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Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Nobody thought the PIT OL going into 2014 was great. The premise of Haley's short passing was to offset Ben from getting killed bc that OL couldn't consistently protect him on 5 and 7-step drops.

We’re not comparing the 2013 OL. There after all is a reason for Bell’s production on the ground, and #12 finish.

 

The point is the Bengals look like they have a bottom 5 OL this year.  Where is Mixon getting his upside to justify the early pick?  If Mixon’s upside isn’t an RB1 why bother reaching for him.

 

If you believe the Bengals have an average OL, then he’s probably worth a 2rd/3rd round pick.  That’s not what I’ve and others arguing against Mixon have seen.

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1 hour ago, thirdeye said:

 

In the 3rd? I drafted a week ago and he actually went at the 2/3 turn. PPR league.

 

 

Actually got him in the 4th (33rd overall), 0.5 PPR.  I guess my leaguemates read Rotoworld forums because nobody wanted him. RBs taken ahead of him in Rd 3 were Howard, McCoy & McKinnon, but most people took WRs. The top 3 TEs also went, and Rodgers went the pick right before I took him.  

 

Not sure if his ADP is adjusting, but purely from an observational standpoint (all the mocks I’ve done), people seem to be souring on him.

 

I’m not that high on him, but when he tumbled that far I had to pull the trigger.

Edited by SkinsChargersFan

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OL still sub par.  Will hurt his YPC.

 

And I'm convinced that Lazor will be pass happy.

 

280 carries?  Maybe unattainable.  260 would be 16.3 per game, that seems even hopeful at this point.  1050 yards at 4YPC.  

 

But give this man 60 receptions, just under 4 a game.  He seems to get at least one target per drive, and Lazor IS known to involve RBs in the pass game.  Could get up to 500 receiving yards if they unleash him.  Still think he breaks 200 points and is a low end RB1 this year.

 

Gio is a COP and "3rd and long" back.  That's fine.

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Their O-Line looked just fine yesterday and their offense is really clicking.

 

The amount of hate Cincy gets is weird and petty. 

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6 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

Their O-Line looked just fine yesterday and their offense is really clicking.

 

The amount of hate Cincy gets is weird and petty. 

 

If the oline was fine then why did Mixon average less than 2 ypc? 

 

Pass blocking was good but the run blocking was horrendous. 

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Hope Mixon does well this season.  I drafted Saquon Barkley with the 4th overall pick and then grabbed Mixon with the 9th pick in the 2nd round in a 12 team league.

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6 minutes ago, nimzox said:

Hope Mixon does well this season.  I drafted Saquon Barkley with the 4th overall pick and then grabbed Mixon with the 9th pick in the 2nd round in a 12 team league.

 

Cool story bro

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16 hours ago, seanismorris said:

We’re not comparing the 2013 OL. There after all is a reason for Bell’s production on the ground, and #12 finish.

 

The point is the Bengals look like they have a bottom 5 OL this year.  Where is Mixon getting his upside to justify the early pick?  If Mixon’s upside isn’t an RB1 why bother reaching for him.

 

If you believe the Bengals have an average OL, then he’s probably worth a 2rd/3rd round pick.  That’s not what I’ve and others arguing against Mixon have seen.

 

CIN does not have a bottom-5 OL this year. This is 2018, not 2017.

 

BUF, HOU, NYJ, MIA, SEA, DEN, ARI, TB, CAR are all worse.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

CIN does not have a bottom-5 OL this year. This is 2018, not 2017.

 

BUF, HOU, NYJ, MIA, SEA, DEN, ARI, TB, CAR are all worse.

Exactly.  Like I said earlier the Bengals have, at worst, an average OL this season.  

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36 minutes ago, machine3 said:

It was encouraging that Dalton actually looked good yesterday. 

 

This whole offense is going to get back on track this season. A legitimate deep threat (Ross), a revamped OLine, a healthy AJ Green, a real Offensive Coordinator, etc.

 

A lot of things went wrong for the Bengals last year, and none of them were particularly Mixon’s fault.

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8 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

This whole offense is going to get back on track this season. A legitimate deep threat (Ross), a revamped OLine, a healthy AJ Green, a real Offensive Coordinator, etc.

 

A lot of things went wrong for the Bengals last year, and none of them were particularly Mixon’s fault.

Ross usually can't stay healthy. 

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11 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

Ross usually can't stay healthy. 

 

Everyone’s healthy until they’re not

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19 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

Everyone’s healthy until they’re not

Wow!  That just blew my mind!!

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If you are expecting him to put up massive rushing totals, you are going to be disappointed because I don't think the O-line is going to allow it (although it will be better).  

 

If you are expecting 900-1100 rushing yards, 40-50 receptions, 300-500 receiving yards and 6-8  total TD's I think you will be ok. I actually think he has a high floor because of his opportunity.  His talent makes him that much more tantalising. The only thing in his road to RB1 status is the O-line.  

 

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11 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

If you are expecting him to put up massive rushing totals, you are going to be disappointed because I don't think the O-line is going to allow it (although it will be better).  

 

If you are expecting 900-1100 rushing yards, 40-50 receptions, 300-500 receiving yards and 6-8  total TD's I think you will be ok. I actually think he has a high floor because of his opportunity.  His talent makes him that much more tantalising. The only thing in his road to RB1 status is the O-line.  

 

In ppr is he ranked higher because of his pass catching ability?

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8 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

In ppr is he ranked higher because of his pass catching ability?

Correct. 

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Offensive lines--especially when it comes to run blocking--often take awhile to gel.  I'm not particularly concerned by the Bengals somewhat poor run blocking in the preseason.  

 

On the other hand, I'm heartened by Mixon's use in the passing game and what looks like it could be a much better offense this year.

 

IMO the biggest concern with Mixon is his decision making and feel for the game.  He's patient and can pick through gaps, but on stretch runs he often misses cutback lanes because of that patience.  He has a formidable jump cut and great footwork in the backfield, but counter-intuitively hasn't been great at creating in space.  His instincts just aren't quite yet commensurate with his athleticism.

 

Decision making and game feel are often problems for rookies.  If he improves in those areas, I think he'll be a top 8 back.

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On 8/27/2018 at 7:27 PM, gbill2004 said:

Correct. 

where is he ranked in terms of ppr. before or after howard to the majority of the "experts". that seems to be the decision for a lot.. in the 2nd 3rd round bend

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^He's more valuable in ppr than in standard...

Edited by RMJ_12

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

^He's more valuable in ppr than in standard...

I agree in ppr he will have a solid season

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The one thing I'm least sure about is Mixon's rushing volume.  We saw watching preseason that they'll line him out wide, line up up in the slot, throw to him out of the backfield, and Lazor has a history of throwing to running backs.  I've no doubts this guy is looking at some tantalizing passing game usage, which we know is a requirement to be a high end RB1 unless you're getting 23 carries a game like Zeke and Fournette.

 

So let's look at rushing volume, his question mark.

 

Cincinnati ran 23.6 rushes per game last year, 29th out of 32.

League average is 27.2 rush attempts per game.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-attempts-per-game

 

Say the Bengals run 25 times a game this year.  And say that because basic positive regression in overall play volume, and from an improved OL.

 

Gio gets 10 per game on a good season.  He had 6.5 per game last year, for the record.  

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/players/13031/Giovani_Bernard

 

Joe Mixon is looking at 15-18 rushes per game.

240 - 290 on the season.

250 rushes at 4.0 YPC and he's a 1k yard rusher.

 

Now how about 400+ rec yards to go with that?

 

Don't see a path to high end RB1 unless he gets 280 rushes and 12 TDs.  Those aren't out of the question, but 1400 total yards and 8 TDs for a low end RB1 finish looks likely barring injury.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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Huge fan of Mixon’s ability, but I am concerned. Same coaching staff as last year, so why are things going to magically change this season?

 

Maybe the OL is a little better, John Ross should help stretch the defense, if I’m just trying to find optimism. It can’t be any worse than last year, and they ran the least amount of offensive plays in the NFL I believe. If he stays healthy, he should be an RB2 just based off volume alone. The last two preseason games looked exactly like last year though. Hopefully Mixon is improved too. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. 

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