Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

[GreatScott! 663]

1 hour ago, Joeklebba said:

 

Yeah,  it’s pretty concerning how much work Penny got, especially given that the story with him is supposedly that he’d be “eased” in. If that was him being eased in, then Carson is cooked.

 

The good news is that Carson is clearly the better player and if the Seahawks put him on the bench the Seahawks offense will be incredibly bad.

 

They spent a first round pick on Penny. A team isn’t going to draft a RB in the first round only to have him sit behind a late round pick, no matter who looks better. They are going to give Penny every opportunity to try to take the lead job. There should be no doubt about that based on draft capital spent. Penny being “eased in” most likely means a 50/50 split to start the season. The only way that stops is either Penny gets hurt or Carson starts looking like Barry Sanders.  And even then they probably would still be stubborn and trot out Penny.  

[whoopsie 194]

It's like you guys didn't watch the Seahawks last year. Buckle up it will be an RBBC all season.

[Spyplane 805]

Carson had to do more than this to hold off the competition. This looks like a no win RBBC... Thankfully I added Carson for cheap.

[Balthazar 121]

You can safely drop if you need the space.  These early weeks were his best chance to take a leading role and run with it, but it's clear that's not what Seattle's management has in mind.  It's going to be a headache RBBC all season.

[oliminator123 2,861]

56 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Carson had to do more than this to hold off the competition. This looks like a no win RBBC... Thankfully I added Carson for cheap.

Peteyboy is an idiot. Carson is the better runner. 

[dashoe 6,013]

7 minutes ago, Balthazar said:

You can safely drop if you need the space.  These early weeks were his best chance to take a leading role and run with it, but it's clear that's not what Seattle's management has in mind.  It's going to be a headache RBBC all season.

 

I dropped Penny yesterday when i just took a breath and accepted this backfield is a mess. let someone else burn a roster spot holding him 

[affliction 1,604]

Johnny Carson>Chris Carson

[ohio#1eaglesfan 321]

Carson also had a 44 yd reception taken back by penalty. He passed the eye test for me yet again. He has great hands too, so I don't get the hate for him. Had he not fumbled I think he would have dominated touches. 

[devaster 3,952]

3 minutes ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

Carson also had a 44 yd reception taken back by penalty. He passed the eye test for me yet again. He has great hands too, so I don't get the hate for him. Had he not fumbled I think he would have dominated touches. 

The reception was on a screen if I recall that was called back due to holding. So that played a part in those yards.

[flowbee 15]

7 hours ago, GreatScott! said:

 

They spent a first round pick on Penny. A team isn’t going to draft a RB in the first round only to have him sit behind a late round pick, no matter who looks better. They are going to give Penny every opportunity to try to take the lead job. There should be no doubt about that based on draft capital spent. Penny being “eased in” most likely means a 50/50 split to start the season. The only way that stops is either Penny gets hurt or Carson starts looking like Barry Sanders.  And even then they probably would still be stubborn and trot out Penny.  

 

 

The Seahawks in the Carroll era don't strike me as stubborn at all. They've made it known any player can fight/win the starting job regardless of name recognition/salary/draft ranking. They've routinely traded down/given up their first round picks and are confident in being able to find the right type of a players for their system in later rounds. They've also drafted second round picks that were projected as 5th/6th rounders because of what they see in the player. 

 

Thus the 1st round rookie tag doesn't mean as much as you might think. Carson could absolutely be their 20+ carries guy all year as long as he keeps performing but he needs to keep the turnovers down. I think he had multiple fumbles in preseason and one yesterday.. One of the two will emerge..or maybe a total wildcard will out of the blue

Edited September 10, 2018 by flowbee

[Nyblazer11235 1,407]

5 minutes ago, flowbee said:

 

The Seahawks in the Carroll era don't strike me as stubborn at all. They've made it known any player can fight/win the starting job regardless of name recognition/salary/draft ranking. They've routinely traded down/given up their first round picks and are confident in being able to find the right type of a players for their system in later rounds. They've also drafted second round picks that were projected as 5th/6th rounders because of what they see in the player. 

 

Thus the 1st round rookie tag doesn't mean as much as you might think. Carson could absolutely be their 20+ carries guy all year as long as he keeps performing but he needs to keep the turnovers down. I think he had multiple fumbles in preseason and one yesterday.. One of the two will emerge soon.

 

Eddie lacy ring a bell? 

[dashoe 6,013]

10 hours ago, whoopsie said:

It's like you guys didn't watch the Seahawks last year. Buckle up it will be an RBBC all season.

 

but, but, but Pete Carrol WANTS to have a bellcow RB the last couple of seasons wee rbbc because of injuries,  but his history says a bellcow is what he WANTS. . . .

[Spyplane 805]

11 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Peteyboy is an idiot. Carson is the better runner. 

All that matters is how the work is divided up. The party is cancelled. 

[gimme the ball 192]

He is clearly talented, but Pete Carroll will destroy any fantasy relevance he could have. I want to offload him to another team, but his "sell-high" value is basically non-existent right now.

[ohio#1eaglesfan 321]

Passes the eye test with flying colors. Pun intended. 

[devaster 3,952]

I think the narrative is getting a bit skewed simply by box score watching. Carson did look good on a couple runs. But context is needed.

 

1st run - 10 yards (3rd and long situation and the defense was playing the sticks)

2nd run - 24 yards - looked great and also had great blocking and he hurdled a defender.

3rd run - 2 yards - no blocking

4th run - 7 yards and fumble - good blocking and running and fumbled.

5th run - 3 yards - blocking again

 

 

1st reception - 44 yards - looked good, but also had it called back due to offensive holding. The holding helped spring it.

2nd reception - 14 yards - looked good.

3rd reception - 9 yards - looked good.

 

Anyway the rest of the runs look the same as the ones that barely gained any yardage. There was almost zero run blocking outside of the first two drives. Carson did do more with his runs than Penny though despite both having almost no run blocking. Penny was seeing a lot of penetration in the backfield on his runs.

 

[kp96 311]

Looks like we're going to have to wait another week to see if things shake out here....If the move to Penny was motivated by the fumble then maybe we see Carson in the lead next week.  But if we see a similar split next week, time to downgrade Carson.

[ohio#1eaglesfan 321]

Bobby Wagner had this to say about Carson this offseason:

 

"There's a difference when Chris Carson runs the ball," Wagner explained. "He just stands out to me. Every time you watch film, whether it's him out of the backfield or running the ball, he stands out to me.

"I felt like we kind of got a glimpse of that last year; unfortunately he got hurt. So I'm excited to see how that looks 16 games. He looks really, really strong and he looks like he's on a mission."

 

Again I like to make picks off of what players and coaches are saying about players. If he passes Bobby Wagner's eye test, that is good enough for me.

[CABLE87 1,507]

It was the broncos....

[Mr Boo 35]

What's everyone's take on the Seahawks game plan?  Off the bat, it seemed very Wilson throw-centric....running seemed like a secondary thought.

[ohio#1eaglesfan 321]

7 minutes ago, Mr Boo said:

What's everyone's take on the Seahawks game plan?  Off the bat, it seemed very Wilson throw-centric....running seemed like a secondary thought.

Yeah, Wilson was getting sacked all day. Probably should've tried to run more. 

[CABLE87 1,507]

With the addition of a competant QB in Keenum the Broncos defense didnt look gassed for once. I watched very little but keenum made a difference overall. 

[devaster 3,952]

33 minutes ago, kp96 said:

Looks like we're going to have to wait another week to see if things shake out here....If the move to Penny was motivated by the fumble then maybe we see Carson in the lead next week.  But if we see a similar split next week, time to downgrade Carson.

Penny was in well before the fumble. He was in during the entire first RZ sequence.

[TheFire 150]

First time watching this guy play yesterday, and I must say he's just one of those guys that jumps out the screen every time he touches the ball. He looks infinitely better than Rashard Penny.

[CORTEz 872]

I'm not sure why everyone is throwing up red flags...The job is Chris Carson's to lose...

 

He had 7 carries for 51 yards. That's 7.2 YPC.

 

He also had 3 catches for 28 yards. (and a 44 yd reception called back cause of a penalty)...So in retrospect, it could have easily been a 4-72-0 reception day for Carson.

 

The way I see it, he had 80 all purpose yards (and should've had about 120 had that penalty not happened).

 

This, against a DEN defense that gave up the 6th fewest rushing yards per game last season...

 

Carson is a guy that runs hard every play, and knows how to find the gaps. I wouldn't be worried about Penny.

 

Carson may not have "magic breakout game" upside (meaning him dropping 150 yards rushing games), but he should be a lock for around 8 - 12 fantasy points a week in PPR.