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Flyman75

Blake Snell 2018 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Even though so far he’s failed to do that in 100% of his opportunities?

 

yep, I believe in the skills, and if Seth Lugo can no hit NYY then I'd gladly start Snell every time.

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2 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

yep, I believe in the skills, and if Seth Lugo can no hit NYY then I'd gladly start Snell every time.

 

To each his own, I guess.  I love Snell, and I still wouldn’t start him @NYY unless I absolutely had to.  

 

Maybe if if I saw him have at least one good start there first, I’d reconsider.

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

To each his own, I guess.  I love Snell, and I still wouldn’t start him @NYY unless I absolutely had to.  

 

Maybe if if I saw him have at least one good start there first, I’d reconsider.

 

TBF, I suppose I'm K starved and a little desensitized to blown ratios in the H2H where I've got Snell b/c of lesser arms in the rotation.  

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1 minute ago, ragrag said:

 

TBF, I suppose I'm K starved and a little desensitized to blown ratios in the H2H where I've got Snell b/c of lesser arms in the rotation.  

 

See, in that situation, it would make a ton of sense.

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14 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

To each his own, I guess.  I love Snell, and I still wouldn’t start him @NYY unless I absolutely had to.  

 

Maybe if if I saw him have at least one good start there first, I’d reconsider.

I know you're a diehard Yankees fan, and I'm not posting this to start an argument, but the Yankees' offense is not what it was earlier in the season.  That combined with what Snell has done since that start in April obviously made me fairly confident in starting him, judging by my posts in the Gameday thread earlier.  Also, the other person did have a point.  Snell is by far a better pitcher than Lugo and they couldn't hit him really at all, but I guess the Yankees are Snell's kryptonite.

 

In the end, I'm not concerned by tonight's start even though there were a few too many shades of pre-2018 Snell tonight.  He had way too much trouble locating much of anything with any consistency outside of the 1st and 3rd innings.  Even when he struck out the side in the 2nd, he walked 2.  Still, it's not like he had a good week or two.  He's been downright dominant after his early April start against the Yankees.  His next start doesn't get a whole lot easier (in Houston against Verlander), but I'll be rolling him out there again regardless.

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Appreciate your POV - I certainly didn’t believe it was crazy or something to start him.  And I admit that everyone has a different risk tolerance - thus my comment “to each his own.”  For me personally, the driving considerations for this particular start were: 1) Snell has rather remarkable home/away splits; 2) the Yanks have excelled all season against LHP and tend to hit better at home; 3) the Yanks were rolling out an all-righty lineup; and 4) Snell fared poorly last time there.  That combined with the fact that the Rays historically suck as a team at YSIII.

 

(I should point out that I don’t even own him anywhere!  Wish I did.)

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Appreciate your POV - I certainly didn’t believe it was crazy or something to start him.  And I admit that everyone has a different risk tolerance - thus my comment “to each his own.”  For me personally, the driving considerations for this particular start were: 1) Snell has rather remarkable home/away splits; 2) the Yanks have excelled all season against LHP and tend to hit better at home; 3) the Yanks were rolling out an all-righty lineup; and 4) Snell fared poorly last time there.  That combined with the fact that the Rays historically suck as a team at YSIII.

 

(I should point out that I don’t even own him anywhere!  Wish I did.)

Nothing wrong with your POV either.  I wouldn't have faulted anyone for sitting him even if I didn't feel the risk was as high as some people would have considered back in April.  I know I wouldn't have started him then, but he's a different pitcher now for the most part.

 

You are right about the splits, although his Away splits before tonight were still quite good (his opponent batting average was actually better on the road).  Obviously they took a hit tonight, but that's beside the point.

 

True, the Yankees have against LHP, but as I've pointed out, their offense as a whole has not been producing at the consistently extremely dangerous level they were earlier.  They are 19th in Runs and 20th in Average in June, and it seems like the fall started before then.  Didi fell way off before June, and Sanchez has been a mess for a while now.

 

Snell has been dominant enough against lefties that they might as well just leave their bats in the dugout, but he's still been good against righties.  Even with an all righty lineup, considering that, I wouldn't have cared.

 

You are definitely right about him fairly poorly the last time (and the time before that against them, etc.), but like I said already, he's a different pitcher and they aren't as dangerous as they were then either.

 

At the end of it all, obviously starting him didn't work out.  It's unfortunate, but there was definitely a real chance it could have went differently.

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I benched him this week but won't hesitste to start him next week going twice with the Yankees again on the back end of that. I'll take my chances vs any team with Snell at Home. 

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I don't blame anyone for starting him.  It was a last hour decision after closer inspection of the numbers for me to sit him.  So I did.  Even so...it was a still a decent start.  8Ks in 5 is of course excellent.  The 1.80 WHIP and 7.20 ERA, not so much.  Personally, I'll almost certainly sit him again the next time he starts @NYY.  There are maybe 5 pitchers I'd start @NYY this year.  Verlander, Kluber, Sale, deGrom, Scherzer, Cole, Kershaw.  OK so that's 7.  But that's it for me.

 

Also, I'm not a Yankees fan.  At all.

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6 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I benched him this week but won't hesitste to start him next week going twice with the Yankees again on the back end of that. I'll take my chances vs any team with Snell at Home. 

His start after going to Houston should be on the following Monday (the 25th) against Washington, but it is at home still.  That is unless they move him up a day because of a day off.  I'm just going by counting every 5 games.

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12 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I benched him this week but won't hesitste to start him next week going twice with the Yankees again on the back end of that. I'll take my chances vs any team with Snell at Home. 

Agreed, I'd be happy starting him home vs the Yanks. I threw him out there last night too, as hot as he'd been and Yankees cooling down. Ultimately didn't work out but at least we got 8 K's. Won't start him at Yankee stadium next time though.

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On 6/15/2018 at 5:50 AM, KilloWertz said:

His start after going to Houston should be on the following Monday (the 25th) against Washington, but it is at home still.  That is unless they move him up a day because of a day off.  I'm just going by counting every 5 games.

Most publications have him going twice next week. I guess most are assuming they pitch him on his normal 5 days regardless of the off day.

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1 hour ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Most publications have him going twice next week. I guess most are assuming they pitch him on his normal 5 days regardless of the off day.

My bad.  I guess that's the case then, and looking ahead, that's actually a good thing.  Otherwise it would have been against Max Scherzer, and with Eaton back, their offense is probably about as good or better than the Yankees are at the moment.

 

Hopefully this time they actually lay off all of the junk from German that was in the dirt. With all due respect to German, they were making him look better than he really is.  That was some pathetic display of offense on Thursday.  I have more respect for pitchers that can rack up the strikeouts with pitches that are actually in or at least near the strike zone.

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I imagine his home/away splits should be ignored.

home- 0.96 ERA, 0.94 WHIP.

away- 3.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP.

 

but this includes 3 specific games. 5 ER at Yankees in April, 5 ER at Baltimore in May, and now 4 ER at Yankees in his last start. other than those he has not given up more than 2 ER in any start home or away.

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You owners starting @HOU ? 

 

Houston has been pretty darn hot, I'm undecided myself. I've got some other matchups I can go with to avoid Snell at HOU tonight. I was curious what some of you guys are doing. It's a head to head league for me and I'm facing the 1st place team, of course I'm trying to avoid any potential blow ups. He's got a 7.50 or so career ERA in about 12 innings pitched against HOU. 

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1 hour ago, tonywow said:

You owners starting @HOU ? 

 

Houston has been pretty darn hot, I'm undecided myself. I've got some other matchups I can go with to avoid Snell at HOU tonight. I was curious what some of you guys are doing. It's a head to head league for me and I'm facing the 1st place team, of course I'm trying to avoid any potential blow ups. He's got a 7.50 or so career ERA in about 12 innings pitched against HOU. 

 

It would make absolutely no sense to bench a guy pitching this well so far this season. He's been an absolute stud. You do NOT pick and choose matchups with a guy who has been pitching this well.

 

His career stats are completely irrelevant. He's a different pitcher this year. Not to mention the incredibly small sample size.

 

Did you consider benching him against Boston too? 13.1 IP, 2 ER, 17k.

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Just like last week...the numbers say to sit him.  HOU without Altuve is of course helpful.  But HOU is super hot, Snell has never pitched well against them particularly @HOU.  Facing Verlander, so getting a W will be that much harder.  Still undecided...but I'm leaning sit.

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I've started him against BOS every time, he's been pretty good against my SOX in response to Roto above. HOU is different story and they've been a buzz saw lately with the 12 game streak going. Having other options this week has given me some wiggle room. Unfortunately in my league set up one bad start can dig a hole we can't climb out of and lose a matchup. Ultimately it's a coin flip what happens tonight, he could end their streak or get pummeled. Starting and getting killed hurts more in my league that not starting and missing out on a half way decent start, I'm not expecting a CG/SHO and 12 K's even if he does pitch well tonight. Just curious to see what others planned on doing tonight. 

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35 minutes ago, tonywow said:

I've started him against BOS every time, he's been pretty good against my SOX in response to Roto above. HOU is different story and they've been a buzz saw lately with the 12 game streak going. Having other options this week has given me some wiggle room. Unfortunately in my league set up one bad start can dig a hole we can't climb out of and lose a matchup. Ultimately it's a coin flip what happens tonight, he could end their streak or get pummeled. Starting and getting killed hurts more in my league that not starting and missing out on a half way decent start, I'm not expecting a CG/SHO and 12 K's even if he does pitch well tonight. Just curious to see what others planned on doing tonight. 

I rolled the dice and started this week in hopes he would get that second start on Sunday. I know Paxton as a hard throwing lefty has plenty of success against the Stros so hoping Snell can keep this offense at bay. Also nice the Stros decided to give Altuve the night off.

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Gulp, go Snell. Couldn't decide and daily roster lock decided for me heh. Hopefully without Altuve in the lineup he can do ok tonight. 

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What a great pitching duel between Snell and Verlander. Great start by Snell versus a very tough lineup. 

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Snell with 7 walks and 1 ER in 7 IP tonight.  Good for ERA leagues, makes things interesting in WHIP leagues...

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2 minutes ago, SF_Giants said:

Snell with 7 walks and 1 ER in 7 IP tonight.  Good for ERA leagues, makes things interesting in WHIP leagues...

 

He's resembled 2017 Blake Snell these last couple of starts. 

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4 minutes ago, SF_Giants said:

Snell with 7 walks and 1 ER in 7 IP tonight.  Good for ERA leagues, makes things interesting in WHIP leagues...

 

What about K/BB leagues?

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Wow thought that 7BBs was a typo at first. Hopefully he's not going back to his old ways, but last two starts were juggernaughts so he can be forgiven for nibbling a lot.

 

Unfortunately next two starts are the same teams but at home? Eff me, East pitchers have it tough.

 

And please rotoworld fix your goddamn blurbs, they say the exact same last part every time:

 

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Blake Snell kept up with one of the best pitchers in baseball Tuesday versus the Astros. He went seven innings allowing one run, outlasting the MLB ERA leader (among qualified starters). He did walk seven batters but earned the win when the Rays took the lead in the eighth. He has been the Rays best pitcher this season with his record now being 9-4 with a 2.48 ERA. Snell is only 25 years old but already had 218 1/3 innings pitched in the majors going into 2018. The most obvious strength of Snell's young career has been his 217 strikeouts coming into the season, showing that he is a power pitcher that can make a difference in fantasy lineups. He seemed like a fourth or fifth starter for fantasy coming into the season but is currently vastly outperforming that.

 

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