DerrickHenrysCleats

Kenyan Drake 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, nonstopfan said:

 

62.2 = 22nd in the league.

I'd be curious to know the amount of plays they ran once Drake took over as the lead back. There was a time in there where he was splitting with Damien Williams that I'm sure their play total was way down.

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2 minutes ago, munde53 said:

I'd be curious to know the amount of plays they ran once Drake took over as the lead back. There was a time in there where he was splitting with Damien Williams that I'm sure their play total was way down.

 

They ran a majority of the preseason out of no huddle as well 

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10 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

The numbers are indeed high but the good thing is, Drake will be included in the passing game. 

 

We also know that Tannehill likes the shorter throws and Landry is gone.  Watch for lots of dumps to Drake and we know he can make guys miss.  If he gets the rock in open space watch out.

 

6-8 targets might be a bit optimistic but if they are playing from behind and Drake is in there catching passes that could be a reality some games.  4-5 on average should be a realistic target.  

 

As I have said before, Drake is the best RB on that team and I'm not worried about a 35 year old Gore who has been at 3.9ypc or less in the last 3 years.  Gore will vulture some TDs but Drake is the man to own right now.  

Curious how you would rank him compared to guys like McCoy, Howard and Collins for this season?

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1 hour ago, nonstopfan said:

 

62.2 = 22nd in the league.

 

7 minutes ago, munde53 said:

I'd be curious to know the amount of plays they ran once Drake took over as the lead back. There was a time in there where he was splitting with Damien Williams that I'm sure their play total was way down.

It's not the best stat, but I was able to find that over the last three games of the year (when Drake was starting) they averaged 64.7 plays per game. If they had averaged that over the course of the year they would have been tied with Tampa Bay for 11th in the league.

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2 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Curious how you would rank him compared to guys like McCoy, Howard and Collins for this season?

 

Howard, Drake, Collins, McCoy

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1 minute ago, ponza88 said:

 

Howard, Drake, Collins, McCoy

Yeah, that's kinda what I thought too. 

 

Thanks Ponza!

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15 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Curious how you would rank him compared to guys like McCoy, Howard and Collins for this season?

I mainly play standard so I would rank them Howard (I'm huge on him) then McCoy (if he doesn't end up suspended or in jail) then Drake and then Collins.

 

I've owned McCoy in a keeper league before and I like him but this year he is 100% DND for me.  Too much risk to lose a guy like that who is also a bit of an injury risk.  So while I ranked McCoy ahead I'm not drafting him.

 

I'd like to see BAL endorse Collins 100% and let him run with the lead role.  Having said that I don't trust what BAL will do with their RBs so Drake is second for me after Howard on that list.

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Total Dolphins offensive snaps from weeks 13-17 when Drake was the workhorse back:

 

Week 13: 67 offensive snaps (Drake was on 79%)

Week 14: 74 offensive snaps (Drake was on 90%)

Week 15: 75 offensive snaps (Drake was on 96%)

Week 16: 57 offensive snaps (Drake was on 95%)

Week 17: 71 offensive snaps (Drake was on 68%)

 

In other words the Dolphins averaged 68.8 plays per game while Drake was the workhorse and Drake was on the field for 92.4% of those plays. 

 

Obviously five games is not a good sample size but averaging 68.8 offensive plays per game would have put them at #1 in the NFL for offensive plays run if they had averaged it over the course of the season. I don't think they'll average over 68 plays for game in 2018 nor do I think Drake will see over 92% of the offensive snaps. However, there is reason for excitement especially when you consider Jay Cutler was the QB.

Edited by munde53
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10 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Total Dolphins offensive snaps from weeks 13-17 when Drake was the workhorse back:

 

Week 13: 67 offensive snaps (Drake was on 79%)

Week 14: 74 offensive snaps (Drake was on 90%)

Week 15: 75 offensive snaps (Drake was on 96%)

Week 16: 57 offensive snaps (Drake was on 95%)

Week 17: 71 offensive snaps (Drake was on 68%)

 

In other words the Dolphins averaged 68.8 plays per game while Drake was the workhorse and Drake was on the field for 92.4% of those plays. 

 

Obviously five games is not a good sample size but averaging 68.8 offensive plays per game would have put them at #1 in the NFL for offensive plays run if they had averaged it over the course of the season. I don't think they'll average over 68 plays for game in 2018 nor do I think Drake will see over 92% of the offensive snaps. However, there is reason for excitement especially when you consider Jay Cutler was the QB.

 

Thanks for looking this up. I'm not really on the Drake bandwagon and I feel like this scenario could be fools gold HOWEVER stats like this combined with coach speak (even though somewhat nonsensical) does make me warm up to the guy a little bit more. I'm just having a hard time with the coaching staff dismissing Gore and basically alluding that Gore is virtually going to get no work. Situation just feels strange.

Edited by nonstopfan
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1 minute ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Thanks for looking this up. I'm not really a fan of Drake and I feel like this scenario could be fools gold HOWEVER stats like this combined with coach speak (even though somewhat nonsensical) does make me warm up to the guy a little bit more. I'm just having a hard time with the coaching staff dismissing Gore alluding that Gore basically is going to virtually get no work.Situation just feels strange.

I do not trust Gase at all given how he handled Ajayi and I agree the situation feels strange. However, if you watch Drake run you can tell that he is a special/explosive player and has the tools to be a NFL starting RB.

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13 minutes ago, munde53 said:

I do not trust Gase at all given how he handled Ajayi and I agree the situation feels strange. However, if you watch Drake run you can tell that he is a special/explosive player and has the tools to be a NFL starting RB.

Gase didn't like Ajayi because he wasn't doing what he was asked to do.  There were reports that he struggled with some of the playbook and wasn't putting in the time the coaches felt like he should.  It wasn't to do with his production.  They felt he wasn't a good fit for the team.  Sometimes coaches don't mesh well with players, even good ones.  As much as I don't like Gase there was a reason he let Ajayi go.

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Per Gase today: "hopefully Drake will handle 15-20 carries per game and see 6-8 targets per game"

 

 

Edited by phatrat
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8 hours ago, Big Nate said:

Gase didn't like Ajayi because he wasn't doing what he was asked to do.  There were reports that he struggled with some of the playbook and wasn't putting in the time the coaches felt like he should.  It wasn't to do with his production.  They felt he wasn't a good fit for the team.  Sometimes coaches don't mesh well with players, even good ones.  As much as I don't like Gase there was a reason he let Ajayi go.

 

IIRC, the previous coaching regime wasn't in love with Ajazyi either.  Nothing specific, just that there was no good off season buzz during his rookie year.

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37 minutes ago, ShopHeirlooms said:

So top 10 this year?

 

That is the hope.  Maybe it is just me, but I always thought this offense moved decently when Tannehill was under center.  He gets a lot of slack but I don't think the kid is terrible - he just keeps getting hurt.  With a semi-decent Tannehill, Drake might be even better than what we expect.  I am high on this kid for a third round pick up, at any point in the third round.  

 

P.S. More than ever, I believe there is a gold rush for RBs in the first three rounds of the draft. 

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22 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

That is the hope.  Maybe it is just me, but I always thought this offense moved decently when Tannehill was under center.  He gets a lot of slack but I don't think the kid is terrible - he just keeps getting hurt.  With a semi-decent Tannehill, Drake might be even better than what we expect.  I am high on this kid for a third round pick up, at any point in the third round.  

 

P.S. More than ever, I believe there is a gold rush for RBs in the first three rounds of the draft. 

agree I believe his adp should be somewhere in the 3rd round especially in half/full ppr leagues. I think he really has a chance to crack top 10 this year.

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Just now, kdpat15 said:

agree I believe his adp should be somewhere in the 3rd round especially in half/full ppr leagues. I think he really has a chance to crack top 10 this year.

 

Then you add in my own personal RB-is-way-more-important-early-in-the-draft ratio and he is pushing a 2nd round pick.

 

Honestly, Julio and Michael Thomas had a combined 8 TDs last year.  Got more out of my 4th round Alshon last year.  Just adding to my make-believe ratio.

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On 8/29/2018 at 8:22 AM, JSA2422 said:

We should focus less on the #s quoted and more so on Gase's backing of Drake. We saw the usage and performance last year and preseason..now we have the coach speak. I think the "hopefully" is obviously depending on the team's performance and game plan versus Ballage/Gore/etc. 

 

Bingo.  All that matters is that Drake has earned his coaches trust.  Thats huge with insecure, fickle children like Gase.   I’d still rather he get fired... but you can’t deny the production of his favored back.   

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I don't think the Dolphins will be very good this year. They have two playmakers that can keep things exciting - Drake and Stills. I doubt Kenny D's in the workload range Gase wants, but even on 13-16 carries and 2-3 receptions per week Drake can do some serious damage. To be honest, I wouldn't want 20 touches per week. I think he'd break down. Drake's 133 carries last year represented a career high - college and pros combined. 215 carries and 35 catches would be more than enough for a big play machine like this to rack up 1,200 yards or so. If he's able to do that + sneak in 6-8 td's, you've got yourself a solid rb2. 

 

I took Drake at pick 4.2 (38th overall) yesterday as my rb3. I went rb-heavy early as I felt there was great wr value to be had later on. I think a number of people will start to give Drake a look in the mid-late 3rd, as a rb1 for those wr-wr drafters or rb2 for most. I'd feel uneasy with a non-bellcow rb on a bad team as my rb1, but as an rb2 he's good enough. 

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I am taking a wait-and-see approach with Drake, he has  a lot of appeal in PPR leagues. I plan to throw him in at the flex spot in favorable matchups, otherwise he is an insurance policy if my other two RB's go down.

 

I don't expect the Dolphins to be very good but on the other hand Tannehill has his moments, and has to be an upgrade from Smokin' Jay Cutler. Gase does tend to be good for offenses in general...

 

in the end, who knows?

Edited by Dead Money

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1 hour ago, Dead Money said:

I am taking a wait-and-see approach with Drake, he has  a lot of appeal in PPR leagues. I plan to throw him in at the flex spot in favorable matchups, otherwise he is an insurance policy if my other two RB's go down.

 

I don't expect the Dolphins to be very good but on the other hand Tannehill has his moments, and has to be an upgrade from Smokin' Jay Cutler. Gase does tend to be good for offenses in general...

 

in the end, who knows?

 

No more wait and see for me, just drafted him in the 4th round.  Really had no plans to draft him, didn't take him in any mock drafts, but there he was in the mid 4th round and I went with it.  

 

I'm fully not expecting a massive return on investment from him, so going into the season with limited expectations and hoping I strike some gold here.  What made me pull the trigger on him is the explosive plays.  If he gets enough touches, he can flip a field in a heartbeat.  Just not sure how he will be as a season long, between the tackles grinder.  

 

 

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21 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Then you add in my own personal RB-is-way-more-important-early-in-the-draft ratio and he is pushing a 2nd round pick.

 

Honestly, Julio and Michael Thomas had a combined 8 TDs last year.  Got more out of my 4th round Alshon last year.  Just adding to my make-believe ratio.


Not in a ppr league you didn't.

I agree however, that in standard scoring, top RBs are WAY more important than WRs. 

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