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Tarik Cohen 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, SonataArctica said:

 

His Juke  rate is 20.3%. 39th in the nfl

 

I like numbers, so I find this highly concerning.

 

First, how can you trust an RB with a juke rate under 22%?

 

Second, what is a juke rate? How is it measured? Who’s measuring it? Since when? 

 

What is the source of this statistic?

 

46 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

It's a metric used to determine the percentage of forced missed tackles whether there was contact or not [...] it takes into account when you completely juke somebody out of their shorts

 

For a numbers person it’s disconcerting that none of my graphs or spreadsheets have this metric. My entire 2018 algorithm has been undermined. Heads will roll.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

What is a juke rate? How is it measured? Who’s measuring it? Since when? 

 

What is the source of this statistic?

playerprofiler.com

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

We already determined he didn't break very many tackles last year. 

 

We determined that by one metric yes. Not all tackles are created equal. 

 

Again. Not trying to make a ton of excuses, but he maintained a 4.1 ypc through a sprained AC Joint and a D-level Coaching Staff, including a team with no WRs, a rookie QB, and a constantly stacked box. 

 

We’ll see. 

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Jordan Howard does not juke tacklers.  He steamrolls them on the way to the end zone.

 

Nagy has stated that Cohen is going to be their Tyreek Hill.  And the Bears signed no big name free agent running backs, nor did they draft one.  That tells me that the Bears are happy with Howard and his fantasy team managers probably will be, too.

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21 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Jordan Howard does not juke tacklers.  He steamrolls them on the way to the end zone.

But.... I.... we just.... Okay guys, ignore actual statistics and keep your opinions the same.  Carry on.

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5 hours ago, SonataArctica said:

STATs on Jordan Howard that concern me:

 

His Juke  rate is 20.3%. 39th in the nfl

 

With LeVeon Bell’s juke rate at 22% (and Tarik Cohen’s), Gurley’s at 24%, and Dion Lewis way out front at 39%, I’m wondering if 1) this is a stat better left unmentioned, and 2) if it’s a stat better left unmeasured.

 

 

3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

It's a metric used to determine the percentage of forced missed tackles whether there was contact or not.

 

Much better than broken tackle percentage because it takes into account when you completely juke somebody out of their shorts and they don't even make contact with you.

 

“Isolates a running back’s on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches.”  Would be more accurate if we took the square root and multiplied by pi. Just sayin’

 

2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

playerprofiler.com

 

Use it all the time...

just didn’t know you could scroll down.

They certainly do nitpick their numbers...

 

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

With LeVeon Bell’s juke rate at 22% (and Tarik Cohen’s), Gurley’s at 24%, and Dion Lewis way out front at 39%, I’m wondering if 1) this is a stat better left unmentioned, and 2) if it’s a stat better left unmeasured.

I'm not sure why you say that...

 

Hot take alert!!!!!  Le'veon isn't near as good of a runner as most would assume.  His longest run last season was 27 yards on 321 carries.  He's a 4.3 career ypc average runner despite having probably the best surroundings (qb, wr's, o-line) in the NFL.  Volume, a top 5 offensive line, and top RB receiving production have been his best friend in terms of fantasy value.

 

On the other hand, Dion Lewis had the 9th most broken tackles despite only being 21st in total number of touches.

Edited by RMJ_12

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

I'm not sure why you say that...

 

Hot take alert!!!!!  Le'veon isn't near as good of a runner as most would assume.  His longest run last season was 27 yards on 321 carries.  He's a 4.3 career ypc average runner despite having probably the best surroundings (qb, wr's, o-line) in the NFL.  Volume, a top 5 offensive line, and top RB receiving production have been his best friend in terms of fantasy value.

 

On the other hand, Dion Lewis had the 9th most broken tackles despite only being 21st in total number of touches.

So how good is bell and should we throw out juke rate?

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

So how good is bell and should we throw out juke rate?

Not sure what you're asking here.. 

 

Le'veon Bell is the best receiving RB in the game, and his patience running the ball does well behind his top tier offensive line.

 

Should we throw out juke rate?  Why would we?  It's very useful finding out who is actually elusive with the ball in their hands.  A RB who can't catch a beach ball like Jordan Howard needs to be elusive to keep his job.

Edited by RMJ_12

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Not sure what you're asking here.. 

 

Le'veon Bell is the best receiving RB in the game, and his patience running the ball does well behind his top tier offensive line.

 

Should we throw out juke rate?  Why would we?  It's very useful finding out who is actually elusive with the ball in their hands.  A RB who can't catch a beach ball like Jordan Howard needs to be elusive to keep his job.

 

Yeah... Howard’s just not losing his job. To who? 24 carry Cohen?

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15 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah... Howard’s just not losing his job. To who? 24 carry Cohen?

He can still underperform and lose it next offseason.

 

FYI Cohen had 87 carries and had a better average than Howard.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

He can still underperform and lose it next offseason.

 

FYI Cohen had 87 carries and had a better average than Howard.

He's supposed to have a better YPC. He gets the passing downs, and the D isn't likely stuffing the line like on Howard's typical down/distance carries. 

 

If they switched spots, Cohen would get blown up. 

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When people ask if winning in fantasy is all luck, I refer them to threads like this where people think Howard is gonna lose his job to Cohen. 

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1 hour ago, petekrum said:

When people ask if winning in fantasy is all luck, I refer them to threads like this where people think Howard is gonna lose his job to Cohen. 

Nobody thinks that.  Read carefully, I mentioned Cohen having a better ypc average as a reason to why Howard may lose his job sooner than later.  Not lose it to Cohen, but to a 2019 draft pick or free agent.

 

Although this all started with someone saying Jordan Howard was an "elite" between the tackles runner.  I'm not sure why he'd even have to lose his job to prove that to not be true.

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10 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

He can still underperform and lose it next offseason.

 

FYI Cohen had 87 carries and had a better average than Howard.

ANY rb can be replaced if they suck it up for a season.    Luckily Howard is very talented and works his butt off.    What’s your point?  

 

Obviously the COP back should have a better YPC.  

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There's small and then there's too small...

Cohen is too small: never going to get a volume of carries,  never going to get a volume of TDs, will get his share of checkdowns, but that's about it...

 

His production fell off significantly in the 2nd half last year.

To me, he's gadget player and little more than a screen pass/checkdown resource and he's just not fantasy relevant other than a bye week fill in.

 

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1 hour ago, Winky said:

There's small and then there's too small...

Cohen is too small: never going to get a volume of carries,  never going to get a volume of TDs, will get his share of checkdowns, but that's about it...

 

His production fell off significantly in the 2nd half last year.

To me, he's gadget player and little more than a screen pass/checkdown resource and he's just not fantasy relevant other than a bye week fill in.

 

That was with fox and Loggans. I think we see a shift and more involvement with cohen

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

That was with fox and Loggans. I think we see a shift and more involvement with cohen

How about the same level of involvement of Cohen, but superior strategic utilization.

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Nobody should reasonably think he's ever going to be a workhorse RB but 7-10 carries on designed draws, reverses, mixed off tackle runs is certainly within his potential outcomes. Add 4-5 receptions and you cold have 75-80 yds per game plus TD's.

 

Not top 6-8 but 1200- 1300+ yds plus 6 or so TD's puts you in the top 15 ish PPR  format @ the position.

 

Maybe We can start a Jordan Howard thread where we can spend 75% of the time discussing Tarik Cohen 

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4 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

Nobody should reasonably think he's ever going to be a workhorse RB but 7-10 carries on designed draws, reverses, mixed off tackle runs is certainly within his potential outcomes. Add 4-5 receptions and you cold have 75-80 yds per game plus TD's.

 

Not top 6-8 but 1200- 1300+ yds plus 6 or so TD's puts you in the top 15 ish PPR  format @ the position.

 

Maybe We can start a Jordan Howard thread where we can spend 75% of the time discussing Tarik Cohen 

 

Seems rather unlikely.  Too boom bust to just extrapolate an average.    

 

Give me 800/4-  rb3.    A nice value if he drops at all.

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I think Cohen is a much better runner than being given credit for but we will see. I see more Brian Westbrook than Tyreek in Tarik.

Edited by howlin' 2

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2 hours ago, howlin' 2 said:

I think Cohen is a much better runner than being given credit for but we will see. I see more Brian Westbrook than Tyreek in Tarik.

 

Didnt you Cohennites learn ya nothin’ last season? 

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3 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Seems rather unlikely.  Too boom bust to just extrapolate an average.    

 

Give me 800/4-  rb3.    A nice value if he drops at all.

 

I do agree that the projection is high, but I don't think can call him "boom / bust" when we haven't seen what his role will be in the offense. Darren Sproles is an easily comparable player, and I think he could reasonably have a consistent role like Sproles did if he continues to earn his keep. He's a match-up nightmare if he can improve his route runnning, and we've seen him look pretty crisp in the slot to date. 

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6 hours ago, Winky said:

There's small and then there's too small...

Cohen is too small: never going to get a volume of carries,  never going to get a volume of TDs, will get his share of checkdowns, but that's about it...

 

His production fell off significantly in the 2nd half last year.

To me, he's gadget player and little more than a screen pass/checkdown resource and he's just not fantasy relevant other than a bye week fill in.

 

Sproles is the same size, and has scored over SIXTY career touchdowns. So, that argument already falls apart. I'm not saying Cohen is as good as Sproles, but dismissing his TD potential simply because of his size is illogical. 

 

Maurice Jones Drew, and Danny Woodhead are two others who scored tons of TDs at roughly the same size. I mean, MJD is 1 inch taller than Cohen, and he scored 16 TDs in a season. You're telling me 5'7" and 200 pounds can be an elite NFL back, but 5'6" one-eighty something is just too small?

 

You can dislike Cohen for a number of reasons, but others have already proven small guys can succeed as NFL RBs. 

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Sproles is the same size, and has scored over SIXTY career touchdowns. So, that argument already falls apart. I'm not saying Cohen is as good as Sproles, but dismissing his TD potential simply because of his size is illogical. 

 

Maurice Jones Drew, and Danny Woodhead are two others who scored tons of TDs at roughly the same size. I mean, MJD is 1 inch taller than Cohen, and he scored 16 TDs in a season. You're telling me 5'7" and 200 pounds can be an elite NFL back, but 5'6" one-eighty something is just too small?

 

You can dislike Cohen for a number of reasons, but others have already proven small guys can succeed as NFL RBs. 

YES!  5’6” 180 is too small to be a feature back.   MJD might have been small but he was built like a fire hydrant.   Cohen is just plain small.   Sproles is his upside, and that’s no insult.   Just not a starting rb.

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