handyandy86

Matt Carpenter 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

I've watched him hit a decent amount over the years and never thought he would have issues going opposite field, but his last couple years oppo rate has dropped way down. He talked prior to the season about not trying to be home run happy and that shows in his line drive rate up 5 percent and FB-rate down by 6 percent. Too good a hitter to not get back to .270/.370/.490 or so production. 

I will correct myself and agree, prime Carp could hit up the middle, oppo, or pull the ball. I think his sellout for power approach the last couple of years may have messed something up with him. I do think he will come around eventually but just don't know when. The reason I would be ok dropping him is because I know he wouldn't be picked up. Of course, after tonight I am holding after his signs of life. Plus I've been patient enough to keep him around this long so not gonna waste that patience for nothing. I'm in an OPS so he isn't terrible but even with his high OBP his OPS is still in the .600s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MrMartyBarrett said:

Is there any hope here?  Because it's tough to see any.

 

I think so.

 

Carpenter is still walking a lot and still making a lot of hard contact. His batted ball profile is very similar to the past few years but somehow he's got a .197 BABIP. That should go up. The increased K rate is a bit of a problem, but it's not out of control.

 

Overall he looks to me like the same player he has been the last few years, with maybe a little age-related decline and a lot of bad luck. I expect him to bounce back.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

 

I think so.

 

Carpenter is still walking a lot and still making a lot of hard contact. His batted ball profile is very similar to the past few years but somehow he's got a .197 BABIP. That should go up. The increased K rate is a bit of a problem, but it's not out of control.

 

Overall he looks to me like the same player he has been the last few years, with maybe a little age-related decline and a lot of bad luck. I expect him to bounce back.

 

Another bit of hope, depending on your format, is that he's playing 2B today and needs just a couple more after that to be 10-game eligible at 2B/MI in a lot of leagues. I don't think he gets back to vintage Carp, but as you said about his hard-contact profile I still think we can get somewhere between his 2016 and 2017 seasons rest of season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

 

I think so.

 

Carpenter is still walking a lot and still making a lot of hard contact. His batted ball profile is very similar to the past few years but somehow he's got a .197 BABIP. That should go up. The increased K rate is a bit of a problem, but it's not out of control.

 

Overall he looks to me like the same player he has been the last few years, with maybe a little age-related decline and a lot of bad luck. I expect him to bounce back.

I said this last page or a few pages before, but the hard contact is being mitigated by the fact that he’s making less contact overall anyways. Yeah, he’s got a nice little stroke when he does hit it, but that’s not super meaningful when he’s not actually putting bat on ball as much as he has in years past. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeez, this is getting ugly. Haven't seen a ton of Cardinals games, but is there scuttlebutt that the shoulder injury didn't respond to the non-surgical plan as hoped? Granted, Carpenter is 32, but even if he's in age related decline, this is a pretty dramatic fall off the table. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I"m so close to dropping him.  Almost did it last week but due to the lack of decent CI on the wire I decided to wait a little while longer.  He's dead weight right now and I wonder how much leash he has with the Cardinals if he keeps this up.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Bill Blazejowski said:

I"m so close to dropping him.  Almost did it last week but due to the lack of decent CI on the wire I decided to wait a little while longer.  He's dead weight right now and I wonder how much leash he has with the Cardinals if he keeps this up.  

If you're worried about leash, I wouldn't be. He's got a loooooooong leash with Matheny.

 

Dude would have to be traded away before he stops getting regular time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the few hitters where advance metrics don't really work.  The advance metrics blind spot probably in play here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, B&F said:

One of the few hitters where advance metrics don't really work.  The advance metrics blind spot probably in play here.

What would the blind spot be?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Philoumenos said:

What would the blind spot be?

The shift 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Csiebert5 said:

The shift 

That's what I was thinking yesterday, but I got a little too lazy to do an xBABIP calculation accounting for the shift. Maybe later today if I have time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Carp just go dropped in my league. I haven't really followed him much this year. Not trying to be BC, but is he worth spending a little FAAB to pick up in the hopes that he can turn things around? 

 

Even as poorly as he's hitting, his roto counting stats are still on a 160-game pace for 60-15-65 along with 115 walks. Makes me think a BA correction would lead to the counting stats we expect out of Carpenter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dynasty owner since day 1 - I am not optimistic about a rebound this year.

I'm certain his shoulder is still injured.

He's walking but that's not super supportive in this instance. He can't hit so of course he's taking his walks. Just for reference, Brad Miller had a ton of walks last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just dropped him as part of a trade receiving Jed Lowrie. Low Ks is not worth the absurdly s---y average

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's still hitting the ball hard...

 

Barrels and Line Drive Percentage are pretty good.   

BABIP is insanely low (.186)

Drawing tons of walks (17.6% BB rate)

Bats at the top of the order.

He's about to get second base eligibility or already has it.

Expected wOBA is pretty good (.391)

 

Unless you play in an old-school league that only counts batting average and doesn't reward walks at all, it is foolish to drop him.

 

I think he's a buy low and would grab him in a second if he got dropped.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m out.  If I can’t get out I’m benching.  I’d actually feel better if he got DL’ed.  He’s Walking the same rate as he did last season, striking out more, everything else is worse.  You really have to dig to find something positive.  I don’t like how this is looking.  No sir I don’t like it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dropped him today in a 10 teamer, couldn't take it anymore. He decided to re-hab his shoulder in the off season instead of surgery. I believe its still an issue but we'll see I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw this on Fangraphs' in the "most changed hitters" update, thought it was pretty interesting.

aiBnsYh.png

And the blurb on him:

Quote

As an example of someone who might not be better, Carpenter’s in fourth, and he’s there in large part because his contact rate has dropped by more than ten points. He’s also generating a little less loft, and while the league around him has apparently been hitting the ball harder, Carpenter hasn’t risen with the tide. Again, changing isn’t always a good thing. The Cardinals would like to have the Carpenter they had before. That guy was outstanding.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/here-are-baseballs-most-changed-hitters/

 

Maybe things aren't looking as bright as some people seem to think.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Struck out in three straight at bats against the mighty Jordan Lyles tonight. Two of Lyles’ other three strikeouts were the opposing pitcher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I drafted him this year, but dude looks washed.  Sat behind home plate tonight, the bat is really slow.  Maybe he's injured, not sure, but this isn't your typical slow start without worry.  Dude's bat looks like it's coated in molasses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I went to go look at the shift data on Carp today, and this seems kind of weird to me:

 

ZTstsmJ.png

 

So for the past few years, the percent that Carpenter has been shifted has steadily climbed from 33.8% to 61.3% finally to 81.3% this year.

 

But when the shift was deployed against him in past years, he still generally managed to have a good wOBA against it, and apparently was even better than without the shift.

 

This year however, it's flipped around. His wOBA with the shift is terrible and at an all-time low. I guess this could be seen as a luck thing, but isn't this actually a result of him changing his swing approach back? Because for the past few years, he had adjusted to hitting the ball into the air, but then this year said he wanted to stop "selling his soul for homers." So I guess teams knew he changed his approach and are just shifting even more to account for him trying to hit less balls in the air? Because if that's the case, that doesn't seem to bode well for his results changing in the future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.