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BigPapi44

Mike Moustakas 2018 Outlook

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9 minutes ago, BayofPuigs said:

 

 Even the Dodgers and Yankees had to hit on prospects before they got good. Dodgers continue to fail in the playoffs while teams like the Marlins have won, Astros have won before them. I honestly wish that the MLB was more like dynasty fantasy baseball, the rebuilding teams have no chance like they have now but at least you look at their team and see them being absolutely loaded with A+ prospects under long term control. Right now the top teams are drafting better prospects than many teams as well as offering fantastic contracts to their best players like Kershaw

 

Yeah for sure, some teams are going to be better at mining prospects than others, and I'm not saying the top teams have "bought" their way there.  Building with prospects is smart, but it's not good for the fans or the game when 70% of the teams in the league are actively not trying to win.  The free agents aren't being signed because the few competing teams already have their rosters filled, and the rest of the league sees spending money as a "waste" when they can run out a lineup of prospects, lose a bunch of games, and then draft some more to hopefully compete one day in the future.

 

If there was a salary floor you'd see a lot more open competition.  Just because the Dodgers / Yankees / Cubs / Red Sox look better on paper, it doesn't mean other teams couldn't beat them if they actually got off their wallets and brought in some real MLB players.

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11 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

 

I would rather see a different strategy taken or none at all than create a rule that hurts players earnings value.  I don't have much sympathy for teams who won't/can't spend. You want to play with the big boys, spend some money.

 

 

But it did help his earning value, it gave him $17.4 MM for one season... he just over estimated his earning value and turned his nose up to that deal.

 

This is a guy that has hit 25 HR once and owns a career 251 Avg with 730 OPS... he just hasn't been that good... he's still living off the fact he was the #2 overall pick 11 years ago... $17.4 MM for a player like that seems like a great system, but the player made a terrible decision. 

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13 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Pretty sure a few are, but Arrieta I'm 95% sure is. 

I think from that list its just Arrieta and Holland

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Moustakas was in a tough spot, I mean he really misread the market - but I cant believe that if he throws it out there to every MLB team, I will play 1 year for $10 million?  That he couldnt of gotten takers and thus a better deal than this.  

 

From Pads perspective honestly would of rather had Moose than Hoz...

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1 minute ago, StevieStats said:

But it did help his earning value, it gave him $17.4 MM for one season... he just over estimated his earning value and turned his nose up to that deal.

 

This is a guy that has hit 25 HR once and owns a career 251 Avg with 730 OPS... he just hasn't been that good... he's still living off the fact he was the #2 overall pick 11 years ago... $17.4 MM for a player like that seems like a great system, but the player made a terrible decision. 

 

You either get 1 year 17 M or a team gets docked a top pick for signing you. It's silly. Just let them make what they're worth on the open market.

 

Whether he has been or will be good has nothing to do with it. I am not saying he should or shouldn't get a big contract only that he should be able to operate in a free market as a true free agent instead of a having a first round pick hanging around his neck.

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4 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

But it did help his earning value, it gave him $17.4 MM for one season... he just over estimated his earning value and turned his nose up to that deal.

 

This is a guy that has hit 25 HR once and owns a career 251 Avg with 730 OPS... he just hasn't been that good... he's still living off the fact he was the #2 overall pick 11 years ago... $17.4 MM for a player like that seems like a great system, but the player made a terrible decision. 

 

I love using career stats to justify a players value now. 


2015, 2016, 2017 Moustakas #'s

Year Age G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2015 26 147 614 73 156 34 1 22 82 43 76 0.284 0.348 0.470 0.817 119
2016 27 27 113 12 25 6 0 7 13 9 13 0.240 0.301 0.500 0.801 110
2017 28 148 598 75 151 24 0 38 85 34 94 0.272 0.314 0.521 0.835 116

 

 

His 2016 season was cut short to injury. Even with the down #'s in BA/OBP, he was on pace for 37 homers and only 70 k. He just turned 28. Very possible we haven't seen the best he has to offer. 

 

Yeah, his career #'s aren't that great. The last 3 year averages? .275 BA, .496 SLG, .825 OPS. HIs poor OBP/BB rate hinder him somewhat. He's also averaged over 30 HR per 162 (easily) to go with a .275 BA. No, they aren't hall of fame worthy, but that's good. Maybe he's a late bloomer, who knows, but his 3 year sample is quite solid. Yes, he overestimated his earning potential. but man, 5.5 million? What a crazy low total for him. And, again, at his age it's very possible he can grow into some better #'s. Some guys don't hit their peak until they're 30ish. 


Josh Donaldson, through his age 28 season, had only 1 25 HR season on his resume. Same as Moustakas at the same age. He had 63 HR in 1690 plate appearances (moustakas has 67 thru 1325 PA his last 3 seasons). Donaldson had 313 K to 168 BB, Mous has 183 K to 86 BB. Donaldson had batted .268 up to that point in his career, Mous has pulled down .275 his last 3 seasons... Even if you count Donaldsons 3 full years thru his age 28 season, he's still only a .270 hitter. 

I'm not saying Mous is gonna be Donaldson, but Moustakas has shown signs that he could be an excellent hitter. He could also stay plain ol moose, and even if he does, that has some solid value. 


I think you can, pretty safely, chalk him up for a floor of 30 HR and a .270 BA. There's value in that. 

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1 minute ago, fletch44 said:

You either get 1 year 17 M or a team gets docked a top pick for signing you. It's silly. Just let them make what they're worth on the open market.

 

Whether he has been or will be good has nothing to do with it. I am not saying he should or shouldn't get a big contract only that he should be able to operate in a free market as a true free agent instead of a having a first round pick hanging around his neck.

 

I think instead of the team signing a FA who rejected a QO losing a pick or money, the team who lost the FA should just get a comp pick at the end of the first. You lose nothing by signing the guy. Obviously, keep rules where you can only offer so many of thsoe contracts and what not (even though you wouldn't wanna just pass around QO to every guy who is gonna walk). 

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Just now, sngehl01 said:

 

I think instead of the team signing a FA who rejected a QO losing a pick or money, the team who lost the FA should just get a comp pick at the end of the first. You lose nothing by signing the guy. Obviously, keep rules where you can only offer so many of thsoe contracts and what not (even though you wouldn't wanna just pass around QO to every guy who is gonna walk). 

 

This would make a lot more sense. Give the team that loses the FA a sandwich pick and call it a day.

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3 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I love using career stats to justify a players value now. 


2015, 2016, 2017 Moustakas #'s

Year Age G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2015 26 147 614 73 156 34 1 22 82 43 76 0.284 0.348 0.470 0.817 119
2016 27 27 113 12 25 6 0 7 13 9 13 0.240 0.301 0.500 0.801 110
2017 28 148 598 75 151 24 0 38 85 34 94 0.272 0.314 0.521 0.835 116

 

 

His 2016 season was cut short to injury. Even with the down #'s in BA/OBP, he was on pace for 37 homers and only 70 k. He just turned 28. Very possible we haven't seen the best he has to offer. 

 

Yeah, his career #'s aren't that great. The last 3 year averages? .275 BA, .496 SLG, .825 OPS. HIs poor OBP/BB rate hinder him somewhat. He's also averaged over 30 HR per 162 (easily) to go with a .275 BA. No, they aren't hall of fame worthy, but that's good. Maybe he's a late bloomer, who knows, but his 3 year sample is quite solid. Yes, he overestimated his earning potential. but man, 5.5 million? What a crazy low total for him. And, again, at his age it's very possible he can grow into some better #'s. Some guys don't hit their peak until they're 30ish. 


Josh Donaldson, through his age 28 season, had only 1 25 HR season on his resume. Same as Moustakas at the same age. He had 63 HR in 1690 plate appearances (moustakas has 67 thru 1325 PA his last 3 seasons). Donaldson had 313 K to 168 BB, Mous has 183 K to 86 BB. Donaldson had batted .268 up to that point in his career, Mous has pulled down .275 his last 3 seasons... Even if you count Donaldsons 3 full years thru his age 28 season, he's still only a .270 hitter. 

I'm not saying Mous is gonna be Donaldson, but Moustakas has shown signs that he could be an excellent hitter. He could also stay plain ol moose, and even if he does, that has some solid value. 


I think you can, pretty safely, chalk him up for a floor of 30 HR and a .270 BA. There's value in that. 

There's not much difference between Moose and Logan Morrison in terms of production. And LoMo signed for 1 year $6.5, where is this outrage for him?

 

You scoff at his career but then you extrapolate his stats from 27 games in 2016? Come on... :rolleyes:

 

The fact is Moose has been poor to mediocre up until his 1 good season last year. That 1 good year got him an offer of $17.4 MM for 1 season. He screwed up and turned it down.  That's not a broken system.

 

If Moose takes the $17.4 MM QO, they can't hit it with it again, it's similar to franchise tag but not as punative. So take the $17.4 and you hit the unrestricted open market the following year. The system works, the player was just too dumb to work it correctly. 

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1 minute ago, StevieStats said:

There's not much difference between Moose and Logan Morrison in terms of production. And LoMo signed for 1 year $6.5, where is this outrage for him?

 

You scoff at his career but then you extrapolate his stats from 27 games in 2016? Come on... :rolleyes:

 

The fact is Moose has been poor to mediocre up until his 1 good season last year. That 1 good year got him an offer of $17.4 MM for 1 season. He screwed up and turned it down.  That's not a broken system.

 

If Moose takes the $17.4 MM QO, they can't hit it with it again, it's similar to franchise tag but not as punative. So take the $17.4 and you hit the unrestricted open market the following year. The system works, the player was just too dumb to work it correctly. 

 

LoMo is 30 and had a season like that once. The 2 years before he hit sub .240 with 17 and 14 homers. 

 

I'm not just extrapolating 2016 out of context, but comparing it to what he did the year before and year after. His production rate in that small sample was right in line with what he did in 2015 and 2017, he was not much better or worse. Just showing he's been pretty steady for 3 years. I bet no GM's care that Mous hit .233 with 12 homers in 2013 at the ripe ol age of 24. 5 years ago isn't really relevant today. 

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14 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I love using career stats to justify a players value now. 


2015, 2016, 2017 Moustakas #'s

Year Age G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2015 26 147 614 73 156 34 1 22 82 43 76 0.284 0.348 0.470 0.817 119
2016 27 27 113 12 25 6 0 7 13 9 13 0.240 0.301 0.500 0.801 110
2017 28 148 598 75 151 24 0 38 85 34 94 0.272 0.314 0.521 0.835 116

 

 

His 2016 season was cut short to injury. Even with the down #'s in BA/OBP, he was on pace for 37 homers and only 70 k. He just turned 28. Very possible we haven't seen the best he has to offer. 

 

Yeah, his career #'s aren't that great. The last 3 year averages? .275 BA, .496 SLG, .825 OPS. HIs poor OBP/BB rate hinder him somewhat. He's also averaged over 30 HR per 162 (easily) to go with a .275 BA. No, they aren't hall of fame worthy, but that's good. Maybe he's a late bloomer, who knows, but his 3 year sample is quite solid. Yes, he overestimated his earning potential. but man, 5.5 million? What a crazy low total for him. And, again, at his age it's very possible he can grow into some better #'s. Some guys don't hit their peak until they're 30ish. 


Josh Donaldson, through his age 28 season, had only 1 25 HR season on his resume. Same as Moustakas at the same age. He had 63 HR in 1690 plate appearances (moustakas has 67 thru 1325 PA his last 3 seasons). Donaldson had 313 K to 168 BB, Mous has 183 K to 86 BB. Donaldson had batted .268 up to that point in his career, Mous has pulled down .275 his last 3 seasons... Even if you count Donaldsons 3 full years thru his age 28 season, he's still only a .270 hitter. 

I'm not saying Mous is gonna be Donaldson, but Moustakas has shown signs that he could be an excellent hitter. He could also stay plain ol moose, and even if he does, that has some solid value. 


I think you can, pretty safely, chalk him up for a floor of 30 HR and a .270 BA. There's value in that. 

 

Donaldson has also always been an elite defender.  He posted 32 DRS in 2013 & '14 combined.  He was worth 14.2 fWAR those 2 seasons.

 

Mous, on the other hand, has -8 DRS in the last 5 seasons, since putting up 14 in 2012.  Mous' fWAR the last 5 seasons is 8.3.

 

Donaldson has almost always been a significantly better player than Moustakas.

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1 minute ago, 89Topps said:

 

Donaldson has also always been an elite defender.  He posted 32 DRS in 2013 & '14 combined.  He was worth 14.2 fWAR those 2 seasons.

 

Mous, on the other hand, has -8 DRS in the last 5 seasons, since putting up 14 in 2012.  Mous' fWAR the last 5 seasons is 8.3.

 

Donaldson has almost always been a significantly better player than Moustakas.

 

I was more or less talking about his offensive "prowess" for lack of a better term. 

I do not think for a second that Mous now = Donaldson when he was 28. I am simply saying that Moustakas is a solid slugger with the potential to be a real + play in the middle of a lineup. NYY should have been all over this at 5.5 mil or better. 


Donaldson at 28/29 is a much better player than Moustakas now. But Moustakas offensive upside is still fairly lofty. He's been in the league so long and has been slow to put it together, but I think the ingredients for a nice cake are sitting on the counter here. 

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16 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

 

You either get 1 year 17 M or a team gets docked a top pick for signing you. It's silly. Just let them make what they're worth on the open market.

 

Whether he has been or will be good has nothing to do with it. I am not saying he should or shouldn't get a big contract only that he should be able to operate in a free market as a true free agent instead of a having a first round pick hanging around his neck.

If he took the 1 year $17.4 MM, he would not be able to get QO'd the next year and would hit the open market with no strings, no compensation just like you want. Again, this helps smaller market teams retain talent, the system also gave him a big payday but he rejected it. 

 

Moose made $5.6 MM in 2016, $8.7 MM in 2017, and was offered $17.4 MM in 2018 with the guarantee he'd hit unrestricted free agency the following year -- that's not a bad system restricting his earnings.  That's a player not working within the system effectively and doing something dumb.

 

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1 minute ago, StevieStats said:

If he took the 1 year $17.4 MM, he would not be able to get QO'd the next year and would hit the open market with no strings, no compensation just like you want. Again, this helps smaller market teams retain talent, the system also gave him a big payday but he rejected it. 

 

Moose made $5.6 MM in 2016, $8.7 MM in 2017, and was offered $17.4 MM in 2018 with the guarantee he'd hit unrestricted free agency the following year -- that's not a bad system restricting his earnings.  That's a player not working within the system effectively and doing something dumb.

 

I agree with all of this. Yeah, he misread the market, but I'm surprised it came down to this. Also, yeah, he did something dumb, but this is why players have agents. His... well... maybe also misread the market. 

 

I don't mind the QO system so much. Heck, the next CBA could say the player could counter the 1 year/$17.4m dollar offer with $17.4m/x years, where the player can choose a # of years he'd accept that contract at. If the team rejects, he's a FA with no strings attached. Obviously, there'd hvae to be stipulations so Moustakas doesn't say deal if it's a 22 year deal or something crazy. 

I think the QO system could use some polish is all. 

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The QO should remain in effect (rather than accept/reject ) if a player cannot get a contract in FA because teams are afraid of losing a draft pick.

Teams don't want to lose a high draft choice anymore.   Teams like the Royals would have been happy if Moose accepted the QO early on.

 

The Royals don't deserve to benefit by getting more than a $10m discount because the compensation system is broken.

Maybe getting the player back at a 25% discount from the original QO might work a bit better just for testing FA if MLB won't get rid of compensation picks.

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25 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I agree with all of this. Yeah, he misread the market, but I'm surprised it came down to this. Also, yeah, he did something dumb, but this is why players have agents. His... well... maybe also misread the market. 

 

I don't mind the QO system so much. Heck, the next CBA could say the player could counter the 1 year/$17.4m dollar offer with $17.4m/x years, where the player can choose a # of years he'd accept that contract at. If the team rejects, he's a FA with no strings attached. Obviously, there'd hvae to be stipulations so Moustakas doesn't say deal if it's a 22 year deal or something crazy. 

I think the QO system could use some polish is all. 

Right, it could fall on his agent too depending what he advised, maybe Moose ignored advice to accept the QO, we don't know, but I would love to find out. 

 

However, consider this, after receiving the QO, Moose and his agent had 10 days to negotiate with other teams to assess the market before making a decision to accept or reject the QO. Considering that, it's unfathomable to me a player and agent could screw this up as bad as they have, I really wonder what advice he was given and if he pushed against any advice.

 

KC is big time winners here, if Moose has a good year they will probably get a considerable return on a trade at the deadline. If he doesn't have good year they walk away for very little.

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39 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

If he took the 1 year $17.4 MM, he would not be able to get QO'd the next year and would hit the open market with no strings, no compensation just like you want. Again, this helps smaller market teams retain talent, the system also gave him a big payday but he rejected it. 

 

Moose made $5.6 MM in 2016, $8.7 MM in 2017, and was offered $17.4 MM in 2018 with the guarantee he'd hit unrestricted free agency the following year -- that's not a bad system restricting his earnings.  That's a player not working within the system effectively and doing something dumb.

 

 

He should fire Boras.

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4 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Right, it could fall on his agent too depending what he advised, maybe Moose ignored advice to accept the QO, we don't know, but I would love to find out. 

 

However, consider this, after receiving the QO, Moose and his agent had 10 days to negotiate with other teams to assess the market before making a decision to accept or reject the QO. Considering that, it's unfathomable to me a player and agent could screw this up as bad as they have, I really wonder what advice he was given and if he pushed against any advice.

 

KC is big time winners here, if Moose has a good year they will probably get a considerable return on a trade at the deadline. If he doesn't have good year they walk away for very little.

 

This reeks of a Boras decision.  Someone please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think a Boras client has ever accepted a QO.  Boras' MO is to take his players to market and go for the monster deal.   In this case Boras misread the market.

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4 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

This reeks of a Boras decision.  Someone please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think a Boras client has ever accepted a QO.  Boras' MO is to take his players to market and go for the monster deal.   In this case Boras misread the market.

 

I think you are going to see more players accept the QO in the future even Scott's clients.   

Boras clients have done very well in the past.  Owners finally getting smart.

$17.4m for one season is a lot of money in this environment.  I can see the owners wanting to lower this number in the future.

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34 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

This reeks of a Boras decision.  Someone please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think a Boras client has ever accepted a QO.  Boras' MO is to take his players to market and go for the monster deal.   In this case Boras misread the market.

Im sure they have?  Maybe...but there have been some blunders too, remember Morales that one year didnt accept SEA's offer and ended up not signing until June.  There was another one that year also but cant remember who it was. 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Why are you guys blaming Scott Boras ? 

Because he likely gave his client bad advice, and ultimately its on moose to listen, but Im sure he was pressured to do things like "set the market' or dont cave, and it ended up costing him.  

 

One of the issues with Boras as well is that he wont usually negotiate until its Free Agent time, not only did he screw him now, but curious what kind of long term deal in the midst of a good season the Royals and moose could of worked out.  I mean I would bet if you said to Royals last July, 4 for $75million - they would of gladly offered that. 

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6 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Im sure they have?  Maybe...but there have been some blunders too, remember Morales that one year didnt accept SEA's offer and ended up not signing until June.  There was another one that year also but cant remember who it was. 

 

 

Stephen Drew 

2 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Because he likely gave his client bad advice, and ultimately its on moose to listen, but Im sure he was pressured to do things like "set the market' or dont cave, and it ended up costing him.  

 

One of the issues with Boras as well is that he wont usually negotiate until its Free Agent time, not only did he screw him now, but curious what kind of long term deal in the midst of a good season the Royals and moose could of worked out.  I mean I would bet if you said to Royals last July, 4 for $75million - they would of gladly offered that. 

How can you be so sure he was pressured .... or is that your opinion?

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12 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Stephen Drew 

How can you be so sure he was pressured .... or is that your opinion?

Im sure nobody held a gun to his head and obviously you dont sign with Boras to sign early and get deals that are good for you and the club, its just not the types of deals that he does.  

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3 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

Boras better get some nerds on the payroll pronto. His livelihood is at stake here.

 

What an epic fail.

He has stat guys and has very vocal in using advanced stats in negotiations. I don't know how much other agents use them, but I'd be shocked if Boras isn't near the top. 

Moustakas should have taken the QO, but I don't think many agents recommend signing those. Gotta think that'll change going forward, but once he passed on the offer I'm guessing this is probably about as good as he was going to get. 

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