Mr2Saint

Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, CraftyRighty said:

Fools Gold 90% of the time ros........

What will be different going forward?

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1 hour ago, CraftyRighty said:

Fools Gold 90% of the time ros........

 

Bell-cow workload in week 3 rushing over 30 times for over 100 yards. Injured in week 4 and watches back-up rush for 100 yards and 2 TD's which makes you think that his job is in jeopardy. Instead, he comes back in week 5 to lead his team in carries and rushes for over 100 yards in week 5. He has 51 carries in his last two games while Russell Wilson is starting to get hot and help open up the offense.

 

Doesn't seem like fools gold to me.

 

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7 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Bell-cow workload in week 3 rushing over 30 times for over 100 yards. Injured in week 4 and watches back-up rush for 100 yards and 2 TD's which makes you think that his job is in jeopardy. Instead, he comes back in week 5 to lead his team in carries and rushes for over 100 yards in week 5. He has 51 carries in his last two games while Russell Wilson is starting to get hot and help open up the offense.

 

Doesn't seem like fools gold to me.

 

 

Not to mention the Seahawks have actually been competitive since they started handing the ball to their RBs and took the best team in the league down to the wire. Only way I see Carson being "fool's gold" is if he gets injured which unfortunately with the way he plays looks more like a when than an if. Don't see Seahawks willingly abandoning the run after the massive success over the past 3 weeks and I don't believe Davis is a legitimate threat (hopefully his involvement helps keep Carson healthy). Carson seemed gassed and signaled to come off shortly before the TD so I'm not ready to concede that Davis is the clear GL back. 

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45 minutes ago, psygolf said:

What will be different going forward?

 

 

I just think one game 11 carries, 35 yards, one game 18, 75, rinse repeat. I cannot afford to be on the end of a 5 point game from my RB2, that is all I am saying

 

Anyone seeing yesterday's game can tell he is hardcore, but injury concern, sharing time, just makes him a bench player to me at least.

 

Fools gold in the sense of RB start and sit back and........more to it than that IMO

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Against the Raiders in London this week.  Does playing in London help him, hurt him, no change?  I'm glad this backfield is ironing out as the bye weeks start rolling in.  I'll happily have him in the flex spot this week with what looks to be some guaranteed volume.

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37 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Bell-cow workload in week 3 rushing over 30 times for over 100 yards. Injured in week 4 and watches back-up rush for 100 yards and 2 TD's which makes you think that his job is in jeopardy. Instead, he comes back in week 5 to lead his team in carries and rushes for over 100 yards in week 5. He has 51 carries in his last two games while Russell Wilson is starting to get hot and help open up the offense.

 

Doesn't seem like fools gold to me.

 

 

Carson had 20 touches and Davis 14 thats  a rbbc not a bellcow backfield.  Assuming that's the formula going forward that means they may cap each others upside it also means in a week where the running game gets stifled you can't count on volume to bail you out nor can you assume who gets the goaline carry. Now you have to monitor how each one is used according to game script going forward to get a understanding of their values.

 

Basically after 5 weeks of messy and unpredictable backfield all we have learned is the running game is better than it was last season, Carson is the starter davis is #2 and penny is out.

 

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3 minutes ago, Even_More_Guruist said:

Against the Raiders in London this week.  Does playing in London help him, hurt him, no change?  I'm glad this backfield is ironing out as the bye weeks start rolling in.  I'll happily have him in the flex spot this week with what looks to be some guaranteed volume.

 

 

I think this is a good assumption to make barring injury you can predict 15-20 touches which is good enough for a flex spot

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11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Carson had 20 touches and Davis 14 thats  a rbbc not a bellcow backfield. 

 

 

Carson did have a bellcow workload in WEEK 3. That's what I was referring to when I said "bell-cow workload in week 3" lol. Unless you think 31 carries isn't a bell-cow workload.

 

13 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Basically after 5 weeks of messy and unpredictable backfield all we have learned is the running game is better than it was last season, Carson is the starter davis is #2 and penny is out.

 

 

What's the problem with that? Not only is Carson the "starter", but he has been a "starter" who has eclipsed 100 yards his last two games played. I think we are learning a lot.

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29 minutes ago, CraftyRighty said:

 

 

I just think one game 11 carries, 35 yards, one game 18, 75, rinse repeat. I cannot afford to be on the end of a 5 point game from my RB2, that is all I am saying

 

Anyone seeing yesterday's game can tell he is hardcore, but injury concern, sharing time, just makes him a bench player to me at least.

 

Fools gold in the sense of RB start and sit back and........more to it than that IMO

so 50% fool's gold -?

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11 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Carson did have a bellcow workload in WEEK 3. That's what I was referring to when I said "bell-cow workload in week 3" lol. Unless you think 31 carries isn't a bell-cow workload.

 

 

What's the problem with that? Not only is Carson the "starter", but he has been a "starter" who has eclipsed 100 yards his last two games played. I think we are learning a lot.

 

The point is this backfield is still shaping up and  has been unpredictable for 5 games. So it's a bit disingenuous to use terms like bellcow when he was a bellcow for  1/5 games same as Davis was the bellcow for 1/5 games. 

40% of the fantasy season is over and there is still some unknown  a to what this backfiield will be and what we currently know is the most recent split is carson 20 vs davis 14 touches makes it a rbbc with neither being the bellcow. 

Who wants to keep 'learning' about if they can trust the production of a player after 5 games when  in the next 4 weeks you are either in or out of playoff contention?

After 5 games you want more certainty about your roster and the predictability of the production.

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11 minutes ago, erik vulaj said:

Carson will be getting 75% of the carries ros. Nothing more to discuss lol

Based on last game it was closer to 62%. But as long as he sees 20 touches that is more than enough to be productive.

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

The point is this backfield is still shaping up and  has been unpredictable for 5 games. So it's a bit disingenuous to use terms like bellcow when he was a bellcow for  1/5 games same as Davis was the bellcow for 1/5 games. 

40% of the fantasy season is over and there is still some unknown  a to what this backfiield will be and what we currently know is the most recent split is carson 20 vs davis 14 touches makes it a rbbc with neither being the bellcow. 

Who wants to keep 'learning' about if they can trust the production of a player after 5 games when  in the next 4 weeks you are either in or out of playoff contention?

After 5 games you want more certainty about your roster and the predictability of the production.

I tried to get John Brown for him and the other owner declined and he needs a rb. I think his trade value reflects what you just said.

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2 hours ago, erik vulaj said:

Carson will be getting 75% of the carries ros. Nothing more to discuss lol

I calculate touches so  20 out of 34 touches in game 5 = 59%  for Carson vs 41% for Davis.

 

Now it remains to be seen if the splits are consistent going forward.

As a previous poster said. . it's flex worthy

Edited by dashoe

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Nobody should be worried about mike davis.. dude has a career average of 2.9 ypc. LOL

Edited by erik vulaj

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Carson had 20 touches and Davis 14 thats  a rbbc not a bellcow backfield. 

 

 

He said bellcow workload week 3, which is correct.

 

On the TD, Carson drove them all the way down the field and signaled to take himself out, probably because he was gassed. Carson is a better runner than Davis and definitely better as a bruiser/goal line back, I highly doubt Mike Davis will be the goal line back a la Blount and snake all the TDs going forward. 

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1 minute ago, furbz420 said:

 

He said bellcow workload week 3, which is correct.

 

On the TD, Carson drove them all the way down the field and signaled to take himself out, probably because he was gassed. Carson is a better runner than Davis and definitely better as a bruiser/goal line back, I highly doubt Mike Davis will be the goal line back a la Blount and snake all the TDs going forward. 

 

i have no opinion on production going forward because it's been unpredictable for 5 games. I'm awaiting the trend of distribution between the 2 rbs, currently it stands at 60/40 which is flex material.

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Carson didn't drive them all the way down the field on that TD drive by Davis by the way. Mike Davis had a 9 yard catch on that drive. And Carson had a couple nice carries on the drive that shouldn't have "gassed" him. RW did the rest of the work. I believe Carson took himself out because he was in pain and not gassed. But if he was gassed that is definitely a concern. It was early in the game and he didn't play the previous week.

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4 hours ago, CraftyRighty said:

 I cannot afford to be on the end of a 5 point game from my RB2, that is all I am saying

 

looking better and more reliable than Jordan Howard, Alex Collins, Kenyan Drake, Lamar Miller ----

 

you could do worse for your RB2 than Carson.

 

09092018_carsonjump_142754-1020x680.jpg

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17 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

 

 

Pretty low floor and ceiling. Milestone hit by Carson today best game by a seahawks RB since 2015. Definitely a drop. Lol. 

The touches/production were encouraging, so I'm certainly happy with that. He's in a 60/40 split with a guy with a career YPC of 3.3, so I'm not sure if I'm THAT excited just yet. 

Edited by BGDDYKWL

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2 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

The touches/production were encouraging, so I'm certainly happy with that. He's in a 60/40 split with a guy with a career YPC of 3.3, so I'm not sure if I'm THAT excited just yet. 

I wouldn't say he's in a 60/40 split.  Carson had 12 of the first 14 carries.  Davis ended the first half with only 4 carries, which to me means their top RB without a doubt is Carson and they will get Carson his touches.  We also have to keep in mind as well that Carson is coming off of an injury that ruled him out for a week, so that could have had an effect as far as being tired and/or them giving Davis the ball to protect Carson. These tell me it's closer to a 70/30 split than just the game stats would imply.  It'll be curious to see how it ends up this upcoming week, but Carson is def still not a top 20 RB.  But with 1 or 2 encouraging games he very well might be soon.  

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5 minutes ago, dams513 said:

I wouldn't say he's in a 60/40 split.  Carson had 12 of the first 14 carries.  Davis ended the first half with only 4 carries, which to me means their top RB without a doubt is Carson and they will get Carson his touches.  We also have to keep in mind as well that Carson is coming off of an injury that ruled him out for a week, so that could have had an effect as far as being tired and/or them giving Davis the ball to protect Carson. These tell me it's closer to a 70/30 split than just the game stats would imply.  It'll be curious to see how it ends up this upcoming week, but Carson is def still not a top 20 RB.  But with 1 or 2 encouraging games he very well might be soon.  

 

60/40 split is touches = targets+carries. 

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

60/40 split is touches = targets+carries. 

I can't imagine the touch difference is too much different compared to the carries considering carson had 1 catch and davis had 2, but I could be wrong

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