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Tarik Cohen 2018 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

And what would those metrics be?

 

Particularly as previously mentioned probably a couple times his yards beyond contact. I don’t know his metric from last year but he still seemed to take on tacklers well for being banged up for a portion of the year. His rookie season he was fantastic. 

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33 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Particularly as previously mentioned probably a couple times his yards beyond contact. I don’t know his metric from last year but he still seemed to take on tacklers well for being banged up for a portion of the year. His rookie season he was fantastic. 

Yards after contact, another very deceiving statistic.  Not really sure why the number of yards after contact matter so much.  Wouldn't a percentage of tackles broken make more sense?

 

Example:  Kenyan Drake lead all RB's in yard after contact per attempt in 2017.

Not coincidentally, Miami was dead last (by a large margin) in yards before contact.  See the connection?

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7 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yards after contact, another very deceiving statistic.  Not really sure why the number of yards after contact matter so much.  Wouldn't a percentage of tackles broken make more sense?

 

Example:  Kenyan Drake lead all RB's in yard after contact per attempt in 2017.

Not coincidentally, Miami was dead last (by a large margin) in yards before contact.  See the connection?

 

Every statistic is deceiving if that's how you base it. And only one of us has offered *any* evidence as well. 

 

He runs through tacklers, I'm sure his BTK number is high as well... I mean instead of just being critical do you have anything to offer in terms of evidence? So far your take is "Not good." So for you to be highly critical about the statistics I'm using I just figured you'd have offered at least one yourself by now. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Every statistic is deceiving if that's how you base it. And only one of us has offered *any* evidence as well. 

 

He runs through tacklers, I'm sure his BTK number is high as well... I mean instead of just being critical do you have anything to offer in terms of evidence? So far your take is "Not good." So for you to be highly critical about the statistics I'm using I just figured you'd have offered at least one yourself by now. 

Get em Tao 

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41 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Every statistic is deceiving if that's how you base it. And only one of us has offered *any* evidence as well. 

 

He runs through tacklers, I'm sure his BTK number is high as well... I mean instead of just being critical do you have anything to offer in terms of evidence? So far your take is "Not good." So for you to be highly critical about the statistics I'm using I just figured you'd have offered at least one yourself by now. 

What statistic have you offered?  Absolutely none.  

 

Your take is "he's good because that's my opinion" and "he had a good rookie season".

 

Statistics:  Jordan Howard was 45th out of 59 RB's in broken tackles per touch (minimum 100 touches) in 2017.

 

Therefore if Jordan Howard is anywhere near an elite runner you're going to have to go off of something better than his 2016 yards after contact.

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3 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

What statistic have you offered?  Absolutely none.  

 

Your take is "he's good because that's my opinion" and "he had a good rookie season".

 

Statistics:  Jordan Howard was 45th out of 59 RB's in broken tackles per touch (minimum 100 touches) in 2017.

 

Therefore if Jordan Howard is anywhere near an elite runner you're going to have to go off of something better than his 2016 yards after contact.

 

No I offered a few you just haven’t liked them. That’s up to you.

 

I’d be interested by the source and list of the above. I’m not concerned with Howard’s thru contact skill. He runs through tacklers. You can watch it play by play. He carries tacklers and he falls forwards. He lacks top end speed, but last year on a terrible offense and injury he put together a solid year. The year before he was as good thru contact as Elliot. 

 

My take has been pretty clearly defined. You’re overly simplifying it and that’s not really fair. I said he was an excellent tackles runner, a thru contact runner, a fall forward runner, but lacked some versatility. That’s a pretty defined take. I’m not just coming in with “gets what’s blocked.”

 

I think the film however you wanna slice the metrics whether or not you wanna just devalue have aftercontact yardage... on the field I think he definitely gets more than what’s blocked. Sometimes he needs to get his feet moving into the second level, but that’s the same of most power backs. He’s an excellent downhill runner. 

 

Im pretty comfortable with my stance on these issues. We’ll see man. 

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Yards after contact stat is very deceptive. Typically it just means he’s already getting contacted between the tackles due to oline deficiencies or just plain sucking. It’s similar to s---y linebackers having a ton of tackles in a season and people think they’re good, when that linebacker was just fortuitous 

 

Edited by SonataArctica

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7 minutes ago, SonataArctica said:

Yards after contact stat is very deceptive. Typically it just means he’s already getting contacted between the tackles due to oline deficiencies or just plain sucking. It’s similar to s---y linebackers having a ton of tackles in a season and people think they’re good, when that linebacker was just fortuitous 

 

look a lot of the top rbs in the league like kamara. They’re already deep into the secondary before being touched due to their own shiftiness or fortune of a great offense 

 

Metric or not, I’ll take a highlight tape or a game film too as evidence if it were at all really possible or easier. I mean I could post a highlight but highlights are deceptive in and of themselves.

 

the metric is what I’m trying to use the help the argument. I don’t think he’s a powerful back because of his YAC. I think he’s a powerful back because I watch bears games and he trucks motherf***ers

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Metric or not, I’ll take a highlight tape or a game film too as evidence if it were at all really possible or easier. I mean I could post a highlight but highlights are deceptive in and of themselves.

 

the metric is what I’m trying to use the help the argument. I don’t think he’s a powerful back because of his YAC. I think he’s a powerful back because I watch bears games and he trucks motherf***ers

 

I’m curious what the metric for missed tackles on Jordan Howard is. He doesn’t seem too shifty 

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Metric or not, I’ll take a highlight tape or a game film too as evidence if it were at all really possible or easier. I mean I could post a highlight but highlights are deceptive in and of themselves.

 

the metric is what I’m trying to use the help the argument. I don’t think he’s a powerful back because of his YAC. I think he’s a powerful back because I watch bears games and he trucks motherf***ers

I get it.  Stats mean nothing because "He looks pretty good on tape".

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/2017/rotopass-broken-tackles

 

Howard was 21st in total broken tackles despite being 8th in total touches.  Not exactly above average.

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I get it.  Stats mean nothing because "He looks pretty good on tape".

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/2017/rotopass-broken-tackles

 

Howard was 21st in total broken tackles despite being 8th in total touches.  Not exactly above average.

 

I didn't say stats mean nothing. His stats to date in his career have been pretty good. 

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STATs on Jordan Howard that concern me:

 

14 big runs last season which was 4th in the nfl. This explains the inflated ypc that rmj was referring to.

 

his big run rate was 5.1%. 14th in the nfl.

 

His Juke  rate is 20.3%. 39th in the nfl

 

61 evaded tackles last season which was 14th in the nfl. Not bad, but nothing to write home about.

 

Yards created per carry was 1.31 which was 26th in the nfl ouch.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SonataArctica said:

STATs on Jordan Howard that concern me:

 

14 big runs last season which was 4th in the nfl. This explains the inflated ypc that rmj was referring to.

 

his big run rate was 5.1%. 14th in the nfl.

 

His Juke  rate is 20.3%. 39th in the nfl

 

61 evaded tackles last season which was 14th in the nfl. Not bad, but nothing to write home about.

 

Yards created per carry was 1.31 which was 26th in the nfl ouch.

 

 

 

I don't know what "Juke Rate" is, comparative to how it would matter for Howard's value. He's a one cut, downhill power runner. 

 

I understand the point of the above statistics. To me many would say that Howard lacks a big play threat, so the fact that he was top 15 in rate and top 5 in gross is an overall positive to me for someone who predicates their game on physical aggression and understanding running lanes and not breakaway speed. 

 

In terms of Yards Created... again these stats are somewhat... not "subjective" but kind've hard to quantify. I can point to a few plays last year that'll stick out on a highlight film where he was plugged at the line and escaped or pushed a pile through physicality. And again, I also don't think it's unfair to point out that he played a fair amount of last season injured-- primarily with a sprained AC Joint which probably didn't help him lower his shoulder on his truck. 

 

Like I said, we've got 16 games to see, but I've watched about 30 games of Howard at this point and I'm not concerned about his ability to get 15-20 carries a game at a 4.5 or better YPC and strong TDs. I'm not worried about his power or his skills as a RB. He's not JAG-- he's better. 

 

We'll see peeps. 

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12 minutes ago, taobball said:

And again, I also don't think it's unfair to point out that he played a fair amount of last season injured-- primarily with a sprained AC Joint which probably didn't help him lower his shoulder on his truck. 

 

Having suffered through this, the fact that he was still out there touting the rock every week deserves some kind of credit.  Depending on what grade the sprain was, just standing up straight can be insanely painful, let alone holding onto a ball for dear life before running into a brick wall.

 

I think this backfield looks the same as last year, with Cohen maybe getting a few more touches.

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Oh, and this offense can't be any worse than it was last year.  They added some good skill players, and Trubisky should operate the offense better.  Howard should be seeing more TD's, and more opportunity this year.

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42 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I don't know what "Juke Rate" is, comparative to how it would matter for Howard's value. He's a one cut, downhill power runner. 

 

I understand the point of the above statistics. To me many would say that Howard lacks a big play threat, so the fact that he was top 15 in rate and top 5 in gross is an overall positive to me for someone who predicates their game on physical aggression and understanding running lanes and not breakaway speed. 

 

In terms of Yards Created... again these stats are somewhat... not "subjective" but kind've hard to quantify. I can point to a few plays last year that'll stick out on a highlight film where he was plugged at the line and escaped or pushed a pile through physicality. And again, I also don't think it's unfair to point out that he played a fair amount of last season injured-- primarily with a sprained AC Joint which probably didn't help him lower his shoulder on his truck. 

 

Like I said, we've got 16 games to see, but I've watched about 30 games of Howard at this point and I'm not concerned about his ability to get 15-20 carries a game at a 4.5 or better YPC and strong TDs. I'm not worried about his power or his skills as a RB. He's not JAG-- he's better. 

 

We'll see peeps. 

Not concerned either. I suggest people not only look at stats 

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7 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Not concerned either. I suggest people not only look at stats 

How can one not be concerned looking at stats and knowing he was involved in trade rumors this offseason?  Not even the Bears are in love with him.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

How can one not be concerned looking at stats and knowing he was involved in trade rumors this offseason?  Not even the Bears are in love with him.

He can't  catch well and Nagy coming from KC and having hunt? 

 

Bears ultimately kept though

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39 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

How can one not be concerned looking at stats and knowing he was involved in trade rumors this offseason?  Not even the Bears are in love with him.

 

How many rumors were more than speculation? I’m gonna say none.

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

How many rumors were more than speculation? I’m gonna say none.

It was pretty much just the instagram thing...

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You guys are having a nice discussion of Jordan Howard here in the Tarik Cohen thread, but I get why.  Cohen's fate is entwined with Howard's.

 

One of the reasons Howard finished with nice yardage and TD totals is that John Fox would go into clock killing mode late in games while trailing by 2 or 3 TDs.  It was maddening.  Now that Fox is thankfully gone we can hope for more predictable usage.

 

But I see Cohen being used as a space player and gadget player, not a workhorse back.  That's regardless of what happens with Howard.

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

I don't know what "Juke Rate" is, comparative to how it would matter for Howard's value. He's a one cut, downhill power runner. 

It's a metric used to determine the percentage of forced missed tackles whether there was contact or not.

 

Much better than broken tackle percentage because it takes into account when you completely juke somebody out of their shorts and they don't even make contact with you.

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

It's a metric used to determine the percentage of forced missed tackles whether there was contact or not.

 

Much better than broken tackle percentage because it takes into account when you completely juke somebody out of their shorts and they don't even make contact with you.

 

Sure, but will limit a guy whos a power back comparatively. But I mean like I keep saying-- we'll see. Through two years he's been a pretty strong power back. I think he'll continue to be that. 

 

11 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

It was pretty much just the instagram thing...

 

Julio gone too then hmmm...

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13 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Sure, but will limit a guy whos a power back comparatively. Through two years he's been a pretty strong power back. I think he'll continue to be that. 

 

We already determined he didn't break very many tackles last year. 

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13 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

We already determined he didn't break very many tackles last year. 

Bears game plan last year was run run pass nearly every series. Not hard to predict how to stop that 

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