Wild Thing

Andrew Luck 2018 Outlook

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30 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Let me make it easier Lucks ADP is anywhere  from 100-110 depending on which site you check on what day. So there are plenty of players I would put on my bench  longer than your list that have flex upside but to humor you based on your list I would have zero hesitation adding today

Chris Thompson
Doug Martin
Cooper Kupp
Kelvin Benjamin

Allen Hurns
Tyler Eiffert

Corey Clement

Martavis Bryant
Jamison Crowder

 

I would do you one better I would draft Doyle  ADP 120 and  Ebron who  has an ADP of roughly 195 over Luck because I think the most valuable pass catcher on the Colts offense will be the TE and worth more than the QB :D

 

Now the QB's AFTER Luck could offer Top 10 potential on better offenses that will score are basically free are Goff-Mryan-Rivers-Carr-Winston-Mariotta-Dak-Dalton-Manning. These are guys I can start on day1, not waste a roster spot and get points.

 

Where are you getting Luck is a potential top3 from? Every starting NFL has the potential to be a top 3 so that's just pure hyperbole.

 

Luck  will eventually throw the ball to TY- Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers, Deon Cain and Reece Fountain

Aside from TY have any of those guys played a full season with Luck? The same Luck who hasnt played a game in over 500 days?

Where will all of Luck's TD passes come from TY?

You think somehow a QB who has yet to throw a NFL football in a full practice with the 1st team is going to lead a passing attack on Sep9 with a bunch of nondescript wr's and become a top3 QB? :lol:

 

Somehow attempting to rationalize Luck as a top 3 QB who should be drafted as a top 12 with a suspect group of pass catchers at this date is ludicrous.

 

If you're debating QB rankings, that's an entirely different argument. I'm simply stating that a QB with top 3 potential (whether you want to consider that QB Andrew Luck or Matt Ryan) is worth a shot in the 9th round.

 

As for his weapons, you could have said the same thing in 2014 when he put up 40 touchdowns. Who did he have then? He had Hilton, which is the same as this year, but who else? Reggie Wayne played 13 games and had 2 TOUCHDOWNS. Know who had 8 touchdowns? BOTH tight ends. Know what he has this year? TWO tight ends. I like how you conveniently left them out.

 

What about 2016 before he got hurt? He still had Hilton (again, same as this year) who had 6 touchdowns, but who else did he have? You guessed it. TWO tight ends. Dwayne Allen had 6, and I would argue Ebron is better than him. Doyle had 5. Andrew Luck was one of the most talented QB in the league before the injury (which I'm sure you'll disagree with, but he was probably the best QB prospect since Elway). He had the arm, the size, and the high IQ to be one of the best. If he makes it back to form, there's no reason to see why he can't put up numbers like he's shown he could do in the past.

 

Your argument is about his health is frankly a lazy take. If he's not healthy enough to see some action in the preseason, he won't be taken over guys like Ryan and Goff. Period. Most players don't draft until August, so we should have much more information to go off of by then, but debating his health now is pointless because neither of us really know.

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40 minutes ago, dashoe said:

"I will condense the point for you supply vs demand vs a QB who hasn't played a game in over 500 days but drafted as a top 12 when he really should be a waiver QB.  Then you can fill the rest in with current pass catching talent and let me know when he will actually get in full reps with that pass catching talent and produce as a 'league winning QB". There is alot of HOPE for LUCK in this thread."

 

At the point where Luck is being discussed, a considerable supply of RBs & WRs will have already been depleted. That list isn't very inspiring, although I do like Copper Kupp & several others. Later will be a Montgomery, Meredith, Ronald Jones perhaps, Chris Godwin. The breakout you're referring to, we're all looking for who those players might be. Quite frankly, aren't they just as likely to emerge from the later rounds? Those guys in the 8th-9th are guys that have done something but are back there for a reason(s). However, if you get to the 8th or 9th round and you don't like what you've done at say, WR, then Corey Davis may be the wiser move.     

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3 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

 

If you're debating QB rankings, that's an entirely different argument. I'm simply stating that a QB with top 3 potential (whether you want to consider that QB Andrew Luck or Matt Ryan) is worth a shot in the 9th round.

 

As for his weapons, you could have said the same thing in 2014 when he put up 40 touchdowns. Who did he have then? He had Hilton, which is the same as this year, but who else? Reggie Wayne played 13 games and had 2 TOUCHDOWNS. Know who had 8 touchdowns? BOTH tight ends. Know what he has this year? TWO tight ends. I like how you conveniently left them out.

 

What about 2016 before he got hurt? He still had Hilton (again, same as this year) who had 6 touchdowns, but who else did he have? You guessed it. TWO tight ends. Dwayne Allen had 6, and I would argue Ebron is better than him. Doyle had 5. Andrew Luck was one of the most talented QB in the league before the injury (which I'm sure you'll disagree with, but he was probably the best QB prospect since Elway). He had the arm, the size, and the high IQ to be one of the best. If he makes it back to form, there's no reason to see why he can't put up numbers like he's shown he could do in the past.

 

Your argument is about his health is frankly a lazy take. If he's not healthy enough to see some action in the preseason, he won't be taken over guys like Ryan and Goff. Period. Most players don't draft until August, so we should have much more information to go off of by then, but debating his health now is pointless because neither of us really know.

 

 

Yeah you don't read so well. . check again mate, i mentioned doyle and ebron  I quote:

"I would do you one better I would draft Doyle  ADP 120 and  Ebron who  has an ADP of roughly 195 over Luck because I think the most valuable pass catcher on the Colts offense will be the TE and worth more than the QB"

 

Dude you are citing 2014  and 2016 about a QB who hasnt played an NFL game in over 500 days and has yet to practice in full with a REAL NFL football. Luck is playing with a completely new HC and OC and playbook.  The way you are talking he's just going to step in on day1  zip those balls around and he and TY are headed to the pro bowl.

Your basis for a top3  finish and a 'league winning QB'  is complete hyperbole because even Bridgewater can finish in the top 3 and he is actually healthy and PRACTICING.

 

So yeah  I am stating that I think Luck is a complete WASTE of a draft pick in the 9th round and is waiver material by any measure.  listen if you take him in the last round in the draft then hey maybe why the the heck not right?  Drafting him in single digit rounds is pure wishing.:lol:

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7 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

At the point where Luck is being discussed, a considerable supply of RBs & WRs will have already been depleted. That list isn't very inspiring, although I do like Copper Kupp & several others. Later will be a Montgomery, Meredith, Ronald Jones perhaps, Chris Godwin. The breakout you're referring to, we're all looking for who those players might be. Quite frankly, aren't they just as likely to emerge from the later rounds? Those guys in the 8th-9th are guys that have done something but are back there for a reason(s). However, if you get to the 8th or 9th round and you don't like what you've done at say, WR, then Corey Davis may be the wiser move.     

 

 

yeah but those guys guys are healthy and practicing today, youre taking a QB in the 9th and he hasnt played a NFL game in 500 days and bypassing healthy QB's on better teams who are practicing and running the offense today. Your valuations are off not your personal view on Lucks potential but how you are valuing it today.

It's an ADP overreach based primarily on name value.

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Yeah you don't read so well. . check again mate, i mentioned doyle and ebron  I quote:

"I would do you one better I would draft Doyle  ADP 120 and  Ebron who  has an ADP of roughly 195 over Luck because I think the most valuable pass catcher on the Colts offense will be the TE and worth more than the QB"

 

Dude you are citing 2014  and 2016 about a QB who hasnt played an NFL game in over 500 days and has yet to practice in full with a REAL NFL football. Luck is playing with a completely new HC and OC and playbook.  The way you are talking he's just going to step in on day1  zip those balls around and he and TY are headed to the pro bowl.

Your basis for a top3  finish and a 'league winning QB'  is complete hyperbole because even Bridgewater can finish in the top 3 and he is actually healthy and PRACTICING.

 

So yeah  I am stating that I think Luck is a complete WASTE of a draft pick in the 9th round and is waiver material by any measure.  listen if you take him in the last round in the draft then hey maybe why the the heck not right?  Drafting him in single digit rounds is pure wishing.:lol:

 

You listed the players Luck would be throwing to, yet didn't include them. You mentioned them as "league winning flex plays that you would draft", but conveniently left them out of the grouping that Luck would be throwing to.

 

Again the health argument... we'll pick this point back up in August but I'm operating under the assumption he'll be healthy, like you do every other player when discussing them in June.

 

You're really reaching on this top 3 thing. Andrew Luck has done it before. It's really not a hard concept. When he's healthy (see, there's that assumption again), he is immensely more talented than most of the QB in the league and is a generational talent. Luck is the definition of a high risk, high reward player and that's what I'm looking for from rounds 8 on. Add to the fact that I most likely will have a hole at QB, and there will be plenty of them on the wire if he doesn't pan out, and I don't see the downside in taking him. Good luck taking Doug Martin and then cutting him in week two...

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28 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

 

You listed the players Luck would be throwing to, yet didn't include them. You mentioned them as "league winning flex plays that you would draft", but conveniently left them out of the grouping that Luck would be throwing to.

 

 

 

wtf? :wacko:

 

 

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If ur going to gamble, late Qb is not a bad spot. If U take luck in 9th or 10th, you still get another solid Qb in the 13th or 14th. Qb is so deep that if u gamble in late rounds, all you are giving up if it doesn't work out is a bit of depth or a low upside gamble at another spot. I wouldn't gamble with a early pick at Qb, but that late u don't lose much. All that said, I'm not sure gambling on luck is great until we see some preseason action. He seems to have some block on getting healthy. 

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I just heard a report today where Luck mentioned feeling in his hand and gripping the football issues. See this WAS NOT A SIMPLE Labral tear as advertised. I said he was either a pussy or it was worse Thats nerve damage. 

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On 6/13/2018 at 5:22 PM, Mattice1 said:

If ur going to gamble, late Qb is not a bad spot. If U take luck in 9th or 10th, you still get another solid Qb in the 13th or 14th. Qb is so deep that if u gamble in late rounds, all you are giving up if it doesn't work out is a bit of depth or a low upside gamble at another spot. I wouldn't gamble with a early pick at Qb, but that late u don't lose much. All that said, I'm not sure gambling on luck is great until we see some preseason action. He seems to have some block on getting healthy. 

 

depending on your leagues roster slots you are now allocating 2 spots for QB'. The only time i carry a second QB is before my QB bye week and during the playoffs. The other exception would be is if while steaming I picked up a stud and someone needs to trade for a QB.

I prefer to have that bench spot open for a potential wr/rb  or even te breakout

Edited by dashoe

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

depending on your leagues roster slots you are now allocating 2 spots for QB'. The only time i carry a second QB is before my QB bye week and during the playoffs. The other exception would be is if while steaming I picked up a stud and someone needs to trade for a QB.

I prefer to have that bench spot open for a potential wr/rb  or even te breakout

That's great to not start with 2 qbs. That said, u must be spending an early pick on Qb. Otherwise the streaming of QBs usually requires 2 QBs on the roster or constant waiver wire working for Qb. Either way, at some point during the season with a late pick at Qb1, u are carrying 2 QBs or u are starting a 8-10 ranked qb with a bad matchup once in a while. Late Qb draft means hedge,  early qb draft means no hedge.

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19 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

That's great to not start with 2 qbs. That said, u must be spending an early pick on Qb. Otherwise the streaming of QBs usually requires 2 QBs on the roster or constant waiver wire working for Qb. Either way, at some point during the season with a late pick at Qb1, u are carrying 2 QBs or u are starting a 8-10 ranked qb with a bad matchup once in a while. Late Qb draft means hedge,  early qb draft means no hedge.

 

Not sure how you figure that. if you go late QB  or stream you are not rostering 2QBs all u do is add and drop and ride whomever is hot.  Obviously you don't understand what late QB or streaming qb's means. There is no hedging which doesnt make much sense, it defeats the point of the strategy.  

Let me last season i took Palmer last round used him for 2 weeks dropped him picked up wentz used him until injured dropped him picked up rivers used him dropped picked up bortles and keenum for playoffs after dropping the rest of the lottery picks and  players off my bench who I was never going to use to win the title.

so never carried 2 QB's during season and never hedged the position. I just played matchups and picked who was hot. 

so the only point you made that's accurate is you work the wire as you should over the course of a season.

I don't win my leagues in the draft i win over the season working the wire for the difference making flex player or replacements of the draft busts.

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Not sure how you figure that. if you go late QB  or stream you are not rostering 2QBs all u do is add and drop and ride whomever is hot.  Obviously you don't understand what late QB or streaming qb's means. There is no hedging which doesnt make much sense, it defeats the point of the strategy.  

Let me last season i took Palmer last round used him for 2 weeks dropped him picked up wentz used him until injured dropped him picked up rivers used him dropped picked up bortles and keenum for playoffs after dropping the rest of the lottery picks and  players off my bench who I was never going to use to win the title.

so never carried 2 QB's during season and never hedged the position. I just played matchups and picked who was hot. 

so the only point you made that's accurate is you work the wire as you should over the course of a season.

I don't win my leagues in the draft i win over the season working the wire for the difference making flex player or replacements of the draft busts.

 

Any league where Wentz and Rivers were on the WW last season is either very shallow or devoid of good owners.

 

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Any league where Wentz and Rivers were on the WW last season is either very shallow or devoid of good owners.

 

 

That is the most moronic statement you can make and you do have a history of making some moronic posts.

 love how guys in hindsight a year later can state with confidence who the best players were as if they new it then. As I remember you were the guy emphatic that Luck would be ra 2017 stud and ready for week1 and then you moved the ball to week4 then you moved the ball again to 'when he returns by midseason"  then you quietly went away in the Luck thread.  You should know better than to attempt the response you did to my post. 

 So to inform you, in my league the guy who drafted wentz dropped him to the wire week2 because he probably had a stronger opinion about the QB he was starting or needed the bench spot.  Also Rivers was no consensus  preseason or early season favorite but then again maybe you play in leagues where guys like to waste roster spots on 2  Qb's when they can only start one because that's what weak leagues do, hoard QB's and leave potential game changing wr/rb on the waiver. 

Dude stop pretending you are some fantasy guru, you're not.

Youre not insightlful and your acumen is not evident in your posts. :D

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

That is the most moronic statement you can make and you do have a history of making some moronic posts.

 love how guys in hindsight a year later can state with confidence who the best players were as if they new it then. As I remember you were the guy emphatic that Luck would be ra 2017 stud and ready for week1 and then you moved the ball to week4 then you moved the ball again to 'when he returns by midseason"  then you quietly went away in the Luck thread.  You should know better than to attempt the response you did to my post. 

 So to inform you, in my league the guy who drafted wentz dropped him to the wire week2 because he probably had a stronger opinion about the QB he was starting or needed the bench spot.  Also Rivers was no consensus  preseason or early season favorite but then again maybe you play in leagues where guys like to waste roster spots on 2  Qb's when they can only start one because that's what weak leagues do, hoard QB's and leave potential game changing wr/rb on the waiver. 

Dude stop pretending you are some fantasy guru, you're not.

Youre not insightlful and your acumen is not evident in your posts. :D

In a 14 or 16 team league, if u draft Luck, you better have a second Qb. If only 5 or 6 owners draft 2 and and you decide to wing it with just Luck, you are doing just that...trying to win with luck. Qb 18 to 20 are Eli, Dak Alex Smith Andy Dalton types. You can get by for a couple weeks doing that, but it's a gamble.  Eli will go eli and Dak will have 180 yards passing some weeks...even in good matchups. Then, when 2 or 3 top 14 QBs go down, you got 2 or 3 more guys playing the same game...then u spend all your waiver dollars bidding on qbs with matchups, when u could be bidding on rbs or wrs. And savy opponents will out bid you or make you bid more, just to win that week or just to stop you from winning. If luck goes down again, then u are getting killed at Qb if u don't hedge that Luck bet. Drafting Luck means you take another Qb that you can start...rivers, stafford, Matt Ryan types. Keeps u from messing with Eli, Alex, Andy types 

 

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2 hours ago, Mattice1 said:

In a 14 or 16 team league, if u draft Luck, you better have a second Qb. If only 5 or 6 owners draft 2 and and you decide to wing it with just Luck, you are doing just that...trying to win with luck. Qb 18 to 20 are Eli, Dak Alex Smith Andy Dalton types. You can get by for a couple weeks doing that, but it's a gamble.  Eli will go eli and Dak will have 180 yards passing some weeks...even in good matchups. Then, when 2 or 3 top 14 QBs go down, you got 2 or 3 more guys playing the same game...then u spend all your waiver dollars bidding on qbs with matchups, when u could be bidding on rbs or wrs. And savy opponents will out bid you or make you bid more, just to win that week or just to stop you from winning. If luck goes down again, then u are getting killed at Qb if u don't hedge that Luck bet. Drafting Luck means you take another Qb that you can start...rivers, stafford, Matt Ryan types. Keeps u from messing with Eli, Alex, Andy types 

 

 

aah ok so now you are specifying 14-16 team leagues vs the conventional 12. . .:rolleyes:

 

Which  begs the question of why you would even draft Luck as  a top 12 QB  in the single digit rounds to begin with when rb'/wr are even scarcer and then you hedge him with another QB?  Meaning if the talent of wr/rb is already thin  in rd 9 where luck is being drafted imagine how much thinner it is in rd 10-15 where you can still have the better probability of getting potential top 10 QB but less probability of getting a top 10 wr/rb? 

Sorry mate but that doesnt help your argument much. I think you miss the  basics of supply and demand. Starting QB is in abundant supply in the draft other starting positions are not. You need 1 starting QB but you need a combination of  4 to 5 starting rb/wr every week

The gamble is not streaming your QB or taking one late, the gamble is drafting Luck  as a top 12 QB. :)

 

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On 6/13/2018 at 1:45 PM, afl5013 said:

 

If you're debating QB rankings, that's an entirely different argument. I'm simply stating that a QB with top 3 potential (whether you want to consider that QB Andrew Luck or Matt Ryan) is worth a shot in the 9th round.

 

As for his weapons, you could have said the same thing in 2014 when he put up 40 touchdowns. Who did he have then? He had Hilton, which is the same as this year, but who else? Reggie Wayne played 13 games and had 2 TOUCHDOWNS. Know who had 8 touchdowns? BOTH tight ends. Know what he has this year? TWO tight ends. I like how you conveniently left them out.

 

What about 2016 before he got hurt? He still had Hilton (again, same as this year) who had 6 touchdowns, but who else did he have? You guessed it. TWO tight ends. Dwayne Allen had 6, and I would argue Ebron is better than him. Doyle had 5. Andrew Luck was one of the most talented QB in the league before the injury (which I'm sure you'll disagree with, but he was probably the best QB prospect since Elway). He had the arm, the size, and the high IQ to be one of the best. If he makes it back to form, there's no reason to see why he can't put up numbers like he's shown he could do in the past.

 

Your argument is about his health is frankly a lazy take. If he's not healthy enough to see some action in the preseason, he won't be taken over guys like Ryan and Goff. Period. Most players don't draft until August, so we should have much more information to go off of by then, but debating his health now is pointless because neither of us really know.

His health is the only concern and it's a HUGE one.

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10 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Any league where Wentz and Rivers were on the WW last season is either very shallow or devoid of good owners.

 

Rivers has always been a good fantasy QB but wentz? Of course he was a ww QB 

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15 hours ago, Mattice1 said:

That's great to not start with 2 qbs. That said, u must be spending an early pick on Qb. Otherwise the streaming of QBs usually requires 2 QBs on the roster or constant waiver wire working for Qb. Either way, at some point during the season with a late pick at Qb1, u are carrying 2 QBs or u are starting a 8-10 ranked qb with a bad matchup once in a while. Late Qb draft means hedge,  early qb draft means no hedge.

Streaming doesn't mean you hold QBs lol it means you drop and pick one up

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http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2018/06/16/the-progress-rookie-qbs-and-other-top-story-lines-nfl-offseason/8n98xoZqmkNdQMrh18Wi1I/story.html

 

Quote

On the other hand, Luck is only now starting to throw again, for the first time since last October. And in Tuesday’s minicamp practice, Luck was using a high school football, not a regulation NFL football. Luck said he likes using the smaller ball as he starts his throwing program again, and has a “little mental block” about throwing the full-size ball.

 

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29 minutes ago, FlashGordon401 said:

Andrew Luck: Still has no pain in throwing shoulder

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000938845/article/andrew-luck-says-he-still-has-no-pain-in-shoulder

 

Let the ADP eruption commence.

 

Luck is a steal right now. Buy low.

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17 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

Lucks career is over. Move along boys.

 

Good to see that you're using those first couple of posts wisely...

 

Thanks for the knowledge. /s

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Grrr.  I'm getting sucked back in again.  Vowed not to draft him this year but it seems like I'm going to want to take another shot.  I think I'm probably going to end up with three of Luck, Winston, Mariota, and Rivers on my team... Then figure out which to drop.

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Just now, CooL said:

Grrr.  I'm getting sucked back in again.  Vowed not to draft him this year but it seems like I'm going to want to take another shot.  I think I'm probably going to end up with three of Luck, Winston, Mariota, and Rivers on my team... Then figure out which to drop.

Spending 3 draft picks on a QB?

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