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Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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5 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

2:  Even in your fantasy land example of 1700/10 with 35 receptions for 265 fantasy points, that barely breaks the top 5 RBs last year, in a year were DJ, Zeke, and Barkley didn't play all year.  Basically, assuming health of all RBs involved in this 'perfect' scenario you outline, he's not even in the top half of RB1s.  If that doesn't express what I mean when I say he lacks the upside, especially when I give FULL context of who I'm comparing him to, like AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski all finishing as top 5 fantasy point scorers OVERALL, then I don't know how else to prove the point that he lacks the ceiling I would like to see from a 2nd round pick.  I mean hell, he's being drafted right after D.Freeman who just 3 seasons ago broke out for 320 fantasy points as the #1 back overall.  This is exactly my point.  If your 'upside' is back end RB1, and people are drafting you as the 13th RB off the board, then I think my point stands, he's being over-drafted, drafted near his ceiling, and is a prime candidate to potentially disappoint people this year.  And to clarify, just because you disappoint doesn't mean you're automatically a bust.

 

To try and put this into perspective another way, your dream scenario for Howard is 265 fantasy points, which is 16.5 PPG.

Last year there were 10 different RBs who averaged higher than that, 5 WRs, and Gronk.  In your perfect world for Howard, he'll have the 17th highest PPG average in the league, and you're currently drafting him 20th overall.  You've perfectly demonstrated what I mean, by low ceiling, and overdrafted.

*If you want to argue Standard scoring, be my guest, I was blatantly clear that I'm referring to PPR.

10 TDS is closer to his floor than ceiling. His ceiling for TDs is closer to 17-20 rushing. No one else is going to get GL carries and if the offense improves and he gets lucky with a few PIs in the end zone and he will obliterate that projection.

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8 hours ago, Nap Time said:

As for calling the #11 OL in the league "awful", the quality of your judgement is being revealed.

Football outsiders puts their line 28th for run blocking in terms of adjusted yards per play which separates the RB from the line. In fact, Howard vastly overperformed in comparison to quality of the line.

 

Furthermore, the Bears RBs were stuffed on 26% of their carries ranking 26th in the league. They also ranked 28th in power plays which are largely dependent on the line. 

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5 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Only going to focus on the points I feel have any relevance to the discussion.

 

1: 220-240 is not low.  There were only 13 RBs in the entire league who had more than 220 carries last year.

 

2:  Even in your fantasy land example of 1700/10 with 35 receptions for 265 fantasy points, that barely breaks the top 5 RBs last year, in a year were DJ, Zeke, and Barkley didn't play all year.  Basically, assuming health of all RBs involved in this 'perfect' scenario you outline, he's not even in the top half of RB1s.  If that doesn't express what I mean when I say he lacks the upside, especially when I give FULL context of who I'm comparing him to, like AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski all finishing as top 5 fantasy point scorers OVERALL, then I don't know how else to prove the point that he lacks the ceiling I would like to see from a 2nd round pick.  I mean hell, he's being drafted right after D.Freeman who just 3 seasons ago broke out for 320 fantasy points as the #1 back overall.  This is exactly my point.  If your 'upside' is back end RB1, and people are drafting you as the 13th RB off the board, then I think my point stands, he's being over-drafted, drafted near his ceiling, and is a prime candidate to potentially disappoint people this year.  And to clarify, just because you disappoint doesn't mean you're automatically a bust.

 

To try and put this into perspective another way, your dream scenario for Howard is 265 fantasy points, which is 16.5 PPG.

Last year there were 10 different RBs who averaged higher than that, 5 WRs, and Gronk.  In your perfect world for Howard, he'll have the 17th highest PPG average in the league, and you're currently drafting him 20th overall.  You've perfectly demonstrated what I mean, by low ceiling, and overdrafted.

 

 

Just wanted to echo what @Gohawks just said - you can't call 10 TD's a "ceiling" and have any credibility in this discussion.  Howard had 9 TD's last year and the team was atrocious!  A ceiling isn't the most likely scenario, it's supposed to be "what could happen if absolutely everything breaks right?"  We've clearly seen over the last several seasons that a workhorse RB in a good offense will always have 20 TD upside, which all of a sudden takes Howard's actual ceiling up to the 320+ fantasy points that Freeman had 3 years ago as RB1 in fantasy.  

 

The funny thing about RB's is that the top scoring ones in fantasy tend to also score the most TD's.  Gurley was RB1 last year on the strength of 20 TD's, after scoring 10 and 6 his previous seasons.  David Johnson in 2016 scored 20 TD's.  In 2015 Freeman led the league with 14 total TD's and finished RB1.  My point isn't that Howard is as talented as Gurley or DJ or Freeman, it's that a 10 TD ceiling is not accurate for a 3-down workhorse RB who averages 290 touches a year, who plays in an improving offense.  

 

You can downgrade Howard in your personal rankings if you don't think there's a high likelihood of him reaching his ceiling, but it's illogical to call 10 TD's his ceiling and then downgrade him for having a "lower ceiling" than the other RB's.  If you want to talk low ceiling, let's really think about a logical ceiling for McCoy this year, playing in what could be the league's worst offense.  And with a more logical GL RB choice right behind him on the depth chart in Ivory.  McCoy's ceiling is going to be seriously capped, regardless of work load.  

 

Also just wanted to point out for your point #1, 220-240 might not be low by NFL standards overall, but it is low when you consider Howard has had 281 and 299 touches in his first two seasons.  Why you would think that will all of a sudden drop to 220-240 is beyond me.

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

There’s not much to talk about. This thread was dead until myself and a few other posters started hyping him up. 

 

He he has one of the most defined roles in the league and less question marks than multiple guys going above him like Barkley, Kamara, and Fournette. 


I can't think of a R1/R2 RB who has a more poorly defined role than Howard.  Maybe Cook because of the injury the coaches are going to favor Murray for an indeterminate amount of time.  We just don't know how much of a role Cohen will play.

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1 minute ago, Nap Time said:


I can't think of a R1/R2 RB who has a more poorly defined role than Howard.  Maybe Cook because of the injury the coaches are going to favor Murray for an indeterminate amount of time.  We just don't know how much of a role Cohen will play.

 

JoHo is the three-down workhouse.  Cohen is a satellite RB.  Their roles seem to be crystal clear.  Part of this is me speculating because I am not in the coach's inner circle, but if this is not the case, someone might have to check Nagy's pulse. 

Edited by dudewithabadcat
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2 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

JoHo is the three-down workhouse.  Cohen is a satellite RB.  Their roles seem to be crystal clear.  Part of this is me speculating because I am not in the coach's inner circle, but if this is not the case, someone might have to check Nagy's pulse. 

 

JoHo has hands of stone, so the coach's words are hard to fully trust.  We really don't know yet how good Cohen is, which will determine his usage.  We'll find out soon, but after we've drafted.
 

Here's the real positive on Howard:  I've seen two different sources say the Bears have the easiest RB schedule in the entire league.  That's huge.  To me, that makes him an excellent value late in the 2nd round.

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9 minutes ago, Nap Time said:


I can't think of a R1/R2 RB who has a more poorly defined role than Howard.  Maybe Cook because of the injury the coaches are going to favor Murray for an indeterminate amount of time.  We just don't know how much of a role Cohen will play.

We do know Howard’s role. It’s not hard to figure out what kind of role a 5 foot 6 RB that weighs 180 is going to have.

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

We do know Howard’s role. It’s not hard to figure out what kind of role a 5 foot 6 RB that weighs 180 is going to have.

 

Dion Lewis has two inches and 15 pounds on this guy. 

6 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

JoHo has hands of stone, so the coach's words are hard to fully trust.  We really don't know yet how good Cohen is, which will determine his usage.  We'll find out soon, but after we've drafted.

Sounds like he has been working hard on his hands.  The way I interpret this is that he finally found the proper super sticky gloves and has learned to stick his palms out, let the ball hit the palms, and all he has to do is cradle said ball - we all know it is all about the super sticky gloves. 

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9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

We do know Howard’s role. It’s not hard to figure out what kind of role a 5 foot 6 RB that weighs 180 is going to have.

 

OK, and dudewithabadcat said Howard is a 3-down workhorse and you didn't disagree so I consider that an endorsement.  So you think that Cohen will not be the primary RB in passing downs and will only play when Howard needs a break.  We'll come back to that in a few months.

Edited by phatrat
Name calling removed.
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Reports say Cohen is going to be used all over the field.  Some suggest it's only a matter of time before he gets a RB/WR designation because of how he's expected to be used.  Nagy has said Howard will stay on the field on third downs.  I don't think Cohen cuts into Howard's workload because they will both be on the field at the same time and they have vastly different skillsets.  The reason people say Howard has a high floor is because there is noone else on the team to challenge him for the between the tackles runner role.  

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8 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Only going to focus on the points I feel have any relevance to the discussion.

Mmk. Kinda wondering why this line you felt necessary. 

 

Quote

1: 220-240 is not low.  There were only 13 RBs in the entire league who had more than 220 carries last year.

 

It is low for a Howard projection. If you think that's not true you ahve to explain to me the diffusion of carries, because I think that projection is pretty crazy. Your "only 13 RBs" does not account for injury or does it put any weight into Howard's individual situation-- which is what we're discussing. I'd be shocked if Howard played a healthy 16 and saw less than 240. If you think he's likely to see less, who's getting the carries? 

 

Quote

2:  Even in your fantasy land example of 1700/10 with 35 receptions for 265 fantasy points, that barely breaks the top 5 RBs last year, in a year were DJ, Zeke, and Barkley didn't play all year. 

 

Fantasy land? Doing what he did in his rookie season + 2 games in a better offense is fantasy land? You mentioned later this was MY ceiling, but it was clearly based directly on YOUR post. I don't think the CEILING is 10 TDs. He's the absolute primary option anywhere near the Goal-Line, and has always be effective. His 9 TDs on a bad offense last year were a testament to that. I think he's more LIKELY to see 8-10 TDs and getting up closer to a TD per game I don't think is that crazy. 

 

And that's the real difference. you keep acting like it's pure ceiling and floor, but it's not. You clearly expect him to repeat his floor, and have very little chance of doing better. And that's fine. But that has nothign to do with his ceiling. So if you wanna draft him at his floor, you go ahead. I'm not going to stop you. But we disagree on what a realistic expectation, and optimistic projection, and a ceiling are for Howard. My projection for each category is significantly higher than yours.

 

So even though you tried to mock the argument by consistently referring to it as "fantasy land," I don't agree Howard's a low-ceiling back. We just see it differnetly. Don't know why that's so offensive to you. 

 

Quote

3: I'd ask what you're basing this on?  Crowell has already proven to be a better and more efficient pass catcher than Howard.  Crow hasn't rushed for 1k yards, because the Browns were actually worse than the Bears, and he gets 200 carries a year, not 270.  How is Crow's 4.8 and 4.1 Pedestrian, but Howards 5.2 and 4.1 isn't?

 

Well for one, you took the BEST two seasons from one player and the ONLY two seasons from another, and didn't even mention you were doing it. So play fair. Crow's 4.8 clearly looks like an outlier next to his 4.1, 4.1, and 3.8. I'd also argue that, traditionally, higher volume backs suffer in terms of YPC. Particularly high volume backs who run a high volume of carries into stacked fronts. So yeah, I do kinda think Howard's career YPC performance is substantially more impressive than Crow's, and you manipulating that sample doesn't change that. 

 

Quote

  I can make the same argument that Howards 2016 is an outlier, and 2017 is what we can expect the rest of his pedestrian career to look like.  (I'm not saying that, I'm just making an example)  There is no physical proof that Howard is more talented than Crowell.

 

There's not "physical proof" almost ever about talent. I've watched both play a lot of football. One is a lot better at playing football. I'm very confident in that assessment, whether you agree or not. 

 

Quote

Should Howard be better?  Well for a 2nd round pick he damn well better be.  The point isn't that I think you should draft Crowell in the 2nd or ahead of Howard, it's to point out how similar these 2 could be by years end, compared to how drastic their current draft prices are.

 

Yeah I mean, we'll see if Crowell can even outplay Powell consistently first. Good luck with this comparison. 


 

Quote

 

4:  If 90% of my argument is based on the fact I believe Howard is being over drafted... then I'm sorry, the under-drafting of multiple players behind him on the ADP list, is the exact argument we're having and 100% valid.  How else would I prove Howard is being overdrafted, other than to point out the players drafted after him that I think should go before him?  Howard shouldn't be drafted ahead of Gronk, Green, Evans, and I'd even argue Hilton/McCoy in my opinion.  But I understand these players have concerns around them, so I get it.  Which is why I said, if you're interested in that type of Safety, high floor player, and want to avoid a potential Gronk/Luck injury, McCoy suspension etc, there's nothing wrong with that.  Just don't tell me you're doing it because he has the same or better upside than these type of players.


 

 

I said I'd take him over McCoy, I said ONE player was being signficantly inappropriately ranked. That was Gronk. You're placing him about a round different than I am. So my point was that Gronk I agree with, about 12 other players I don't. 

Quote

 

I never said overrated, but I'll bite:

 

Carlos Hyde was on a worse offense and with the exact same amount of total touches (299) averaged 2.2 more points per game higher than Howard, despite fewer TDs, finishing as the #8 PPR back last year.

Carlos Hyde went to a better team, with a better(more established?) QB, with significantly better WRs/TEs around him than the Bears have... and yet you're ranking/drafting Howard 3-5 full rounds earlier than Hyde.

 

Explain that.

 

Explain to me how Howard isn't being overdrafted relative to Hyde.  I assume it's universally agreed that Hyde is a more talented RB than Howard from a skill/talent point of view, so that can't possibly be your excuse for the ADP discrepancy.  

 

 

Um... What and/or Why? Again. You keep acting like this ISN'T the issue. It clearly is. If we're picking players for one year in real football for a real football team, there's no way in hell I'm touching Carlos Hyde before Jordan Howard. That's a joke to me. Howard is far more talented to me than Hyde. And at the least it's close. To be dismissive of that is crazy to me. 

 

Quote

Chubb has looked atrocious and Hyde has looked fantastic thus far in preseason.  Duke will definitely prevent Hyde from even approaching last years targets/receptions.  40-50 targets, 25-35 catches is probably best case scenario for Hyde I would assume (w/o a Duke injury anyways) given Tyrods ability to run, combined with Duke and Landry dominating the short middle part of the field.

 

You can dismiss all these issues as not big issues, but Howard has none of these issues. 

 

 

At the end of the day we just very much disagree. We disagree on every level about the player. We disagree about how good he is. We disagree about what a realistic expectation is. We disagree about how likely it is to put up the same line. And there's no problem with that-- You seem to be taking it a little outside of football though for some reason, so this is MY last post on the subject, in regards to you. 

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7 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Only going to focus on the points I feel have any relevance to the discussion.

 

1: 220-240 is not low.  There were only 13 RBs in the entire league who had more than 220 carries last year.

 

2:  Even in your fantasy land example of 1700/10 with 35 receptions for 265 fantasy points, that barely breaks the top 5 RBs last year, in a year were DJ, Zeke, and Barkley didn't play all year.  Basically, assuming health of all RBs involved in this 'perfect' scenario you outline, he's not even in the top half of RB1s.  If that doesn't express what I mean when I say he lacks the upside, especially when I give FULL context of who I'm comparing him to, like AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski all finishing as top 5 fantasy point scorers OVERALL, then I don't know how else to prove the point that he lacks the ceiling I would like to see from a 2nd round pick.  I mean hell, he's being drafted right after D.Freeman who just 3 seasons ago broke out for 320 fantasy points as the #1 back overall.  This is exactly my point.  If your 'upside' is back end RB1, and people are drafting you as the 13th RB off the board, then I think my point stands, he's being over-drafted, drafted near his ceiling, and is a prime candidate to potentially disappoint people this year.  And to clarify, just because you disappoint doesn't mean you're automatically a bust.

 

To try and put this into perspective another way, your dream scenario for Howard is 265 fantasy points, which is 16.5 PPG.

Last year there were 10 different RBs who averaged higher than that, 5 WRs, and Gronk.  In your perfect world for Howard, he'll have the 17th highest PPG average in the league, and you're currently drafting him 20th overall.  You've perfectly demonstrated what I mean, by low ceiling, and overdrafted.

*If you want to argue Standard scoring, be my guest, I was blatantly clear that I'm referring to PPR.

 

3: I'd ask what you're basing this on?  Crowell has already proven to be a better and more efficient pass catcher than Howard.  Crow hasn't rushed for 1k yards, because the Browns were actually worse than the Bears, and he gets 200 carries a year, not 270.  How is Crow's 4.8 and 4.1 Pedestrian, but Howards 5.2 and 4.1 isn't?  I can make the same argument that Howards 2016 is an outlier, and 2017 is what we can expect the rest of his pedestrian career to look like.  (I'm not saying that, I'm just making an example)  There is no physical proof that Howard is more talented than Crowell.  More productive when given 70 more carriers?  Well duh.  The entire point is that he's no longer on the Browns and has the chance to increase his workload on the Jets into the 220-240 range, should now how goal line duties to himself, and will likely get more targets than Howard will see with a better catch rate.  Should Howard be better?  Well for a 2nd round pick he damn well better be.  The point isn't that I think you should draft Crowell in the 2nd or ahead of Howard, it's to point out how similar these 2 could be by years end, compared to how drastic their current draft prices are.

 

If you want to argue that Powell is better than Duke Johnson, be my guest.  I adamantly disagree, and think Crowell on the Jets now has his clearest path to touches in his entire career.  I don't think Cohen is a direct threat to Howard, but I also don't think he can possibly be less involved than he was last year, where his stat lines were regularly 2 carries and 2 targets for a combined 15 yards.  That doesn't mean they necessarily have to come at the expense of Howard, but time will tell.

 

4:  If 90% of my argument is based on the fact I believe Howard is being over drafted... then I'm sorry, the under-drafting of multiple players behind him on the ADP list, is the exact argument we're having and 100% valid.  How else would I prove Howard is being overdrafted, other than to point out the players drafted after him that I think should go before him?  Howard shouldn't be drafted ahead of Gronk, Green, Evans, and I'd even argue Hilton/McCoy in my opinion.  But I understand these players have concerns around them, so I get it.  Which is why I said, if you're interested in that type of Safety, high floor player, and want to avoid a potential Gronk/Luck injury, McCoy suspension etc, there's nothing wrong with that.  Just don't tell me you're doing it because he has the same or better upside than these type of players.

 

 

I never said overrated, but I'll bite:

 

Carlos Hyde was on a worse offense and with the exact same amount of total touches (299) averaged 2.2 more points per game higher than Howard, despite fewer TDs, finishing as the #8 PPR back last year.

Carlos Hyde went to a better team, with a better(more established?) QB, with significantly better WRs/TEs around him than the Bears have... and yet you're ranking/drafting Howard 3-5 full rounds earlier than Hyde.

 

Explain that.

 

Explain to me how Howard isn't being overdrafted relative to Hyde.  I assume it's universally agreed that Hyde is a more talented RB than Howard from a skill/talent point of view, so that can't possibly be your excuse for the ADP discrepancy.  Chubb has looked atrocious and Hyde has looked fantastic thus far in preseason.  Duke will definitely prevent Hyde from even approaching last years targets/receptions.  40-50 targets, 25-35 catches is probably best case scenario for Hyde I would assume (w/o a Duke injury anyways) given Tyrods ability to run, combined with Duke and Landry dominating the short middle part of the field.

 

I have Howard currently ranked 20th among RBs.  Only 7 spots lower than where he's currently being drafted.

Names I have ahead of him, that are likely not popular:

LeSean McCoy.  No matter how trash the Bills are, this offense will run through McCoy, on workload alone he should be a high end RB2.

Mark Ingram.  Suspension, I get it.  But I think he'll be more valuable to your team, because he'll have a larger effect to your Win/Loss column in 12 weeks than Howard will in 16.  18PPG for 12 weeks > 13PPG for 16 weeks.  It's a weekly game, 8-9 wins is all it takes to get to the playoffs.

Jay Ajayi/Joe Mixon/Jerrick McKinnon are all based on upside, with an admitted much lower floor, and unknown factor.  Having Howard above these 3 wouldn't really bother me.

Lamar Miller.  This is pretty dependent on Watson, but basically for 2 years I've said things can't possibly go worse for this guy, and then... they do.  Even in both of these terrible years, he's scored 193 fantasy points, just 8 shy of what Jordan Howard managed on 299 touches last season.  If that's his floor, then I think he's just as safe as Howard, but his upside is much higher given his production for the albeit small run of games he had with Watson last year.

And the final one is Hyde, who I explained above.

 

7 RBs is the grand difference between my ranks and the world's.  3 of those 7 out scored Howard just last year and I don't see a reason for that not to repeat. Miller was essentially a wash.  Ajayi, McKinnon, and Mixon all enter completely new scenarios that are unknowns and bring us back to the risk vs reward, floor vs ceiling debate, where I have stated from the get go, I completely understand both sides.  I'm simply pointing out, that I tend to favor the risk/reward/ceiling/upside of these 3 than Howard.

 

I think the bigger disconnect is my overall rankings, with how many WRs I have above, not just Howard, but many RBs, in a year where every other person in the world is telling you to go RB heavy.  In a year where you can land McCoy in the 3rd, Miller in the 4th, Ingram in the 5th, Hyde in the 6th, AP in the 7th, and Crow in the 8th... I have no problems coming out of the first 2 rounds without a RB, if the board offers you the right players, like AB and Gronk for example.  Hop and M.Thomas is another one I've seen often, OBJ and Julio at the wrap, etc.

 

I can also cherry pick WRs. Point is Howard has been the model of consistency with an improving offense. His ADP is right where it should be.

 

I also like Hyde but he's on a new team so a completely different scenario than where he was last year. He should have been put in your "unknown" pile

 

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1 hour ago, Nap Time said:

 

OK, and dudewithabadcat said Howard is a 3-down workhorse and you didn't disagree so I consider that an endorsement.  So you think that Cohen will not be the primary RB in passing downs and will only play when Howard needs a break.  We'll come back to that in a few months.

 

Define primary RB on passing downs? I echo the sentiment that Cohen is less of a running back then a lot of people suggest. Cohen may be on the field in 3rd and forever, but in neutral or slightly passing favored situations I expect Howard to dominate snaps, yes.

 

You’re underestimating his ability to draw the defense in. The defensive personnel you use for Cohen and the defensive personnel you use for a high speed 3WR set are the same. It makes personnel decisions easy. Howard in the backfield with a combination of AR, Burton, Miller, Gabriel, Cohen, or another TE puts the defense at a crossroads. Howard has proven to be a very hard tackle one on one so if you go with a smaller defense you take the risk of losing to the ground game. This is also why I think Howard sees fewer stacked fronts. 

 

And then theres just the fact that being a pass blocker is relevant. I believe Howard can be a positive impact in the passing game with just blocking. If he has time Trubisky should get open looks often if his receivers have enough time. 

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15 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I'm not saying Howard is a nobody... BUT...

Plenty of RBs come out of nowhere, produce well, and then disappear because it turns out they are nobodies.

 

Alfred Morris

Zac Stacy

CJ Spiller

Andre Ellington

Ben Tate

Justin Forsett

Eddie Lacy

Trent Richardson

Jeremy Hill

Doug Martin

Latavius Murray

Thomas Rawls

Spencer Ware

Chris Ivory

Lagarrette Blount

CJ Anderson

Steven Ridley

 

Alfred Morris and Eddie Lacy are the only backs on this list that had over 1,000 yards rushing their first 2 seasons.   I think Morris falloff was more attributed to the Redskins faltering run scheme, and then being stuck behind Zeke once traded to the Cowboys, rather than him lacking talent.  We all know Lacy just got fat.  Watching all 3 of these guys run, Howard looks far more talented and explosive, breaking off bigger runs than the 2 aforementioned guys ever did, plus he rarely fumbles.  He achieved more yards on less carries than the other 2 as well.  He's the real deal.

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JoHo came out of nowhere?  Guy was a stud running back at Indiana University.  If you watched a collegiate game, you would have definitely noticed him to be a somebody.  I am flabbergasted that we think this guy is just building his resume.  He was literally one of the best downhill runners in the NCAA on a pretty bad team.  He is more than just "somebody that came out of nowhere".  He was always there but people ignored his talent. 

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15 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I'm not saying Howard is a nobody... BUT...

Plenty of RBs come out of nowhere, produce well, and then disappear because it turns out they are nobodies.

 

Alfred Morris

Zac Stacy

CJ Spiller

Andre Ellington

Ben Tate

Justin Forsett

Eddie Lacy

Trent Richardson

Jeremy Hill

Doug Martin

Latavius Murray

Thomas Rawls

Spencer Ware

Chris Ivory

Lagarrette Blount

CJ Anderson

Steven Ridley

 

That's just in the last 5 years, just the RB position, and just at a quick glance without digging for stats.  Guys break out, many to different degrees, or for different reasons, and then fade into irrelevance, or get relegated to backup duty for the rest of their careers.  They weren't 'nobody' when they were leading the team, but it didn't take long to replace, move on from, and forget them.

 

 

I think this list is a bit unfair. A bunch of those names aren't nobodies or irrelevant yet. Unless your RBs tiers fall into two categories: nobodies or HoFamers.

 

Morris is still a relevant backup or starter in the right scheme (zone blocking). Hill isn't irrelevant yet. Murray is relevant in Minnesota. Blount is still relevant. CJA relevant. Ware suffers an injury last season and becomes irrelevant? We don't know what has become of him yet.

 

Some of those guys were fantasy hype machines like Spiller, Stacy, Tate, and Ellington. I don't remember Ellington ever being able to handle the lead role. Tate was a backup. Stacy had part of one mediocre season.

 

And RB is the shortest career length. Not surprising to see guys replaced more quickly. I think in some ways we are spoiled by how long a starting receiver might be relevant, but RBs quickly fall off a cliff.

 

Howard is only in his 3rd season though.

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14 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

$100 says Howard doesn't get 329 touches this year.

I enjoy your write-ups and discussion so appreciate the work you put into your longer posts.  Having said that I believe Howard is in a better position this year and a better offense where scoring should go up.  If Allen and Burton can stay healthy and Miller adds some speed to the O I think it will go along way to helping Howard.

 

Improved coaching and better talent on O I think think Howard takes a step forward rather than back as you allude to as a possibility in your post.  Maybe he ends up a nobody but I think his outlook is the other direction due to the factors I mention.

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

We do know Howard’s role. It’s not hard to figure out what kind of role a 5 foot 6 RB that weighs 180 is going to have.

 

I've said this in many threads.  Strength of schedule only matters for the first 5 or 6 weeks.  After that, injuries and scheme changes and all that start to take effect and defensive strength changes.  Don't put too much stock into it.  It is a factor but not a big one.

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15 minutes ago, kp96 said:

 

I've said this in many threads.  Strength of schedule only matters for the first 5 or 6 weeks.  After that, injuries and scheme changes and all that start to take effect and defensive strength changes.  Don't put too much stock into it.  It is a factor but not a big one.

Tell that to the Drake owners come week 16 (most Fantasy Championship week) when he runs into JAX DST.   Just an example to keep at least an eye on SOS after the first 5 or 6 weeks.

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2 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Tell that to the Drake owners come week 16 (most Fantasy Championship week) when he runs into JAX DST.   Just an example to keep at least an eye on SOS after the first 5 or 6 weeks.

 

There's no guarantee that the jax defense will be at full strength by week 16.  Would be foolish to pass on drake because of his week 16 matchup.  Half that defense could be hurt...they may be out of the playoffs and playing their youngsters...etc.

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8 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Tell that to the Drake owners come week 16 (most Fantasy Championship week) when he runs into JAX DST.   Just an example to keep at least an eye on SOS after the first 5 or 6 weeks.

Really gonna worry about week 16 defense???  I mean Sf put up 44 vs them in week 16 last year.

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2 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Really gonna worry about week 16 defense???  I mean Sf put up 44 vs them in week 16 last year.

 

Worrying about a players Week 16 matchup is paralysis by analysis. If I started taking that deep of a look into every player, I'd probably just drink my face off during the draft, tell all sorts of lies, and let my team be autodrafted. 

 

With that being said, Drake is playing Week 16 because Miami is fighting for a wild card seed and he is going to be balling.  Also, JoHo will be balling too because the NFC North is going to be one of the tougher conferences this year. 

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2 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Really gonna worry about week 16 defense???  I mean Sf put up 44 vs them in week 16 last year.

Nope. I never worry in fantasy.  Life is too short and this is a game,  but I don't just completely dismiss teams schedules as factors to possible outcomes.  It can be useful.

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7 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Really gonna worry about week 16 defense???  I mean Sf put up 44 vs them in week 16 last year.

 

not to mention JAX isn't studly against the run 

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Just now, kp96 said:

 

There's no guarantee that the jax defense will be at full strength by week 16.  Would be foolish to pass on drake because of his week 16 matchup.  Half that defense could be hurt...they may be out of the playoffs and playing their youngsters...etc.

It’s just as foolish to put no weight into S.O.S as it is too put a ton of weight into it.

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