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Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook

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12 minutes ago, Steve French said:

I had a similar procedure done back when I used to play soccer. I had a small piece of cartilage floating around in my knee that was bothering me. I remember after the scope and removal was done, I was back on the field in just over 3 weeks. At the time I was in my early 30's, so I could see the possibility of Mixon just sitting out a couple games

Nice. 

 

Hopefully they dont pop any zits on Mixon’s knee during surgery to avoid setbacks.

Edited by hangin n wangin

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

I own both but I have to disagree. Bernard should be a serviceable RB2 until Mixon returns but he just doesnt have Mixon's upside. Plus I could it being closer to a 50-50 split when Mixon comes back.

Oh he doesn't have Mixon's upside, no question about that, but realistically there are VERY few handcuffs who can produce the same numbers as the guy in front of them. Whoever backs up Le'Veon from year to year seems to be one of the few exceptions.

 

46 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Because cuffing your own RB's is the low upside, scared, playing-to-not-lose, mentality. Early in the season you really want to cuff the best possible handcuffs for other owner's RB's, so that when one of them hits you're gaining an edge and coming out ahead, rather than just treading water with a mediocre handcuff like Gio.

 

But if your goal is just to simply eek into the playoffs, then sure, go ahead and and draft the handcuff for guys you own like Mixon. 

Depends on who they are. I get what you're saying, not all cuffs are created equal, but in this case Gio is a very clear handcuff. We know he'll produce top 15 RB numbers. There just aren't that many cuffs who offer more upside (who wouldn't already be owned).

 

41 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Ya, and exactly the same thing can happen when you roster your own handcuffs, but you dont gain any upside whatsoever. Like I said, playing it safe, vs playing to win.

If I roster my opponents' handcuffs, his star goes down, I likely have to make a trade (which as we know are tough in most leagues) to maximize the return. If I roster my handcuff and my guy goes down I'm still in good shape.

 

35 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

That could be said for any handcuff even if it's your handcuff.  I'd rather have drafted James Conner in the late rounds than Gio any day even though I owned Mixon (which by the way is exactly what happened).  I mean if you're going to draft guys who are unlikely to play unless there's any injury or in Conner's case a holdout, you might as well have the guys who will be star players instead of someone who has proven to be very mediocre over their career. 

I'd take (and did take) Conner all day long over Gio, no question there. And that's whether I own Mixon or not. But if I own guys with clear handcuffs I think you're playing a very risky game if you don't draft them. And we've gotta talk ceteris paribus here, meaning guys I could've drafted in the same rounds. So not a cuff like Tevin Coleman or Dion Lewis. Outside of Conner there are very few cuffs I'd rather have than Gio if I owned Mixon.

Edited by BGDDYKWL

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1 minute ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I'd take (and did take) Conner all day long over Gio, no question there. And that's whether I own Mixon or not. But if I own guys with clear handcuffs I think you're playing a very risky game if you don't draft them. And we've gotta talk ceteris paribus here, meaning guys I could've drafted in the same rounds. So not a cuff like Tevin Coleman or Dion Lewis. Outside of Conner there are very few cuffs I'd rather have than Gio if I owned Mixon.

I can see it depending on the size of the league and roster size.  If you're in a 12 team league with 16 roster spots I would probably do it, but in a 10 man league with 16 spots drafting 2 qb's, 1 te, 1k, 1 d, that leaves you with 11 spots to fill.  I can usually find guys that I think have much higher upside than a handcuff like Gio.  For instance I grabbed John Brown and James Conner in the later rounds of one of my leagues instead of Gio the handcuff.  The rest of my roster is filled out with solid no brainer decisions over Gio. 

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Anyone thinking Mixon is just gonna roll back into town in 2-3 weeks and back to 20-25 touches is naive, dumb, or tipsy 

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3 minutes ago, rotodr said:

Anyone thinking Mixon is just gonna roll back into town in 2-3 weeks and back to 20-25 touches is naive, dumb, or tipsy 

Why? Seems like a really minor procedure. No  ligament or cartilage injurys

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3 minutes ago, TTRA1N said:

Why? Seems like a really minor procedure. No  ligament or cartilage injurys

 

Best case scenario is 2-4 weeks. BEST CASE. With their bye on Week 9. He could be limited for a WHILE.

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28 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

I can see it depending on the size of the league and roster size.  If you're in a 12 team league with 16 roster spots I would probably do it, but in a 10 man league with 16 spots drafting 2 qb's, 1 te, 1k, 1 d, that leaves you with 11 spots to fill.  I can usually find guys that I think have much higher upside than a handcuff like Gio.  For instance I grabbed John Brown and James Conner in the later rounds of one of my leagues instead of Gio the handcuff.  The rest of my roster is filled out with solid no brainer decisions over Gio. 

Conner was a no-brainer IMO and I actually reached for him very early (all things considered). After seeing what DWill did two years ago and the way Tomlin uses his RBs, I think it was safe to assume we'd have a RB1 if Bell decided to hold out. John Brown on the other hand is a good example of what I'm referring to. He's likely not a guy you'll ever start, it's highly unlikely his upside is higher than his best year with a better QB and more pass-happy coach, and his average in his three healthier years was around 50, 750, and 5. Sorry but I'd MUCH rather insure my RB2 than have Brown on my bench every week.

Edited by BGDDYKWL
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23 minutes ago, rotodr said:

Anyone thinking Mixon is just gonna roll back into town in 2-3 weeks and back to 20-25 touches is naive, dumb, or tipsy 

 

We’ll see. Cincy’s offense looks completely different with him out there compared to Gio

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11 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Conner was a no-brainer IMO and I actually reached for him very early (all things considered). After seeing what DWill did two years ago and the way Tomlin uses his RBs, I think it was safe to assume we'd have a RB1 if Bell decided to hold out. John Brown on the other hand is a good example of what I'm referring to. He's likely not a guy you'll ever start, it's highly unlikely his upside is higher than his best year with a better QB and more pass-happy coach, and his average in his three healthier years was around 50, 750, and 5. Sorry but I'd MUCH rather insure my RB2 than have Brown on my bench every week.

well, it seems you're missing the boat on Johnny Brown.  he's no 50-750-5 guy this year.  He has HUGE potential on his new team on a new offense with a team that passes a lot and a QB that has done nothing but praise him since he showed up for camp.  He's already scored twice and came close 2 other times.  But.....we are taking this thread off track.  Mixon is a stud!  Bummer about his injury, but at least it's nothing too serious.   I'm not expecting much from Gio in his absence.   Low end RB2 at best.  

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Who are other players that have undergone the same procedure and how long were they out for?

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It seems like the bums in fantasy rarely get hurt.

 

Maybe they don't play enough to get hurt.

 

Or maybe they do and we don't pay attention.

 

God bless fantasy football.

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

Because cuffing your own RB's is the low upside, scared, playing-to-not-lose, mentality. Early in the season you really want to cuff the best possible handcuffs for other owner's RB's, so that when one of them hits you're gaining an edge and coming out ahead, rather than just treading water with a mediocre handcuff like Gio.

 

But if your goal is just to simply eek into the playoffs, then sure, go ahead and and draft the handcuff for guys you own like Mixon. 

Who are all these higher upside cuffs you are talking about? John Kelly, Spencer Ware, Donta Freeman?  I can't think anyone else that has a good argument vs GIo's upside as a starter.

 

Most of the other high upside dudes were drafted before Gio. So cuffing Gio didn't prevent you from grabbing them earlier if you wanted. 

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You guys can go back and forth guessing till your blue in the face. The real answer is no one really knows until they go in with the scope and see whats really going on. Hopefully it is 2 weeks. But thats a best case scenario. Either way better than an ACL or Leveon Bell. He will probably hold out 10 weeks. Even if it is 4 weeks. Again its better than an ACL. He will have fresh legs the rest of the season.

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2 hours ago, cs3 said:

Because cuffing your own RB's is the low upside, scared, playing-to-not-lose, mentality. Early in the season you really want to cuff the best possible handcuffs for other owner's RB's, so that when one of them hits you're gaining an edge and coming out ahead, rather than just treading water with a mediocre handcuff like Gio.

 

But if your goal is just to simply eek into the playoffs, then sure, go ahead and and draft the handcuff for guys you own like Mixon. 

 

Let's say you had Le'Veon Bell in 2015. According to you, a Bell owner should have drafted a player like Knile Davis (the presumed cuff to Jamaal Charles) and not DeAngelo Williams. It's obvious which approach worked better...

 

Your theory may work in rare cases (who would fit that description in 2017?) but, as savvy owners know, few RBs play all 16 games. If you cuff you have a player you likely will start at some point. If you drafted McFadden, whoever DJ's presumed backup was, Bell's backup, Coleman, Tolbert, or Derrick Henry to have high upside cuffs for other team's players you didn't get much, outside of two random starts from Coleman around midseason. You just wasted a roster spot while leaving yourself exposed if your RB1 got hurt (assuming he had a clear cuff).

 

 

 

Edited by Ace_King
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And Gio, while talented, is clearly not ready for featured back workload.  I see him getting about 15 touches, and he's not enough of a talent to expect big damage from that kind of use.  I'll be surprised if he actually produces RB2 numbers.  

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42 minutes ago, Chardo said:

And Gio, while talented, is clearly not ready for featured back workload.  I see him getting about 15 touches, and he's not enough of a talent to expect big damage from that kind of use.  I'll be surprised if he actually produces RB2 numbers.  

well, each of his first 3 years in the league, he finished in the top 25 fantasy points for running backs. Those 3 years he was the change-of-pace back. You figure there's 10 or 12 teams in a fantasy league, each team has 2 RB slots and a flex. Gio has finished years as a decent RB2 before

Edited by Chippa
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Gio def will get you RB3/Low RB2 numbers in fantasy. Great flex play but that offense will stink. This news makes no sense, Mixon was just jumping up and down  on his last play and now he probably will  be a headache to own ROS.  I need  a drink! 

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3 hours ago, cs3 said:

Because cuffing your own RB's is the low upside, scared, playing-to-not-lose, mentality. Early in the season you really want to cuff the best possible handcuffs for other owner's RB's, so that when one of them hits you're gaining an edge and coming out ahead, rather than just treading water with a mediocre handcuff like Gio.

 

But if your goal is just to simply eek into the playoffs, then sure, go ahead and and draft the handcuff for guys you own like Mixon. 

 

How is it low upside to cuff your own RBs especially if the RBs are tied to a decent offense and its a fluid situation? (Mixon-Bernard, Cook-Murray, CMC-CJA)

 

Bernard is a RB2 in standard could be a top 15 RB in PPR. Hardly a mediocre handcuff. 

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1 hour ago, TommyKramer said:

 I'm not expecting much from Gio in his absence.   Low end RB2 at best.  

 

1 hour ago, Chardo said:

And Gio, while talented, is clearly not ready for featured back workload.  I see him getting about 15 touches, and he's not enough of a talent to expect big damage from that kind of use.  I'll be surprised if he actually produces RB2 numbers.  

 

12 minutes ago, HurryupO said:

Gio def will get you RB3/Low RB2 numbers in fantasy. Great flex play but that offense will stink. This news makes no sense, Mixon was just jumping up and down  on his last play and now he probably will  be a headache to own ROS.  I need  a drink! 

 

Really don't get people downplaying Gio so much and calling him a RB3 without Mixon.

 

2017 Games w/ Over 10 Carries

13/77, 2/19

11/62, 6/68

14/30/1, 3/13

23/116/1, 7/52

10/52, 6/18

 

Looks like a high end RB2 to me and the offense is better this year.

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9 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

How is it low upside to cuff your own RBs especially if the RBs are tied to a decent offense and its a fluid situation? (Mixon-Bernard, Cook-Murray, CMC-CJA)

 

Bernard is a RB2 in standard could be a top 15 RB in PPR. Hardly a mediocre handcuff. 

 

Look at what Murray did last year after Cook went down. That sure beat a Cook owner drafting the cuff to other top RBs.

 

Agree on Bernard. He has shown he can produce when he has been thrust into a lead role in the past.

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14 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Let's all point and laugh. 

Didn't rb number 28 sucker puncher only get around 80 yards and a knee scope?, yuck

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins

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3 hours ago, cs3 said:

Ya, and exactly the same thing can happen when you roster your own handcuffs, but you dont gain any upside whatsoever. Like I said, playing it safe, vs playing to win.

 

You should always handcuff your own RB if you believe in that team's ability to run the ball.  "going for upside" (by stashing someone else's handcuff) is actually a weaker play in my opinion.   A handcuff is insurance in a running game you believe in.   Someone else's handcuff is just buying a lottery ticket. Yep, it works out sometimes... But if YOUR guy goes down and you don't have the handcuff, that could be the end of your season.  Whoever drafted Le'veon that didn't draft Conner is an idiot IMO.  That's just dumb.  And that scenario, in my opinion, 10000% PROVES that handcuffing top RB's is the smart play.  Now.... is Mixon the kind of guy worth handcuffing?  That's debatable.   But the idea that it's "playing scared" when you handcuff a top RB who (1) is on a team that can run the ball and (2) has a clear backup is just silly.  

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Better off drafting a Barber, Adrian Peterson, or any of the GB backs than handcuffing Mixon. And Mixon's injury is only for several weeks assuming there are no setbacks.

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