DerrickHenrysCleats

Kenyan Drake 2018 Outlook

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All 4 of them have concerns and that’s why they are being drafted where they are. 

 

I own Drake as my RB2 and he concerns me more than anyone else on my roster. Is he capable of being a between the tackles workhorse RB?  He hasn’t proven it and he had one of the weakest Bench press counts at the combine. They signed Gore for a reason, they don’t trust Drake with a full workload. 

 

However if they stick to what they are saying and give Drake 15-20 touches, he should be a rock solid RB2. 

 

In the preseason he continued to make big plays with his opportunities. This was the reason I drafted him. 

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19 minutes ago, jujuonthebeat said:

Ajayi as a Top 11 back in 2016, and was on the Top 100 players list.

 

Collins finished as a Top 20 fantasy back. Drake finished as a flex play. Because Collins had a successful season.

 

Henry outplayed Murray by the end of the year. He was 21st in DVOA among running backs. Drake was 39th. Not sure why you're acting like bringing in Dion Lewis is a bad thing, most intelligent teams in the NFL (like the two teams that were in the Super Bowl, who are each rotating 3 backs) split touches if they don't have Todd Gurley.

 

It's unclear why you're lying about things that anyone is capable of looking up. You're wrong.

 

It’s unclear why you have a stick jammed directly between the cheeks.    I’m happy to continue this debate if you can strike a new tone.   Otherwise its gonna get ugly fast and that’s not worth the time.     LMK

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Great points and debate. 

 

Its all about personal preference. An arguement can be made for any of the backs around Drakes ADP and data/stats can be found to support any arguement. 

 

But again, may arguement against drake was that his efficient production seems less replicable to me personally (60% of his yards came on runs of 10+ yards vs league average of 40% and 75% of those yards came on 5 4th quarter runs). 

 

Counter arguements made since my post are all valid. But to me Henry having Lewis brought in is not a knock on Henry but rather a team recognizing his strengths and finding a player to fill his gaps. But he should still get all the early down work and goal line looks. Collins yes doesn’t haven’t a full year of sustained production but the efficiency of his 2017 stats are replicable; no real outliers vs means across secondary stats. Ajayi got 5.8 ypc once he got to the eagles and should get more goal line looks with Blount gone but has real competition for 3rd Down/passing situation playing time and if he falters could get a quick hook with clement waiting in the wings. And Miller has has two lower-than-expected years of production but could surprise with Watson back and has zero competition for carries and targets. 

 

Id be happy with any of them between picks 40 and 55. But I’d prefer all of them over drake as they all have deterents but drake has the same deterents (completion from gore, ballage) but has many outliers in his stats that are driving his rankings while the others do not. 

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1 minute ago, WestCoastMets said:

Great points and debate. 

 

Its all about personal preference. An arguement can be made for any of the backs around Drakes ADP and data/stats can be found to support any arguement. 

 

But again, may arguement against drake was that his efficient production seems less replicable to me personally (60% of his yards came on runs of 10+ yards vs league average of 40% and 75% of those yards came on 5 4th quarter runs). 

 

Counter arguements made since my post are all valid. But to me Henry having Lewis brought in is not a knock on Henry but rather a team recognizing his strengths and finding a player to fill his gaps. But he should still get all the early down work and goal line looks. Collins yes doesn’t haven’t a full year of sustained production but the efficiency of his 2017 stats are replicable; no real outliers vs means across secondary stats. Ajayi got 5.8 ypc once he got to the eagles and should get more goal line looks with Blount gone but has real competition for 3rd Down/passing situation playing time and if he falters could get a quick hook with clement waiting in the wings. And Miller has has two lower-than-expected years of production but could surprise with Watson back and has zero competition for carries and targets. 

 

Id be happy with any of them between picks 40 and 55. But I’d prefer all of them over drake as they all have deterents but drake has the same deterents (completion from gore, ballage) but has many outliers in his stats that are driving his rankings while the others do not. 

Absolutely fair.   

 

Collins

Drake

Ajayi

Henry

Freeman

 

all question marks-  none have led their current backfields for an entire season.      I love Drake’s big play potential and the words coming out of Gases mouth are nothing but glowing.     Not a wrong answer- just preference on which type of risk one is more willing to stomach. 

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1 minute ago, WestCoastMets said:

Great points and debate. 

You're very generous ;)

giphy.webp

I was thinking more along the lines of "how can I get rid of this thread", but sure, yours works too.

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Hahaha!  At the end of the day we’re all just trying to highlight why our opinions are right. None of us really know how the season will shake out for any of the backs in question. But some of the stats and logic around their rankings/fantasy situations that have been put forward in this debate have been stellar. Everyone involved seems to know their fantasy stuff. 

 

And best of all everyone’s been civil and respectful. Usually these types of half opinion-half stats based debates devolve into me calling and petty can’t-agree-to-disagree pretty quickly. 

Edited by WestCoastMets
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14 minutes ago, WestCoastMets said:

Hahaha!  At the end of the day we’re all just trying to highlight why our opinions are right. None of us really know how the season will shake out for any of the backs in question. But some of the stats and logic around their rankings/fantasy situations that have been put forward in this debate have been stellar. Everyone involved seems to know their fantasy stuff. 

 

And best of all everyone’s been civil and respectful. Usually these types of half opinion-half stats based debates devolve into me calling and petty can’t-agree-to-disagree pretty quickly. 


I honestly don't know why you don't have more likes... your posts are gold (even if I don't agree with you on this debate).

Edited by ponza88

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Lol. I haven’t been on the site in a few years; majority of my posts were before likes became a thing on rw (2007-2014). The forums in 2014, 15 had turned into a bunch of petty arguements and name calling without much substance, facts or data to support opinions. Since I’ve been back this summer I’ve been pleasantly surprised with the changes. Must be good moderation but also a new influx of rw posters. 

 

Thanks for the props. Good to be back. 

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This guy is a playmaker, anyone who has watched him can’t deny it. 

 

I dont care care if he cant bench the bar. 

 

My only concern is if they don’t give him enough burn. 

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10 minutes ago, billydough said:

This guy is a playmaker, anyone who has watched him can’t deny it. 

 

I dont care care if he cant bench the bar. 

 

My only concern is if they don’t give him enough burn. 

Biggest concern with him is Gase. 

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The Dolphins' Week 1 depth lists Kenyan Drake "or" Frank Gore as the starter at running back.

It's semantics. Coach Adam Gase recently said "hopefully" Drake would get 15-20 carries and 6-8 targets per game. It's quite possible Gore draws the occasional "start" based on the package for the first play, but Drake should lead the backfield in both snaps and touches, hopefully by a significant margin. The Dolphins will be wasting their time if they feature Gore at Drake's expense.
Sep 4 - 2:23 PM

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5 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

from the tweet machine 

 

DmRindlV4AI2YT4.jpg:large

 

This is a great visual to those who believe that the ceiling for this guy is insane (me). His schedule also looks like a joke, admittedly on paper before the season has started.

 

as another poster has pointed out, it’s all about Gase. He’s an egomaniac and his Daniel Thomas-esque love affair with Damien Williams last year was brutal to watch. 

 

it makes zero sense for a team with no real aspirations this year to feature a 35-old back in Gore over a young and exciting back in Coffee-Cake. It makes none from a football or business sense. Which is precisely why Gase is probably thinking of doing just that. 

 

Having said that, I believe Drake’s upside is worth the anxiety. I’m expecting the first couple weeks to be frustrating beyond words, but after a 1/3 of the season has passed, and front office pressure and exhaustion has mounted, Drake will assume the reigns.

 

AND having now said that, I hope he never becomes a 23-carry Guy, but flutters around 18 carries and 5-6 targets. That seems like a solid number in order for him to produce while also keeping his stamina and body up to par.

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1 minute ago, rizon said:

 

This is a great visual to those who believe that the ceiling for this guy is insane (me). His schedule also looks like a joke, admittedly on paper before the season has started.

 

as another poster has pointed out, it’s all about Gase. He’s an egomaniac and his Daniel Thomas-esque love affair with Damien Williams last year was brutal to watch. 

 

it makes zero sense for a team with no real aspirations this year to feature a 35-old back in Gore over a young and exciting back in Coffee-Cake. It makes none from a football or business sense. Which is precisely why Gase is probably thinking of doing just that. 

 

Having said that, I believe Drake’s upside is worth the anxiety. I’m expecting the first couple weeks to be frustrating beyond words, but after a 1/3 of the season has passed, and front office pressure and exhaustion has mounted, Drake will assume the reigns.

 

AND having now said that, I hope he never becomes a 23-carry Guy, but flutters around 18 carries and 5-6 targets. That seems like a solid number in order for him to produce while also keeping his stamina and body up to par.

 

I agree and reached for this guy with my 3rd pick. There will be some frustrating games where Gore comes in and finishes off a drive but I think Miami goes up tempo all game and Drake has the best skill set for that type of offense. I had/have him flirting top 5 in RBs in my personal rankings. 

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3 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

I agree and reached for this guy with my 3rd pick. There will be some frustrating games where Gore comes in and finishes off a drive but I think Miami goes up tempo all game and Drake has the best skill set for that type of offense. I had/have him flirting top 5 in RBs in my personal rankings. 

 

giphy.gif

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I took Drake at the 36/37 turn in a 12 teamer on Sunday.   I really like the upside with this kid.  Watching him play last year he just looked the part of a 3 down lead back.  

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As expected. This backfield could be split like 60-40. Drake's upside is severely curtailed with the presence of Gore.

 

Quote

The Miami Dolphins official depth chart lists Kenyan Drake "or" Frank Gore as the team's starting running back heading into Week 1. The expectation is that both backs will be used in a weekly rotation but sophomore Drake should be the 1a to Gore's 1b. (The Miami Herald )

Fantasy Impact:

Not that long ago Drake was being talked up as a guy who Adam Gase would like to get 15 to 20 weekly carries. At 35, the fact that Gore is still in the league is remarkable, much less contending for a starting running back gig. Drake has far more appeal as both a runner and receiver but Gore could merit enough touches to be a slight nuisance to Drake's upside.

 

Edited by nonstopfan

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4 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

As expected. This backfield could be split like 60-40. Drake's upside is severely curtailed with the presence of Gore.

 

 

 

Optimally you would like to see something like

65/25/10(Ballage), with gore continuing to fade out as the youngsters continue to rise.    

 

But...60/40 works for now.   That’s still a lot of touches and Drake is an explosive player. 

Edited by Impreza178

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Gore might be rejuvenated coming back to Miami and have a few good games, but he's still 35 years old and is largely a plodder at this point. I think the Dolphins just signed him to help with attendance and the novelty of him coming back home. Gore getting the tough-yard touches and keeping Drake fresh is a good thing. I knew going into my draft Drake wasn't going to be anything close to a bell cow. I'd be fine with a 60/40 split and getting 3rd down work when the Dolphins are playing catch up. He's a home run hitter and only needs that one monster run or catch to pay dividends. 

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I am kind of sad I do not have more drake shares to be honest I kept taking royce freeman over him someties in the 30s. I do have a few shares and if he stays healthy and plays all 16 games I do not forsee an ajayi free fall like last year. I know december was a small sample size but he has more 3 down skills than ajayi to my eye (which is one of the reasons I have such few ajayi shares this year). I see top 12 upside in him with some weeks where he finishes the week as a top 5 rb. 

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4 minutes ago, mjagger42 said:

Frank Gore hasn't had a run like this since the Bush administration.  

 

 

And by Bush administration you're referring to the George H. W. Bush administration from 1989 when Gore first entered the NFL.

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On 9/3/2018 at 12:36 PM, WestCoastMets said:

And best of all everyone’s been civil and respectful. Usually these types of half opinion-half stats based debates devolve into me calling and petty can’t-agree-to-disagree pretty quickly. 

1

 

we self-regulate bro. 

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