NYR Fan 116894

Chris Godwin 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

Probably not enough to go around with Evans and D. Jackson and the TE's, but can Godwin leapfrog Humphries for slot time?

 

It's not really his skill set.

 

On some sets though I could see them using evans or djax in the slot though. 

 

Love Godwin longterm.

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In my deepest league I'll try to get him at the back of my roster, and i'll keep an eye on him in the shallow leagues where he wont be drafted.   I like what he showed late last year.    I'd be surprised if he didn't leapfrog Humphries, to start.   There's targets also available from Brate leaving, plus D-Jax is a year older.   I'm not anticipating an explosion, but I think a shot at being playable at times in a 14 team league is reasonable.   And if not, i probably spend $3 or $4 at most in my auction

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21 minutes ago, BrianM said:

In my deepest league I'll try to get him at the back of my roster, and i'll keep an eye on him in the shallow leagues where he wont be drafted.   I like what he showed late last year.    I'd be surprised if he didn't leapfrog Humphries, to start.   There's targets also available from Brate leaving, plus D-Jax is a year older.   I'm not anticipating an explosion, but I think a shot at being playable at times in a 14 team league is reasonable.   And if not, i probably spend $3 or $4 at most in my auction

 

Brate is a restricted free agent.   Have TB folks said he's not going to be tendered a contract?   Regardless, even if he left I'd project Howard to take those targets. 

 

Humphries (who's also a RFA) is a solid slot wr.  They have different skill sets. 

 

Easiest path to Godwin production in 2018 is an injury to Evans or Djax.

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Had no idea Brate was a RFA.   Assumed he was gone.    For RFA tender, he should return, easily....so that dampens my outlook a bit.       

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Love the guy. Only concern is a poorly-coached and poorly-quarterbacked team.

 

We'll have to see where everyone ends up, but I suspect Godwin at his ADP will be more sensible than Smith-Schuster at his.

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2 hours ago, irvnasty said:

Love the guy. Only concern is a poorly-coached and poorly-quarterbacked team.

 

We'll have to see where everyone ends up, but I suspect Godwin at his ADP will be more sensible than Smith-Schuster at his.

 

That qb is going to explode soon.   May not be 2018 but 2019 at the latest.

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3 hours ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

Quips like this mean absolutely nothing. You can probably find coaches saying this about every receiver they've ever had on the team. 

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NYR Fan 1116894 wrote:

"Probably not enough to go around with Evans and D. Jackson and the TE's, but can Godwin leapfrog Humphries for slot time?"

 

That tweet that you cited, it's code! Godwin is an extension of the coach's philosophy. He's earned it and he's going to get it! What might that be? His share of the gravy of course. I do think he ends up as a featured WR (x-slot) in this league, but he can man the slot. Good size, physical possession type. Works the defender, making effective use of his hands. Adept at working the dirty areas, formidable catch radius, can track & elevate. Embraces his role in the run game, watch out for him! If his current ADP at ffc is any indication, we're looking at some serious value. 

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I like Godwin as a late round flier this year.  Desean Jackson never seems to put together 16 games, and IMO has been getting less effective the past few years.  I think Godwin takes over as the #2 this year at some point, and with the passing volume we usually get out of Tampa, I like Godwin to provide some nice WR3 value at least, maybe WR2 if Desean misses extended time.  

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Dynasty, +++

 

Redraft, too many cooks in the kitchen right now.  Brate and Evans are the red zone targets.  Add DJax and Howard and there's too much quality competition for yards to depend on him for anything.  That said he's the second most talented pass catcher that they have right now so maybe he can emerge this year.  That said... Winston barely supported one fantasy WR last year.  Can he support two viable redraft WRs this year?  Ehhhh....

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22 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Dynasty, +++

 

Redraft, too many cooks in the kitchen right now.  Brate and Evans are the red zone targets.  Add DJax and Howard and there's too much quality competition for yards to depend on him for anything.  That said he's the second most talented pass catcher that they have right now so maybe he can emerge this year.  That said... Winston barely supported one fantasy WR last year.  Can he support two viable redraft WRs this year?  Ehhhh....

 

Agreed, love goodwin in dynasty, but i dont think its out of the question for winston to support multiple wrs. He was playing injured most of the season and was never truly able to find his rhythm out the gate (week 3 or 4 injury? Cant remember) but its also why i think he will bounce back and guys like Evans or Desean will come at a ridiculous value this year. Were not too far off from Mike Evans being the next 2017 Hopkins in terms of draft value imo. 

Edited by vikingapocalypse

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25 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Agreed, love goodwin in dynasty, but i dont think its out of the question for winston to support multiple wrs. He was playing injured most of the season and was never truly able to find his rhythm out the gate (week 3 or 4 injury? Cant remember) but its also why i think he will bounce back and guys like Evans or Desean will come at a ridiculous value this year. Were not too far off from Mike Evans being the next 2017 Hopkins in terms of draft value imo. 

 

How much was it Evan's injury, and how much was it just being his normal error prone self?  He had 20.8 standard fantasy points per game -- down from 21.7 in year 1, 21.2 in year 2, but not really out of the ordinary.  Koetter runs a really slow conservative offense too.  Seems there was friction there between him and Winston.

 

I'm probably just suffering from recency bias after getting burnt a little last year.  By all accounts they "should" be a breakout offense.  But the same applied for last year.

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19 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

How much was it Evan's injury, and how much was it just being his normal error prone self?  He had 20.8 standard fantasy points per game -- down from 21.7 in year 1, 21.2 in year 2, but not really out of the ordinary.  Koetter runs a really slow conservative offense too.  Seems there was friction there between him and Winston.

 

I'm probably just suffering from recency bias after getting burnt a little last year.  By all accounts they "should" be a breakout offense.  But the same applied for last year.

 

*wintson im sure is what you meant, 

 

I wont sit here and say he isnt error prone, but just watching him last year, he was a different QB playing injured. Wasnt practicing and it happened early so he was able to get in a rhythm with his new corps. I think its a bit of recency bias, but at the same time this year will be big for him. Hes proven he can put up the big stats, but he needs to grow and cut down the turnovers and stop trying to play hero.

Edited by vikingapocalypse

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17 minutes ago, DLB4ever said:

Since were post draft where do we sit on this kid?

Love him still in dynasty.  Could crack the top 30 this year I would say.

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On 5/5/2018 at 10:10 PM, DLB4ever said:

"Since we're post draft where do we sit on this kid?"

 

Godwin is a guy you'll find in the back, may not even have to draft him. There's also a Mike Williams, Josh Doctson & Cameron Meredith to consider. We all know between Godwin and a featured role is DeSean Jackson, a pricy acquisition & teams will often do what's necessary for moves like that to work out. The HC & Winston have both commented on Jackson's dip in production & said the blame isn't on him. But in the comment section of an article a Bucs fan contended that just as often Jackson wouldn't make an adjustment on a ball that he otherwise could've caught. Another stated that at one point Jackson complained that Winston targeted Evans too often. Winston was quoted as saying the two needed to better coordinate their offseason regimen & this year there's been some of that. But Jackson still contends that what's best for him is to work with his personal trainer out in CA.

 

Early in his career Jackson was used on run sweeps & in the return game but I don't think there was any of that last year & that sort of usage might be over with. I don't know about those comments but they do sound Jacksonesque, especially the part about his catch radius, we know he doesn't block. Doesn't sound like he'll be returning after this season, which doesn't seem to be of much help to us now. Has always been slight & used primarily as a vertical threat.

 

A conservative approach to Godwin may be to assume Jackson returns as the full-time x-slot & there's an increase in his productivity. But I believe there's a good chance Godwin's snap rate and target share both pick up where they left off & he continues to build on his rapport w/Winston, regardless of Jackson. Out of the slot he'll match up favorably and easily exceed a 100 targets. I consider him a solid breakout candidate.  

Edited by markrc99

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It's not his time yet, but this video demonstrates how underrated Godwin was coming into the draft, and his potential to be a high impact player in the NFL. He absolutely shredded USC and it's arguable that he was the Lions' best player on the field over Saquon. 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

It's not his time yet, but this video demonstrates how underrated Godwin was coming into the draft, and his potential to be a high impact player in the NFL. He absolutely shredded USC and it's arguable that he was the Lions' best player on the field over Saquon. 

 

 

 

 

 

Carolina really screwed up by taking Samuels over him in the 2nd round.   Was incredibly dumb.

 

In my opinion he was the second best WR in that draft class coming out behind Corey Davis.

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On 5/7/2018 at 4:34 AM, markrc99 said:

 

Godwin is a guy you'll find in the back, may not even have to draft him. There's also a Mike Williams, Josh Doctson & Cameron Meredith to consider. We all know between Godwin and a featured role is DeSean Jackson, a pricy acquisition & teams will often do what's necessary for moves like that to work out. The HC & Winston have both commented on Jackson's dip in production & said the blame isn't on him. But in the comment section of an article a Bucs fan contended that just as often Jackson wouldn't make an adjustment on a ball that he otherwise could've caught. Another stated that at one point Jackson complained that Winston targeted Evans too often. Winston was quoted as saying the two needed to better coordinate their offseason regimen & this year there's been some of that. But Jackson still contends that what's best for him is to work with his personal trainer out in CA.

 

Early in his career Jackson was used on run sweeps & in the return game but I don't think there was any of that last year & that sort of usage might be over with. I don't know about those comments but they do sound Jacksonesque, especially the part about his catch radius, we know he doesn't block. Doesn't sound like he'll be returning after this season, which doesn't seem to be of much help to us now. Has always been slight & used primarily as a vertical threat.

 

A conservative approach to Godwin may be to assume Jackson returns as the full-time x-slot & there's an increase in his productivity. But I believe there's a good chance Godwin's snap rate and target share both pick up where they left off & he continues to build on his rapport w/Winston, regardless of Jackson. Out of the slot he'll match up favorably and easily exceed a 100 targets. I consider him a solid breakout candidate.  

 

I really don't consider Godwin a slot receiver. 

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12 hours ago, 96mnc said:

"I really don't consider Godwin a slot receiver." 

 

The only thing between Chris Godwin and production was opportunity. We all know the result once he was given a chance. As we all agree, eventually he ascends to a featured role (x-slot), no later than next season. In the meantime it seems likely he assumes the role of slot receiver. I know that he doesn't quite fit the mold that we usually see there, but he can body up & run complementary routes. Anyway, this article is a year old, but it's new to me...   

 

Quote

"Buccaneers offensive coordinator and receivers coach Todd Monkey ... sent a message for Jackson: He knows that Jackson didn't come down to Tampa Bay for the weather or Jameis Winston. He knows Jackson chose the Buccaneers purely for financial reasons, so he needs Jackson to live up to that money. "How can we get DeSean Jackson up to playing at a really high level? ... Monkey said... "I've told him that, 'We have paid you a hell of a lot of money to be a damn good player. We're not paying you a lot of money, this is a contract where we're paying you for what you've done for us…we're not paying like (Derek) Jeter the last three years…we don't have any old street cred that we're paying you. No. We need you to be a great player now. Okay? That's why we gave you the money. "'You came here because of the money. Don't give me all that bull about you came here because of the weather and Jameis. No.You came here because we paid you the most. You need to play like that.' He gets that. He's smart enough to understand that." https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/buccaneers-oc-desean-jackson-came-here-because-of-the-money-now-play-like-it/

 

.... This is the player I'm familiar with. I mean, you wouldn't expect to read something like this before the guy even takes the field. Jackson's production was down but his targets/receptions weren't all that far off his average. He's an older player, but I think he gets his 55-60 receptions, but with an increase in yardage/TDs. His speed/change of direction still affects coverages which helps everybody, including Godwin. I think there's an excellent chance Godwin's role expands & down the stretch especially.      

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4 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

The only thing between Chris Godwin and production was opportunity. We all know the result once he was given a chance. As we all agree, eventually he ascends to a featured role (x-slot), no later than next season. In the meantime it seems likely he assumes the role of slot receiver. I know that he doesn't quite fit the mold that we usually see there, but he can body up & run complementary routes. Anyway, this article is a year old, but it's new to me...   

 

 

.... This is the player I'm familiar with. I mean, you wouldn't expect to read something like this before the guy even takes the field. Jackson's production was down but his targets/receptions weren't all that far off his average. He's an older player, but I think he gets his 55-60 receptions, but with an increase in yardage/TDs. His speed/change of direction still affects coverages which helps everybody, including Godwin. I think there's an excellent chance Godwin's role expands & down the stretch especially.      

 

Jackson - I didn't see any drop in his ability last year.   I saw a qb and wr that simply weren't connecting on deep balls when the wr was open.   

 

I also think Jackson is an underrated route runner that actually would do well in the slot if deployed there some.

 

Likewise,  Adam Humphries is a solid slot guy as well. 

 

Regardless, I'm a huge Godwin fan.

 

Also, this TB team will be an interesting one to watch in terms of personnel deployment with high investment in two TEs as well. 

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

"Jackson - I didn't see any drop in his ability last year. I saw a qb and wr that simply weren't connecting on deep balls when the wr was open. I also think Jackson is an underrated route runner that actually would do well in the slot if deployed there some. Likewise,  Adam Humphries is a solid slot guy as well. Regardless, I'm a huge Godwin fan. Also, this TB team will be an interesting one to watch in terms of personnel deployment with high investment in two TEs as well." 

 

Yeah, I think that DEF gets like 80 sacks & Winston has some serious weapons to throw to. I don't know about Ronald Jones, cut high & runs high, but how a guy is put together isn't everything. If he struggles, Barber will grind for them. Jackson's speed & change of direction are excellent, no doubt. It's more his age, his usage, effort & antics. There's the off-field stuff, during the offseason his vehicle was involved in a crash, but no one was in it. He says it wasn't him but did he report his vehicle stolen or missing? If Jackson establishes that there's another contract in his future, they fall out of contention, I can see them getting their younger players more experience & him really not too concerned about it.

Edited by markrc99
grammer

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