ST. STEVEN

Daniel Mengden 2018 Outlook

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I like this kid, A LOT. Wish I had him on my team. He is a very bright pitcher really understanding how to PITCH and not just throw. Watch him pitch, it's awesome how he changes speeds so much on his fastball. I saw him today sitting around 90-91, then he'd drop a 92 or 93 on there, then to strike out Refsnyder (yea, I know he stinks, but he is kinda hard to strike out), Mengden hit 95. His off speed stuff is solid and very controllable, though he does pitch to contact. The yard he pitches in doesn't hurt him either. 

 

This guy is a throwback, he isn't hitting 98, pitches within the strike zone, but has great ability to work the strike zone away from wheel house areas. Imagine if Cotton and Puk not gotten injured for Oakland, they'd be looking really pretty sweet in that rotation (yea I know Puk wasn't expected to break camp). 

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21 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

I like this kid, A LOT. Wish I had him on my team. He is a very bright pitcher really understanding how to PITCH and not just throw. Watch him pitch, it's awesome how he changes speeds so much on his fastball. I saw him today sitting around 90-91, then he'd drop a 92 or 93 on there, then to strike out Refsnyder (yea, I know he stinks, but he is kinda hard to strike out), Mengden hit 95. His off speed stuff is solid and very controllable, though he does pitch to contact. The yard he pitches in doesn't hurt him either. 

 

This guy is a throwback, he isn't hitting 98, pitches within the strike zone, but has great ability to work the strike zone away from wheel house areas. Imagine if Cotton and Puk not gotten injured for Oakland, they'd be looking really pretty sweet in that rotation (yea I know Puk wasn't expected to break camp). 

This is probably a lazy comp, but he puts up Hendricks-type starts. 

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21 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

This is probably a lazy comp, but he puts up Hendricks-type starts. 

I actually did think about that comparison after watching seeing a bit of Hendricks' last start.

 

Going off into the main discussion currently going on, I actually think Mengden can continue to have a good amount of success the rest of the season despite not being a strikeout pitcher or extreme groundball guy.  I mentioned him as a throwback type pitcher after his 2-hit SO last Saturday, and somebody else just did too, and I definitely agree there.  That is also one reason why I think he can still be successful.  Plenty of pitchers pitched like him a while back, and while the game is obviously a bit different now, you can still have success without racking up the K's.

 

Also, even in a season where hitting being horrible is allowing for more and more pitchers to have better ratios than expected, it's not like Mengden's numbers this season are really out of line with the small amount of starts he got last season.  About the only thing that's close to significantly different is his walk rate.  Yes, I know I'm comparing a still fairly small sample size to a small sample size, but it does at least give hope to this season being legit and not some sort of fluke.

 

Sure, his ERA may go up a bit since he won't flirt with a CG shutout every game, but he could very well be waiver wire gold for the middle or backend of fantasy rotations.  If you are strong in K's already, then even better.

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On 6/1/2018 at 7:32 PM, KilloWertz said:

I actually did think about that comparison after watching seeing a bit of Hendricks' last start.

 

Going off into the main discussion currently going on, I actually think Mengden can continue to have a good amount of success the rest of the season despite not being a strikeout pitcher or extreme groundball guy.  I mentioned him as a throwback type pitcher after his 2-hit SO last Saturday, and somebody else just did too, and I definitely agree there.  That is also one reason why I think he can still be successful.  Plenty of pitchers pitched like him a while back, and while the game is obviously a bit different now, you can still have success without racking up the K's.

 

Also, even in a season where hitting being horrible is allowing for more and more pitchers to have better ratios than expected, it's not like Mengden's numbers this season are really out of line with the small amount of starts he got last season.  About the only thing that's close to significantly different is his walk rate.  Yes, I know I'm comparing a still fairly small sample size to a small sample size, but it does at least give hope to this season being legit and not some sort of fluke.

 

Sure, his ERA may go up a bit since he won't flirt with a CG shutout every game, but he could very well be waiver wire gold for the middle or backend of fantasy rotations.  If you are strong in K's already, then even better.

Four homers allowed, and three walks, in only four innings pitched.  Facing Houston next.  Seems like a benching might be in order.  Particularly for a pitcher who relies on command to succeed.

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5 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

Four homers allowed, and three walks, in only four innings pitched.  Facing Houston next.  Seems like a benching might be in order.  Particularly for a pitcher who relies on command to succeed.

Oops....

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Sucks, but it was just kind of a market correction - Mengden's ERA is now more reasonably in line with his FIP and xFIP, and his HR/FB rate is back in line with his career numbers.  I'm not saying he can't have become a better pitcher, but taking the odd clunker for the good games in between is fine with me for a guy that was free.  Still out-pitching half the arms I used draft capital on.

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4 minutes ago, gatewoodkid4 said:

Tough match-up tonight,  anyone starting him?

 

I don't see a reason in most leagues to start fringe starters against elite or fringe-elite offenses. Hopefully this makes sense, but I'd rather have BETTER starts from MORE pitchers using FEWER match-ups than having MORE match-ups with FEWER pitchers. If that is possible. 

 

Mengden's got a good Change, Curve, and Slider, but his Fastball has always been kinda the crutch. He needs to keep hitters off the 4-seam to have success. Against certain teams this will work pretty well and I have Mengden as a 12-Team Mixed league player, but I'm just a little worried this is a game, against a team like the Stros, that they find the fastball. 

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Yeah he's 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA v Hou in 30 IP...I would not play with fire...his other start this week against LAA isn't favorable likely either, as he's 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in 8 IP against them...small sample but not ideal.

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It's fun to ride the hot hand until it burns you. Limit the damage tonight and sit Mengden.

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Just playing devils advocate here but he had one bad start against them on the road and one good start against them in Oakland. He held them to one run at home over 6 2/3 innings. I’m torn on this one. 

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Two consecutive games with high walk totals, for a pitcher who needs pin point control to succeed, is worrying.  Next weeks start for Mengden is against the White Sox.  Do they feature an overly aggressive lineup?  If so that would seem like the ideal match up for a rebound outing.

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1 hour ago, Magnus88 said:

Two consecutive games with high walk totals, for a pitcher who needs pin point control to succeed, is worrying.  Next weeks start for Mengden is against the White Sox.  Do they feature an overly aggressive lineup?  If so that would seem like the ideal match up for a rebound outing.

 

Regardless of style, the lack of quality hitting particular on the left hand side should benefit Mengden greatly.  

 

I don’t like these arguments in most cases, but if you aren’t pretty excited to stream against the White Sox, you probably shouldn’t be bothering owning that player. 

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As mentioned a few posts ago his next start is at home against LAA which I'll probably be benching him for unless my ratios are shot in my daily h2h league. I haven't heard many people on this forum saying he's droppable but I have seen the transaction trends on most fantasy sites where he's been one of the highest dropped players over the last week.

 

That being said, I still think there is value to be had holding onto him in even 10 team leagues but definitely 12+. If you're a manager like me where I tend to hold very few bench bats and have roughly 7-8 SP on my roster then this guy would be a perfect guy to own at the back end of your rotation. Do I expect him to do what he was doing leading up to his previous two starts? No because that would be unrealistic but do I expect him to be a very valuable piece at the back end of a fantasy rotation that can get you some good ratios and wins with a few k's sprinkled in.

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I don't really believe in making blanket statements for all leagues, but yeah, Mengden is likely droppable in most formats now.  I could buy into holding him as a solid end of the bench pitcher when he was out-pitching his peripherals with accuracy and a low BB rate, but now his control has vanished, he still can't K people, his GB rate is meh, and his K-rate is even worse.  His ERA has ballooned, but even at his current 4.06 ERA the peripherals are still saying he's over-achieving.  

 

If you're going to hold a wildcard / spot starter on your roster, might as well be someone with some K-upside like Mahle or Strailey.

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had him benched yesterday after 2 horrible outings, then dropped for estrada after yesterdays clunker

 

it was a nice waiver wire ride for a nice stretch though...lol

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