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tonycpsu

Philadelphia Phillies 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, cyberer said:

Especially having seen the eagles go balls out in the same situation (I.e. adding ajayi mid season).

 

This is apples and oranges.  Ajayi basically fell into the Eagles lap -- the combination of the coaching staff souring on him and his bad performance early pushed the price down, and the Birds swooped in (heh).  All they had to pay was 4th round pick, whereas what the Phillies would have had to give up to get Machado would have been much more value-wise.  Situations like Ayayi's are very rare -- I guess the Yankees getting Chapman from the Reds was kind of similar, but the circumstances that led to the depressed value were obviously different.  Credit the teams for jumping on an opportunity to buy from a panicked seller, but don't put that out there as the template for how you make a title run.

 

Meanwhile, I don't think Happ or Hamels were make-or-break acquisitions.  I wish they'd pushed harder to get one of them, but they're both SP4/5 types at this stage of their careers.  I think they need an arm more than a bat, and a more balanced infielder than the offense-heavy Cabrera, but let's wait until after the deadline before we bury them.

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This is suddenly a solid, fairly dangerous lineup. I'm going to have to remember this when looking at my pitchers' matchups:

 

1. Cesar Hernandez (S) 2B

2. Justin Bour (L) 1B

3. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS

4. Rhys Hoskins (R) LF

5. Nick Williams (L) RF

6. Wilson Ramos (R) C

7. Odubel Herrera (L) CF

8. Maikel Franco (R) 3B

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Total gut punch tonight.  Nola twirls a gem, then after getting into a little trouble in the 7th, Kap comes out and tells him he's just giving him a breather, which was an excellent move when your ace is out there.  Then he gives up a grounder that Santana air-mails over the head of Alfaro to let two runs score.  Then of course the bullpen blows up.

 

Still plenty of divisional play, including 7 against the Braves, but the way the team is playing, Atlanta might be resting their regulars for the final series.  This does not resemble a playoff team -- they're lucky to be over .500 at this point.

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Total gut punch tonight.  Nola twirls a gem, then after getting into a little trouble in the 7th, Kap comes out and tells him he's just giving him a breather, which was an excellent move when your ace is out there.  Then he gives up a grounder that Santana air-mails over the head of Alfaro to let two runs score.  Then of course the bullpen blows up.

 

Still plenty of divisional play, including 7 against the Braves, but the way the team is playing, Atlanta might be resting their regulars for the final series.  This does not resemble a playoff team -- they're lucky to be over .500 at this point.

At what point do they just relegate Santana to bench?  Terrible defender.  Straight line .215-.220 all year.  Just been atrocious.  It’s almost September at this point for a team fighting for playoff spot do they have to realize they made a bad investment and move on for 2018?

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He's actually graded out as a slightly plus defender over the years, but it seems like he's made key errors in really high leverage situations.  Bringing in Bour was supposed to be the Plan B but he's hurt.  Jose Bautista, a city turns its lonely eyes to you...

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

He's actually graded out as a slightly plus defender over the years, but it seems like he's made key errors in really high leverage situations.  Bringing in Bour was supposed to be the Plan B but he's hurt.  Jose Bautista, a city turns its lonely eyes to you...

How long is Bour out?  At this point this team needs to just scrap the Santana plan, just like I think Mariners need to scrap Seager.  Guys who have been straight line .215-.220 hitters all year with very few peaks don’t have much spot on teams fighting for playoff lives.  You absolutely need more production.  Is Bautista going to play 1B?

Edited by Cmilne23

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2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

How long is Bour out?

 

Oblique strain.  He said it's a lot milder than the one that had him out last year, but those things have a way of getting re-aggravated.

 

Just now, Cmilne23 said:

Is Bautista going to play 1B?

 

 

Well, I sure don't want him running around in the outfield when Rhys Hoskins is already the worst LF in the league.  He's supposed to be a bench bat, but I really don't want to see him anywhere other than 1B.  I just think he's a Bour fill-in and nothing more.

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Just now, Cmilne23 said:

At what point do they just relegate Santana to bench?  Terrible defender.  Straight line .215-.220 all year.  Just been atrocious.  It’s almost September at this point for a team fighting for playoff spot do they have to realize they made a bad investment and move on for 2018?

 

He sucks, but as is so often the case in MLB he is one of those guys who continuously gets trotted out to the field despite incompetence. Honesty, it's really hard to have 10 errors at first base yet that's how many this joker has. He is literally the worst first baseman in MLB. 

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31 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Total gut punch tonight.  Nola twirls a gem, then after getting into a little trouble in the 7th, Kap comes out and tells him he's just giving him a breather, which was an excellent move when your ace is out there.  Then he gives up a grounder that Santana air-mails over the head of Alfaro to let two runs score.  Then of course the bullpen blows up.

 

Still plenty of divisional play, including 7 against the Braves, but the way the team is playing, Atlanta might be resting their regulars for the final series.  This does not resemble a playoff team -- they're lucky to be over .500 at this point.

Ironically it was a starter on the basepaths that ultimately blew it.  Phillies baseball for you.

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0-for-2 with RISP tonight but hey.....he gets on base. Exactly what a #3 hitter should be doing. Letting Ramos hit 3rd behind a high on-base guy like Hoskins would make too much sense.

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Santana had an awful April, but he's basically been exactly who Philadelphia signed him to be since early May.  Let's just cherry pick some stats.  Rhys Hoskins is Philadelphia's best hitter.  Let's compare him and Santana since May 4 through now.

 

Hoskins: 412 PA, 23 HR, 59 R, 63 RBI, 48 BB, 89 SO, .243/.338/.497, .835 OPS, 123 wRC+

Santana: 427 PA, 18 HR, 50 R, 66 RBI, 70 BB, 60 SO, .244/.365/.453, .819 OPS, 120 wRC+

 

Obviously, Hoskins had a much better April, so his season stats look better overall, but these two have been remarkably similar over the last 400+ PAs.

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I've got no issue with arbitrary endpoint comparisons, but ultimately if Santana's season-long numbers are a disappointment, fans are right to be disappointed.

 

On the other hand (and I think I said this either in this thread or Santana's player thread) part of signing him was just to send a message to fans and other players that the team wasn't giving up on 2018, and I think the results so far vindicate that strategy.  The team had money to burn, so they burnt some on him and Arrieta, and now a team that we thought was going to be rebuilding for 2019 is a few games back in the division with a month (and 7 games against the division leader) left to play.  I don't know the monetary value of a playoff berth in terms of ticket and merch sales, but when you combine what Santana's done on the field relative to whatever bat he's keeping off of the field at the time (at various times: Altherr, Kingery, Cabrera, Bour, Bautista) with the value of sending a signal to fans and other players that the team's going to spend to contend, well, I think it was a good signing overall.

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Even though the run differential and eye test told us this team was playing over their heads all season, it's been really sad to watch this team crash and burn in August and September.  I heard a stat on a podcast today that the team has lost nine games when leading after seven innings, which is the most in the NL.  They've only come from behind in such situations twice, and couldn't do it against a Marlins team full of not-ready prospects, retreads, and guys who wish they were playing literally anywhere else.

 

Nola's been *shoving* out there, giving them a chance to win every fifth day despite a lineup that works much better on paper than it does in real life.  OBP is great, but you need hits, and hard ones.  Also heard a stat that they're last in NL in hard hit rate and last in line drive rate.  Something like 3rd to last in batting average.  We as stat nerds know that OBP is more meaningful, but you can't walk your way to runs very often, and you can't always wait for the homer to clear the bases, either.

 

Meanwhile, the good defenders are for the most part bad hitters, and the good hitters are for the most part bad defenders.  The D is among the worst if not the worst in baseball depending on which metrics you use, but just from watching all the games, it's terrible baseball to watch.  And the baserunning errors!  Oh, my, the baserunning errors.  This team has coughed up so many outs and ended so many rallies with boneheaded mistakes on the basepaths -- and that's before you add in Kapler's decision to put Velasquez out there as a pinch runner that backfired spectacularly a few weeks ago.

 

This team looks totally cooked to me.  Anything can happen with 7 to play against the division-leading Braves, but absent human cloning to make every day a Nola day, it's all over but the reservation of October tee times.  Can't call it a disappointment given how low the expectations were coming in, but seeing what Atlanta's done on a similar rebuild schedule, this team is going to need to make a giant splash in free agency to be competitive next season.

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So far their trade deadline acquisitions have barely improved the offense.

 

Before the ASB: 91 wRC+

After the ASB: 91 wRC+

 

Before the ASB: .236 AVG

After the ASB: .239 AVG

 

Before the ASB: .309 wOBA

After the ASB: .308 wOBA

 

Before the ASB: .709 OPS

After the ASB: .713 OPS

 

Before the ASB: 4.3 Runs/Game

After the ASB: 4.1 Runs/Game

 

 

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Why does their offense blow?  Every position i the order seems decent.  Not great though.

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29 minutes ago, B&F said:

Why does their offense blow?  Every position i the order seems decent.  Not great though.

 

Highest soft% and lowest hard% in MLB, along with the 3rd lowest LD% and 2nd highest IFFB%.

 

Turns out you can't win games just by walking and waiting for the homer that might never come.  Sometimes you need a scorching 2-run double down the line.

 

 

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The only team in the NL East that they have a winning record against are the Marlins. That's not going to win you a division. Forget about the Braves, way things are going they'll have a hard time finishing above the Nats.

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You know, it's funny, midseason, went to a Jays game and met this guy in a bar from Philly.  We struck up a conversation about how good Philly was this year.  This guy just looked at me and said:  "Oh they will lose.  They have a terrible manager.  I am 110% certain they won't make the playoffs.".  

 

Turns out he knew a thing or two.

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