Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

[dashoe 6,449]

5 minutes ago, dams513 said:

I can't imagine the touch difference is too much different compared to the carries considering carson had 1 catch and davis had 2, but I could be wrong

 Why would you need to imagine?

it's  maths dude 34 touches 20carcon  vs 14 davis with a touch of rounding. . .

[dams513 94]

25 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 Why would you need to imagine?

it's  maths dude 34 touches 20carcon  vs 14 davis with a touch of rounding. . .

Lol I would need to imagine because your talking about targets and I didn't want to look them up lol I only knew the catches and carries.

 

And yes, by end of the game it was about 60-40.  But you do need to take into account that Carson got all his carries early, while Davis had his late and that Carson is coming off an injury which made him miss a game. This fits a lot of likely narratives including worries about his injury, thus lowering his workload in the second half or maybe him just getting tired etc etc.   Based on that, you can make the case that in the future Carson will likely have a higher percentage

[Even_More_Guruist 33]

19 minutes ago, dams513 said:

Lol I would need to imagine because your talking about targets and I didn't want to look them up lol I only knew the catches and carries.

 

And yes, by end of the game it was about 60-40.  But you do need to take into account that Carson got all his carries early, while Davis had his late and that Carson is coming off an injury which made him miss a game. This fits a lot of likely narratives including worries about his injury, thus lowering his workload in the second half or maybe him just getting tired etc etc.   Based on that, you can make the case that in the future Carson will likely have a higher percentage

 

I think that is solid reasoning.  In a typical 60/40 split rbbc there wouldn't be such a touch discrepancy at the half.  Good catch, I think that bodes well for Carson.

[nonstopfan 4,356]

Even if Mike Davis eats into some of his carries, it looks like the Seahawks have transformed their offense to smash-mouth which means tons of carries to go around.

 

Quote

The Seahawks have thrown the ball just 42.93 percent of the time over the last three weeks.

That's dead last in the pass-happy NFL. It's affecting Doug Baldwin in a big way, as he has just nine targets in three games and has turned those into six catches for 42 scoreless yards. Russell Wilson attempted just 21 passes last week in a shootout against the Rams, and it's having a big drain on his numbers as well. Wilson is currently the fantasy QB19 and isn't being allowed to scramble as much as years past. Meanwhile, Baldwin is growing increasingly frustrated and says his balky knee isn't to blame. After a one-catch for one-yard afternoon on one target against L.A., it's really hard to trust Baldwin in fantasy.

 

 

Source: Seattle Times

Oct 9 - 10:01 PM

 

[cpc115 25]

$200 FAAB limit. I had $193 left and found Carson. Spent $93 on him and kept $100 left for the rest of the year. 

 

Did I overbid to get him? How many more weekly RB2/Flex can be found between now and fantasy playoffs? I call him weekly RB2/Flex thinking he has a 15 touch floor. Did I make a good move?

[1972Miamidolphins 1,187]

6 hours ago, cpc115 said:

$200 FAAB limit. I had $193 left and found Carson. Spent $93 on him and kept $100 left for the rest of the year. 

 

Did I overbid to get him? How many more weekly RB2/Flex can be found between now and fantasy playoffs? I call him weekly RB2/Flex thinking he has a 15 touch floor. Did I make a good move?

We won't know til week 16, but it's a logical move, my worry is still Carroll, knowing my luck, blows up on the bench, then when I start him, penny gets the nod

[Zekepeak86 1,468]

2 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

We won't know til week 16, but it's a logical move, my worry is still Carroll, knowing my luck, blows up on the bench, then when I start him, penny gets the nod

Penny shouldn't start unless an injury occurs from here on out. Pete carroll as crazy as he is doesn't want to lose games just to lose games. He has 2 guys rushing very well and im sure he sees when carson is healthy and gets touches the dude performs and looks good doing it. I think in London against a poor rushing defense, this is a perfect match up.

[dashoe 6,449]

8 hours ago, cpc115 said:

$200 FAAB limit. I had $193 left and found Carson. Spent $93 on him and kept $100 left for the rest of the year. 

 

Did I overbid to get him? How many more weekly RB2/Flex can be found between now and fantasy playoffs? I call him weekly RB2/Flex thinking he has a 15 touch floor. Did I make a good move?

 

 I spent $43/100 FAAB on Carson which means nothing FAAB is there to be spent.  Over biding is relative to the next best bid in your league meaning if you spent 93 and the next best bid was $23 then you severely overbid. 

Carson is a flex for me in a thin rb mkt.

Positives are SEA has a positive trend to their running game which I am currently attributing more to the o-line improvement vs the rb play

Carson  and Davis  each had a  1/5 of a big game in the bellcow role and carson+davis each has a good game in a 60/40 split.  Neither rb are exceptional talents and their performances are similar.  Carson being a more physical runner and davis being a better pass catcher.  Both have  flex value with upside if the 60/40 split continues and the o-line continues to improve.

[Sack Exchange 940]

4 hours ago, Zekepeak86 said:

 I think in London against a poor rushing defense, this is a perfect match up.

 

have no hesitations in starting carson, however a london game and jet lag can wear down an RB just as much as a defense.

 

not sure, but i believe this may be chris carson's first time flying to europe. let's hope the out of shape defensive linemen are at more of a disadvantage than the tip top shape carson.

 

expect to see carson get air often

 

[dashoe 6,449]

Quote

Coach Pete Carroll said Penny's response to being an afterthought is what he expects from a competitor.

 

"He's handling it but he's frustrated and that's exactly what I want," Carroll said, via ESPN.com. "I want him to be frustrated, I want him to be anxious to get out there, I want him to be unsatisfied with what's going on right now. That's fine. I think that's the only way he should be. He's classy and he's for the team and every time he would say anything, he would always talk about the team first so he's got his priorities in line and I expect him to keep battling."

 

"He's just looking for his opportunity," Carroll said of Penny. "He's dying to get in there. He's just scratching, clawing to get back out there and get more turns. There just wasn't enough [opportunities], but this is a long season, there's a lot of carries, there's a lot of running to be done. I can't wait to see him get in there and get going too."

 

 

This is why I hate Petey Boy Carroll coach speaking about players to the media. . . he always leaves open a massive door of doubt concerning his personnel moves.

[owenmills 4,192]

Yeah but that's why we know to completely ignore basically everything Pete says. Has the dude ever been critical of a player? I bet if he saw some guy running down the street with his tv he'd give it a positive spin somehow

[Rizzle630 107]

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/10/10/17960248/chris-carson-seahawks-stat-ranking-rushing-running-backs-isaiah-crowell-yards-after-contact-nfl-2018

[Even_More_Guruist 33]

Anyone think the Raiders go up quick and make Willson throw the ball more then the Seahawks have the last 3 week?

[MJJ28 984]

37 minutes ago, Even_More_Guruist said:

Anyone think the Raiders go up quick and make Willson throw the ball more then the Seahawks have the last 3 week?

 

The raiders are horrible so no, that's not something I would expect to happen.

[Luckystrike7 5]

I dropped Carson one week too soon... frustrating watching him score RB1 production for someone else.  

[dashoe 6,449]

14 hours ago, Even_More_Guruist said:

Anyone think the Raiders go up quick and make Willson throw the ball more then the Seahawks have the last 3 week?

 

 

The Raiders have been the worst at playcalling and execution so far  and their defense can't hold a lead 

[HBEACH 49]

14 hours ago, Even_More_Guruist said:

Anyone think the Raiders go up quick and make Willson throw the ball more then the Seahawks have the last 3 week?

 

I can see the Raiders taking a early lead I just don’t know if it would be big enough to alter Seattle’s game plan. Seattle will throw more than they have the previous three weeks regardless of score. 

[nonstopfan 4,356]

What is this narrative that I keep hearing about the Raiders taking the early lead? Maybe, I'm missing something here.

Edited October 14, 2018 by nonstopfan

[brosephd 901]

disappointing

[dams513 94]

What are your thoughts on Carson after this game :/

[Zekepeak86 1,468]

7 minutes ago, dams513 said:

What are your thoughts on Carson after this game :/

Considering they were up all game I’d expect him to see 20+ carries. Disappointed but I won by so much this week idc lol. The script was perfect for him, and I guess all rbs to get involved which they did so it’s typicall rbbc

[dams513 94]

5 minutes ago, Zekepeak86 said:

Considering they were up all game I’d expect him to see 20+ carries. Disappointed but I won by so much this week idc lol. The script was perfect for him, and I guess all rbs to get involved which they did so it’s typicall rbbc

Yea, I'm thinking that potentially since the game was 100% over, they just gave it to Penny to save Carson a bit more.  But kinda worries me, just don't know how much I should be worried.  

[nonstopfan 4,356]

8 minutes ago, Zekepeak86 said:

Considering they were up all game I’d expect him to see 20+ carries. Disappointed but I won by so much this week idc lol. The script was perfect for him, and I guess all rbs to get involved which they did so it’s typicall rbbc

 

All Penny carries came with game well out of hand. This is not that type of RBBC. Look at play by play game summary instead of box score.

[nonstopfan 4,356]

22 minutes ago, dams513 said:

What are your thoughts on Carson after this game :/

 

You really had to watch the game. Carson had a TD called back due to penalty and it moved the ball off of the one yard line and the Seahawks went to passing after that.

 

There was another drive with the ball inside the five and they had an illegal motion penalty or False Start which changed the outlook of that drive.

Edited October 14, 2018 by nonstopfan

[Bryce84 113]

I'm pretty happy with what I saw, he looked the best by far of the Seattle RBs imo.  He had some nice early runs called back by penalty, and other goal line situations stifled due to penalties pushing them into passing situations.  I expected more but if you watched the game there were other factors in play and yeah they gave Penny some run at the end when the game was decided.