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Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook


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9 minutes ago, DiddleThatKitty said:

Some guys just traded gronk for lat Murray 

That's a terrible trade only because you can get more for Gronk based on his name alone. I just packaged him in a deal for Mixon. My reasoning is Gronk has looked slow and beat up all season. Every time he gets tackled I fear for his health and I think he does too. With Brady having weapons around him and an RB group getting healthier, I feel like Gronk is going to mainly be a decoy in most games.

 

I could be completely wrong but my eyes have told me so far that he lost a step.

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This is the best question you can possibly ask yourself. In any given draft scenario or strategy discussion, this is the question you should be asking yourself, and only you can decide what's bes

225 Fantasy points in 13 games.  He was averaging 17.3 Points Per Game. 4 WRs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  AB, Hop, OBJ, and K.Allen. 8 RBs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Kamar

31 minutes ago, Pigskingpin said:

I could be completely wrong but my eyes have told me so far that he lost a step.

So have everyone elses eyes. The only reason you got Mixon for anything plus Gronk is because the person you were trading with is a moron.

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26 minutes ago, JohnD said:

So have everyone elses eyes. The only reason you got Mixon for anything plus Gronk is because the person you were trading with is a moron.

How can you even make such a claim without knowing who the other player is?

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

How can you even make such a claim without knowing who the other player is?

@Pigskingpin will you let us in on who the other player was in the Gronk/Mixon trade. I'm assuming, based on your claim that you can get more on name value, it wasn't a very highly sought after player.

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Yo guys I didn't mean for this to spark an argument, and i'm not getting into the trade details because this isn't the place for it. I just brought it up to make a point that you should aim for more when trading Gronk because of his name.

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Get whatever you can for him.

 

Unless you can afford to carry him, he (big if) ..may do something for playoff fantasy teams.  I cant hold him for just that.

 

I think getting MVS would be a steal, perhaps L Mccoy or Watkins?     Thats about the level I see.

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30 minutes ago, Pigskingpin said:

Yo guys I didn't mean for this to spark an argument, and i'm not getting into the trade details because this isn't the place for it. I just brought it up to make a point that you should aim for more when trading Gronk because of his name.

Because you know JohnD is right. Sounds like the owner in your league is in fact a moron and good for you as you likely got a great deal.

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Everyone in this thread right now is very likely setting themselves up to eat crow in a couple weeks time. We are talking about an all time great at the position who is only 29 years old, playing with arguably the greatest QB of all time and the greatest coach of all time. You're dealing with a guy you likely drafted at a premium with the rightful expectation that he'd be at worst a top 3 TE given everything he has shown us in his incredibly successful career. Before you go shipping him off for marginal guys like MVS or (shudder) Lat Murray, let's pump the brakes a bit here.

 

Injuries have certainly mounted for Gronk and he hasn't looked like himself this year, that is true. Now with him at a bye week, it's clear owners are at a crossroads with Gronk. For me I like to look at the situation objectively and do my best given what I know to assign probabilities to potential outcomes. Is it possible we've seen the last of Gronk's dominance and he is now just another TE? Certainly it's possible. Is that more likely than him taking time to rest from injuries and coming back to resume his role as an extremely important weapon for the Patriots? I don't know. I do know it's not an overwhelming probability one way or the other. Certainly not enough to feel definite about anything.

 

What I do feel definite about is that at his best or even close to it Gronk will win you fantasy leagues. There are very few players with that potential and their names certainly aren't Marques or Latavius. His ceiling--in a barren wasteland for TEs this year no less--gives you a huge advantage, however likely you think it may be that he reaches that ceiling again. His floor is that of any other TE not named Ertz, Kelce, or Kittle. You aren't getting that advantage with any guy you are trading him for, period. You'd have to believe with absolute certainty that his best days are behind him to even consider trading him for top 20-30 options like the ones discussed in this thread, and to do that you'd have to be willing to take a gamble that really makes no sense to take.

 

Hang steady Gronk owners.

Edited by AnchorDown
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4 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

Everyone in this thread right now is very likely setting themselves up to eat crow in a couple weeks time. We are talking about an all time great at the position who is only 29 years old, playing with arguably the greatest QB of all time and the greatest coach of all time. You're dealing with a guy you likely drafted at a premium with the rightful expectation that he'd be at worst a top 3 TE given everything he has shown us in his incredibly successful career. Before you go shipping him off for marginal guys like MVS or (shudder) Lat Murray, let's pump the brakes a bit here.

 

Injuries have certainly mounted for Gronk and he hasn't looked like himself this year, that is true. Now with him at a bye week, it's clear owners are at a crossroads with Gronk. For me I like to look at the situation objectively and do my best given what I know to assign probabilities to potential outcomes. Is it possible we've seen the last of Gronk's dominance and he is now just another TE? Certainly it's possible. Is that more likely than him taking time to rest from injuries and coming back to resume his role as an extremely important weapon for the Patriots? I don't know. I do know it's not an overwhelming probability one way or the other. Certainly not enough to feel definite about anything.

 

What I do feel definite about is that at his best or even close to it Gronk will win you fantasy leagues. There are very few players with that potential and their names certainly aren't Marques or Latavius. His ceiling--in a barren wasteland for TEs this year no less--gives you a huge advantage, however likely you think it may be that he reaches that ceiling again. His floor is that of any other TE not named Ertz, Kelce, or Kittle. You aren't getting that advantage with any guy you are trading him for, period. You'd have to believe with absolute certainty that his best days are behind him to even consider trading him for top 20-30 options like the ones discussed in this thread, and to do that you'd have to be willing to take a gamble that really makes no sense to take.

 

Hang steady Gronk owners.

The issue was never his talent and the GOAT throwing him the ball. The issue is his body has a lot of wear on it and he is visibly slower and less physical than he has ever been. 

 

Some can argue that even a Gronk at 80% is better than most TEs in the league but I'm not willing to take that risk this late in the game when I can still get some value for him. 

 

I may end up eating crow on the Gronk situation but the potential return from a decent trade can make up for it.

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17 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

 

What I do feel definite about is that at his best or even close to it Gronk will win you fantasy leagues. There are very few players with that potential and their names certainly aren't Marques or Latavius. His ceiling--in a barren wasteland for TEs this year no less--gives you a huge advantage, however likely you think it may be that he reaches that ceiling again. His floor is that of any other TE not named Ertz, Kelce, or Kittle. You aren't getting that advantage with any guy you are trading him for, period. You'd have to believe with absolute certainty that his best days are behind him to even consider trading him for top 20-30 options like the ones discussed in this thread, and to do that you'd have to be willing to take a gamble that really makes no sense to take.

 

Hang steady Gronk owners.

 

This is the salient point. The floor of OJ Howard, David Njoku, Jared Cook, etc is basically 0 and those guys are TE1s... and Gronk's ceiling is much higher than those guys. His value is likely too depreciated to get a difference maker back in return. Trading him for a FLEX spot rotational guy makes no sense. Unless you can leverage his name value and package him with someone to get a big name (unlikely if your leaguemates are paying attention) you have to hold. His best days are clearly behind him - but he's still basically no less than the 4th best option at a severely depleted position. 

 

Also, the Pats offense is lacking difference makers and could really use him. 

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10 minutes ago, RevisAteMyQB said:

In short-- If you drafted him, you keep him.

 

Because the floor of a TE1 is 0 points---- and you can find that floor on waivers. No one but Kelce/Ertz/Kittle offer his upside.

 

Add Olsen in that list, until his foot gives out.

 

I see much better options than Gronk out there.  I traded him, but i also had Kittle and Olsen so it was trade I was willing to make. Gronk does have a low floor of 0, because he can be out every week on injury , and its a game time decision which really hurts your team ( Like last weeks Monday night game) Woe to you if you had him on your roster.

 

I am done with the ride, getting off the Gronk train.    Wish you all the best if you held on.

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16 minutes ago, RevisAteMyQB said:

In short-- If you drafted him, you keep him.

 

Because the floor of a TE1 is 0 points---- and you can find that floor on waivers. No one but Kelce/Ertz/Kittle offer his upside.

 

Picked up OJ Howard. Actually sniffing around to see what I can get for Gronk. 

 

Not as much as I'd like.

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 Gronk needs TDs.  Pats have too many mouths and conservative game plans to inflate his rec yards and catches so he really needs TDs...which he isn't getting the targets in Red zone for. That's the big issue here.  

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5 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 Gronk needs TDs.  Pats have too many mouths and conservative game plans to inflate his rec yards and catches so he really needs TDs...which he isn't getting the targets in Red zone for. That's the big issue here.  

 

I guess it's a good thing that there are only two tight ends in the history of football who have scored more TDs than Gronk, isn't it?

 

Besides, basically every TE relies on TDs with the exception again of just a few, and Gronk historically has been part of that select few until this year. And even in this down year for him he has still hit 7+ targets for 50+ yards in 4 of 7 games played. He really hasn't killed you in PPR leagues any more than literally any other TE you would have started over him (again unless you have top 3 option).

 

The red zone targets should come. Gronk is one of the best red zone weapons in NFL history--even a mummified version of Antonio Gates can trot out there and grab two TDs. Don't tell me Gronk can't score anymore at age 29. I get he's been below expectations this year but a lot more reason for optimism than many of you are suggesting.

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5 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

Don't tell me Gronk can't score anymore at age 29. I get he's been below expectations this year but a lot more reason for optimism than many of you are suggesting.

 

The age 29 thing is deceptive. He's got a lot of wear and tear on his body due to his physical style of play and injuries incurred over the years.

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10 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

 

I guess it's a good thing that there are only two tight ends in the history of football who have scored more TDs than Gronk, isn't it?

 

Besides, basically every TE relies on TDs with the exception again of just a few, and Gronk historically has been part of that select few until this year. And even in this down year for him he has still hit 7+ targets for 50+ yards in 4 of 7 games played. He really hasn't killed you in PPR leagues any more than literally any other TE you would have started over him (again unless you have top 3 option).

 

The red zone targets should come. Gronk is one of the best red zone weapons in NFL history--even a mummified version of Antonio Gates can trot out there and grab two TDs. Don't tell me Gronk can't score anymore at age 29. I get he's been below expectations this year but a lot more reason for optimism than many of you are suggesting.

 

I am not saying drop Gronk at all, I am just saying he is meh this year because he is not catching TDs and the Pats offense does not give him opportunity for many catches and yards because they no longer throw throw and throw some more, they are balanced attack now. 

 

Gronk is still useful but he won't return proper Gronk value or Gronk fantasy pts until he starts catching TDs again and I don't even think he has but a handful of Red Zone TARGETS since like Week 1...

 

 

Edited by Zak0221
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His back is really in bad shape, and he has already had several surgeries. He is likely permanently in pain at this point.  He is not capable of moving like he did before, even blocking destroys his back more each play.

 

He has taken to much damage, my bet is he retires after season. 

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I can't wait till he feasts in the coming weeks and helps the believers to a championship. Bye week came at the perfect time for him to rest up and get healthy. First game of this season, not last season or many centuries ago, he put up 7/123/1. It's totally reasonable to think he still has that in him. Recency bias is so prominent in these threads it is really quite fascinating. Exhibit A: Leonard Fournette thread. Exhibit B: Gronk thread.

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19 hours ago, AnchorDown said:

 

Injuries have certainly mounted for Gronk and he hasn't looked like himself this year, that is true. Now with him at a bye week, it's clear owners are at a crossroads with Gronk. For me I like to look at the situation objectively and do my best given what I know to assign probabilities to potential outcomes. Is it possible we've seen the last of Gronk's dominance and he is now just another TE? Certainly it's possible. Is that more likely than him taking time to rest from injuries and coming back to resume his role as an extremely important weapon for the Patriots? I don't know. I do know it's not an overwhelming probability one way or the other. Certainly not enough to feel definite about anything.

 

What I do feel definite about is that at his best or even close to it Gronk will win you fantasy leagues. There are very few players with that potential and their names certainly aren't Marques or Latavius. His ceiling--in a barren wasteland for TEs this year no less--gives you a huge advantage, however likely you think it may be that he reaches that ceiling again. His floor is that of any other TE not named Ertz, Kelce, or Kittle. You aren't getting that advantage with any guy you are trading him for, period. You'd have to believe with absolute certainty that his best days are behind him to even consider trading him for top 20-30 options like the ones discussed in this thread, and to do that you'd have to be willing to take a gamble that really makes no sense to take.

 

Hang steady Gronk owners.

 

I'm with you on this, and I don't own Gronk in any league. 

 

Early in the season, he had a serious problem in that teams were simply scheming him out of the game. Edelman was suspended, Gordon was on the Browns, so the Pats were rolling out Dorsett, Hogan, and Patterson at WR. The running game wasn't good either. Michel hadn't come on, and they lost Burkhead to injury. To put it simply, they didn't have strong enough pass-catching options or enough of a running threat to FORCE defenses to ease off the doubling of Gronk. 

 

After that, when the offense started humming, Gronk was battling injuries. So he couldn't take advantage of it--or was out.

 

If he is healthy ROS after the bye, I think the trend will be a lot more positive. Gordon is a top-end weapon, Edelman is a great outlet/possession receiver, and the dual punch of Michel and White mean that you have to account for the RBs. That takes the target off Gronk's back for the defense, allowing him room to work.

 

IF he is healthy [yes, big if], I think he'll be a much better weapon ROS. 

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