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Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook


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15 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

We'll see. I don't trust Marvin right now to make a RB relevant. 

 

Now that’s a post length more down to my level lol.    Any comment on Mixons great end of season 2017?  He really got it rolling and comfortable 

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35 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Suck is a strong word.  If the o-line is improved I think things will be better for the run game this year.

 

I hope Mixon's ADP drops a bit because I will try to pick him up where I can.  I think he continues to get better and improve from last year. Lots of upside.

 

Suck is probably strong. Below average I'll go with.

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11 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Now that’s a post length more down to my level lol.    Any comment on Mixons great end of season 2017?  He really got it rolling and comfortable 

 

Last 4 Games:

 

26 Touches 165 Yards 1 TD

8 Touches 42 Yards 0 TDs

5 Touches 32 Yards 0 TDs

19 Touches 97 Yards 0 TDs 1 Fumble Lost

 

Is "great end to 2017" even a fair statement to make? Personally I don't think so. 

 

EDIT: second best game in that stretch is 7.7 Standard, 8.7 PPR, and in Week 17. 

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11 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Last 4 Games:

 

26 Touches 165 Yards 1 TD

8 Touches 42 Yards 0 TDs

5 Touches 32 Yards 0 TDs

19 Touches 97 Yards 0 TDs 1 Fumble Lost

 

Is "great end to 2017" even a fair statement to make? Personally I don't think so. 

 

EDIT: second best game in that stretch is 7.7 Standard, 8.7 PPR, and in Week 17. 

 

Well let’s put it this way-  he definitely showed improvement as evidenced by the ypc down the stretch.  I blame the line as much as mixons rookie inexperience.   Looks like a big improvement on that front, as well as Mixon being the bellcow from day one in OTAs.    He also caught 30/34 passes for almost 300 yards- so we’re probably overstating the effect of Gio squashing his receiving potential.   

 

I’m seeing a 20+ touch back with an improved line, established role, and immense talent.   This guy only fell in the draft because Of character concerns.   In the third I’m liking the risk.  It’s no more than any others in that range with massive upside. 

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Well let’s put it this way-  he definitely showed improvement as evidenced by the ypc down the stretch.  I blame the line as much as mixons rookie inexperience.   Looks like a big improvement on that front, as well as Mixon being the bellcow from day one in OTAs.   

 

Never was the conversation. I think the touch numbers are more indicative than the YPC numbers. He still hasn't seen a semblance of a role like you're suggesting he has. 

 

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 He also caught 30/34 passes for almost 300 yards- so we’re probably overstating the effect of Gio squashing his receiving potential.   

 

This is a borderline irrelevant point. Mixon doesn't decide when Mixon plays. Marvin decides when Mixon plays. I think, personally, based on what he's shown me as a coach, that this will still be a very split backfield. As I believe I said before, the signing/drafting of Mark Walton was distinct to me in saying they want to keep it at a multi-back system. Marvin's never ran a 1-back system that I can remember. 

 

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I’m seeing a 20+ touch back with an improved line, established role, and immense talent.   This guy only fell in the draft because Of character concerns.   In the third I’m liking the risk.  It’s no more than any others in that range with massive upside. 

 

Role hasn't been established though. The lack of role has been established. You can't argue that he established a 20+ touch role last year when two of the last four games of the season he had under 10 touches. He hasn't nor has any other Bengals RB I can remember had a role like that in quite some time. This is a multi-back system IMO, and I don't have enough confidence that they change from that and accurately call plays. 

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34 minutes ago, taobball said:

Mixon doesn't decide when Mixon plays. Marvin decides when Mixon plays. I think, personally, based on what he's shown me as a coach, that this will still be a very split backfield. As I believe I said before, the signing/drafting of Mark Walton was distinct to me in saying they want to keep it at a multi-back system. Marvin's never ran a 1-back system that I can remember. 

Lewis has also been known to not let rookies see the field very much.  This could mean a huge jump in snaps for Mixon in his 2nd season.

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26 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Lewis has also been known to not let rookies see the field very much.  This could mean a huge jump in snaps for Mixon in his 2nd season.

 

Not necessarily. You have to be accurate in believing that the only reason he was held back at the end of the season was that he was a rookie. Personally I don’t believe Marvin Lewis runs a very fantasy friendly system for a back being a Bellcow.

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49 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Never was the conversation. I think the touch numbers are more indicative than the YPC numbers. He still hasn't seen a semblance of a role like you're suggesting he has. 

 

 

This is a borderline irrelevant point. Mixon doesn't decide when Mixon plays. Marvin decides when Mixon plays. I think, personally, based on what he's shown me as a coach, that this will still be a very split backfield. As I believe I said before, the signing/drafting of Mark Walton was distinct to me in saying they want to keep it at a multi-back system. Marvin's never ran a 1-back system that I can remember. 

 

 

Role hasn't been established though. The lack of role has been established. You can't argue that he established a 20+ touch role last year when two of the last four games of the season he had under 10 touches. He hasn't nor has any other Bengals RB I can remember had a role like that in quite some time. This is a multi-back system IMO, and I don't have enough confidence that they change from that and accurately call plays. 

 

I’m not looking for an extended debate on the merits of one stat vs another.    You’re welcome to value whichever you please.   But you’re missing the forest for the trees.   Mixon is their guy.   Marvin knows how to put rookies in their place until they earn it.    Walton in the fourth was a fantastic value pick at a position they needed depth at.  Just a backup nothing more.  

 

Gio will have his role, but Mixon caught 88% of his passes out of the backfield (30/34/289/4) which tells us he’s proficient.   They’ll use him there too.  He presents a better threat to run the ball than Gio does, and can catch.  

 

  3 of the final 5 games Mixon recorded 19+ touches- so 20 seems like a reasonable number if Cincy isnt getting hog tied by the third quarter.    That’s where Gio gets his bump in value.  There will def be some games like this.

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Lewis has fed guys in the past.  Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson, BJGE are examples of that.  They were also roughly about 80-90 rush attempts less than their average over the previous 5 years.  If they can get back up to their average, that's significantly more carries to go around.  

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53 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Lewis has also been known to not let rookies see the field very much.  This could mean a huge jump in snaps for Mixon in his 2nd season.

Gio had 230 touches as a rookie.

Jeremy Hill had 250 touches as a rookie. 

 

Neither saw a noticable increase at any point in their careers from the rookie season. 

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3 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Gio had 230 touches as a rookie.

Jeremy Hill had 250 touches as a rookie. 

 

Neither saw a noticable increase at any point in their careers from the rookie season. 

 

Which one of those is the 3 down back?  

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24 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Gio has 3 seasons of 150+ carries, and a career 4.2 YPC.

 

Hes not JUST a 3rd down RB. 

That’s pretty typical for a part time COP back.   The bangers do the heavy lifting and Gio plays a lot of garbage/desperation/3rd down time.   Soft defenses.

 

  I’m not denying he can do in a pinch- but then he breaks down from workload.   In general, the Cincy backs have been limited in talent of late.  Which caps their upside.   

 

 

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

I’m not looking for an extended debate on the merits of one stat vs another.    You’re welcome to value whichever you please.   But you’re missing the forest for the trees.   Mixon is their guy.   Marvin knows how to put rookies in their place until they earn it.    Walton in the fourth was a fantastic value pick at a position they needed depth at.  Just a backup nothing more.  

 

Gio will have his role, but Mixon caught 88% of his passes out of the backfield (30/34/289/4) which tells us he’s proficient.   They’ll use him there too.  He presents a better threat to run the ball than Gio does, and can catch.  

 

  3 of the final 5 games Mixon recorded 19+ touches- so 20 seems like a reasonable number if Cincy isnt getting hog tied by the third quarter.    That’s where Gio gets his bump in value.  There will def be some games like this.

 

I’m not missing the Forrest through the trees. I simply believe that poor coaching can hold down talented players. I think Coaching will hurt him per play, and I also think that he will see fewer snaps because I do believe Marvin still wants to rotate even if he has an “A” and “B” back.

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2 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Gio had 230 touches as a rookie.

Jeremy Hill had 250 touches as a rookie. 

 

Neither saw a noticable increase at any point in their careers from the rookie season. 

Lewis wouldn't even concede carries to Gio from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who at the time was averaging 3.4 ypc.

 

Hill just plain sucks, why should he get more carries?

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Lewis wouldn't even concede carries to Gio from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who at the time was averaging 3.4 ypc.

 

Hill just plain sucks, why should he get more carries?

I think he was responding to your post that Lewis generally limits rookie touches/PT.

 

Gio is really good and much better than most teams COP backs.  As long as Cincy sucks and are trailing most games (still likely), Gio's touches will not go down. 

 

Also, Mixon hasn't proven anything at the pro level that would suggest he should be written in for full time carries.

 

The situation is similar to last year only that the price has gone up two rounds because he is now the "starter" and should do better?  Seems like you nearly have to pay for the upside at round 3 prices.  Pass.

 

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11 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Lewis wouldn't even concede carries to Gio from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who at the time was averaging 3.4 ypc.

 

Hill just plain sucks, why should he get more carries?

That's not the point. I was simply showing you that Lewis does indeed let rookie RBs play. 

 

Both of his last 2 rookie RBs saw a similar workload in year 1 as they did in subsequent years. 

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Mixon's ypc last year was borderline trash. I would have to watch some tape to see whether it was truly his fault or not but the stats are certainly there to build an argument against him. However, with the addition of Glenn and Price you have to think the line sees improved play and should bring those numbers up. He has also shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield meaning he can stay on the field for more plays. I think in the end, talent wins in this one and he ends up being a rb2 and Gio is playing a reduced role. 

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48 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

That's not the point. I was simply showing you that Lewis does indeed let rookie RBs play. 

 

Both of his last 2 rookie RBs saw a similar workload in year 1 as they did in subsequent years. 

How is that not the point?

 

Gio's rookie season his touches were limited even though he was outperforming his competitor.

 

Gio - 170 carries, 4.1 ypc

Green-Ellis - 220 carries, 3.4 ypc

 

In Jeremy Hill's ridiculously productive rookie season he still got less carries than in his 2nd season(albeit by 1 carry), even though as a rookie he averaged 5.1 ypc.  His 2nd season he averaged 3.6 ypc.

 

I didn't say rookie's don't play, I said they've been limited regardless of the circumstances.  John Ross got benched after one fumble and we never heard from him again.

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6 minutes ago, Ravioli27 said:

Mixon's ypc last year was borderline trash. I would have to watch some tape to see whether it was truly his fault or not but the stats are certainly there to build an argument against him. However, with the addition of Glenn and Price you have to think the line sees improved play and should bring those numbers up. He has also shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield meaning he can stay on the field for more plays. I think in the end, talent wins in this one and he ends up being a rb2 and Gio is playing a reduced role. 

Gio is actually healthier this year than he was this time last year

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1 minute ago, Ravioli27 said:

I didn't say anything about Gio's health. I meant Mixon is a more talented all around back and should get more touches. 

I thought it was implied that Gio's role would be decreased as a result. Given that Gio's health is better, there is little reason to think Mixon can reduce his role anymore than last year.

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2 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I thought it was implied that Gio's role would be decreased as a result. Given that Gio's health is better, there is little reason to think Mixon can reduce his role anymore than last year.

 

You mean aside from being significantly more talented?

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

That small detail?  Nah...  

Gio is a proven playmaker.  He may not be a feature back, but it's debatable to say Mixon is significantly more talented.  

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