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Tarik Cohen 2018 Outlook

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6 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Vic Fangios record as a DCo speaks for itself as does the personnel. Little reason to believe this is a bad defense,  

 

@Dreams And Dwightmares, this ^^^ is something you should really consider.  I have watched Fangio since his days with the Niners.  As a Niner fan, I wish he was still there.  He is one of the best in the business.  He routinely gets everything and more out of his units.  He can make a subpar defensive roster play competently.

 

As rosters go, Chicago's on both sides of the ball is better than average, perhaps much better than average, depending on how well MT plays.  Personally, having studied MT a bit during his draft year, and then some last season, I believe he will perform just fine (if not better) this season, unless Nagy turns out to be McAdoo in disguise.

 

If we can convince ourselves that the new offensive CS knows what it is doing, then reliable bets can be placed on most Bears fantasy assets IMO.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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9 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Cohen was RB29 last year and he was on a terrible offense. It’s not really that crazy in PPR if he’s being used in a versatile role

Don't get me wrong, I like Cohen. He def can finish top 24 rbs. The problem I see is consistency. He is not a guy getting a ton of touches, so we are counting on receptions to make him relevant. He could be one of those guys that finishes top 24 but has 4 or 5 real good games, 4 or 5 fair games and 4 or 5 stinkers. I think he could be a frustrating own because the Bears. 

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1 hour ago, Mattice1 said:

Don't get me wrong, I like Cohen. He def can finish top 24 rbs. The problem I see is consistency. He is not a guy getting a ton of touches, so we are counting on receptions to make him relevant. He could be one of those guys that finishes top 24 but has 4 or 5 real good games, 4 or 5 fair games and 4 or 5 stinkers. I think he could be a frustrating own because the Bears. 

I tend to think the opposite is true. You're less likely to get a true stinker from a guy like Cohen then you are from an early down back. Barring something crazy, even in his worst week, he should still get you around 20 rushing yards, and 3 catches for 20 receiving yards. That's 8 points.  Not great, but it doesn't kill you. 

 

On the flip side, an early down back like Jordan Howard is always liable to give you that dreaded 16 carries for 39 yards with a lost fumble complete stinker of a game. 

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3 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

@Dreams And Dwightmares, this ^^^ is something you should really consider.  I have watched Fangio since his days with the Niners.  As a Niner fan, I wish he was still there.  He is one of the best in the business.  He routinely gets everything and more out of his units.  He can make a subpar defensive roster play competently.

 

As rosters go, Chicago's on both sides of the ball is better than average, perhaps much better than average, depending on how well MT plays.  Personally, having studied MT a bit during his draft year, and then some last season, I believe he will perform just fine (if not better) this season, unless Nagy turns out to be McAdoo in disguise.

 

If we can convince ourselves that the new offensive CS knows what it is doing, then reliable bets can be placed on most Bears fantasy assets IMO.

 

 

These are good points for sure. I hear what you're saying. I just don't know if I'm ready to fall in line completely without seeing differently than what I believe despite what everyone tells me. 

 

The way I personally see it is that, for better or worse, John Fox ran the hell out of the football. I believe this creates ball control, more time of possession, and therefore a fresher and better defense overall. And it's just common sense that if you have less time to actually score, that it's a direct correlation to scoring the ball less (defense gives up less points AKA better defense). 

 

Nagy has consistently been pretty low in his run focus (run to pass ratio) as an OC. Nagy also had the best kind of ball control at the helm in Alex Smith. 

 

Now I gotta believe that Nagy is going to throw the ball more than the Bears have for the past few years. Throwing the ball more, means running less. Means more 3 and outs and less ball control. Means potential for shorter fields. Means more time for the defense on the field. And thus, to me, it means giving up more points. 

 

We all saw Sean McCay and it's just natural that every fan thinks that their team just got the next one. Maybe he is, but I generally side with probably not. 

 

Not only do I not think mitch trubisky is anything like Alex Smith, I think he's closer to Blake Bortles. I see a lot of short fields being given up. I see more passing yards absolutely, but less rushing yards. I see shorter time of possessions. 

 

You could argue the Broncos were the best defense in the NFL for a while. Then they got a new HC. Ran out the genius Wade Phillips and now are just a below average D with high paid players. 

 

That's fine if everyone thinks I'm dumb for believing what I believe. I just believe that John Fox ran so much cause he saw Matt Barkley and trubisky and Glennon were trash and didn't think they were capable. This year under Nagy we will see though, as will I. 

 

For today, I still really like Cohen and plan to probably keep my bears aims totally and exclusively on him. 

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5 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Now I gotta believe that Nagy is going to throw the ball more than the Bears have for the past few years. Throwing the ball more, means running less. Means more 3 and outs and less ball control. Means potential for shorter fields. Means more time for the defense on the field. And thus, to me, it means giving up more points. 

 

This doesn't make sense to me. This is predicated on the idea that the offense will just not be successful. Which... ya know whatever... that's fine if that's your opinion. But they didn't hold the ball at all last year. They had a ton of short possessions. They had a ton of punts. I don't see how you could see the new offense as one that's going to generate more "three and outs." A Howard run or two followed by an incompletion is a three and out too... I really don't understand this point.

 

As far as McVay... he doesn't have to be McVay to be better than Fox. That's what people don't understand. The most relevant thing about the McVay comp isn't McVay, it's the level of incompetence that Nagy/McVay were replacing. The McVay turnaround wasn't just because he's a great coach, it's because he's a great coach and the coaching that was done for that team the previous year was dreadful, and so a talented roster didn't play up to expectations due to that.

 

The Bears were in a very similar boat last year. If you watch the way that team performed in most games they were in competitive games that their coach lost fairly frequently. That's why your argument that "they'll be absolutely terrible and in throw mode" doesn't make a lot of sense to me-- because that happened like... twice? Three times? All of 2017... So why would it happen in 2018 with a team that did nothing but improve at every facet of the game on paper...

 

So sure your points are right but only if the offense is a COMPLETE failure, which has nothing to do with scheming to pass, or scheming at all. 

 

And I mean no offense by this, but you've shown me no reason to believe you have a strong knowledge of this roster or it's strengths, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. 

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13 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

These are good points for sure. I hear what you're saying. I just don't know if I'm ready to fall in line completely without seeing differently than what I believe despite what everyone tells me. 

 

The way I personally see it is that, for better or worse, John Fox ran the hell out of the football. I believe this creates ball control, more time of possession, and therefore a fresher and better defense overall. And it's just common sense that if you have less time to actually score, that it's a direct correlation to scoring the ball less (defense gives up less points AKA better defense). 

 

Nagy has consistently been pretty low in his run focus (run to pass ratio) as an OC. Nagy also had the best kind of ball control at the helm in Alex Smith. 

 

Now I gotta believe that Nagy is going to throw the ball more than the Bears have for the past few years. Throwing the ball more, means running less. Means more 3 and outs and less ball control. Means potential for shorter fields. Means more time for the defense on the field. And thus, to me, it means giving up more points. 

 

We all saw Sean McCay and it's just natural that every fan thinks that their team just got the next one. Maybe he is, but I generally side with probably not. 

 

Not only do I not think mitch trubisky is anything like Alex Smith, I think he's closer to Blake Bortles. I see a lot of short fields being given up. I see more passing yards absolutely, but less rushing yards. I see shorter time of possessions. 

 

You could argue the Broncos were the best defense in the NFL for a while. Then they got a new HC. Ran out the genius Wade Phillips and now are just a below average D with high paid players. 

 

That's fine if everyone thinks I'm dumb for believing what I believe. I just believe that John Fox ran so much cause he saw Matt Barkley and trubisky and Glennon were trash and didn't think they were capable. This year under Nagy we will see though, as will I. 

 

For today, I still really like Cohen and plan to probably keep my bears aims totally and exclusively on him. 

 

Bears were 18th in rushing attempts in 2017- 422 

chiefs were at 405.    

 

Thats only one attempt per game difference-  and the Chiefs’ plays were being called by Andy Reid for many weeks.    Nagy took the reins back and Hunt went nuts.  

 

 

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47 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Bears were 18th in rushing attempts in 2017- 422 

chiefs were at 405.    

 

Thats only one attempt per game difference-  and the Chiefs’ plays were being called by Andy Reid for many weeks.    Nagy took the reins back and Hunt went nuts.  

 

 

Let's not bring real #s into the discussion.

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45 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Now I gotta believe that Nagy is going to throw the ball more than the Bears have for the past few years. Throwing the ball more, means running less. Means more 3 and outs and less ball control. Means potential for shorter fields. Means more time for the defense on the field. And thus, to me, it means giving up more points. 

 

 

 

Why necessarily?  Is run/pass ratio really a reliable indicator of anything, offensively or defensively?  There are certainly teams that did perfectly fine on both sides of the ball in 2017 who weren't run heavy in ratio:

 

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/17_run_pass_ratios.html

 

Instead, isn't it all about moving the sticks, which can be done just as effectively with the right (usually short) passing game as with hand offs?  A more balanced offense in Chicago could just as easily help the defense than not.

 

If Nagy and MT are disasters then the run/pass ratio will mean nothing.  A rookie coach, combined with a sophomore QB, will always spell risk.  But I am super comfortable saying that there is a quality CS in place on the defensive side of the ball, and MT will be, at minimum, a perfectly serviceable QB in this league.  I was convinced 2 years ago that he had few real flaws in his game, and nothing I saw last season changes my mind.

 

Nagy?  No one knows for sure, but isn't that what we're supposed to be doing this time of year, figuring if we can trust new coaches?  With what is in place in Chicago right now,  Nagy would have to go out of his way to ignite a dumpster.  The worst I foresee offensively is low middle-of-the-pack to much better than that.  Defensively, knowing Fangio, this will be a team in the top 3rd.

 

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9 hours ago, psygolf said:

Let's not bring real #s into the discussion.

Just don't bring in cherry picked ones like here. What were the teams total plays run ? What ratio of run/pass ?

 

W/o looking I'm going to guess KC ran quite a few more plays and yet the Bears still had more rushing attempts. Anybody that watched both teams in '17 wouldn't confuse the two with their approach to offensive game planning.

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38 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

Just don't bring in cherry picked ones like here. What were the teams total plays run ? What ratio of run/pass ?

 

W/o looking I'm going to guess KC ran quite a few more plays and yet the Bears still had more rushing attempts. Anybody that watched both teams in '17 wouldn't confuse the two with their approach to offensive game planning.

 

Sure but let's get down to the real point: the argument being made is that because the Bears are going to pass more they're going to go 3-and-out more. I think that's insane. I think the entire idea that the Bears are going to go 3-And-Out more b/c they added better personnel on the field and sideline is kinda insane. Makes very little sense to me. Why would a better offense go three-and-out more? And why wouldn't this offense be better? Is someone going to make the case to me that Josh Bellamy is a better WR than Allen Robinson? 

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2 hours ago, howlin' 2 said:

 

W/o looking I'm going to guess KC ran quite a few more plays 

It takes 2 seconds to look it up...you obviously didn't find the #s you thought you'd see.

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Sure but let's get down to the real point: the argument being made is that because the Bears are going to pass more they're going to go 3-and-out more. I think that's insane. I think the entire idea that the Bears are going to go 3-And-Out more b/c they added better personnel on the field and sideline is kinda insane. Makes very little sense to me. Why would a better offense go three-and-out more? And why wouldn't this offense be better? Is someone going to make the case to me that Josh Bellamy is a better WR than Allen Robinson? 

 

Let's just see how the season plays out I guess. 

 

I'm not gonna flip cause you or anyone internet attacks me into not believing what I believe. 

 

Maybe y'all will go to the playoffs and do work. Maybe y'all will have a top 10 offense. Maybe y'all will have a top 10 defense. Maybe y'all will have several key fantasy contributors. I am probably going to bet against it. 

 

Sounds like you're gonna bet for it. Do you. It is your right. Time will tell. For now, at relative ADPs, Cohen interests me, and it ends there. 

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1 minute ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Let's just see how the season plays out I guess. 

 

I'm not gonna flip cause you or anyone internet attacks me into not believing what I believe. 

 

Maybe y'all will go to the playoffs and do work. Maybe y'all will have a top 10 offense. Maybe y'all will have a top 10 defense. Maybe y'all will have several key fantasy contributors. I am probably going to bet against it. 

 

Sounds like you're gonna bet for it. Do you. It is your right. Time will tell. For now, at relative ADPs, Cohen interests me, and it ends there. 

 

I'm not asking you to flip I'm asking you to defend your stance. The Bears were in almost every game they played in last year. They lost to the Falcons by 6 (Howard dropped the go-ahead on the Goalline), the Vikings by 3, the Saints by 8, the Packers by 7, the Lions by 3, and the 49ers by 1. That's 6 One-Score Losses. They only truly had three poor performances as a team all season, v. Tampa (loss by 22), @ GB (loss by 21), and @ Philly (loss by 28). So I just don't at all understand your take that a team, losing zero key personnel, and adding through draft and Free Agency numerous quality players, and a team that is one of the younger in all of football, is going to suddenly be significantly worse than last year. That doesn't make sense to me.

 

And you're fine having your opinion. But for one, I do not take it kindly when I get dismissed by your "Well you sound like a fan." Again, no offense meant, but you haven't named one member of our defensive personnel that youv'e been knocking-- which again makes me say: I may be a fan, but that means I know the roster and talent here far better than you do. I've never talked the Bears up in my life. WHY NOW? Last year I said they were going to go 5-11 or 6-10, but they would be far more competitive on a week-to-week basis than most thought because of an underrated defense. I was absolutely right in every aspect of the team. 

 

This year they've added a ton of talent, gotten rid of a poor CS, brought in a CS that, on paper, is utterly phenomenal. But again, my point isn't that you have to change your opinion. I don't care if you change your opinion or not. But defend it. Why am I wrong about anything I have said? What's bad about the defense? Where are the flaws? What don't you like about the personnel? Why do you think that a team that is gaining more and more steam as a sleeper is going to not just fail to live up to expectations, but get so significantly worse that a team that looked absolutely respectable for the first time in years on a week-to-week basis is going to collapse. 

 

So we can both have our opinions. I'd just like you to give me one word as to why you don't think this defense is talented. A single word. 

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13 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Let's just see how the season plays out I guess. 

 

I'm not gonna flip cause you or anyone internet attacks me into not believing what I believe. 

 

Maybe y'all will go to the playoffs and do work. Maybe y'all will have a top 10 offense. Maybe y'all will have a top 10 defense. Maybe y'all will have several key fantasy contributors. I am probably going to bet against it. 

 

Sounds like you're gonna bet for it. Do you. It is your right. Time will tell. For now, at relative ADPs, Cohen interests me, and it ends there. 

Off topic, but I don't understand how your position is consistent with thinking ARob is bad value. 

 

In 2015, the Jags went 5-11 and had the 31st ranked defense in the NFL. In other words, they were bad. ARob had 80 receptions, 1400 yards, and 14 TDs. Again, if the Bears suck, which they could, Cohen AND ARob will be good values. 

Edited by ajs723

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15 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Let's just see how the season plays out I guess. 

 

I'm not gonna flip cause you or anyone internet attacks me into not believing what I believe. 

 

Maybe y'all will go to the playoffs and do work. Maybe y'all will have a top 10 offense. Maybe y'all will have a top 10 defense. Maybe y'all will have several key fantasy contributors. I am probably going to bet against it. 

 

Sounds like you're gonna bet for it. Do you. It is your right. Time will tell. For now, at relative ADPs, Cohen interests me, and it ends there. 

 

And again-- I'm not trying to be a dick. But you came into this thread and directly said "I am bearish on this team. It is the worst team in football. I think they will suck at every aspect of the game." And that is a very thin paraphrase-- that is almost exactly what you said.

 

I think the D-Line is good. I think the linebackers are good. I think the Secondary is honestly great. I think the D-Coaching is amongst the very best in football. I think our O-Line is a top half unit. I think the receivers are good with a chance to be pretty special. The backs are strong.

 

"They will suck in all aspects"... well okay... but lets' start by just pointing out one. What am I wrong about? Again-- you came in this thread VERY aggressive with your opinion... so I odn't think it's wrong for me to think you should at least have a strong reason to believe what you have to say... 

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41 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Off topic, but I don't understand how your position is consistent with thinking ARob is bad value. 

 

In 2015, the Jags went 5-11 and had the 31st ranked defense in the NFL. In other words, they were bad. ARob had 80 receptions, 1400 yards, and 14 TDs. Again, if the Bears suck, which they could, Cohen AND ARob will be good values. 

 

I'd rather draft other players at his relative ADP. 

 

If you think he'll get 1400 yards and 11 TD's then I strongly recommend you draft him though. 

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39 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

And again-- I'm not trying to be a dick. But you came into this thread and directly said "I am bearish on this team. It is the worst team in football. I think they will suck at every aspect of the game." And that is a very thin paraphrase-- that is almost exactly what you said.

 

I think the D-Line is good. I think the linebackers are good. I think the Secondary is honestly great. I think the D-Coaching is amongst the very best in football. I think our O-Line is a top half unit. I think the receivers are good with a chance to be pretty special. The backs are strong.

 

"They will suck in all aspects"... well okay... but lets' start by just pointing out one. What am I wrong about? Again-- you came in this thread VERY aggressive with your opinion... so I odn't think it's wrong for me to think you should at least have a strong reason to believe what you have to say... 

 

And I said "do you". 

 

Disagree with any and everything I say. It is your right and I respect that. 

 

Do you. 

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9 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

And I said "do you". 

 

Disagree with any and everything I say. It is your right and I respect that. 

 

Do you. 

 

So you can't point out a single poor aspect of the defense then? I'm not even really disagreeing. You haven't given me anything to disagree with. And again-- I'm literally not trying to be rude. I'd just like it if you could say one thing defending your opinion. You can't back up your statements? 

 

Why is it wrong for me to ask why you think the team is bad? Why is it wrong for me to ask why you think the defense in particular is bad? 

 

And I'll just link my Chibears post here instead in lue of going into further detail about the personnel unprompted.

 

Edited by taobball

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I'd rather draft other players at his relative ADP. 

 

If you think he'll get 1400 yards and 11 TD's then I strongly recommend you draft him though. 

The volume will be there. The TDs and long chunk plays are always unpredictable. 

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Hopefully the coaching change brings more consistent touches in both the rushing and receiving catagory. Seven games with three or fewer carries. Also had a five game stretch (weeks 5-10) that he had a total of five catches! With the thinking that he will see a more consistent role in the offense, a top 30 PPR finish seems like his floor.

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7 hours ago, The Three Reynolds said:

Hopefully the coaching change brings more consistent touches in both the rushing and receiving catagory. Seven games with three or fewer carries. Also had a five game stretch (weeks 5-10) that he had a total of five catches! With the thinking that he will see a more consistent role in the offense, a top 30 PPR finish seems like his floor.

I cannot bank on him even getting the same amount of targets this year until the receiver totem pole is shown...too many faces to add.

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15 hours ago, The Three Reynolds said:

Hopefully the coaching change brings more consistent touches in both the rushing and receiving catagory. Seven games with three or fewer carries. Also had a five game stretch (weeks 5-10) that he had a total of five catches! With the thinking that he will see a more consistent role in the offense, a top 30 PPR finish seems like his floor.

 

7 hours ago, psygolf said:

I cannot bank on him even getting the same amount of targets this year until the receiver totem pole is shown...too many faces to add.

 

I agree in general with the latter, but I have a hard time believing in any situation of the totem pole that he will have any stretch that is as extreme as Weeks 5-10 from last season as shown above. In general, the depth chart for backs is not that deep, so his Snap% should be fairly high if he does well in Pass Pro. I think it's hard to bank on it, but I think it is likely to be the same or slightly better. I think those are the most likely outcomes. 

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35 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

I agree in general with the latter, but I have a hard time believing in any situation of the totem pole that he will have any stretch that is as extreme as Weeks 5-10 from last season as shown above. In general, the depth chart for backs is not that deep, so his Snap% should be fairly high if he does well in Pass Pro. I think it's hard to bank on it, but I think it is likely to be the same or slightly better. I think those are the most likely outcomes. 

You have a major addition at WR & TE...plus Miller, Gabriel (and maybe a healthy White) are substantially better wr2/wr3 options than anything they threw out there last year. Shaheen has to be better in this Nagy' offense...then you need to mix in the big wrs Fowler, Brown, Wims that will be worthy of a few throws.

 

I'm still thinking he'll be fortunate to see the same amount of use as last year, though he should be able to do more with each opportunity.

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5 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You have a major addition at WR & TE...plus Miller, Gabriel (and maybe a healthy White) are substantially better wr2/wr3 options than anything they threw out there last year. Shaheen has to be better in this Nagy' offense...then you need to mix in the big wrs Fowler, Brown, Wims that will be worthy of a few throws.

 

I'm still thinking he'll be fortunate to see the same amount of use as last year, though he should be able to do more with each opportunity.

 

True, but for snap% they brought in only one UDFA at RB. That’s all I’m saying. 

 

Edit: also Brown I don’t think makes the roster

Edited by taobball

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46 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You have a major addition at WR & TE...plus Miller, Gabriel (and maybe a healthy White) are substantially better wr2/wr3 options than anything they threw out there last year. Shaheen has to be better in this Nagy' offense...then you need to mix in the big wrs Fowler, Brown, Wims that will be worthy of a few throws.

 

I'm still thinking he'll be fortunate to see the same amount of use as last year, though he should be able to do more with each opportunity.

Also, don't forget that the Bears might throw 100 more passes this season. 

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