards	No
Joe Flacco	200	Derrick Mason - 1037 yards	No	LeRon McClain - 902 yards	Yes
Alex Smith	183	Brandon Lloyd - 733 yards	No	Frank Gore - 608 yards	No
Cam Newton	158	Steve Smith - 1394 yards	Yes	DeAngelo Williams - 836 yards	No
Michael Vick	133	Brian Finneran - 838 yards	No	Warrick Dunn - 927 yards	No
Andrew Luck	132	Reggie Wayne - 1355 yards	Yes	Vick Ballard - 814 yards	No
Ryan Tannehill	106	Brian Hartline - 1083 yards	No	Reggie Bush - 986 yards	No
Chad Pennington	102	Laverneus Coles - 1264 yards	No	Curtis Martin - 1094 yards	No
Sam Bradford	101	Danny Amendola - 689 yards	No	Steven Jackson - 1241 yards	Yes
Blake Bortles	90	Allen Hurns - 677 yards	No	Denard Robinson - 582 yards	No
Jason Campbell	87	Santana Moss - 790 yards	No	Ladell Betts - 1154 yards	No
Mark Sanchez	86	Jerricho Cotchery - 821 yards	No	Thomas Jones - 1402 yards	No
Josh Freeman	81	Kellen Winslow - 884 yards	No	Cadillac Williams - 823 yards	No
Joey Harrington	79	Bill Schroeder - 595 yards	No	James Stewart - 1021 yards	No
Jameis Winston	69	Mike Evans - 1206 yards	No	Doug Martin - 1402 yards	Yes
David Carr	65	Corey Bradford - 697 yards	No	Jonathan Wells - 529 yards	No
Rex Grossman	60	David Terrell - 699 yards	No	Thomas Jones - 948 yards	No
Marcus Mariota	58	Delanie Walker - 1088 yards	Yes	Antonio Andrews - 520 yards	No
Byron Leftwich	58	Jimmy Smith - 805 yards	No	Fred Taylor - 1572 yards	No
Carson Wentz	49	Zach Ertz - 816 yards	No	Ryan Matthews - 661 yards	No
Kyle Boller	48	Todd Heap - 693 yards	Yes	Jamal Lewis - 2066 yards	Yes
Vince Young	46	Drew Bennett - 737 yards	No	Travis Henry - 1211 yards	No
Blaine Gabbert	44	Mercedes Lewis - 460 yards	No	Maurice Jones-Drew - 1606 yards	Yes
Robert Griffin III	42	Pierre Garçon - 633 yards	No	Alfred Morris - 1613 yards	No
Christian Ponder	38	Percy Harvin - 967 yards	No	Adrian Peterson - 970 yards	No
Patrick Ramsey	35	Rod Gardner - 1006 yards	No	Stephen Davis - 820 yards	No
Jared Goff	33	Kenny Britt - 1002 yards	No	Todd Gurley - 885 yards	No
JP Losman	33	Eric Moulds - 816 yards	No	Willis McGahee - 1247 yards	No
Brandon Weeden	31	Josh Gordon - 805 yards	No	Trent Richardson - 950 yards	No
Teddy Bridgewater	28	Greg Jennings - 742 yards	No	Matt Asiata - 570 yards	No
Jake Locker	27	Nate Washington - 746 yards	No	Chris Johnson - 1243 yards	No
EJ Manuel	20	Scott Chandler - 655 yards	No	CJ Spiller - 933 yards	No
Deshaun Watson	19	DeAndre Hopkins - 1378 yards	Yes	Lamar Miller - 888 yards	No
JaMarcus Russell	18	Zach Miller - 778 yards	No	Justin Vargas - 853 yards	No
Tim Tebow	17	Eric Decker - 612 yards	No	Willis McGahee - 1199 yards	Yes
Matt Leinart	15	Anquan Boldin - 1203 yards	Yes	Edgerrin James - 1159 yards	No
Brady Quinn	12	Mohamed Massaquoi - 624 yards	No	Jerome Harrison - 862 yards	No
Mitch Trubisky	7	Kendall Wright - 614 yards	No	Jordan Howard - 1122 yards	No
Johnny Manziel	7	Gary Barnidge - 1043 yards	Yes	Isaiah Crowell - 706 yards	No
Paxton Lynch	4	Demaryius Thomas - 949 yards	No	CJ Anderson - 1007 yards	No
Patrick Mahomes	0	??	??	??	??

 

The 1st round QB's who have gone on to have the best careers, by and large had the best WR/TE/RB talent around them. Look at the QB's in blue. Most had Pro Bowl/Hall of Fame caliber weapons right from the start of their careers. In many of the cases where the QB's WR/TE/RB isn't listed as a Pro Bowler, they were a Pro Bowler the very next season (for example, Stafford with Calvin Johnson, and also Eli Manning had Jeremy Shockey as a Pro Bowl TE his second season). Aaron Rodgers didn't have Pro Bowlers, but he's the only one who had two 1000 WR's to work with. The two QB's who I'd say are #9 and #10 on the blue list are Michael Vick and Joe Flacco...and they're the ones with the least talent (and Vick's prowess was always tied to his running ability as is).

 

Looking at the purple QB's, Andrew Luck may be the best chance to be a blue and he too had a Pro Bowler (and Wayne will probably be a HOF'er someday). It looks like Alex Smith didn't have a lot around him as a rookie, but Frank Gore was a Pro Bowler with over 2000 combined yards the next season. Jay Cutler had Brandon Marshall as a Pro Bowler in the next season as well. Of the younger QB's, Carson Wentz had Zach Ertz as a Pro Bowler this year. DeShaun Watson had Hopkins to throw to. Winston & Mariota both have had Pro Bowl weapons. 

 

The red QB's are the busts. Compare the weapons they had to blue and purple. It's pretty ugly. The majority of busts had a lot of mediocrity around them. Even in cases of 1000 yard seasons, we can look at those players and recognize many were not game-changers. One could say, well they had bust QB's that couldn't make them better...but many of those WR/TE/RB's didn't go on to do much in their careers regardless. There are some exceptions. Matt Leinart had excellent weapons...Pro Bowler Boldin as a rookie, and Pro Bowler Larry Fitzgerald in his second year. But he still busted. And Kyle Boller also had Pro Bowlers in the rushing and passing game, though Todd Heap is not exactly someone to go crazy over. Nonetheless, Leinart and Boller are exceptions to the bust norm. Also, having a Pro Bowl-caliber WR or TE seems more useful than a Pro Bowl-caliber RB (not shocking). Some of the bust QB's had huge RB seasons to help them in either year 1 or year 2, but they still stunk.

 

Is this all a case of the QB's being so talented that they make the WR's into Pro Bowlers or top-notch players? Well, many of these WR's were Pro Bowlers before the rookie QB's were even in the NFL. Could there be something to a rookie QB having a great WR (or TE) and that helps elevate the rookie QB right from the start, where they go on to develop more confidence and have better NFL careers than their counterparts? I think there could be something to that.

 

In a way, some of this is a chicken or an egg situation. You can't prove anything for X quarterback going forward from this list. Some players will be good no matter what, and some will bust no matter what. But I'd say it would be pretty smart for teams to get their rookie QB's a star WR or TE from day 1, if they want to give them the best possible chance to succeed (easier said than done). With all that said, how does this relate to Patrick Mahomes? He's on a team with a Pro Bowl RB, WR and TE, in Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Will they be Pro Bowlers in 2018? We don't know. But I feel that history shows having elite talent like Hunt/Hill/Kelce, gives Mahomes a leg up on rookie QB's thrown into the fire without a good supporting cast. Looking at history (while recognizing that history doesn't prove anything for an individual situation) gives me that much more confidence that Mahomes will be able to get it done. 

 

[mjb03003 1,974]

The Chiefs are reportedly adding Sammy Watkins to Mahomes' arsenal of weapons...

 

Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt

 

BOOM goes Mahomes' ADP! Dynasty gold.

[dashoe 6,462]

18 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

The Chiefs are reportedly adding Sammy Watkins to Mahomes' arsenal of weapons...

 

Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt

 

BOOM goes Mahomes' ADP! Dynasty gold.

 

 

I'm not a big believer in his value as a 1st year starter for 2018 in an Andy reid offense but i expect in 2019 after learning how to run the offense smoothly with his pass catchers he is going to make a massive 2nd yr starter leap as  a QB. 

What i'm really betting on for 2018 he heavily targets Kelce and Hunt(assuming Hunt stays in on passing downs too)

[Mr2Saint 161]

2 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

The Chiefs are reportedly adding Sammy Watkins to Mahomes' arsenal of weapons...

 

Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt

 

BOOM goes Mahomes' ADP! Dynasty gold.

 

All in on Mahommes this year!

 

After seeing dual-threat Watson succeed last year in HOU, I don't see why Mahommes can't produce at a similar rate with better weapons at his disposal. His dynasty potential and outlook is stronger than almost any QB.

[dashoe 6,462]

17 minutes ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

All in on Mahommes this year!

 

After seeing dual-threat Watson succeed last year in HOU, I don't see why Mahommes can't produce at a similar rate with better weapons at his disposal. His dynasty potential and outlook is stronger than almost any QB.

 

that's not a good premise to base your decision making on.  Mahommes with better weapons  should be = to or >  than dual threat watson?

 

1. Houston adapted their ball control offense to watsons playing stype so they went spread offense with a bunch of option plays, shotgun formations, etc

2. KC runs a heavy west coast style offense with some Reid wrinkles.

 

spread option is alot easier for a 1st year QB to run effectively and the wco takes 3-4 years to learn properly.

The question is will mahommes pick up enough of the wco to run it smoothly and produce to Reids satisfaction or will Reid need to add more spread style schemes to facilitate his young QB?

[Mr2Saint 161]

3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

that's not a good premise to base your decision making on.  Mahommes with better weapons  should be = to or >  than dual threat watson?

 

1. Houston adapted their ball control offense to watsons playing stype so they went spread offense with a bunch of option plays, shotgun formations, etc

2. KC runs a heavy west coast style offense with some Reid wrinkles.

 

spread option is alot easier for a 1st year QB to run effectively and the wco takes 3-4 years to learn properly.

The question is will mahommes pick up enough of the wco to run it smoothly and produce to Reids satisfaction or will Reid need to add more spread style schemes to facilitate his young QB?

 

Mahommes is a dual threat QB - that's common knowledge. And who's to say KC doesn't modify their playbook/system to cater to Mahommes' strengths? I don't see KC running the same offense in '18 that they ran with Smith in '17. Mahommes and Smith are two completely different QBs.

[dashoe 6,462]

 

m

[dashoe 6,462]

14 minutes ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

Mahommes is a dual threat QB - that's common knowledge. And who's to say KC doesn't modify their playbook/system to cater to Mahommes' strengths? I don't see KC running the same offense in '18 that they ran with Smith in '17. Mahommes and Smith are two completely different QBs.

 

It doesnt matter who the QB is the wco is the wco offense and you have to master the fundamentals to run it. You do realize who the HC is correct? Do yo really think Reid is going to abandon his ginormous a$$ed plastic playsheet to accomodate his rookie QB? 

Reid has always runs an wco offense. Maybe he modifies it the way he did for Vick but Mahommes is not a running threat like Vick, probably closest to McNabb.  Either way as the apparent franchise QB Mahommes is going to have to learn the wco as long as Reid is the HC. So dont expect him to play like a stud putting up hysterical stats as a 1st yr starter.  Expect for him to have some learning pains as he looks like a stud in one game and like a rookie in the next

 

[Mr2Saint 161]

25 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

It doesnt matter who the QB is the wco is the wco offense and you have to master the fundamentals to run it. You do realize who the HC is correct? Do yo really think Reid is going to abandon his ginormous a$$ed plastic playsheet to accomodate his rookie QB? 

Reid has always runs an wco offense. Maybe he modifies it the way he did for Vick but Mahommes is not a running threat like Vick, probably closest to McNabb.  Either way as the apparent franchise QB Mahommes is going to have to learn the wco as long as Reid is the HC. So dont expect him to play like a stud putting up hysterical stats as a 1st yr starter.  Expect for him to have some learning pains as he looks like a stud in one game and like a rookie in the next

 

 

Go watch more tape. Mahommes is a star.

[dashoe 6,462]

4 minutes ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

Go watch more tape. Mahommes is a star.

 

 He could be a savant for all I know but I learned a long time ago don't place talent over fit, system and utilization in the NFL 

[Mr2Saint 161]

7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 He could be a savant for all I know but I learned a long time ago don't place talent over fit, system and utilization in the NFL 

 

Only time will tell, buddy. Let's watch and enjoy.

[youngrice 1,303]

13 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

The Chiefs are reportedly adding Sammy Watkins to Mahomes' arsenal of weapons...

 

Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt

 

BOOM goes Mahomes' ADP! Dynasty gold.

Really have to feel for Alex Smith.  Gets run out of SF once they have a Super Bowl caliber team around him.  Spends 5 years in KC, 4 of which they have very limited skill position talent for him to throw to.  Now they are stacked and he gets shown the door.  If Mahomes doesn't produce with these weapons KC is going to look really bad.

[joshua18 7,028]

On 3/13/2018 at 11:27 PM, youngrice said:

Really have to feel for Alex Smith.  Gets run out of SF once they have a Super Bowl caliber team around him.  Spends 5 years in KC, 4 of which they have very limited skill position talent for him to throw to.  Now they are stacked and he gets shown the door.  If Mahomes doesn't produce with these weapons KC is going to look really bad.

 

They could afford to pay Watkins $16 million because they're not paying Smith $17 million.