thebrowns

2018 Rookie WR Class

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2 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Ok...but he has to be drafted in the same area as Cobbs.   The one with the lesser FF pts as a rookie leaves the board for the entire offseason 

 

I cant predict where players get drafted, I’d rather do a long term bet on a player I like since Keke could easily have a redshirt type first year if he’s buried on the depth chart. Josh Reynolds, guy I love, buried on the depth chart. Typically only rounds 1-3 WR’s see much/some playing time their rookie year. Team/fit/coaches have a big say on a rookie WR’s first year. Hell look at John Ross or even Godwin behind Jackson year 1. I’d rather make a bet such as Cobbs never gets more than 50 receptions OR 600 yards in his first four seasons. Even though I do think Cobbs could potentially develop by year 3 or 4 into a contributor on an offense. Maybe like a Malcolm Floyd. 

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15 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I cant predict where players get drafted, I’d rather do a long term bet on a player I like since Keke could easily have a redshirt type first year if he’s buried on the depth chart. Josh Reynolds, guy I love, buried on the depth chart. Typically only rounds 1-3 WR’s see much/some playing time their rookie year. Team/fit/coaches have a big say on a rookie WR’s first year. Hell look at John Ross or even Godwin behind Jackson year 1. I’d rather make a bet such as Cobbs never gets more than 50 receptions OR 600 yards in his first four seasons. Even though I do think Cobbs could potentially develop by year 3 or 4 into a contributor on an offense. Maybe like a Malcolm Floyd. 

That's the conundrum, I think my guy will get playing time right away, you have no confidence in your guy(s)

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2 minutes ago, psygolf said:

That's the conundrum, I think my guy will get playing time right away, you have no confidence in your guy(s)

 

I have as much confidence in my guys as I possibly can, but at the end of the day it’d be naive to think a fourth/fifth rounder gets immediate playing time before figuring out what team he’s on...  but betting that Cobbs doesn’t get playing much playing time in his rookie season is a surefire bet. But who knows maybe he ends up on the Bears and three wide receivers in front of him get injured and he finishes the season with 300 yards. 

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1 minute ago, boltup15 said:

 

I have as much confidence in my guys as I possibly can, but at the end of the day it’d be naive to think a fourth/fifth rounder gets immediate playing time before figuring out what team he’s on...  but betting that Cobbs doesn’t get playing much playing time in his rookie season is a surefire bet. But who knows maybe he ends up on the Bears and three wide receivers in front of him get injured and he finishes the season with 300 yards. 

If he's the only bear add, he would be their best wr

Edited by psygolf

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1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

 

Player I’m lower on than most: Christian Kirk, Golden Tate comparisons are getting old. He doesn’t have nearly as much talent as Tate had entering the NFL and isn’t nearly as good at breaking tackles. Kirk to me is just your average slot receiver at best who has poor hands (and don’t want you want good hands in your slot receiver) and subpar route running. Give me Anthony Miller as my slot receiver instead. 

 

 

Maybe it's bias (Lord knows I like my Aggies), but Miller double clutched a lot more balls from what I've seen than Kirk.  Kirk needs to work on catching ball away from his body more often, but natural talent is there.  He's a Saquon Barkley level work ethic type of guy too.  Much better WR than Reynolds, who you like.  As long as he goes somewhere with a greater level of coaching than Hue Jackson, I think his floor is a Jarvis Landry type role, where he's an elite slot receiver.  If he refines his route running a little more, and does attack the ball rather than letting it come into his body, he has legitimate OBJ potential.  If we're just keeping this within the realm of A&M, so my bias is gone, I think he's the most talented WR to come out of A&M in the last decade.  If Evans wasn't 6'5", it wouldn't be close.

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i would love to see what a scouting report would have said about fred biletnikoff. al davis said that fred was the greatest wr he ever saw. that included some GOOD ones... hahahahahahaha sometimes you just cant trust the spread sheets and how fast they run the 40.(john ross). sometimes they just got it and in the right circumstance they get it. (adam theilen). i am more on where they land and what their opportunity will be in there nfl offenses.

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43 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

 

 

Maybe it's bias (Lord knows I like my Aggies), but Miller double clutched a lot more balls from what I've seen than Kirk.  Kirk needs to work on catching ball away from his body more often, but natural talent is there.  He's a Saquon Barkley level work ethic type of guy too.  Much better WR than Reynolds, who you like.  As long as he goes somewhere with a greater level of coaching than Hue Jackson, I think his floor is a Jarvis Landry type role, where he's an elite slot receiver.  If he refines his route running a little more, and does attack the ball rather than letting it come into his body, he has legitimate OBJ potential.  If we're just keeping this within the realm of A&M, so my bias is gone, I think he's the most talented WR to come out of A&M in the last decade.  If Evans wasn't 6'5", it wouldn't be close.

 

I’ll disagree on the Kirk vs Miller double clutch balls note you said. I’ve watched a lot of both of their games and Miller catches away from his body more often than Kirk and makes a lot more catches especially when in the open in the middle than Kirk. 

 

Kirk vs Odell. I’m sorry but I don’t see one similarity between the two. I can’t think of one thing Kirk is better than Odell at. Odell is more sudden, quick, better hands, elusive, a better deep threat, faster, better in contested catches, etc. 

 

Landry is his floor? Landry has been a top 15 ppr wr over the last four or three years. Let’s use floor in the proper sense. Landry is his ceiling in two to three years if he ends up in a perfect role. 

 

He really needs to attack the ball more and refine his route running. But his athleticism isn’t fully there and he’s not as great “after the catch” as most people say. Once a lot of his games in a row and you’ll notice he doesn’t break nearly as many tackles as Miller. 

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33 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I’ll disagree on the Kirk vs Miller double clutch balls note you said. I’ve watched a lot of both of their games and Miller catches away from his body more often than Kirk and makes a lot more catches especially when in the open in the middle than Kirk. 

 

Kirk vs Odell. I’m sorry but I don’t see one similarity between the two. I can’t think of one thing Kirk is better than Odell at. Odell is more sudden, quick, better hands, elusive, a better deep threat, faster, better in contested catches, etc. 

 

Landry is his floor? Landry has been a top 15 ppr wr over the last four or three years. Let’s use floor in the proper sense. Landry is his ceiling in two to three years if he ends up in a perfect role. 

 

He really needs to attack the ball more and refine his route running. But his athleticism isn’t fully there and he’s not as great “after the catch” as most people say. Once a lot of his games in a row and you’ll notice he doesn’t break nearly as many tackles as Miller. 

http://www.espn.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/93435/todd-mcshays-first-mock-ravens-select-baby-beckham-in-first-round

 

While I agree that Beckham, arguably the second most talented WR in the game, is better than Kirk at everything (except attitude), I'm not the only one seeing shades of one in the other.  As far as after the catch, you don't get 6 punt return TDs in a 3 year career if you aren't electric with the ball in your hands (the only people ahead of him on the all time list played 4 years).  There are plays you could argue that maybe he could have turned it back and done differently.  I recently read a scouting report showing it on tape, but they chose a play where he chose to lower his shoulder and guarantee the first down. The only thing I hesitate on is the tendency to body catch. 

 

My floor is how certain I am that he's an elite slot receiver talent at worst.  Barring injury or absolutely horrible coaching, I expect him to be at least as good as Jarvis Landry in terms of real football by the end of this third season (I'm in dynasty mode.  None of these guys are on my radar for redraft).  Maybe he goes to Carolina and doesn't fit well with Cam.  Maybe he goes to Cleveland and random QB #37 can't throw the ball accurately past the pocket.   Fantasy is a fickle mistress I'm not going to predict.  But on field, with his athleticism, toughness, and work ethic, he is the real deal.  

 

It's fine if you and everyone else doubt it.  Drives down the price for me.  

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3 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

My floor is how certain I am that he's an elite slot receiver talent at worst.

 

That’s just crazy. You’re going to be really disappointed. 

 

4 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

As far as after the catch, you don't get 6 punt return TDs in a 3 year career if you aren't electric with the ball in your hands (the only people ahead of him on the all time list played 4 years). 

 

I can give you a list of thousands of players who had many punt and kick return TD’s and didn’t amount to anything... Being good with the ball in your hands does not equal being a good WR...

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23 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

ttp://www.espn.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/93435/todd-mcshays-first-mock-ravens-select-baby-beckham-in-first-round

 

While I agree that Beckham, arguably the second most talented WR in the game, is better than Kirk at everything (except attitude), I'm not the only one seeing shades of one in the other

 

There is nothing remotely similar between Beckham and Kirk. McShay has an awful track record with Wr’s, I would take his take with a grain of salt. Manziel is the best QB in the draft right?

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On 2/2/2018 at 11:00 PM, thebrowns said:

I want to start talking about the 2018 WR rookie class, now that we are to the FF offseason. I find it helpful to have a feel for players prior to knowing they when and where of the draft. Fit will determine ultimate value; this conversation is about the overall talent of players and their potential to succeed. The assumption is that they will land in an average spot. Neither the outlier ideal nor outlier flawed fit. 

 

This is my initial list. What push back do you have? Who is overrated? Who needs to be moved up? Disclosure: I value youth - size - hands - athleticism - technical skill - production in that order. (eventually fit will be king) This helped me grab JuJu last year. It doesn't always work out well for me; notice that it has greatly affected how I see players like Calvin Ridley and Anthony Miller (he's old). 

 

 

1 WR Courtland Sutton SMU
2 WR Auden Tate Florida State
3 WR Christian Kirk Texas A&M
4 WR Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
5 WR Michael Gallup Colorado St
6 WR DJ Moore Maryland
7 WR Richie James Middle Tennesse St
8 WR Tre'Quan Smith UCF
9 WR Allen Lazard Iowa St
10 WR James Washington Oklahoma State
11 WR Calvin Ridley Alabama
12 WR Simmie Cobbs Indiana
13 WR Deontay Burnett USC
14 WR Antonio Callaway Florida
15 WR Deon Cain Clemson
16 WR Jaleel Scott New Mexico
17 WR Jake Wieneke South Dakota ST
18 WR DJ Chark LSU
19 WR Jordan Lasley UCLA
20 WR Darren Carrington Utah
21 WR DaeSean Hamilton Penn State
22 WR Cedrick Wilson Boise ST
23 WR Anthony Miller Memphis ???
24 WR Jester Weah Pittsburgh
25 WR J'Mon Moore Missouri
26 WR Trey Quinn SMU
27 WR Brandon Shed Hobart

 

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9 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

That’s just crazy. You’re going to be really disappointed. 

 

 

I can give you a list of thousands of players who had many punt and kick return TD’s and didn’t amount to anything... Being good with the ball in your hands does not equal being a good WR...

When you say he's not athletic and not good with the ball in his hands, that's a relevant data point, especially against those criticisms.  You want to say he needs to catch with his hands more often, or improve his route running, or make more contested catches, etc, I'd agree that's not a good rebuttal.  

 

But when I have the chance to get a guy that came into a crowded WR corps and grabbed a 30% percent market share at 18 years old, and never finished below a 28% share, who won't turn 22 until the playoff push of his rookie season, and who has an absolutely sterling work ethic with no character red flags?  A guy who as a freshman drew comparisons to Beckham from NFL scouts?  I'm going to be very high on that player. 

 

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2 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

A guy who as a freshman drew comparisons to Beckham from NFL scouts?  I'm going to be very high on that player. 

 

Those scouts probably don’t have a job anymore if they’re comparing (compared) Kirk to Beckham...

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36 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Those scouts probably don’t have a job anymore if they’re comparing (compared) Kirk to Beckham...

WEAKNESSES

 Adequate height. Lacks elite top-end speed to separate vertically. Could stand to polish the finer points of his route running. Inconsistent making contested grabs -- can be out-muscled in a crowd. Has some concentration drops. Can improve as a blocker. Was not an impactful punt returner. Was held in check by Florida and Alabama.

 

 

WEAKNESSES

 Lacks size. Not tall and does not possess enough bulk at this time. Needs to add strength to more effectively beat press coverage and battled for the ball in the air. Route running skills could use some refinement. Needs to become more consistent catching the ball in a crowd.

 

 

WEAKNESSES

 [______] is undersized and it shows when he blocks in the run game. He has a tough time breaking down and getting hands on a defensive back and using strength to hold on thereafter. He is a deep threat and has production there but is not a reliable short-to-intermediate throwing option.

 

 

WEAKNESSES

 Thin build with tight skin. Frame needs more strength, but may not be able to get there. Long, press corners cause hesitation in his release. Hasn't learned to use hands as press counter. Too easily impeded by contact. Routes can be redirected by quality bump and run talent. Inconsistent using body positioning to leverage target area along deep sideline. Despite natural hands, struggles with focus drops when he senses a hitter nearby. Had 20 drops over three seasons. Scouts question toughness to catch in NFL traffic. Dances after catch on hitches rather than getting it upfield. Runs after catch can be thwarted immediately by first contact.

 

 

WEAKNESSES

 Doesn't show desired burst into routes to gain separation. Quicker than fast. Has below average catch radius. Generally needs throws near his frame. Hindered by trail coverage down the field due to lack of length. Needs to use strength to combat tight coverage underneath rather than allowing defender to crowd him. Benefitted from variety of rub routes that got him wide open. Needs to play with better knee bend. Made some questionable decisions to field the ball as punt returner.

 

 

WEAKNESSES

 Has a fairly lean frame -- could stand to bulk up and get stronger in order to combat the jam. Lacks elite explosiveness and top-end speed -- does not have an extra gear to take the top off. Average line release, acceleration and suddenness. Could struggle to separate vs. quick-twitch cornerbacks. Large percentage of catches are contested. Lacks ideal height and is not a great leaper. Started just 12 career games.

 

 

WEAKNESSES

 Short stepper. Pops straight up before breaking route off and could be challenged by zone corners looking to disrupt his momentum with redirects. Routes carry wasted motion with excessive arm and upper body action. Might be quicker than fast. Outstanding focus on deep throws turns into shoddy concentration on short ones. Will drop and double catch simple, short throws. Ball security is a concern after the catch with five career fumbles.

 

 

Care to play guess the receivers? 4 active NFL players who have all finished as a WR1 at least once, and 3 current prospects.   

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1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

 

That’s just crazy. You’re going to be really disappointed. 

 

 

I can give you a list of thousands of players who had many punt and kick return TD’s and didn’t amount to anything... Being good with the ball in your hands does not equal being a good WR...

 

Jmo but I agree with the Landry skill set comp.  Elite slot at worst as long as he stops body catching (assuming opportunity/targets).

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15 hours ago, boltup15 said:

Very preliminary top 10 from what I have seen so far.

 

Tier 1

1. Calvin Ridley

2. Auden Tate

3. James Washington

 

Tier 2

4. Courtland Sutton

 

Tier 3

5. DJ Moore

6. Michael Gallup

7. Keke Coutee

8. Anthony Miller

9. Dante Pettis

10. Christian Kirk

 

Ranking I hate: Courtland Sutton at 4, I think he should be lower, he really needs to work on his hands. A lot of risk/reward, could end up like Brandon Marshall at best but has massive bust potential. 

 

Ranking I’m at odds with: Auden Tate at 2 vs. 1 over Ridley. Auden Tate is who people want Sutton to be. He has good short area quickness and has unbelievable hands unlike Sutton. Can really jump up and pin point the ball in the end zone. 

 

Player I’m higher than most on: Keke Coutee. He could be something really special. He will at least be a contributor to an offense. Hopefully he ends up in the right system but it might take a couple years before he blows up. I might be too low on him but we’ll see in a couple years. 

 

Player I’m lower on than most: Christian Kirk, Golden Tate comparisons are getting old. He doesn’t have nearly as much talent as Tate had entering the NFL and isn’t nearly as good at breaking tackles. Kirk to me is just your average slot receiver at best who has poor hands (and don’t want you want good hands in your slot receiver) and subpar route running. Give me Anthony Miller as my slot receiver instead. 

 

Guy who missed top 10: ESB, has upside due to fluidity and size, but he’s overrated. 

 

Probably gunna move Tre’Quan Smith up, reminds me a bit of Marvin Jones. Long arms makes contested catches really well and good deep, pretty fast, just needs to improve on getting out of breaks quicker. Jordan Lasley could creep in too, he plays fast, similar build and skill set to Juju. 

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23 hours ago, boltup15 said:

Anyone know where I can find any game play of Korey Robertson? 

Youtube, but all that I've found are highlights, so.......

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Jaleel Scott - check out Matt Waldman’s recent boiler room on him. Alshon type upside. Massive, fluid, and incredible at the catch point. 

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57 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

Jaleel Scott - check out Matt Waldman’s recent boiler room on him. Alshon type upside. Massive, fluid, and incredible at the catch point. 

Game on...Scott vs Simmie.

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On 2/18/2018 at 7:28 AM, boltup15 said:

Anyone know where I can find any game play of Korey Robertson? 

Just type in Southern Miss Football vs...  into Youtube

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5 hours ago, psygolf said:

Just type in Southern Miss Football vs...  into Youtube

 

I did and nothing popped up. That’s usually my go to. 

 

5 hours ago, psygolf said:

Game on...Scott vs Simmie.

 

Scott vs Cobbs, I love it. 

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