DerrickHenrysCleats

Kenyan Drake 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

 

based on what I'm seeing in preseason, I'm not seeing that same Drake.

 

Could be wrong though - it's only preseason.

 

What preseason have you been watching? He’s looked excellent.

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8 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

What preseason have you been watching? He’s looked excellent.

 

2018

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My concern here is about the usage, I have no doubts about the talent. How many touches would you guess he averages the first couple games? How many would you guess Gore and the other backs average? 

 

Will Drake be in on passing downs? Will Gore steal the GL touches?

 

Gore had 290 touches last year, do you really think he's going to be phased back to the point of having only 5-10 touches a game?

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18 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

My concern here is about the usage, I have no doubts about the talent. How many touches would you guess he averages the first couple games? How many would you guess Gore and the other backs average? 

 

Will Drake be in on passing downs? Will Gore steal the GL touches?

 

Gore had 290 touches last year, do you really think he's going to be phased back to the point of having only 5-10 touches a game?

 

Exactly. These are questions that no one can answer, thus the reason Drake is being overvalued in the 3rd and 4th round.

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1 hour ago, Pooskay said:

MIA is horrible. Stay away from that team

 

I for one may not stay be staying away. Titans D week 1, hell if nothing is out there why not Jets week 2, Raiders week 3 with no Mack no Thanks, NE, Cin, Chi, Det, Hou week 4-8 yes please etc... NE week 14 in the first round of playoffs yes please then Vikings and Jags in week 15 and 16 I can see them now as the top rated defenses for the semi's and finals.

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This needs to start with the 2016 season:

MIA signs Arian Foster to be their RB.

Ajayi (2nd year) is a healthy scratch for game one.  He doesn't fly with the team to Seattle for the first game of the season.

Ajayi and Foster spit snaps weeks 2-4.

Foster retires.  Ajayi is feature back.

Drake gets 33 carries as a rookie, similar to Ajayi's rookie volume.

 

2017:

Ajayi keeps feature back role in 2017, then is traded to PHI. 

Drake SPILTS with Damien Williams until Williams busts his shoulder.  Drake is last man standing.

 

2018:

Gore is brought in to be a committee back with Drake: 10 carries + 5 targets.  Fantasy points = 10, 14, 0, 2 weeks 8-11 last year. 

Expect Gore's usage to be similar.  That's what Williams had last year.

Drake is a RB1 ONLY if Gore is done for the season.  Rookie RBs don't get volume in MIA.  They get a year to learn: Ballage.

 

If you start Drake when Gore is healthy, expect games ranging from 0-14 points.

This is nothing more than a bet against Gore.  4th round is expensive.  Barber and Latavius Murray are better picks.  You can get them in the 10th round.

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If Barber makes it past the 7th round, [insert snarky comment about how your league isn’t competitive ebough].

 

Nah, but seriously, I wouldn’t hold your breath on getting Barber that late.  I think Murray is a safe bet in double digit rounds unless the cook owner reaches as a handcuff.

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31 minutes ago, jmausen said:

This needs to start with the 2016 season:

MIA signs Arian Foster to be their RB.

Ajayi (2nd year) is a healthy scratch for game one.  He doesn't fly with the team to Seattle for the first game of the season.

Ajayi and Foster spit snaps weeks 2-4.

Foster retires.  Ajayi is feature back.

Drake gets 33 carries as a rookie, similar to Ajayi's rookie volume.

 

2017:

Ajayi keeps feature back role in 2017, then is traded to PHI. 

Drake SPILTS with Damien Williams until Williams busts his shoulder.  Drake is last man standing.

 

2018:

Gore is brought in to be a committee back with Drake: 10 carries + 5 targets.  Fantasy points = 10, 14, 0, 2 weeks 8-11 last year. 

Expect Gore's usage to be similar.  That's what Williams had last year.

Drake is a RB1 ONLY if Gore is done for the season.  Rookie RBs don't get volume in MIA.  They get a year to learn: Ballage.

 

If you start Drake when Gore is healthy, expect games ranging from 0-14 points.

This is nothing more than a bet against Gore.  4th round is expensive.  Barber and Latavius Murray are better picks.  You can get them in the 10th round.

You're comparing complete apples to oranges.

2015:

Ajayi showed little to nothing in his rookie year while backing up Lamar Miller.

 

2016:

Miller left in free agency so the Dolphins brought in Foster to be their starting RB because none of the backs on their roster showed anything the year prior. Foster retired a few weeks into the season and Ajayi is given a chance. Ajayi explodes and his hyper productive taking on a workhorse status. Drake showed flashes as a rookie runner but the coaching staffed loved Damien Williams so he remained the primary 3rd down/COP back.

 

2017:

Ajayi is solid but getting an inconsistent workload thus making him inconsistent from week to week. He suddenly gets traded after butting heads with Gase. Coaches still show their love for Williams despite a lack of production and he splits carries with Drake despite Drake out preforming him. Williams gets injured and as the "last man standing" Drake takes fantasy football by storm as a workhorse.

 

2018:

Dolphins sign Gore and draft a rookie RB. We have no idea if Gore was actually brought in to be a committee back. It's impossible to know what Gore's usage will actually be.

 

I would argue that Drake in 2018 is far closer to Ajayi in 2017 with the exception that Drake should actually be used in the passing game. Drake will probably see less carries than Ajayi did as the lead back but if you supplement his usage in the passing game I think their touch total could be very similar. 

 

Saying Drake will score between "0-14" per week points when Gore is healthy has to be a joke. Looking back at four weeks in 2017 and copy and pasting those numbers to 2018 is just lazy. The year prior to Ajayi splitting carries with Foster, Ajayi had shown little to nothing in the NFL which is why they they brought Foster in to split carries. After Foster retired Ajayi came to life and showed he is a special talent warranting workhorse like touches each week. Similarly, after Williams was injured, Drake exploded and showed that he is a special talent warranting workhorse like touches each week.

 

Long story short, Drake's situation in 2018 is nothing like Ajayi's in 2016 and it's closer to Ajayi's situation in 2017.

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Coach Adam Gase said "hopefully" Kenyan Drake will handle 15-20 carries and see 6-8 targets per game.

Gase said he'd love for the Dolphins to average 70-75 offensive plays per game. (The Patriots led the league last season at just under 68 plays.) So, we're not sure how Gase plans to fit in an extra 10-15 plays per game after Miami averaged about 62 in 2017. Anyway, it's evident the Dolphins love Drake, and Gase said if Drake earns the right to be a bellcow back then he'll have no problem giving him the ball regularly. Frank Gore still poses a threat to Drake's touchdown potential.
 
 
Source: ESPN.com
Aug 29 - 9:58 AM
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Just now, The G Man said:

Coach Adam Gase said "hopefully" Kenyan Drake will handle 15-20 carries and see 6-8 targets per game.

Gase said he'd love for the Dolphins to average 70-75 offensive plays per game. (The Patriots led the league last season at just under 68 plays.) So, we're not sure how Gase plans to fit in an extra 10-15 plays per game after Miami averaged about 62 in 2017. Anyway, it's evident the Dolphins love Drake, and Gase said if Drake earns the right to be a bellcow back then he'll have no problem giving him the ball regularly. Frank Gore still poses a threat to Drake's touchdown potential.
 
 
Source: ESPN.com
Aug 29 - 9:58 AM

 

you have Playerline too?  Wonderful news for Drake owners

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Just now, The G Man said:

Coach Adam Gase said "hopefully" Kenyan Drake will handle 15-20 carries and see 6-8 targets per game.

Gase said he'd love for the Dolphins to average 70-75 offensive plays per game. (The Patriots led the league last season at just under 68 plays.) So, we're not sure how Gase plans to fit in an extra 10-15 plays per game after Miami averaged about 62 in 2017. Anyway, it's evident the Dolphins love Drake, and Gase said if Drake earns the right to be a bellcow back then he'll have no problem giving him the ball regularly. Frank Gore still poses a threat to Drake's touchdown potential.
 
 
Source: ESPN.com
Aug 29 - 9:58 AM

 

25 touches a game?

 

If that's true Drake will finish as a top 5 overall RB

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One of the, if not the most prolific offense last year, the NE Patriots ran a league high 67.5 plays per game. 

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2 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

One of the, if not the most prolific offense last year, the NE Patriots ran a league high 67.5 plays per game. 

 

How many did the Dolphins run last year? 

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I agree it's an overly-optimistic number of touches per game, but is this not the first time Gase has come out speaking about Drake potentially being a bellcow back for them?

Edited by The G Man

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2 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

One of the, if not the most prolific offense last year, the NE Patriots ran a league high 67.5 plays per game. 

 

They also had some seriously sloppy defense for 3/5th of the year which kept the offense off the field.  So, how is the Miami defense going to be this year?

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Just now, JSA2422 said:

 

How many did the Dolphins run last year? 

 

62.2 = 22nd in the league.

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Pretty wild that the difference between the top team in the league and the 22nd is 5 possessions.  No matter the number though, it’s good news that Drake is regarded as the top option coming into the season.

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We should focus less on the #s quoted and more so on Gase's backing of Drake. We saw the usage and performance last year and preseason..now we have the coach speak. I think the "hopefully" is obviously depending on the team's performance and game plan versus Ballage/Gore/etc. 

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The numbers are indeed high but the good thing is, Drake will be included in the passing game. 

 

We also know that Tannehill likes the shorter throws and Landry is gone.  Watch for lots of dumps to Drake and we know he can make guys miss.  If he gets the rock in open space watch out.

 

6-8 targets might be a bit optimistic but if they are playing from behind and Drake is in there catching passes that could be a reality some games.  4-5 on average should be a realistic target.  

 

As I have said before, Drake is the best RB on that team and I'm not worried about a 35 year old Gore who has been at 3.9ypc or less in the last 3 years.  Gore will vulture some TDs but Drake is the man to own right now.  

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