ajs723

Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

Message added by tonycpsu

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

Message added by tonycpsu

Recommended Posts

Victim of gameflow. How well they looked in the passing game is a positive overall for Howard moving forward as they can actually move the ball now and put him in positions to score. Today was a dud for sure. Obviously you can't sell with a bye coming up, just hold tight.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Deadpool said:

Victim of gameflow. How well they looked in the passing game is a positive overall for Howard moving forward as they can actually move the ball now and put him in positions to score. Today was a dud for sure. Obviously you can't sell with a bye coming up, just hold tight.

 

Traditionally when you get a big lead you lean on the run to eat the clock - especially when you have an elite D to hold the other team at bay.  Gameflow would dictate this is exactly the type of game that Howard should've flourished in. But gameflow in a Nagy offense has no true meaning or predictability.  Howard has been in positions to score all season, but instead of using Howard, Nagy has to prove he's smarter than everyone else.

Edited by TheINC
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, TheINC said:

 

Traditionally when you get a big lead you lean on the run to eat the clock - especially when you have an elite D to hold the other team at bay.  Gameflow would dictate this is exactly the type of game that Howard should've flourished in. But gameflow in a Nagy offense has no true meaning or predictability.  Howard has been in positions to score all season, but instead of using Howard, Nagy has to prove he's smarter than everyone else.

Especially with a bye next week, maybe they wanted to give him more rest, who knows

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stop trying to spin a negative into a positive. Howard isn’t what we thought we drafted. He is a bruising back who did well in the old system ran by Jon Fox. Naggy isn’t big on Howard. He wants to air it out and use speed. This game was totally set up for a huge workload for Howard and we didn’t get it. If he can’t have a big game at home with a lead and the Bears scoring 40 points he will be hard to trust. He is still a start most weeks, but he is looking more like a low end RB2 with a low floor than what we were expecting, which was a borderline RB1/RB2. Doubt we see much change as the Bears are off to their best start in a while.

Edited by LionKid90
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol at the optimism after today's game. In 4 games they haven't tried to get Howard going. They pull him out and put Cohen in constantly and today was the Cohen show. We can't even say he's a victim of game script. This should have been his game to get 20+ carries in a blowout. It's not going to change anytime soon either because they haven't faced an offense that can challenge their defense. 

 

 

Howard is officially a bust because this offense is nothing like they were the past two seasons and even if Cohen were to get injured, they'd still find a way to fade Howard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mean they were saying Nagy wanted this to be a pass first offense, I just wasn't listening. I thought Trubisky wouldn't be good enough for that to happen and if Bears wanted to win Howard would have to be the center-piece of the offense. While 1 game doesn't mean Trubisky is the second coming, it does give Nagy confidence that his style can work and things aren't trending in the right direction. I own Howard in multiple leagues and will definitely shop him to see what I can get since it wasn't like he was killing it to begin with and if I have to worry about him being completely phased out some games that isn't worth it. 

 

I'm curious what caused the drastic shift? I recall him saying Howard needed the ball more a week or two ago and then basically out of the blue Cohen sees basically as many targets and carries as he has seen in the first 3 games combined. I may have understood if this happened after the BYE but its weird that such a drastic change happened in 1 week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

I mean they were saying Nagy wanted this to be a pass first offense, I just wasn't listening. I thought Trubisky wouldn't be good enough for that to happen and if Bears wanted to win Howard would have to be the center-piece of the offense. While 1 game doesn't mean Trubisky is the second coming, it does give Nagy confidence that his style can work and things aren't trending in the right direction. I own Howard in multiple leagues and will definitely shop him to see what I can get since it wasn't like he was killing it to begin with and if I have to worry about him being completely phased out some games that isn't worth it. 

 

I'm curious what caused the drastic shift? I recall him saying Howard needed the ball more a week or two ago and then basically out of the blue Cohen sees basically as many targets and carries as he has seen in the first 3 games combined. I may have understood if this happened after the BYE but its weird that such a drastic change happened in 1 week. 

 

The problem is trying to apply logic to Nagy's playcalling. His gimmicky calls cost him a win in week 1, and almost cost him the wins in week 2 and 3. I agree completely that this game, and Trubisky's performance, will give Nagy justification to continue to run what he's run - regardless of how terrible the TB defense has been all season -  which sadly for us Howard owners, means diminished returns and unreliable usage from game to game.  Nagy was running these trick plays with Hill last season in KC as the OC there, but there at least he had Reid reigning in his worst tendencies, in Chicago he's got full control and the results we've seen on the field now for 4 straight weeks.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Magnum Dopus said:

Is it possible it's injury related?

 

I read something about a knee injury(?)

 

But with him being used in garbage time I don't feel like it was an injury that held him back. Maybe Gameplan. To me he seemed slower than the other games. But idk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, LionKid90 said:

Stop trying to spin a negative into a positive. Howard isn’t what we thought we drafted. He is a bruising back who did well in the old system ran by Jon Fox. Naggy isn’t big on Howard. He wants to air it out and use speed. This game was totally set up for a huge workload for Howard and we didn’t get it. If he can’t have a big game at home with a lead and the Bears scoring 40 points he will be hard to trust. He is still a start most weeks, but he is looking more like a low end RB2 with a low floor than what we were expecting, which was a borderline RB1/RB2. Doubt we see much change as the Bears are off to their best start in a while.

this guy nailed it. really hard to trust Howard as anything more than a low end RB2 going forward. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

just read that he left the locker room without speaking.  I’m sure he’s as disappointed as we are in his usage

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

JAGtastic, guy just refuses to produce regardless of game flow/gamescript..

Howard is a good runner. Just not the right offense. I would pair him with someone and sell. Easy for me since I live in Chicago, but I think if you pair him with a Corey Davis type you might get a decent return. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Read some of Nagy's comments after the game- sounds like they were on a roll and instead of shutting it down with the run game when up big they wanted to stay 'aggressive' and just keep it rolling. Will be interesting to see what happens under a more 'normal' game script in future games. Certainty is very concerning about his his future usage. I mean at least when it's 1st and Goal at the 3 have him pound it in! Not 'hey let's put 2 QBs in the backfield and get an illegal shift penalty.' I almost threw my remote at the TV when that happened.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Horrible outing whichever way you spin it.  Feels like 2017 all over again.

 

Nagy was adamant about shutting up all the naysayers by showing Trubisky can lead that team but I don't think he is fooling anyone.  Who knows what Howard's usage will be - seems like they are more than happy playing match-ups with Howard/Cohen.  The only problem with doing this is that you're showing your hand.  When Howard is in, you're basically telling teams you're just going to run the ball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Meets1 said:

instead of shutting it down with the run game when up big they wanted to stay 'aggressive'

Must have learned from the Packers game. Makes sense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's funny how the Bears are playing great and just put up a bunch of points, but the coach is apparently an idiot because our Fantasy player didn't get points. What a bunch of cry babies.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, fourstar said:

It's funny how the Bears are playing great and just put up a bunch of points, but the coach is apparently an idiot because our Fantasy player didn't get points. What a bunch of cry babies.

 

They were averaging 16 PPG before yesterday and barely beat the Seahawks and Cardinals (who are arguably the worst team in the NFL). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't have the snap count numbers but I watched the whole game since I'm a Bears fan. Howard was on the field during 4 of the 6 TDs scored. 3 different times the Bears were inside the 5 but he only got 1 call at the GL and of course failed. Pretty much all his carries were in the late 3rd and 4th quarters when the Bucs knew the Bears were running.

 

On the 2nd TD in the 1st he was open and may have scored but Trubisky threw a great pass to Robinson.

 

Capture.JPG.9550cd1310093298e00912996d84292d.JPG

 

I think in weeks prior Mitch may have checked down to Howard in that situation. Clearly he's seeing the field better so that's great as a Bears fan.

 

One thing I noticed in this game compared to previous games is that the Bears threw more with Howard on the field and ran more when Cohen was in. Maybe Nagy saw that they had been a little predictable in weeks 1-3 (wishful thinking?).

 

As someone who was big on Howard this year the usage/production is definitely concerning. I think expectations should be tempered for sure. I went in thinking he'd be low-end RB1 with some upside in a high-scoring offense. I've settled on him being a mid RB2. Sky isn't falling, but I can't help but feel a little disappointed as someone who picked him at 22.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, fourstar said:

It's funny how the Bears are playing great and just put up a bunch of points, but the coach is apparently an idiot because our Fantasy player didn't get points. What a bunch of cry babies.

There’s two parts to football. Offense and defense. Nagy is supposed to be an offensive genius yet their defense dragged them to wins against terrible NFC West teams. If they didn’t have Mack they would be 1-3. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, fourstar said:

It's funny how the Bears are playing great and just put up a bunch of points, but the coach is apparently an idiot because our Fantasy player didn't get points. What a bunch of cry babies.

 

 

Chyeah!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, fourstar said:

It's funny how the Bears are playing great and just put up a bunch of points, but the coach is apparently an idiot because our Fantasy player didn't get points. What a bunch of cry babies.

First couple of weeks yes, he was an idiot. Yesterday he heavily outcoached the Bucs, and most of the concern I have been seeing this week is whether or not Howard fits this offense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, thefranchise3 said:

Don't have the snap count numbers...

 

 

33 snaps for howard

29 snaps for cohen

 

 

i dont know how this breaks down by quarter. but probably worth noting that howard had 8 of his 11 carries after the team had 45 points. cohen had 1 touch during that same stretch. i might be wrong, but my hunch is that cohen was dominating the snap count until late into the 3rd.

 

 

there's no fun way to put this, but howard's value just took a major hit. there will be a lot of tea leaves to read over the bye week but i'd be surprised if this was clearly howard's backfield going forward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.