DerrickHenrysCleats

Kenyan Drake 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, mjagger42 said:

Frank Gore hasn't had a run like this since the Bush administration.  

 

 

 

I got dizzy attempting to emulate that spin, therefore unsurprisingly tripping over my cat, prior to being pushed out of bounds.  

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8 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

we self-regulate bro. 

For sufficiently low values of "self-regulatie".

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6 hours ago, JSA2422 said:

from the tweet machine 

 

DmRindlV4AI2YT4.jpg:large

I'm a Drake fan...but I do believe most on that list had down years the following season.

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29 minutes ago, roughnecker101 said:

I sold my only share in package trade for Gurley.. I like the talent but Miami is gonna be a hot mess

 

See I don't get this. Tannehill is back. I can understand how the perception is that is a meaningless fact, but it's not. 

 

Tannehill is so damn boring no one even cares he's back in the saddle. Tannehill is better than Jay Cutler or the other zombies they were rolling out last year, just saying.

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1 minute ago, SuperJoint said:

 

See I don't get this. Tannehill is back. I can understand how the perception is that is a meaningless fact, but it's not. 

 

Tannehill is so damn boring no one even cares he's back in the saddle. Tannehill is better than Jay Cutler or the other zombies they were rolling out last year, just saying.

Tannehill is JAG and now with Landry gone who is it? I see stacked boxes in Drake's future 

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11 minutes ago, roughnecker101 said:

Tannehill is JAG and now with Landry gone who is it? I see stacked boxes in Drake's future 

 

Better than Cutler.

 

Stacked boxes - yeah no doubt but the fact is Tannehill doesn't turn the ball over. This is it for Tannehill - maybe he sucks but I have a hard time believing he's worse than Cutler.

 

Stacked boxes also mean more room in the intermediate defense for Drake to run like - you know - he did last year. Break a tackle or two, juke here juke there - Drake will get fed imo.

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10 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I'm a Drake fan...but I do believe most on that list had down years the following season.

The following seasons for the listed players:

Adrian Peterson: 1,437 total yards and 11 TD (right around a career average year)

DeAngelo Williams: 1,369 total yards and 7 TD (2nd best season of career)

Alvin Kamara: ???

Fred Jackson: 654 total yards and 4 TD (one of his worst career years, but was CJ Spiller's breakout with 1,700+ yards and 8 TD)

LeGarrette Blount: 929 total yards and 5 TD (slightly above his career average)

Derrick Ward: Changed teams and never had another solid year.

Jamaal Charles: 1,935 total yards and 8 TD (slightly above his career average)

CJ Spiller: 1,112 total yards and 2 TD (substantial down tick but still 2nd best season of career)

LeGarrette Blount: ???

Jonathan Stewart: 1,272 total yards and 11 TD (career year)

Bernard Pierce: 540 total yards and 2 TD (about the same production but less efficient)

Jay Ajayi: 1,031 total yards and 2 TD (down year but was traded halfway though the year and wasn't given the same workload right away)

Darren McFadden: Injured halfway though the year but was producing at a similar rate.

Michael Bush: 849 total yards and 8 TD (2nd best season of his career)

 

So of the 12 players listed (not including Kamara and 2017 Blount) only 4 had years that were "down years" which means over 66% of those players still had season in line with their career averages (or slightly better).

 

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7 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

 

Better than Cutler.

 

Stacked boxes - yeah no doubt but the fact is Tannehill doesn't turn the ball over. This is it for Tannehill - maybe he sucks but I have a hard time believing he's worse than Cutler.

 

Stacked boxes also mean more room in the intermediate defense for Drake to run like - you know - he did last year. Break a tackle or two, juke here juke there - Drake will get fed imo.

 

Frank Gore will definitely be a huge asset as well with all of the pre George Bush Administration experience. He'll be able to split the workload and help Drake :)

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42 minutes ago, munde53 said:

The following seasons for the listed players:

Adrian Peterson: 1,437 total yards and 11 TD (right around a career average year)

DeAngelo Williams: 1,369 total yards and 7 TD (2nd best season of career)

Alvin Kamara: ???

Fred Jackson: 654 total yards and 4 TD (one of his worst career years, but was CJ Spiller's breakout with 1,700+ yards and 8 TD)

LeGarrette Blount: 929 total yards and 5 TD (slightly above his career average)

Derrick Ward: Changed teams and never had another solid year.

Jamaal Charles: 1,935 total yards and 8 TD (slightly above his career average)

CJ Spiller: 1,112 total yards and 2 TD (substantial down tick but still 2nd best season of career)

LeGarrette Blount: ???

Jonathan Stewart: 1,272 total yards and 11 TD (career year)

Bernard Pierce: 540 total yards and 2 TD (about the same production but less efficient)

Jay Ajayi: 1,031 total yards and 2 TD (down year but was traded halfway though the year and wasn't given the same workload right away)

Darren McFadden: Injured halfway though the year but was producing at a similar rate.

Michael Bush: 849 total yards and 8 TD (2nd best season of his career)

 

So of the 12 players listed (not including Kamara and 2017 Blount) only 4 had years that were "down years" which means over 66% of those players still had season in line with their career averages (or slightly better).

 

"down year"  from the previous year, not career average.

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9 hours ago, psygolf said:

"down year"  from the previous year, not career average.

Saying someone had a "down year" from the year prior is extremely arbitrary. So if someone rushes for 100 less yards from the year prior is that a down year? 

 

Saying Adrian Peterson had a "down year" after his 2012 season where he had over 2,300 yards yards (historic/career year) to his 2013 season where he had over 1,400 yards (right around his career average) isn't really a fair assessment. 

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32 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Saying someone had a "down year" from the year prior is extremely arbitrary. So if someone rushes for 100 less yards from the year prior is that a down year? 

 

Saying Adrian Peterson had a "down year" after his 2012 season where he had over 2,300 yards yards (historic/career year) to his 2013 season where he had over 1,400 yards (right around his career average) isn't really a fair assessment. 

I do not see how it isn't "fair"

 

Can you acknowledge that these top yac years are never repeated at least-?

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10 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

 

Better than Cutler.

 

Stacked boxes - yeah no doubt but the fact is Tannehill doesn't turn the ball over. This is it for Tannehill - maybe he sucks but I have a hard time believing he's worse than Cutler.

 

Stacked boxes also mean more room in the intermediate defense for Drake to run like - you know - he did last year. Break a tackle or two, juke here juke there - Drake will get fed imo.

 

By how much though?  At least Cutler would chuck it and try to hit Parker deep.  

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8 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

By how much though?  At least Cutler would chuck it and try to hit Parker deep.  

 

Doesn't matter when it never works.  

 

The offense might be better this year with Gesicki and Tannehill.  

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1 minute ago, SpartanEric said:

 

Doesn't matter when it never works.  

 

The offense might be better this year with Gesicki and Tannehill.  

 

I'd argue it does.  The defense isn't going to just let Parker get behind them for a deep shot thinking "Cutler will miss him anyway."  They still have to run with the WRs

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30 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I do not see how it isn't "fair"

 

Can you acknowledge that these top yac years are never repeated at least-?

If you can find accurate stats for yards after contact the following year for each player. I'm trying to find a site that lists yards after contact for each season but I haven't been able to.

 

Just because they did not have a top 15 season over the past 10 years for yards after contact does not mean they "never repeated." Do the rushing leader from year to year remain the same? The answer is no, but that does not mean they had a "down year" the following year. For all we know all of those players averaged 3.43 YAC per attempt the following year and just barely fell off of the list. 

 

All that list shows is that Drake was great after contact last season nothing more nothing less. 

 

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I'd argue it does.  The defense isn't going to just let Parker get behind them for a deep shot thinking "Cutler will miss him anyway."  They still have to run with the WRs

 

I think the Dolphins are a much stronger team this year, offensively.  Tannehill gets a bad rap - he isn't horrible.  Amendola, Stills, Parker, etc....they have plenty of decent WRs.  Gesicki could instantly make an impact.  O-Line is sufficient.  I like everything that is going on with the Dolphins - not in love though, it is okay.

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I'd argue it does.  The defense isn't going to just let Parker get behind them for a deep shot thinking "Cutler will miss him anyway."  They still have to run with the WRs

 

So is your point that with Tannehill now behind center, the D is going to let WRs go free on any route past 10-15 yards?

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Drake was not high on my list of RB's to draft, but with a late pick and a number of good RB's gone, I had to pick him up. Not thrilled, since he's a Dolphin.

 

Tannehill is who he is - a QB2 with a great game here and there.

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I'd argue it does.  The defense isn't going to just let Parker get behind them for a deep shot thinking "Cutler will miss him anyway."  They still have to run with the WRs

 

not like they needed to scheme specifically for Parker - Stills got more coverage rolled over than Parker. Outside of a few trash time drives, the Parker and Cutler connection was non-existent nor respected.. (I owned Parker *rip). Even if we agree that the defense did respect the deep ball it still didn't make up for the 7-8 drive killing throws Cutler would attempt in a game. I'd take an extra man in the box if it means 3 or 4 extended drives a game. This is why I expect a large uptick in plays per game this season. 

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Like him as solid RB2 around the 3/4 turn, maybe even late 4th if you got lucky. He is a good bet to break quite a few home runs, and winning your week. He will be active in the checkdown game, assuming the Fins play from behind very often, so a nice floor too.

 

Only thing I question are TDs. Will Gore be the designated goal line RB? Would be happy if they at least split goal line duties. On a more positive note, I think Drake could make up for a potential lack of goal line carries with scores from further out in the red zone.

 

His dynamic style and game breaking ability remind me of young slasher Darren McFadden.

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2 hours ago, munde53 said:

If you can find accurate stats for yards after contact the following year for each player. I'm trying to find a site that lists yards after contact for each season but I haven't been able to.

 

Just because they did not have a top 15 season over the past 10 years for yards after contact does not mean they "never repeated." Do the rushing leader from year to year remain the same? The answer is no, but that does not mean they had a "down year" the following year. For all we know all of those players averaged 3.43 YAC per attempt the following year and just barely fell off of the list. 

 

All that list shows is that Drake was great after contact last season nothing more nothing less. 

 

We all draft based on the projections of the upcoming season...you posted a stat that has a 99% chance of regressing,  nothing more, nothing less.

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10 minutes ago, psygolf said:

We all draft based on the projections of the upcoming season...you posted a stat that has a 99% chance of regressing,  nothing more, nothing less.

I guess we're going to have to agree to disagree. 

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drakes going to have a huge year, it will actually benefit him if gore can help take some carries during the season.  drake has never been a bellcow in his career, even in high school but that doesnt mean he cant be effective.  i actually prefer him get less work instead of all these carries that will wear him down.

Edited by RUGOO

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1 hour ago, nromn said:

 

So is your point that with Tannehill now behind center, the D is going to let WRs go free on any route past 10-15 yards?

 

No, my point is that w/Tannehill the O isn't going to call many 10-15+ yd routes.

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1 hour ago, JSA2422 said:

 

not like they needed to scheme specifically for Parker - Stills got more coverage rolled over than Parker. Outside of a few trash time drives, the Parker and Cutler connection was non-existent nor respected.. (I owned Parker *rip). Even if we agree that the defense did respect the deep ball it still didn't make up for the 7-8 drive killing throws Cutler would attempt in a game. I'd take an extra man in the box if it means 3 or 4 extended drives a game. This is why I expect a large uptick in plays per game this season. 

 

Good point on Stills - I just named the first WR on the Phins that came to mind and it was Parker because I also owned him last year (RIP x2)

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