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Kenyan Drake 2018 Outlook

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I really like this kid for where he's going in some drafts.  He passed the eye test for me last season, and the fact that he is a dual threat makes Miami sucking not as big of an issue.   Even when trailing he should get targets and the occasional draw.  I've put him in the Collins, Mixon, Miller group of RB2s that I wouldn't mine owning.  Collins and Drake being my 2 favorites.

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This might be a bold statement to some.... but....

I'd rather own Kenyan Drake than Joe Mixon.

To me, Kenyan Drake is an RB1 this season. He passes the eye test with flying colors, whereas Joe Mixon... not so much.

I also think Gio is more of a threat to Mixon is than Gore is to Drake.

Edited by ponza88
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8 hours ago, ponza88 said:

This might be a bold statement to some.... but....

I'd rather own Kenyan Drake than Joe Mixon.

To me, Kenyan Drake is an RB1 this season. He passes the eye test with flying colors, whereas Joe Mixon... not so much.

I also think Gio is more of a threat to Mixon is than Gore is to Drake.

 

Me too.  Both are expected to be featured backs on mediocre offenses.  But to this point, Mixon has never showed us anything to believe he'll actually succeed.  Whereas Drake has flashed often.  I think Drake has the safer floor, though Mixon may have more upside if his college scouting reports are to be believed.  We just haven't seen it.

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8 hours ago, ponza88 said:

This might be a bold statement to some.... but....

I'd rather own Kenyan Drake than Joe Mixon.

To me, Kenyan Drake is an RB1 this season. He passes the eye test with flying colors, whereas Joe Mixon... not so much.

I also think Gio is more of a threat to Mixon is than Gore is to Drake.

 

Agree. Massive PPR season incoming.

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3 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

Me too.  Both are expected to be featured backs on mediocre offenses.  But to this point, Mixon has never showed us anything to believe he'll actually succeed.  Whereas Drake has flashed often.  I think Drake has the safer floor, though Mixon may have more upside if his college scouting reports are to be believed.  We just haven't seen it.

 

I don't think that's a fair assessment of Mixon. If you watch his stuff, he very obviously has really good vision and cutting ability. 

 

That said, Drake is also someone who jumps off the screen at me, much like Mixon. His burst is awesome, decisive runner. I like him.  

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1 minute ago, CurvePirate814 said:

 

I don't think that's a fair assessment of Mixon. If you watch his stuff, he very obviously has really good vision and cutting ability. 

 

That said, Drake is also someone who jumps off the screen at me, much like Mixon. His burst is awesome, decisive runner. I like him.  

 

Maybe occasionally, but if Mixon had really good vision and cutting, he shouldn't have averaged 3.5 ypc and should have had more than 4 TDs.  Too often he exhibits the opposite.  That certainly can improve with experience, but we've already seen Drake exhibit even better vision and cutback ability than Mixon. 

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6 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

Maybe occasionally, but if Mixon had really good vision and cutting, he shouldn't have averaged 3.5 ypc and should have had more than 4 TDs.  Too often he exhibits the opposite.  That certainly can improve with experience, but we've already seen Drake exhibit even better vision and cutback ability than Mixon. 

 

The Bengals oline last season was absolutely atrocious.  Not that I think much will change because Marvin Lewis is probably the worst longest tenured coach in history next to Jeff Fisher, but you catch my drift.  But I do agree Drake at this point looks much ahead of Mixon.

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26 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

Maybe occasionally, but if Mixon had really good vision and cutting, he shouldn't have averaged 3.5 ypc and should have had more than 4 TDs.  Too often he exhibits the opposite.  That certainly can improve with experience, but we've already seen Drake exhibit even better vision and cutback ability than Mixon. 

In fairness- you’re talking about a rookie last season vs a guy who had time to absorb the offense and develop.    Mixon of 2018 will be much improved in this area.  

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Drake may be fools gold. 60% of his rush yards came on runs of 10+ yards while the league average is 40%. And 75% of those yards came on 5 runs where the phins were down in the 4th quarter; Ds playing the pass/prevent opening up huge lanes for chinch yardage. Not asking anything away from drake as he took advantage of optimal situations; just saying a regression to the mean is possible especially now that Ds could focus more o. Him instead of WRs with Landry gone. 

 

Gimme Ajayi, Collins, Henry or even Miller over Drake as they’re all around 40-55 ADPs. They all have pock marks to be sure but so does drake. Henry and Ajayi could have passing downs/2 minute offense/3rd downs taken from them, Collins same boat but also less history of sustained production, and Miller is coming off a down year. 

 

In my eyes all these rbs plus drake are relatively even at their adps as lead backs with upside and downside. But all things being equal, give me the guys with more replicable stats and proven experience. 

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58 minutes ago, WestCoastMets said:

Drake may be fools gold. 60% of his rush yards came on runs of 10+ yards while the league average is 40%. And 75% of those yards came on 5 runs where the phins were down in the 4th quarter; Ds playing the pass/prevent opening up huge lanes for chinch yardage. Not asking anything away from drake as he took advantage of optimal situations; just saying a regression to the mean is possible especially now that Ds could focus more o. Him instead of WRs with Landry gone. 

 

Gimme Ajayi, Collins, Henry or even Miller over Drake as they’re all around 40-55 ADPs. They all have pock marks to be sure but so does drake. Henry and Ajayi could have passing downs/2 minute offense/3rd downs taken from them, Collins same boat but also less history of sustained production, and Miller is coming off a down year. 

 

In my eyes all these rbs plus drake are relatively even at their adps as lead backs with upside and downside. But all things being equal, give me the guys with more replicable stats and proven experience. 

5


I'm not sure how you can say most of these guys have more 'proven experience' with their lead back roles. Ajayi flashed, but wasn't consistent. Henry flashes but isn't consistent. Collins flashes but doesn't have the receiving chops of Drake.

To somewhat counter your argument:

 

2017 Production

Kenyan Drake’s end of season numbers for 2017 is impressive considering he only received 19 carries in the first half of the season.  Despite the late start, Drake managed nearly 900 total yards and 4 TDs.

Attempts Rushing Yards YPC Receptions Yards TDs
133 644 4.84 32 239 4

It doesn’t take a math wizard to realize that this means Drake when bananas in the back half of the season.  It’s also easy to see why the production jumped.  The Dolphins traded their starting RB, Jay Ajayi, away in Week 8.  Following this transaction, Drake’s touches per game went from 1.86 to 16.89.  And Drake made the most of them.  From Week 9 on, Drake averaged 5.03 ypc and 3.2 receptions per game.  Better still, Drake only improved as the year went on.  In weeks 12 through 17, Drake averaged 118.8 total yards per game, good for 17.68 fantasy points per game (PPR).  Only two RBs in the league surpassed this mark in 2017, their names are Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley, maybe you’ve heard of them.  I expect Drake to carry this success and efficiency forward into 2018 and he already has, posting 6.8 ypc this preseason.

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13 minutes ago, ponza88 said:

 

Ajayi, Henry and Collins both have great full seasons to their name. Drake doesn't. Not really relevant here, but his statement makes perfect sense, not sure what you're misunderstanding.

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2 minutes ago, jujuonthebeat said:

Ajayi, Henry and Collins both have great full seasons to their name. Drake doesn't. Not really relevant here, but his statement makes perfect sense, not sure what you're misunderstanding.


Ajayi got traded mid-season in favor of Drake.

Henry was always shadowing Murray... questions remain if Dion Lewis will cut into his work load... or if he is even a good Featured Back... Why did they bring in Lewis? MUCH MORE CONCERN THERE than Gore to Drake.

Collins is the only one I agree with... that's why I scoop him and Drake up in every draft... Collins with the pure rushing ability... Drake with the Rushing + Receiving ability (/csb.... admins, it helps make my point.)

Not misunderstanding anything there....

Edited by ponza88

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1 minute ago, jujuonthebeat said:

Ajayi, Henry and Collins both have great full seasons to their name. Drake doesn't. Not really relevant here, but his statement makes perfect sense, not sure what you're misunderstanding.

As does @ponza88 counterpoint.   Drake took off after assuming the lead role.     I completely agree with him. 

 

Not sure what you’re misunderstanding 

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

As does @ponza88 counterpoint.   Drake took off after assuming the lead role.     I completely agree with him. 

 

Not sure what you’re misunderstanding 

Huh?

 

19 minutes ago, ponza88 said:

I'm not sure how you can say most of these guys have more 'proven experience' with their lead back roles.

No. His counterpoint does not make sense. They have more proven experience with their lead back roles.

 

ED: Henry wasn't a lead back, but that's also changing the argument of WestCoastMets. "give me the guys with more replicable stats and proven experience." They have more replicable stats and proven experience.

Edited by jujuonthebeat

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2 minutes ago, jujuonthebeat said:

Huh?

 

No. His counterpoint does not make sense. They have more proven experience with their lead back roles.

 


Do they? Really? By how much? Were they better with their opportunities than Drake?

Edited by ponza88

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1 minute ago, jujuonthebeat said:

By enough for his point to be correct and your counterargument to be wrong.


So it's your opinion, not fact, that you agree on. Got it.

Not saying you're wrong... just wish you'd back up your remarks by an actual in-depth response.

Edited by ponza88

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Just now, ponza88 said:

So it's your opinion... not fact that you agree on, got it.

No, it's a fact if you know anything about football. Those players have all had an entire year of sustained success which Drake hasn't. You're arguing about something you're objectively wrong about.

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1 minute ago, ponza88 said:


Do they? Really? By how much?

 

Ajayi-  benched in 2016 and left home from a road trip- until injury forced Gase to play him.   Then they traded him to philly mid season

 

Collins-  surprise breakout- big finisher just like Drake

 

Henry-  just laughable.   Second fiddle to Murray and they liked him so much they brought in one of the coveted FA backs.  

 

Its getting more ridiculous. 

 

 

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Just now, jujuonthebeat said:

No, it's a fact if you know anything about football. Those players have all had an entire year of sustained success which Drake hasn't. You're arguing about something you're objectively wrong about.


Agreed to disagree. Good luck this season.

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Ajayi-  benched in 2016 and left home from a road trip- until injury forced Gase to play him.   Then they traded him to philly mid season

 

Collins-  surprise breakout- big finisher just like Drake

 

Henry-  just laughable.   Second fiddle to Murray and they liked him so much they brought in one of the coveted FA backs.  

 

Its getting more ridiculous. 

 

 


I wish I could 'Laugh' and 'Like' this all at the same time. Hahaha.

AGREED.

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Just now, ponza88 said:


I wish I could 'Laugh' and 'Like' this all at the same time. Hahaha.

AGREED.

 

Unfortunately you are “objectively wrong”.   I will not provide any evidence of this other than my fantasy teams loaded up with shares of not Drake.   :lol:

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

Ajayi-  benched in 2016 and left home from a road trip- until injury forced Gase to play him.   Then they traded him to philly mid season

 

Collins-  surprise breakout- big finisher just like Drake

 

Henry-  just laughable.   Second fiddle to Murray and they liked him so much they brought in one of the coveted FA backs.  

 

Its getting more ridiculous. 

Ajayi as a Top 11 back in 2016, and was on the Top 100 players list.

 

Collins finished as a Top 20 fantasy back. Drake finished as a flex play. Because Collins had a successful season.

 

Henry outplayed Murray by the end of the year. He was 21st in DVOA among running backs. Drake was 39th. Not sure why you're acting like bringing in Dion Lewis is a bad thing, most intelligent teams in the NFL (like the two teams that were in the Super Bowl, who are each rotating 3 backs) split touches if they don't have Todd Gurley.

 

It's unclear why you're lying about things that anyone is capable of looking up. You're wrong.

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Collins could also be fools gold.  His ypc is also, like Drake, inflated by some big runs.  That earned him the starting job after week 4.  From that point on, he had more games under 4 ypc (some way under) than over.  Most of his production came in 3 big games. The rest was hit or miss.  I'd say he has similar potential as Drake for breakout or flameout. 

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Henry is tied to the improvement of what was a very disappointing offense.  He now has the goal line all to himself.  If that offense just moves up to above average, he could be among the TD leaders, which would make him a bargain. 

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