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Alvin Kamara 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Except, as I've demonstrated several times throughout this thread, if you drop his efficiency by 35% (7.7 to 5.0) and cut his TDs in half (13 to 6 or 7) - very large production cuts - he's still going to be around rb8-12.

How much do you think his efficiency goes down?  Give us a number

 

wasn't the discussion more along the lines of he should be a mid first rounder like ,5,6,7,8.  so based the theoretical regression numbers he should be taken in the later half of the first, not the middle of the first.  the other guy calling him an rb2 is clearly exargerrating a bit and discounting him too much but we shouldn't elevate him up too high either.  back half of the first round is his sweet spot to me.  going earlier is a gamble and betting on long odds of a repeat.

 

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1 hour ago, Under500Forever said:

 

I know it’s usually a terrible thing to do but a guy in my league last year started Kamara and Ingram every week (after week 5 or 6) and it seemed like he was getting 40-50 points between them almost every week in PPR. 

It worked last year.

It's not usually a terrible thing...if there are 2 good fantasy RBs on a team (there are usually about 2 teams with this every year) then a. they're obviously startable (like Kamara and Ingram, or Freeman and Coleman) and b. the #2 guy is usually undervalued in drafts because of the faulty logic that guy posted...

Edited by confusedmrkrabs
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26 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

wasn't the discussion more along the lines of he should be a mid first rounder like ,5,6,7,8.  so based the theoretical regression numbers he should be taken in the later half of the first, not the middle of the first.  the other guy calling him an rb2 is clearly exargerrating a bit and discounting him too much but we shouldn't elevate him up too high either.  back half of the first round is his sweet spot to me.  going earlier is a gamble and betting on long odds of a repeat.

 

I don't think it'd necessarily be a mistake to take him as high as 6th, or even 5th... in fact, I think he's got a good chance to outscore Bell this year, though I wouldn't bet on it.

Kamara as the 5th or 6th RB makes sense, but personally I wouldn't take Fournette, Gordon, Howard, or any others ahead of him.

And the regression numbers are, at this point, exactly theoretical.  We don't have anything to compare his 2017 numbers to because that's the only year he's played.

The negative regression argument boils down to: "He was too efficient last year, so he's not worth that high a pick this year."

Okay, I get that to an extent, but it's as illogical as it is logical.  Alvin Kamara has only played one season in the league, so we have to project him based on that season's statistics and the eye test.

My eyes tell me he's a comparable player and talent to Marshall Faulk, and I could definitely imagine Marshall Faulk averaging 7 yards per touch for a few years in today's NFL.

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Anyway...back to Kamara. I haven't read through this thread, but I'm really interested to see what he's going to do with Ingram on the sidelines for the first four games. As a Saints fan, I'm excited to see if he can prove that he's a legit lead back and not just a complimentary piece. 

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Any reason to think ingram will be traded mid season?

 

Its possible, but why would anyone trade for a RB coming off a PED suspension in his age-29 season on the last year of his contract?

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Just now, joshua18 said:

 

Its possible, but why would anyone trade for a RB coming off a PED suspension in his age-29 season on the last year of his contract?

 

True, it could be situational for a team pushing for the playoffs. I mean, a team DID sign adrian peterson in 2018....anything can happen

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Its possible, but why would anyone trade for a RB coming off a PED suspension in his age-29 season on the last year of his contract?

 

because Kamara owners still don’t want to admit they are drafting a timeshare RB with a top 10 pick 

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2 hours ago, confusedmrkrabs said:

It's not usually a terrible thing...if there are 2 good fantasy RBs on a team (there are usually about 2 teams with this every year) then a. they're obviously startable (like Kamara and Ingram, or Freeman and Coleman) and b. the #2 guy is usually undervalued in drafts because of the faulty logic that guy posted...

 

It usually is a bad thing, Ingram and Kamara are the exception. Freeman and Coleman don’t even come close to what Kamara and Ingram did. 

I owned Coleman last year and he was ok. He still scored 8 TD’s and had 3 games (I think) when Freeman didn’t play (he scored 4TDs). The downside is He had 15 catches total after the Falcons week 5 bye (12 games). If he isn’t catching balls he isn’t going to do a heck of a lot with his 8 carries per game. 

 

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57 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

because Kamara owners still don’t want to admit they are drafting a timeshare RB with a top 10 pick 

Kamara was a league winner last year for most since he was damn near free, this season, his first round pedigree means you're paying above msrp, I expect a good return, but not league winning potential this season, unless you pair him with this seasons kamara

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46 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

It usually is a bad thing, Ingram and Kamara are the exception. Freeman and Coleman don’t even come close to what Kamara and Ingram did. 

I owned Coleman last year and he was ok. He still scored 8 TD’s and had 3 games (I think) when Freeman didn’t play (he scored 4TDs). The downside is He had 15 catches total after the Falcons week 5 bye (12 games). If he isn’t catching balls he isn’t going to do a heck of a lot with his 8 carries per game. 

 

Yeah... it isn't... but this has more to do with Ingram so let's just move on... 

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On 8/21/2018 at 5:54 PM, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Kamara was a league winner last year for most since he was damn near free, this season, his first round pedigree means you're paying above msrp, I expect a good return, but not league winning potential this season, unless you pair him with this seasons kamara

You shouldn’t be expecting anyone from the first round to be a league winner. 

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Just now, Gohawks said:

You shouldn’t be expecting anyone from the first round to be a league winner. 

Correct. For the most part those are the steady top tier guys that won't lose you your league. David Johnson definitely won me my league two years ago though. He fell in the 1st round to me at the 10th or 11th pick.

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Alvin Kamara rushed four times for 16 yards and a touchdown while adding 10 yards on one catch in the Saints' third preseason game.

Kamara dropped a would-be first down pass on the previous drive before responding with a score on the next possession. His touchdown notably came from inside the five-yard line with Mark Ingram watching from the sidelines. Kamara's overall production is due for regression given his unsustainable league-high 6.1 YPC last season, but he'll be an undeniable workhorse in the Saints' first four games sans Ingram. The latter is also losing four weeks of his contract year, potentially forcing the Saints' hand to move on and continue feeding Kamara, anyhow. He's unquestionably in the conversation as a top-five overall re-draft pick.
 
 
Hey RW blurb guy.
It's not really "notable" if you already know that Ingram isn't Kamara's touchdown vulture
 
 
Edited by Cotton Jones
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On 8/21/2018 at 8:04 PM, SadFaceHappy said:

I don't think it'd necessarily be a mistake to take him as high as 6th, or even 5th... in fact, I think he's got a good chance to outscore Bell this year, though I wouldn't bet on it.

Kamara as the 5th or 6th RB makes sense, but personally I wouldn't take Fournette, Gordon, Howard, or any others ahead of him.

And the regression numbers are, at this point, exactly theoretical.  We don't have anything to compare his 2017 numbers to because that's the only year he's played.

The negative regression argument boils down to: "He was too efficient last year, so he's not worth that high a pick this year."

Okay, I get that to an extent, but it's as illogical as it is logical.  Alvin Kamara has only played one season in the league, so we have to project him based on that season's statistics and the eye test.

My eyes tell me he's a comparable player and talent to Marshall Faulk, and I could definitely imagine Marshall Faulk averaging 7 yards per touch for a few years in today's NFL.

This is a great post. I go back and forth with him as I will likely be in a position to chose between him, Barkley, and Fournette. 

 

So lets do the math for half point PPR!

 

Kamara (heavy negative regression):

180 carries at 4.5 YPC = 810

80 receptions at 8 YPR = 640

1450 total yards, lets say 8 TDs

233 FP

 

Fournette (slight positive regression):

330 carries at 4.3 YPC = 1419

50 receptions at 8 YPR = 400 

1819 total yards, lets say 12 TDs

278.9

 

The biggest difference is really the potential TDs and I actually think those numbers for Kamara (especially for receiving) are pretty low. Basically what I'm saying is even if he regresses hardcore in rushing efficiency and TDs he's still probably a top 10 back, assuming literally the exact same touches per game as last year with worse efficiency. 

 

I'm not the biggest Kamara guy but I think he's a arguably one of the safest picks in the first two rounds in that his ceiling was 2017 and his floor is still a RB1 even taking into account heavy negative regression in YPR/YPC/TDs and Ingram coming back. I also pause with him because almost every reputable fantasy expert has him ranked as RB5/6. Harris, Ciely, Koerner (has him ranked RB3 I think?). All of these guys are also super high on him. At a certain point, I've just got to think where there's smoke there's fire.

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I am one of the few rare birds who thinks his ceiling can be better than 2017. 

 

I think his ceiling is 1000/1000 17 tds. 

 

He could have some absolute monster games where he cracks a few long TD runs. 

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Loving that Yahoo has actually dropped him in their rankings. Used to be 6th I believe, now is 8th. Been seeing him go anywhere between Pick 6 - 10. Lots of people believing in OBJ, so might see him drop a tiny bit. Would be great value to anyone getting him in the 9 or 10 spot.

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6 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

Loving that Yahoo has actually dropped him in their rankings. Used to be 6th I believe, now is 8th. Been seeing him go anywhere between Pick 6 - 10. Lots of people believing in OBJ, so might see him drop a tiny bit. Would be great value to anyone getting him in the 9 or 10 spot.

wonder why hes dropping and who is taking his place. i know it's not saquon

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6 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

wonder why hes dropping and who is taking his place. i know it's not saquon

 

They've ranked Saquon higher than him, as well as Hopkins...

 

Hopkins is going to have a monster season if Watson stays healthy all year, so I get that. Barkley we just haven't seen enough "NFL time" yet, to know exactly what we're going to get.

 

Either way, it's great news for owners with picks #9-11...11 might be a stretch, but I've already seen Kamara go 9 and 10 a couple times in mock drafts today since Yahoo switched them.

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1 hour ago, Cotton Jones said:

wonder why hes dropping and who is taking his place. i know it's not saquon

Top 4 RBs

Brown

Barkley

Fournette

Gordon

Hopkins 

Odell

 

Not saying I would take all above Kamara but all have a legitimate case nor would I question any going above him. That would make him 11 overall. 

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Top 4 RBs

Brown

Barkley

Fournette

Gordon

Hopkins 

Odell

 

Not saying I would take all above Kamara but all have a legitimate case nor would I question any going above him. That would make him 11 overall. 

 

Agree. Brown, Barkley, Hopkins and OBJ have legitimate arguments to go over Kamara.

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8 hours ago, CORTEz said:

 

They've ranked Saquon higher than him, as well as Hopkins...

Yahoo refuses to be hamstrung by hamstring injuries when it comes to ranking RB's.

 

I don't know about you guys but if you are talking about fournette and gordon you should also be talking about CMC.

The questions about his volume have been answered. He's going to be at or near the same usage level as those other 2 guys, and he catches more passes.

If he's ranked early 2nd rd today on your favorite fantasy site's cheat sheet in a week from now he will be moved up to late 1st

Edited by Cotton Jones

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41 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

Yahoo refuses to be hamstrung by hamstring injuries when it comes to ranking RB's.

 

I don't know about you guys but if you are talking about fournette and gordon you should also be talking about CMC.

The questions about his volume have been answered. He's going to be at or near the same usage level as those other 2 guys, and he catches more passes.

If he's ranked early 2nd rd today on your favorite fantasy site's cheat sheet in a week from now he will be moved up to late 1st

 

 

So you figured this all out because of a few preseason games?

i highly doubt CMC is going to be an every down volume guy as fournette and gordon. he may have the same opportunity in terms of snaps but i don't see how he will be effective as getting the same rushing volume as them.

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