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Alshon Jeffery 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, ellie826 said:

 

When else has he missed games besides this year when he was recovering from shoulder surgery. Your post makes it sounds like he has a high chance of a season ending injury,which I’ve never heard of when describing Jeffery’s injury history, or he will miss games because of injury, which is something a lot of people say but I can’t seem to find where he is missing games because of soft tissue/lower body injuries. Been reading people say beware of alshons injury history and how he always missed games in Chicago because of soft tissue but I haven’t seen anything recently. 

 

Well he was always banged up and ailing in chicago so thats what people are referring to. Then his shoulder in philly. So I mean the risk is there. Google alshon jeffery injury chance and sportsinjurypredictor.com pops up. Its a pretty good site. Says he is a medium risk player and lists all his prior issues.

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10 minutes ago, ellie826 said:

 

When else has he missed games besides this year when he was recovering from shoulder surgery. Your post makes it sounds like he has a high chance of a season ending injury,which I’ve never heard of when describing Jeffery’s injury history, or he will miss games because of injury, which is something a lot of people say but I can’t seem to find where he is missing games because of soft tissue/lower body injuries. Been reading people say beware of alshons injury history and how he always missed games in Chicago because of soft tissue but I haven’t seen anything recently. 

 

He's played full seasons less than 50 percent of his career.

Edited by Kyle87

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1 minute ago, Kyle87 said:

 

He's played full seasons less than 50 percent of his career.

 

His last year in Chicago it was due to suspension, not injury. In 2017 he was playing hurt but managed to play all 19 games. He is a moderate injury risk but he came at a WR3 price with low-end WR1 potential. I have him in almost everywhere. 

 

Another reason he was faded was he, on the surface, appeared to be a candidate for regression. He finished as WR16 I believe last year but that was due to 9 TDs. He had only 57 receptions. What a lot of people didn't realize, or ignored, was he was top 15 in targets. His low reception total was driven by poor efficiency, which is not surprising given that it was his first time playing with Wentz and Foles. With more time spent with Wentz clearly that efficiency has rebounded.

 

Bottom line on Jeffrey: he will get legit number 1 WR volume, he is built for the red zone, and he has an elite QB. He also benefits from not having another strong WR, although he does have Ertz at TE, on the team (think Detroit or LA where the pie is sliced three ways). Yes, there is injury risk but it was baked into his cost. You likely have two strong WRs ahead of him and if you were able to also snag a WR like Sanders during the middle rounds or draft late/pick up a WR like Golladay you have more than enough to withstand any injury. 

 

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I don't think he's a WR1 because he rarely gets big yards. WR2 is perfect because of the red zone targets and his TD's...I'm enjoying him as my #3!!

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2 minutes ago, tpat30 said:

I don't think he's a WR1 because he rarely gets big yards. WR2 is perfect because of the red zone targets and his TD's...I'm enjoying him as my #3!!

Tend to agree with that. I see him as more of a high WR2.

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10 hours ago, Kyle87 said:

 

He's played full seasons less than 50 percent of his career.

 

2012 - missed a bunch of games

2013 - nothing

2014 - left week 1. Played in week 2 and rest of season

2015 - missed a bunch of games

2016 - had a couple injuries but didn’t miss any games

2017 - played full season

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Ace_King said:

 

His last year in Chicago it was due to suspension, not injury. In 2017 he was playing hurt but managed to play all 19 games. He is a moderate injury risk but he came at a WR3 price with low-end WR1 potential. I have him in almost everywhere. 

 

Another reason he was faded was he, on the surface, appeared to be a candidate for regression. He finished as WR16 I believe last year but that was due to 9 TDs. He had only 57 receptions. What a lot of people didn't realize, or ignored, was he was top 15 in targets. His low reception total was driven by poor efficiency, which is not surprising given that it was his first time playing with Wentz and Foles. With more time spent with Wentz clearly that efficiency has rebounded.

 

Bottom line on Jeffrey: he will get legit number 1 WR volume, he is built for the red zone, and he has an elite QB. He also benefits from not having another strong WR, although he does have Ertz at TE, on the team (think Detroit or LA where the pie is sliced three ways). Yes, there is injury risk but it was baked into his cost. You likely have two strong WRs ahead of him and if you were able to also snag a WR like Sanders during the middle rounds or draft late/pick up a WR like Golladay you have more than enough to withstand any injury. 

 

 

I didn’t know he was getting that many targets last year also. It definitely seems he will be one of the target hogs this year though. I read somehwhere his typical career efficiency was around 55% but last year it dropped to 45% and this year is 65%. So if he gets positive regression from last year he could definitely be a wr1. 

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16 hours ago, tpat30 said:

I don't think he's a WR1 because he rarely gets big yards. WR2 is perfect because of the red zone targets and his TD's...I'm enjoying him as my #3!!

We can say the same about Julio Jones because of the opposite, big yards and no TDs. Davante Adams is a good example of a true #1 WR.

Edited by ponchsox

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19.40 points! I’m so glad I didn’t listen to what was being said on here and went with my gut.  I hope this continues to be a good combo of Adams/Jeffery. Stay healthy please!

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11 minutes ago, Nah85 said:

19.40 points! I’m so glad I didn’t listen to what was being said on here and went with my gut.  I hope this continues to be a good combo of Adams/Jeffery. Stay healthy please!

csb!!

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19 hours ago, tpat30 said:

I don't think he's a WR1 because he rarely gets big yards. WR2 is perfect because of the red zone targets and his TD's...I'm enjoying him as my #3!!

csb!!!

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Lots of cool stories in here! Looks like the mods fell asleep at the wheel. Mine are usually removed within seconds. Let me sneak one in as well. Picked up Alshon late in the draft. He is currently second on my depth chart. I have Keenan Allen and Emmanuel Sanders starting with him. Took a chance on Jordan Reed late but snatched Ertz in the third. Nothing makes me smile more than seeing Wentz (whom I own) throw to Alshon then Ertz then Alshon then Ertz then Alshon then Ertz. But yeah, Alshon is a very good player and hopefully you find this post useful. 

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Had this guy last year and hated it. He looks great so far. Congrats to the Alshon  owners.

Edited by jsch08
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13 hours ago, ellie826 said:

 

I didn’t know he was getting that many targets last year also. It definitely seems he will be one of the target hogs this year though. I read somehwhere his typical career efficiency was around 55% but last year it dropped to 45% and this year is 65%. So if he gets positive regression from last year he could definitely be a wr1. 

 

Yeah he had 120 targets. 106 came in the first 13 games (Wentz got hurt in the final quarter of the 13th game) so he was on pace for 130 with Wentz. He clicked with Foles in the playoffs, but that was with high efficiency and moderate volume (18 targets in three games but that yielded 12 receptions for 219 yards and 3 TDs). 

 

His catch rate was 47.5% last year. For his career it is 56%, and that includes 50% in his rookie year. This also includes playing with bad QBs like Cutler later in his career, Barkley, etc. With Wentz he could get to 60% or so and with the targets he has a good shot at finishing with 75-80 receptions.

 

Quote

I don't think he's a WR1 because he rarely gets big yards. WR2 is perfect because of the red zone targets and his TD's...I'm enjoying him as my #3!!

 

That depends on what you consider big yards but I see what you are saying. Right now he is averaging 73 yards per game. That is on pace for 1,168 over 16 games. Last year he averaged only 49 yards in the regular season, but that was due to the inefficiency discussed above and him doing little in the three games with Foles at the end of the season. He does have a 1,421 yard season on his resume (plus 105 rushing yards) and followed that with 1,133 yards. In 2015 he got hurt but was averaging 90 yards per game (similar to his break 2013 season). In 2016 he was somewhere in the 85-90 yards per game range before Cutler got hurt. McCown and Barkley, for whatever reason, focused on White and then Meredith--whichever was the WR opposite Jeffrey.

 

Bottom line, he has shown he can be a 85-90 yard per game WR several times in the past. Do I expect that this year? No, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happens. I see him as a 70-75 yard per game guy this year, which would place around what Fitz and Michael Thomas were last year.

 

 

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They are using Alshon in many different ways. Wentz is getting better by the week. The defense is softer than expected. The run game is marginal at best. If teams are able to put up points against Philly, Alshon and Ertz WILL eat. Think about it, they didn't even have to push the pedal on the gas last game and Alshon scored twice. What happens when they face a team with a functioning O-Line? This offense is rising and Alshon is the CLEAR Alpha receiver. The yards will come.

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catch rate 

2017 - 47%(career is 55% but could have dropped due to torn labrum/no chemistry for 2017)

2018 - 58.8%(could see this staying higher than his career due to a better qb than his previous years)

 

Target share - Has gone up each game. 18 - 22.8 - 33.3

2017 - 21.6%

2018 - 23.96%

 

Red zone target share

2017 - 21.8%

2018 - 30.4%

 

Air yards

2017 - 5.0 per target

2018 - 5.4 per target

 

Yards per reception

2017 - 13.84

2018 - 14.4

 

YAC

2017 - 1.6

2018 - 3.1

 

Yards per route

2017 - 1.54

2018 - 2.0

 

Yards per target

2017 - 6.6

2018 - 8.5

 

Eagles plays/game

2017 - 66

2018 - 69

 

Pass ratio

2017 - 55.78

2018 - 64.82(since wentz came back. Probably not sustainable but considering Reich and DeFilippo are #1 and #2 he could go even higher. Can’t let your disciples show you up right?)

 

Current pace for 2018 then extrapolated for the full season

 

Eagles plays 1104

Passes 1104 x 64.82 = 715

Targets 715 x 23.96 = 171

Catches 171 x 58.8 = 100

Yards 100 x 14.4 = 1440

TDs are fluky but with his high red zone target share could definitely see him with 9 tds like last year(if he had played all 16)

 

Are these numbers likely? Probably not since the sample size is SO small but there are things that could help.

 

-Eagles are a pass funnel defense so they will probably have to score to keep up

-Target share has been going up every week so he is definitely a big part of their plans

-Played with a torn shoulder, which I’m guessing makes a big impact on playing wide receiver, so his bumps in efficiency could stay at a similar rate for most of these.

-Eagles have been very bad in 3rd downs and the red zone and could get better with Wentz getting better.

-No viable run game

-Plays in the slot 27% in 2018 vs 7.8% in 2017 which means they are scheming him into favorable matchups and away from shut down corners

-Jeffery could get better himself since he did miss all of camp and has barely practiced before jumping into the games

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, ellie826 said:

catch rate 

2017 - 47%(career is 55% but could have dropped due to torn labrum/no chemistry for 2017)

2018 - 58.8%(could see this staying higher than his career due to a better qb than his previous years)

 

Target share - Has gone up each game. 18 - 22.8 - 33.3

2017 - 21.6%

2018 - 23.96%

 

Red zone target share

2017 - 21.8%

2018 - 30.4%

 

Air yards

2017 - 5.0 per target

2018 - 5.4 per target

 

Yards per reception

2017 - 13.84

2018 - 14.4

 

YAC

2017 - 1.6

2018 - 3.1

 

Yards per route

2017 - 1.54

2018 - 2.0

 

Yards per target

2017 - 6.6

2018 - 8.5

 

Eagles plays/game

2017 - 66

2018 - 69

 

Pass ratio

2017 - 55.78

2018 - 64.82(since wentz came back. Probably not sustainable but considering Reich and DeFilippo are #1 and #2 he could go even higher. Can’t let your disciples show you up right?)

 

Current pace for 2018 then extrapolated for the full season

 

Eagles plays 1104

Passes 1104 x 64.82 = 715

Targets 715 x 23.96 = 171

Catches 171 x 58.8 = 100

Yards 100 x 14.4 = 1440

TDs are fluky but with his high red zone target share could definitely see him with 9 tds like last year(if he had played all 16)

 

Are these numbers likely? Probably not since the sample size is SO small but there are things that could help.

 

-Eagles are a pass funnel defense so they will probably have to score to keep up

-Target share has been going up every week so he is definitely a big part of their plans

-Played with a torn shoulder, which I’m guessing makes a big impact on playing wide receiver, so his bumps in efficiency could stay at a similar rate for most of these.

-Eagles have been very bad in 3rd downs and the red zone and could get better with Wentz getting better.

-No viable run game

-Plays in the slot 27% in 2018 vs 7.8% in 2017 which means they are scheming him into favorable matchups and away from shut down corners

-Jeffery could get better himself since he did miss all of camp and has barely practiced before jumping into the games

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great points. Other factors working in his favor are the apparent regression of Agholar and Wallace's injury. He doesn't have much legit comp for targets outside of Ertz and the running backs.

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Great game by Jeffery today. Wentz was looking his way a lot, especially on that last drive. Nearly had a huge reception but drew a PI as the corner basically had to tackle him before the ball got to him. 

 

How do we feel about him against the Jags? Their defense used to be great, now they seem to be pretty mediocre. Hopkins went for 50 and a TD on them. He is going to be tough to sit but the matchup isn’t the greatest. My main worry isn’t their defense, but the fact that Jags offense is so awful Philly won’t have to throw a whole lot. 

Edited by LionKid90

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29 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

Great game by Jeffery today. Wentz was looking his way a lot, especially on that last drive. Nearly had a huge reception but drew a PI as the corner basically had to tackle him before the ball got to him. 

 

How do we feel about him against the Jags? Their defense used to be great, now they seem to be pretty mediocre. Hopkins went for 50 and a TD on them. He is going to be tough to sit but the matchup isn’t the greatest. My main worry isn’t their defense, but the fact that Jags offense is so awful Philly won’t have to throw a whole lot. 

 

D. Hopkins was still held in check for the most part. Got the TD that saved his day.

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I drafted Jefferey late as my 5th WR. No one wanted him because he was hurt but my WR core is pretty strong, so I have just been sitting on him. Adams was on a bye this week, plugged Jefferey in and didn't even miss a beat! Sure, it wasn't 30 like Adams got me last week, but Im not complaining over 19 at all, especially when I have Mahomes, Hunt, Thielen, Cohen....Jefferey's points were just icing on the cake. 

Edited by Dexter75

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41 minutes ago, DezBryant88 said:

Match up proof.

 

Not really. He was held to 2 catches for 39 yards in week 5 against Minnesota with Rhodes on him. He gets Ramsey next week. I would temper my expectations. 

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6 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Not really. He was held to 2 catches for 39 yards in week 5 against Minnesota with Rhodes on him. He gets Ramsey next week. I would temper my expectations. 

 

Jacksonville sucks.

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