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Alex Cobb 2018 Outlook

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Alex Cobb is still a free agent without a team. what to expect can depend on what team signs him.

 

this from dynastyguru..

Quote

Alex Cobb is currently without a team. It doesn’t surprise me that clubs are being extra cautious about investing in him. While Cobb posted an ERA of 3.66 last season, it’s not backed up by the evidence. He hasn’t struck out more than 7 per nine in over 200 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery and his swinging strike percentage was a weak 6.7% in 2017. In 2013 and 2014, Cobb’s dominant pre-injury seasons, he posted swinging strike percentages of 9.4 and 10.6%. Can he be the pitcher he was in 2014 once again? I’m skeptical, but he still possesses value as an above-average starter.

 

last year he had 6.42 K9 overall. he had these monthly splits..

April- 6.52 K9.

May- 6.35 K9.

June- 5.79 K9.

July- 4.54 K9.

August- 9.37 K9.

September- 8.59 K9.

 

if he can get his K numbers back up to what he had in 2013 (8.41 K9) and 2014 (8.06) then he is going to have more upside.

prior to 2015 he had GB% in the 50's and FB% in the 20's. even last year he had 47.8 GB% and 30.2 FB%. in today's game an emphasis on FB/launch angle this can be a good thing.

 

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24 minutes ago, DMurphy77 said:

Every fantasy league has those guys that covet Alex Cobb.  Why?  I do not know

Because of 2013 and 2014. I'm not big on drafting Cobb but when a guy strikes out a little under a guy per inning and has an era in the late 2's he has a lot of value. I'm not going to pay for it this year, but I see why people will if he goes to the right team. 

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He's a guy I'd try to get for $1-2  (260 cap auction - Roto)...decent option for SP5-6 in 12-14 teamers IMO.

 

He'd be tough to own in H2H IMO. I owned him for a stretch last year, he helped me some but also is good for the clunkers when you least expect it. I can't quantify it exactly, but just seems to be one of those guys that goes into a tough matchup and comes out with a good line, and then easier matchups gives up a clunker. And then goes right back out and throws a gem. 

 

Decent back-end option but just beware of what you're getting into.

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9 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Think he should play with the Braves at Sun Trust Field. Just seems right 

Because Sun Trust Field is located in Cobb County, Georgia? 

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Has to feel like he did very well for himself considering what Lynn got and how the FA market has shaped up this offseason. 

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2 hours ago, absknicks said:

Has to feel like he did very well for himself considering what Lynn got and how the FA market has shaped up this offseason. 

Except pitching in Baltimore will completely destroy his value come the next time he is a free agent.

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10 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Except pitching in Baltimore will completely destroy his value come the next time he is a free agent.

 

He's 30 years old and set a career high in IP last year at 179, and he's got $60 million guaranteed that'll take him through until 34.5 years old.  I think that's pretty much best case scenario for Cobb - he's not likely getting another big payday at nearly-35 regardless of where he pitches the next 4 seasons.  

 

Seems like a very Baltimore thing to do.  Do (almost) nothing all off-season except scramble to keep together your last place roster from last season.  Wait through weeks of decent free agent pitchers not getting contracts and then settling for short term deals that are lower risk for the teams signing them.  Then a couple weeks before the regular season starts, sign a back of the rotation SP to a $16 million contract, and sign a decent #3 SP to a $60 million contract.  Patch them into a rotation with other #3/#4 SP's and bask in the mediocrity.  

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It's all Jeff Maier's fault. 

Image result for 1996 home run robbed orioles

 

On paper Cobb sure looks good, which I like because maybe someone will take him instead of stealing one of the better late sleeper SPs.

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13 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Except pitching in Baltimore will completely destroy his value come the next time he is a free agent.

 

Cobb pitched in TB his whole career which means he has seen a LOT of AL East parks and line-ups.  If he is totally healthy he should put up decent numbers and he has a better line-up backing him too.

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37 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Cobb pitched in TB his whole career which means he has seen a LOT of AL East parks and line-ups.  If he is totally healthy he should put up decent numbers and he has a better line-up backing him too.

Worse park though. I just have little faith in Baltimore getting and maintaining a good pitcher, based on history. 

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He was dropped after our draft, so I grabbed him off the waiver wire. I always wait on SP, so he's worth a flier I guess. I like the point made above about him being in the division before. If he has more clunkers than good starts, back to the wire he goes. 

Edited by Miggy&Prince

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Cobb pitched in TB his whole career which means he has seen a LOT of AL East parks and line-ups.  If he is totally healthy he should put up decent numbers and he has a better line-up backing him too.

He landed in basically the worst possible location outside Colorado. Not only is he still in the AL E, but he's in a much worse home park. And hes moving from one of the best defensive teams (especially OF defense) to one of the very worst. And overall the Oriole's  suck even more than Tampa so it's not like he should be expected to win more games to make up for the extra runs allowed.

 

 

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9 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

He's 30 years old and set a career high in IP last year at 179, and he's got $60 million guaranteed that'll take him through until 34.5 years old.  I think that's pretty much best case scenario for Cobb - he's not likely getting another big payday at nearly-35 regardless of where he pitches the next 4 seasons.  

 

Seems like a very Baltimore thing to do.  Do (almost) nothing all off-season except scramble to keep together your last place roster from last season.  Wait through weeks of decent free agent pitchers not getting contracts and then settling for short term deals that are lower risk for the teams signing them.  Then a couple weeks before the regular season starts, sign a back of the rotation SP to a $16 million contract, and sign a decent #3 SP to a $60 million contract.  Patch them into a rotation with other #3/#4 SP's and bask in the mediocrity.  

Wow I thought he was younger than that. Mea culpa

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I view Cobb as a solid pick for where his value was, in particular pre-Oriole signing. High upside and where he's drafted, it's a good deal.  His split change seems less effective since TJ and his Curveball isn't his swing and miss pitch. We will have to see how the change improves before we get an idea if we have a good SP, average or below average.  I'm personally pretty excited about his potential here. I was going through some articles and found a good one on fangraphs.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/community/alex-cobb-will-be-one-of-the-gems-of-this-free-agent-class/

 

I also see Cobb (I play H2H) as a guy who will be great for double start weeks or most matchups.  I wish a different park and different division, but it's not like the AL East scares the heck out of you. Boston still has Hanley batting 3rd, so it's not as if Boston is going to scare you to depth.  Yankees are a concern, but I don't have them with Toronto or Tampa.  

 

I'm looking forward to testing my luck with Cobb and while I don't expect pre-TJ Cobb, I think we can see very effective pitcher based on how his split change is able to get hitters for those swinging strikes. If you look at the link, there is an interesting graph on his pitch usage rate and how low the split change was used as the season went on.  


I drafted him at pick 154.  There were two TB fans in the draft and wanted to pick him ahead of then and the other SP's I liked in that range where available over the next rounds or later depending how steep you go.  The league is a 14-team league that starts 6 SP's and SP's are essential in the league more so than your average league. 

 

 

Edited by myzto
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