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MacKenzie Gore- SP SD

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Padres LHP prospect MacKenzie Gore struck out four hitters over 5 1/3 scoreless innings on Saturday for Double-A Amarillo.

Gore allowed just two hits, and he walked one. It was the first start at the Double-A level for the 20-year-old, but you wouldn't have known it. The third pick of the 2017 draft showed the same impressive command and poise that he did with High-A Lake Elsinore, and the stuff to make those things even more relevant. He now owns a 0.96 ERA in his 16 starts this year with a 114/21 K/BB rate and .136 average against. The ceiling -- and floor -- here is ridiculous. There's an outside shot we see Gore pitching for the Padres in 2019 if this keeps up at the Texas League level.

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Dudes been shutdown. Will pitch on the side still and could possibly be activated for the AA playoffs. He surpassed his previous innings total by 40 IP. He owned a 1.72 era, 0.84 whip, & 130:27 K:BB.

The sky is the limit with a kid of this caliber and I think the Padres obviously know this so sounds like he may be handled with kid gloves.

Edited by bjvance5

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28 minutes ago, bjvance5 said:

Dudes been shutdown. Will pitch on the side still and could possibly be activated for the AA playoffs. He surpassed his previous innings total by 40 IP. He owned a 1.72 era, 0.84 whip, & 130:27 K:BB.

The sky is the limit with a kid of this caliber and I think the Padres obviously know this so sounds like he may be handled with kid gloves.

Smart...a similar bump again next year will put him at 130-140 IP range. That should get him to AAA sometime next year assuming all goes well.

 

So ETA to San Diego in mid-2021 then? As a dynasty owner, I'm glad they're using this approach.

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1 hour ago, wayzupusc said:

Smart...a similar bump again next year will put him at 130-140 IP range. That should get him to AAA sometime next year assuming all goes well.

 

So ETA to San Diego in mid-2021 then? As a dynasty owner, I'm glad they're using this approach.

hes going to be given a shot in Spring Training, I can almost guarantee that.  He will also never see AAA, they will keep him in AA til he reaches the bigs, same with Patino

IMO the absolute latest you see him is July 2020 barring injury

Edited by Golden Spikes

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Not sure how this all works, but anyone think we will see him on the OD roster like Paddack of last year?

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3 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

Not sure how this all works, but anyone think we will see him on the OD roster like Paddack of last year?

Paddack killed it last year in ST and forced their hand. I think Gore would have to do the same.

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5 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

Not sure how this all works, but anyone think we will see him on the OD roster like Paddack of last year?

Doubtful unless mass injuries hit.  They got a pretty set rotation, Paddack, Lamet, Richards, Davies, Lucchesi.  

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6 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Doubtful unless mass injuries hit.  They got a pretty set rotation, Paddack, Lamet, Richards, Davies, Lucchesi.  

I could see the Padres going with a 6 man rotation considering the injury history of Paddack, Lamet and especially Richards.  That would allow Gore a rotation spot and keep his innings down.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Doubtful unless mass injuries hit.  They got a pretty set rotation, Paddack, Lamet, Richards, Davies, Lucchesi.  

 

With Richards being made out of paper mache, perhaps injuries will strike at some point which would open the door for Gore.

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Posted (edited)

I remember last year when a few were trying to claim that Casey Mize was the better pitching prospect.

@DerrickHenrysCleats, do you still feel that way?

Edited by ThreadKiller

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Probably playing the season 

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On 3/25/2020 at 7:14 AM, ThreadKiller said:

I remember last year when a few were trying to claim that Casey Mize was the better pitching prospect.

@DerrickHenrysCleats, do you still feel that way?

 

I think if Mize never gets hurts he probably would have been a decent to really good pitcher in the majors last year.

 

Gore is certainly the best guy to have in the minors in terms of pitching, but there's no sure things.

 

Side note: I can't remember the last time the consensus top starter as a prospect  at the beginning of the season set to debut that year actually was worth their ADP. 

 

Whitley, Bauer, Giolito, Archie Bradley all were pretty rough to own early. Whitley didn't even make the majors last year and some people were saying he should have been the TOP prospect. Not saying Gore won't be a stud but I'm absolutely not investing a premium redraft pick on him. 

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On 5/28/2020 at 7:21 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

I think if Mize never gets hurts he probably would have been a decent to really good pitcher in the majors last year.

 

Gore is certainly the best guy to have in the minors in terms of pitching, but there's no sure things.

 

Side note: I can't remember the last time the consensus top starter as a prospect  at the beginning of the season set to debut that year actually was worth their ADP. 

 

Whitley, Bauer, Giolito, Archie Bradley all were pretty rough to own early. Whitley didn't even make the majors last year and some people were saying he should have been the TOP prospect. Not saying Gore won't be a stud but I'm absolutely not investing a premium redraft pick on him. 

 

While Gore is a good talent he is vastly over rated.  I wouldn't touch him in redraft.  Even in redraft next year he could be a flop for where he's going to end up going.  A lot of Gore's fantasy value is the fact that he's in PETCO but put a DH up against him every night and a young pitcher quickly looses value.  I'd rather wait on a bunch of other pitchers who will likely out do Gore over the next 1.5 seasons as well as go much later.

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12 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

While Gore is a good talent he is vastly over rated.  I wouldn't touch him in redraft.  Even in redraft next year he could be a flop for where he's going to end up going.  A lot of Gore's fantasy value is the fact that he's in PETCO but put a DH up against him every night and a young pitcher quickly looses value.  I'd rather wait on a bunch of other pitchers who will likely out do Gore over the next 1.5 seasons as well as go much later.

 

Petco doesn't play like it use to, but sure it's still a pitcher's park.  I'm not sure his price is that high this year, but I'm still likely avoiding because I'm not confident the upside is tremendous this year.  If he has a rough year and his ADP is low next year with a guaranteed start in the majors, I'd be much more willing to dive in.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Petco doesn't play like it use to, but sure it's still a pitcher's park.  I'm not sure his price is that high this year, but I'm still likely avoiding because I'm not confident the upside is tremendous this year.  If he has a rough year and his ADP is low next year with a guaranteed start in the majors, I'd be much more willing to dive in.

 

Yeah universal DH extra pitchers on the roster.  Even if he pitched well on the day chances are he's removed the first sign of trouble in the 5th and especially in the 6th.  If you drafted before the pandemic and got him you probably got decent value.  Any drafts post pandemic I doubt you get any return on an investment.  I say this knowing he was going fairly late in redrafts. What really is his upside?...

 

Zips has him projected for 105Ks.  I'd take the under on that for sure in a shortened season and expanded rosters.  Depth Chart projects 81 and Steamer 76.  I think 76 a fair projection with how much hype surrounds Gore.  But ultimately I would likely take the under on 76 as well as I just don't see him breaking 70 innings this year.  101 innings last year between Advanced A and AA and that was by far the most innings on his young career.  So 70+ in a season that is likely to be 50% of a normal season just doesn't seam feasible especially when he isn't going to be allowed the 3rd time through a whole lot.  So expect low win totals too.

 

 

ERA wise he's projected 3.62 (Steamer), 4.26 Zips, and 3.94 Death Charts.   I'd be taking the over on 3.94 for sure Zip's 4.26 seems reasonable as I don't think he'll ever be allowed to be out there to get much worse than 4.26.  Note that he had a 4.15 ERA in AA (only 5 starts) where his H9 more than doubled (4.08 to 8.31) and his HR9 tripled (0.45 to 1.25).  Skipping AAA into the big leagues and not getting his expected NL boost with the universal DH.  His best bet at success I feel is if the MLB uses a ball that randomly benefits his arsenal and approach.  But if it's the same juiced ball he could be in for a rough time. 

 

A high majority of 4-5 inning pitched games is not going to win you anything in fantasy especially if it's a quality start league.

 

I'm thinking best case scenario is they commit to pitch him every time it's his turn at the back of the rotation.  That would give him what 31 - 32 starts max in a normal season for a 5th starter.  So 16 starts would be half off that which is way too high.  Say we go with the projections of zips (21 way too high) Steamer (13) and Depth Charts (13).  13 seems fair if they're committed to getting him that much work he would still have to average just over 5.1 innings a start to break 70 innings.

 

Also what happens if the Padres are actually right in the thick of things?  Do they have to convert him into a RP for the last 5-6 weeks of the season to hopefully get more out of him in the playoffs?

 

Now I'm almost thinking best case scenario is they bring him up as an extended reviler get some holds and 3 inning saves.  Honestly it would be the most logical.  You could get him in a very good position to succeed.  The Padres should use Gore as their pitcher following an opener. 

 

Ultimately I totally agree next year could net some value if he struggles this year.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Yeah universal DH extra pitchers on the roster.  Even if he pitched well on the day chances are he's removed the first sign of trouble in the 5th and especially in the 6th.  If you drafted before the pandemic and got him you probably got decent value.  Any drafts post pandemic I doubt you get any return on an investment.  I say this knowing he was going fairly late in redrafts. What really is his upside?...

 

Zips has him projected for 105Ks.  I'd take the under on that for sure in a shortened season and expanded rosters.  Depth Chart projects 81 and Steamer 76.  I think 76 a fair projection with how much hype surrounds Gore.  But ultimately I would likely take the under on 76 as well as I just don't see him breaking 70 innings this year.  101 innings last year between Advanced A and AA and that was by far the most innings on his young career.  So 70+ in a season that is likely to be 50% of a normal season just doesn't seam feasible especially when he isn't going to be allowed the 3rd time through a whole lot.  So expect low win totals too.

 

 

ERA wise he's projected 3.62 (Steamer), 4.26 Zips, and 3.94 Death Charts.   I'd be taking the over on 3.94 for sure Zip's 4.26 seems reasonable as I don't think he'll ever be allowed to be out there to get much worse than 4.26.  Note that he had a 4.15 ERA in AA (only 5 starts) where his H9 more than doubled (4.08 to 8.31) and his HR9 tripled (0.45 to 1.25).  Skipping AAA into the big leagues and not getting his expected NL boost with the universal DH.  His best bet at success I feel is if the MLB uses a ball that randomly benefits his arsenal and approach.  But if it's the same juiced ball he could be in for a rough time. 

 

A high majority of 4-5 inning pitched games is not going to win you anything in fantasy especially if it's a quality start league.

 

I'm thinking best case scenario is they commit to pitch him every time it's his turn at the back of the rotation.  That would give him what 31 - 32 starts max in a normal season for a 5th starter.  So 16 starts would be half off that which is way too high.  Say we go with the projections of zips (21 way too high) Steamer (13) and Depth Charts (13).  13 seems fair if they're committed to getting him that much work he would still have to average just over 5.1 innings a start to break 70 innings.

 

Also what happens if the Padres are actually right in the thick of things?  Do they have to convert him into a RP for the last 5-6 weeks of the season to hopefully get more out of him in the playoffs?

 

Now I'm almost thinking best case scenario is they bring him up as an extended reviler get some holds and 3 inning saves.  Honestly it would be the most logical.  You could get him in a very good position to succeed.  The Padres should use Gore as their pitcher following an opener. 

 

Ultimately I totally agree next year could net some value if he struggles this year.

 

He's the #1 pitching prospect in baseball irregardless of team and league, those don't factor in to his ranking.  The universal DH hurts all NL pitchers.  Having expanded rosters and relievers hurt a ton of starters, certainly most of the ones going around Gore's ADP too.

 

Also I disagree with talking about absolutes as in "Any drafts post pandemic I doubt you get any return on an investment."  It's going to be half a season or less of games.  It's a pretty small sample size, almost any pitcher can over perform or under perform quite easily. 

 

If the Padres are in the thick of things?  I'm still under the impression that based on talent Gore is already a top 5 starter for the Padres, perhaps 3-4, an injury vaults him up too.  Paddack I'd clearly have over Gore for 2020, but the rest of the guys, I'm not that confident in at all. This is not a strong rotation despite some people saying it is. Everyone is unproven, and the only guy that I have any faith in is Paddack, a 2nd year player. Lamet/Richards could  be good. Richards was good in 14/15.  Since 2016, the 8 seasons between Lamet/Richards they have provided basically 0 good years. Counting on both of them to be studs in 2020 seems extremely optimistic.  Luchessi and Davies are best case back end guys, Luchessi still profiles best as a reliever.

 

There's certainly bust potential and maybe not worth the risk in 2020, but he definitley has the upside of being the Padres best or second best starter in 2020.

 

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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12 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

So what’s the holdup 

Service time probably? He's also still only 21 years old.

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richards isnt going anywhere healthy, dont think they are ready to abandon lucceshi, and davies hasnt pitched yet and has decent #'s for mlb sp5

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, urban2014 said:

So what’s the holdup 

His guessed ETA before covid was either late this season or early next on most online sites.  More about prospect websites thinking/hoping that the covid equation would push his ETA up sooner.  But like said above, it will take another Padres pitcher being moved off the starting roster before he is likely to come up.  If not and they do bring him up he probably would go to the bullpen at first.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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Unbelievable that he got beat out by Pat

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Patino filling in the bullpen. They're keeping Gore on track as a starter. I think this isn't bad news for him.

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