fakespike

Keelan Cole 2018 Outlook

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13 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I don't see why it's that hard to believe. Marqise Lee had 56/702/3 last year in the same offense and only recorded a catch in 12 games. You expand that to 16 and you have 75/936/4. And I would argue Keelan Cole is more talented than Marqise Lee.

 

The fact of the matter is that no Jaguars WR was fantasy relevant from Weeks 1-17 last year. But if Marqise Lee was healthy all of last year he wouldn'thave finished too far from a WR2, so i don't think it's that hard to believe Keelan Cole ends up a WR2. Blake Bortles had plenty of Passing Volume last year, regardless of the defense. 

 

I'm not even going to get into a debate about extrapolating one players numbers as if he played a full 16 weeks and then applying those numbers to a completely different player. 

 

7 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

He was the real deal LONG before this week.

 

Sure, and again I didn't see anything particularly special in his 2017 performances. He was running wide open in the gaps in zone defenses and would beat people long. Neither of those things are things dozens of other NFL WRs can't do as well. Cole's ball skills looked excellent yesterday which is why I'm more willing to get on the bandwagon. However, we've seen WRs on this exact team flash for several weeks with high end production then fizzle.

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1 minute ago, munde53 said:

 

I'm not even going to get into a debate about extrapolating one players numbers as if he played a full 16 weeks and then applying those numbers to a completely different player. 

 

Even when they're on the same team, same offense, have the same QB, and is a mathematical model based on how many Passing Yards the Jags had last year instead of you just completely being dismissive for reasons that are unclear other than... "well that's what I think."
 

You keep dismissing things that don't fit what you want :lol:

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7 minutes ago, munde53 said:

 

I'm not even going to get into a debate about extrapolating one players numbers as if he played a full 16 weeks and then applying those numbers to a completely different player. 

 

Cole's ball skills looked excellent yesterday which is why I'm more willing to get on the bandwagon. However, we've seen WRs on this exact team flash for several weeks with high end production then fizzle.

 

See now you are extrapolating one players performance with others :)

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Even when they're on the same team, same offense, have the same QB, and is a mathematical model based on how many Passing Yards the Jags had last year instead of you just completely being dismissive for reasons that are unclear other than... "well that's what I think."
 

You keep dismissing things that don't fit what you want :lol:

Because different players play differently and mathematics/stat mining doesn't apply perfectly to NFL production.

 

If that was the case Sammy Watkins would have had 100+ targets in LA last year, Jordy Nelson would be soaking up RZ targets in Oakland, and CJ Anderson would be the short yardage back in Carolina. Brandin Cooks was also supposed to step into the "Sammy Watkins" role in LA thus leaving him as an after thought for fantasy with the exception of a few blow up weeks. That just shows again how applying what a specific player performed in a given offense to a completely different playing isn't accurate.

 

Saying "this player did ____ in ____ offense last year, therefore ____ new player will do the same or better" again, just isn't accurate.

 

 

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if you take lee's arms and extrapolate them out using the laws of bodily transference, you get cole's arms. which are long enough to be a wr1.

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7 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

See now you are extrapolating one players performance with others :)

Not at all?

 

I'm saying that the Jags have only two fantasy relevant receivers prior to this year (both in 2015) since Bortles has been the starting QB because of how inefficient he is. Given how the Jags offense has developed around the run game and how inefficient Bortles is I'm still very doubtful about week to week consistency. 

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Maybe I am contradicting myself a bit, but what I'm trying to say is that I don't believe in Bortles or how much the Jags threw the ball yesterday. Because of this I don't think Cole will be an every week WR2 but he will be a WR3 with solid upside. 

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26 minutes ago, munde53 said:

 

I'm not even going to get into a debate about extrapolating one players numbers as if he played a full 16 weeks and then applying those numbers to a completely different player. 

 

 

Sure, and again I didn't see anything particularly special in his 2017 performances. He was running wide open in the gaps in zone defenses and would beat people long. Neither of those things are things dozens of other NFL WRs can't do as well. Cole's ball skills looked excellent yesterday which is why I'm more willing to get on the bandwagon. However, we've seen WRs on this exact team flash for several weeks with high end production then fizzle.

If you wait too long you'll miss out. Have to get ahead of the storm unless you blow most of your FAAB or #1 waiver

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Just now, munde53 said:

Because different players play differently and mathematics/stat mining doesn't apply perfectly to NFL production.

 

 

 

 

 

Who said anything about applying perfectly to production? Who said anything about using Lee's stats even as a baseline. 

 

Your argument was that it was hard to see how Cole would consistently produce in this offense. My argument was that a far less talented WR did it last year, that 3,687 Passing Yards for an offense isn't actually that few, and that there are actually very few data points that suggest that the Jags won't have a consistently WR1 for their team throughout this year. They did all last year until Lee went down. Cole is more talented than Lee. 

 

This is your thesis:

 

Quote

I don't see Bortles throwing the ball over 40 times very many weeks in this offense (he only did so twice last year in 19 games) which is why I don't think Cole, or any Jags receiver, will be consistent from week to week.

 

I agree he won't throw 40 times a week. But he was 11th in the NFL last year in Passing Yardage playing for a historic and historically healthy defense with a great RB who looks like he's going to be as hurt or more-so throughout this year as last.

 

Your argument is that hte volume won't sustain consistency. My argument is that the same volume sustained a less-talented Receivers consistency throughout all of 2017 when that player was healthy, and that projecting a QB who is coming off a 3,700 Yard season where he was 11th in Pass Yards to NOT have the volume to produce a WR2 really isn't all that statistically defensible.

 

If you wanna argue Bortles throws for less than 3600, be my guest. But last year as a QB who targets WR over TE and HB seemingly, I'll take Bortles to have a WR2 this year. I've said it all offseason that I think the Jags #1 WR will be a mid-range WR3 at worse. Cole is showing greater talent to improve the projection. 

 

SO again, if you want to make me the argument that you want to make that this Jags passing attafck can't sustain a WR2 despite doing so for most of last year and having the 11th most passing yards for QB last year, be my guest. 

 

WR23 for Lee from Week 2 to Week 14.

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9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I don't get your question, to be honest. If you say it's hard to trust them, aren't you in fact concerned about their floor?

 

I think realistically Cole last season was a 5/50 guy with upside. He is more of a focal point of the office, so this year he should be most weeks between 50-90 yards (on 6-10 targets), but if he catches everything thrown his way (as he did on Sunday), the sky is the limit, of course. But if they only feed him 4 targets like last week, then you're going to be very disappointed. That's part of the deal with a young receiver.

My bad, I am concerned about his floor but its def a hold. Like him for a potential top 15 season.

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the arguments in here are really bad.. like what?

 

wr3 with wr2 upside ROS.. what's so hard?  this is money ball, stop being emotional

Edited by MNadel

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15 hours ago, MNadel said:

the arguments in here are really bad.. like what?

 

wr3 with wr2 upside ROS.. what's so hard?  this is money ball, stop being emotional

How is he WR2 upside when he cracked WR1 in week 2? (#7 WR)

 

 

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On 9/18/2018 at 12:22 PM, bhawks489 said:

How is he WR2 upside when he cracked WR1 in week 2? (#7 WR)

 

 

 

That's not how it works. Tavon Austin was an RB1 (# 12) this weekend, but does he have RB1 upside ROS?

 

 Cole has an average/below average QB and is in a WR committee. Dede is almost as good, and Moncrief is getting a lot of looks. Plus they have the best defense, so game script isn't usually demanding passes. I think WR2 upside is fair.

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2 minutes ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

That's not how it works. Tavon Austin was an RB1 (# 12) this weekend, but does he have RB1 upside ROS?

 

 Cole has an average/below average QB and is in a WR committee. Dede is almost as good, and Moncrief is getting a lot of looks. Plus they have the best defense, so game script isn't usually demanding passes. I think WR2 upside is fair.

If austin has games like he did he will have WR1 upside. I dont really get into the "upside" talk much as i think its pointless. I think cole is the best receiver on the jags. Anything can happen mah dude

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I keep seing this stat that he's averaging 99.6 yards over his last 6 games.

 

Can anybody who's actually seen at least a few of them speak on the type of continuity he's been showing?

 

Simply a case of being fed targets or is this guy creating things out there?

 

 

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On 9/19/2018 at 5:53 PM, 10giz said:

I keep seing this stat that he's averaging 99.6 yards over his last 6 games.

 

Can anybody who's actually seen at least a few of them speak on the type of continuity he's been showing?

 

Simply a case of being fed targets or is this guy creating things out there?

 

 

 

Watch his YouTube highlights vs the Texans last year and that will show the epitome of who he is. He just has a way of getting open and adjusting to catch Bortles’ passes. Bortles clearly trusts him.

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On 9/19/2018 at 8:53 PM, 10giz said:

I keep seing this stat that he's averaging 99.6 yards over his last 6 games.

 

Can anybody who's actually seen at least a few of them speak on the type of continuity he's been showing?

 

Simply a case of being fed targets or is this guy creating things out there?

 

 


To be fair he had a couple 70+ yard receptions at the end of the season which blow the average way out of proportion (not to denigrate his production, just saying there are some outliers there). Also, this is obviously not taking the post-season into account, as in 3 games in the playoffs he managed 3 receptions on 6 targets for 82 yards. As for continuity, that's not really the word I would use to describe Cole or the Jaguar's passing game as a whole... they have a ton of options out there, and Bortles likes the spread it around. It's hard to establish any sort of pattern with Cole so far as there have been a lot of variables at play:  

 

As a rookie he wasn't really seeing the field regularly until at least halfway through the season, and even then he didn't see a huge spike in usage until Lee went down in Week 15. He also only started 6 games last season, and topped 65 yards only 3 times on the entire season - in two of those he had a 70+ yard reception, in the other he had 13 targets. 
It's also worth remembering that Dede Westbrook was drafted to be their next receiver, not Cole who went undrafted. Westbrook's rookie season was derailed by a Week 1 injury, and from the moment he was back on the field in Week 10 he slightly outpaced Cole in targets at 51-to-49, despite coming in cold. They also went out and drafted Chark in the second round, and brought in ASJ over the middle, and have started using Yeldon far more often in the passing game. 

All of this isn't to say that Cole doesn't have the talent or the opportunity to be an asset in fantasy, just that there are lot of variables at play in Jacksonville that could limit his production - we've seen the talent, but the fact that it's been essentially relegated to 4 games out of the 21 games that he's played makes it hard to believe that he's in line for a major breakout. More than likely, we're seeing again what we've seen out of the Jax passing offense for the past year or two - a system that allows for players to pop off at random times but not enough concentrated usage to produce an every-week starter. I hope I'm wrong and that Cole's talent wins out and they start focusing on him as a true WR1, but that has never seemed to be a priority in Marrone's offense. 

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2 hours ago, DekuTree said:

As a rookie he wasn't really seeing the field regularly until at least halfway through the season, and even then he didn't see a huge spike in usage until Lee went down in Week 15. He also only started 6 games last season, and topped 65 yards only 3 times on the entire season - in two of those he had a 70+ yard reception, in the other he had 13 targets. 

 

I don't quite understand the point here. To me, and maybe I'm just reading the narrative the way I want to instead of the other way around, but doesn't it make sense that a Rookie UDFA playing behind multiple players would see increased usage and have better chance of having numbers later in the season? Isn't it/shouldn't it be considered a good thing that he can get 70+ Yard Receptions, which in-and-of itself is very difficult to do?

 

The point to be would be.... Is he getting targets? Are those targets valuable or can he make big plays with them? Answer to both questions is yes. 

 

He got a good amount of snaps from early last season. He was still 3rd in Snaps behind Lee and Hurns from Weeks 1-10, when Hurns got hurt. He also played behind Dede for a few of the games until Lee got hurt. 

 

His role and rapport grew throughout the season with Bortles. He seemed to play better throughout the season. He was a U.D.F.A! This isn't a knock. 

 

In the sample where he doesn't play with Lee and doesn't play with Hurns-- even if you include the game where Lee went out-- he is pacing 80/1,589/8 Yards. And no I really don't count postseason football because it is played a bit differently, and as a UDFA he saw the field a lot less. He's seeing the field and targets this year. 

 

2 hours ago, DekuTree said:

It's also worth remembering that Dede Westbrook was drafted to be their next receiver, not Cole who went undrafted. Westbrook's rookie season was derailed by a Week 1 injury, and from the moment he was back on the field in Week 10 he slightly outpaced Cole in targets at 51-to-49, despite coming in cold. They also went out and drafted Chark in the second round, and brought in ASJ over the middle, and have started using Yeldon far more often in the passing game. 

 

I think you're overselling the importance of drafting a player in the late-4th against a UDFA. At that range, I just personally believe after a year+ of investments that come from time & effort, I don't really care about Day 3 draft picks. If you hit on a UDFA no one in the world cares about the sunk cost of a 4th. 

 

And in terms of target #, Westbrook is a slot receiver with a low YPR. If you consider Keelan Cole a qualified receiver, he had the highest YPR in the NFL in 2017. Westbrook averaged 12.6 YPR last year. Cole averaged 17.8. Massive, massive difference. He's a deep threat who doesn't need to out-target Westbrook to be a far better WR than him. He just needs to continue to out YPR him. So far this season, he has continued to win with deep balls. 

 

2 hours ago, DekuTree said:

All of this isn't to say that Cole doesn't have the talent or the opportunity to be an asset in fantasy, just that there are lot of variables at play in Jacksonville that could limit his production

 

This can be said about anybody. Cole has more variables-- far more-- pointing in his favor IMO. 

 

2 hours ago, DekuTree said:

but the fact that it's been essentially relegated to 4 games out of the 21 games that he's played makes it hard to believe that he's in line for a major breakout.

3 Fouls on the Play: 

1.) Roster

2.) UDFA

3.) Ignoring the fact that not every top-24 WR produces a top 24-WR season every Week. 

 

When you look at what he's done in every game he was the #1 and #2 WR and you average it out, you get a top 24 WR season easily. So to smash your focus in on these 4 games, bring up his entire career, and not even discuss the change of situation... is a bit of a fallacy... and is just super misleading IMO. This year he has been #1 in Snaps and #1 in Snaps. Focusing on the first 10 games of his career when he was third fiddle to more established WRs with rapport with the QB and he was a UDFA is just wrong IMO. 

2 hours ago, DekuTree said:

More than likely, we're seeing again what we've seen out of the Jax passing offense for the past year or two - a system that allows for players to pop off at random times but not enough concentrated usage to produce an every-week starter.

 

Completely and 100% an inaccurate statement that is in no means what-so-ever true. 

 

In 2015 Allen Robinson was a monster. In 2016 Allen Robinson was the WR23. In 2017 Marquise Lee was the WR23 from Weeks 2 until he got injured in Week 14. Blake Bortles has never failed to produce a top 24 WR for any reason but injury. The entire year last year--short of week ONE-- you could've played Marqise Lee expecting low-WR2 and high-WR3 numbers.

 

Keelan Cole... is better than Marqise Lee.

 

People keep saying this and it just is false. There's no other way for me to say it other than it is just a false statement. Blake does spread the ball around a bit, but he was also 11th in Passing Yards last year playing for a historic defense, and has never been a QB who focuses on either the TE or RB positions very often. Fournette and TJ had 300/220 last year in the passing game. The #1 TE in Jacksonville had 318 Yards.

 

We have seen plenty of evidence the last few years that this offense can produce an every week starter. 

 

And don't take offense to the above ^^. I'm just completely frustrated with this point that I don't believe is even al ittle bit true. Everyone says, and has said from the offseason, that the Jags are not in position to have consistent WR passing volume. They have shown us nothing but consistent WR passing volume for their entire history. The only reason we don't see it is that AR was such a disappointment in 2016 that we forget how good he actually was (still top 24) and Marqise Lee got hurt so he dosen't finish as high as he would've if he would've finished the season healthy. 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 9/17/2018 at 12:27 PM, munde53 said:

Maybe I am contradicting myself a bit, but what I'm trying to say is that I don't believe in Bortles or how much the Jags threw the ball yesterday. Because of this I don't think Cole will be an every week WR2 but he will be a WR3 with solid upside. 

 

 

I boil it down to will his production be predictable week to week which is a much easier process than trying to ascertain is he a wr1 2 or 3.

 

nothing in the jax passing offense gives me a stong sense that they will target one guy more than the other. What I have noticed is Blake is comfortable spreading he ball around as he works through his progressions and his rb's an catch the dumpoffs  effectively. He hasnt tried to force the ball to any wr in particular, what I also noticed is they move the wrs around the route tree too.

So my current view is  moncreif-coles-dede can be the wr1 on this offense on any given week.  I think you ned an injury filled season like last year for one of the jags wr's to become dominant on a weekly basis.

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For anyone in dynasty, how would you value the difference between Cole and Westbrook? A 2nd rd pick? 3rd rounder? 

 

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17 minutes ago, taobball said:
2 hours ago, DekuTree said:

As a rookie he wasn't really seeing the field regularly until at least halfway through the season, and even then he didn't see a huge spike in usage until Lee went down in Week 15. He also only started 6 games last season, and topped 65 yards only 3 times on the entire season - in two of those he had a 70+ yard reception, in the other he had 13 targets. 

 

I don't quite understand the point here. To me, and maybe I'm just reading the narrative the way I want to instead of the other way around, but doesn't it make sense that a Rookie UDFA playing behind multiple players would see increased usage and have better chance of having numbers later in the season? Isn't it/shouldn't it be considered a good thing that he can get 70+ Yard Receptions, which in-and-of itself is very difficult to do?


You are. The point I was making was that even ignoring the first half of the season, when as a rookie UDFA he would obviously be acclimating to the field, that even from Week 9 on when he began receiving on average ~7 targets a game, he finished half of them with less than 50 yards and only 3 of them did he give production worthy of an actual start. And yes, 70+ yard receptions are great, but when your two 70+ yard receptions account for nearly 25% of your production in an 8 week span it's not exactly oozing consistency. 

 

24 minutes ago, taobball said:

The point to be would be.... Is he getting targets? Are those targets valuable or can he make big plays with them? Answer to both questions is yes. 


Of course he's getting targets. Exactly 15% of the targets. Know who else is getting those exact same quality targets? Donte Moncrief with 18% of them. And? That's right, Dede Westbrook with 14% of them, and at a clip of 14.78 yards per target to wit. Not exactly screaming "low YPR" to me. Lower? Yes. Low? No. 

 

28 minutes ago, taobball said:

In the sample where he doesn't play with Lee and doesn't play with Hurns-- even if you include the game where Lee went out-- he is pacing 80/1,589/8 Yards. And no I really don't count postseason football because it is played a bit differently, and as a UDFA he saw the field a lot less. He's seeing the field and targets this year. 


Do we really need to go into the logical fallacy of extrapolating a 3-game sample size to an entire season? 
 

 

30 minutes ago, taobball said:

I think you're overselling the importance of drafting a player in the late-4th against a UDFA. At that range, I just personally believe after a year+ of investments that come from time & effort, I don't really care about Day 3 draft picks. If you hit on a UDFA no one in the world cares about the sunk cost of a 4th. 

 

And in terms of target #, Westbrook is a slot receiver with a low YPR. If you consider Keelan Cole a qualified receiver, he had the highest YPR in the NFL in 2017. Westbrook averaged 12.6 YPR last year. Cole averaged 17.8. Massive, massive difference. He's a deep threat who doesn't need to out-target Westbrook to be a far better WR than him. He just needs to continue to out YPR him. So far this season, he has continued to win with deep balls. 


No argument on the draft picks, it really doesn't make a huge difference in the scheme of things, just to point out that if Westbrook hadn't been injured he most likely would have been worked into a more prominent role in the offense before Cole would have gotten a bigger role with the Hurns injury. And yes, Cole is 'winning' this season, but at 10-170-1  to 9-133-1 you might be overselling the difference a little bit. 

 

 

34 minutes ago, taobball said:

Ignoring the fact that not every top-24 WR produces a top 24-WR season every Week. 

 

When you look at what he's done in every game he was the #1 and #2 WR and you average it out, you get a top 24 WR season easily. So to smash your focus in on these 4 games, bring up his entire career, and not even discuss the change of situation... is a bit of a fallacy... and is just super misleading IMO. This year he has been #1 in Snaps and #1 in Snaps. Focusing on the first 10 games of his career when he was third fiddle to more established WRs with rapport with the QB and he was a UDFA is just wrong IMO. 


Again, claiming a fallacy for focusing on a 4 game sample and then turning around and extrapolating a similar sample size to an entire season? That's not how it works. Yes, 4 games out of 21 assumes a lot of situations that have changed, including injuries, his slower acclimation to the offense, etc. But regardless, where would you like to draw the line? When Hurns got hurt and he became a #2? 4 games out of 12. Ignore the playoffs because they're for some reason "different" (though wouldn't you want to employ your best threat and biggest talent in your most important games)? Fine, 4 games out of 9. Either way, he's been at best startable in 50% of the games he's played a major role in the offense.

 

And yes, many many of the top receivers out there don't post great numbers every game, but there's a wide gamut of types of fantasy receivers out there. Taking a guy's numbers who has only produced in half of his games, averaging them out and extrapolating them over an entire season does not mean that he produces those numbers every game and is thus a WR2/3. If you did the same with a player like Desean Jackson (not comparing the two, just demonstrating the volatility of averaging statistics), would you assume that he's a an every week WR2? No, you look at the actual situation and realize that he's a boom or bust player depending on the gameflow. And that's not to call Cole a boom-or-bust prospect, because he's obviously not - but his production does seem very influenced by gameflow, instead of any sort of established role as a focal point of the offense. 

 

54 minutes ago, taobball said:

Completely and 100% an inaccurate statement that is in no means what-so-ever true. 

 

In 2015 Allen Robinson was a monster. In 2016 Allen Robinson was the WR23. In 2017 Marquise Lee was the WR23 from Weeks 2 until he got injured in Week 14. Blake Bortles has never failed to produce a top 24 WR for any reason but injury. The entire year last year--short of week ONE-- you could've played Marqise Lee expecting low-WR2 and high-WR3 numbers.


Which is why I said 'the past year or two,' which doesn't include 2015 or 2016. And again, averaging - Lee was useless in 5/13 games played and averaged 4/54/.25... I mean, yeah, that's fine for a desperation WR3 but there are 30 players in the league that could put up those numbers any given week. 

 

1 hour ago, taobball said:

Keelan Cole... is better than Marqise Lee.


Absolutely no argument here. Look, I one hundred percent agree that Cole is the most talented receiver on this roster and has the most potential to have a breakout year. It's just that in my opinion (which is just that, an opinion) the offense as it is currently structured, barring injuries or a major dip in defensive efficiency, isn't going to allow for Cole to produce meaningful enough numbers to rely on him as a week-to-week starter. I think we probably saw his ceiling game against a Patriots offense that Marrone was determined not to let come back in the game like they did in the playoffs, and in which they couldn't rely on their run game. I don't think there are too many other teams in the league that are going to give that big of a challenge to them, and while that doesn't mean that Bortles won't get his air numbers I think they lean more on a structured gameplan of slowing the game down, making methodical passes to whatever receiver is available and running the ball with Fournette as much as his health will allow. Again, all of this breaks down if there's any sort of upset to the balance (read, injuries) but as it stands I think it's going to be hard to predict what type of production you're going to get from Cole on a weekly basis. I drafted the guy and plan on hanging on until I get some clarity, but I think there's an argument to be made for both the optimistic and pessimistic sides. 

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I’d be happy with ARob’s 2016 numbers from Cole. The fantasy community was incensed with his performance that year because he was taken at the 1nd/2nd round turn and didn’t come close to producing at that level.  I got Cole in the 14th round and a lot of us picked him up off waivers.

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1 minute ago, eg4190 said:

I’d be happy with ARob’s 2016 numbers from Cole. The fantasy community was incensed with his performance that year because he was taken at the 1nd/2nd round turn and didn’t come close to producing at that level.  I got Cole in the 14th round and a lot of us picked him up off waivers.

 

They were incensed because he got 150+ targets and couldn't even crack the top-25 WRs that year. Cole with 150+ targets would easily be a top-10 WR.

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