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Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook

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i'm expecting 3 weeks at a minimum at this point.  can't imagine they even let him see the field at this point until he is absolutely 100% recovered from the hammy

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1 minute ago, Panthor said:

i'm expecting 3 weeks at a minimum at this point.  can't imagine they even let him see the field at this point until he is absolutely 100% recovered from the hammy

 

That puts him back Week 8. Their bye is Week 9. So, they'd likely not even bother bringing him back then. They'll likely wait until Week 10.

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26 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

What's his ADP looking like for 2019? :lol:

 

After rotoworld hypes him (and other undeserving RBs) up in an attempt to find the next RB1 he'll go in next late first, early second round again. 

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On 6/20/2018 at 9:01 AM, OBJfor6 said:

This thread is filled with delusions. LF confirmed the two major concerns people had of him coming out of college: his inability to stay healthy, and his inability to create for himself. His inability to stay healthy is self-explanatory. His inability to create for himself is due to his lack of lateral agility - he can't make defenders miss, and he isn't even good at cutting into running lanes. He relies purely on straight line speed and strength, which makes him too one-dimensional and is the reason he was inefficient last year (3.79 YPC, including playoffs). 

 

Here is the most egregious example of what I am talking about:

 

Most people saw this and thought, "Haha, LF is a beast, look at how cool and cocky he is. I love him." I too thought it was pretty cool watching it live, until after daring the safety (who is smaller, btw) to come hit him in a 1-on-1 situation, the safety cut under LF like he was swiss cheese. That's because the only thing LF can do in space is lower his head. Defenses know that, so all they have to do is get under him, and he's done.

 

Like I said, this is the main reason he was inefficient last year (3.79 YPC). Although I normally don't like the, "if you remove these runs" argument, I think this is the most applicable example to do so, as LF's 75 and 90 yard runs last year were gift-wrapped to him. They were huge holes that he just had to run straight through, holes that anyone with 4.5 speed or better would have also easily scored on, luckily far back enough on the field to boost his yardage totals. I view them as more random than anything else, which is why I think this is an exception where you CAN use the normally flawed, "if you take away these runs" argument. So, take away those 2 runs, and you are left with an abysmal 3.32 YPC. 

 

Now, for those that see a silver-lining in the Andrew Norwell signing, I would remain cautious. There is no doubt that Norwell is a fantastic addition to the Jags offensive line, but something you will probably never hear from anyone else is how big of a mistake it was to let Marcedes Lewis go. He was PFF's #1 run blocking TE last year, and they replaced him with pass-catching TEs (ASJ, Niles Paul) who can't block. Norwell will help the interior of the line a lot, but we will see LF have less success bouncing runs to the edge without Marcedes Lewis.

 

Also, to the guy comparing LF's weight loss to LeVeon - LF played at 228 last year, and he's trying to play at 223-224 this year. That's a 4-5 pound difference. A handful of RBs try to cut small amounts of weight like that every year. LeVeon completely changed his body by dropping 20 lbs. This is, in no way, a comparable situation.

 

This is all coming from someone who thought he was a generational talent coming out of the draft last year, as I felt his size/speed combo was so good that his weaknesses didn't matter. For those fawning over his two top MPH speeds, it isn't something that we didn't already know. I posted something on his thread last year that showed that since trackers were implemented in helmets in 2015 in both college and pro football, LF recorded the second highest speed ever, behind Tyreek Hill (22.90 MPH vs. 23.24 MPH). 

 

With that being said, if his health holds up (pretty big if, in my opinion), he will still be able to return value on sheer volume alone (but probably equal to his cost - I don't see much upside). However, for those saying he is a "cheaper Zeke" and is about to have a "Todd Gurley" season, you are flat-out wrong.

 

LF averaged 21.125 carries per game last year (including playoffs) vs. Zeke's 24.2. Despite Zeke receiving ~3 more carries per game (usually decreases efficiency), his 4.06 YPC beat LF's 3.79 YPC. Zeke's longest run of the year was also only 30 yards, as he didn't get any lucky 75+ yard TDs that he didn't need to create. LF was still a decent amount less efficient, on less carries, even if you let him keep his random runs. Take them away (again, 3.32 YPC), and he's not even in the same class as Zeke - or really, any of the good RBs in the league.

 

For the "Todd Gurley" season, just stop. Gurley average 4.7 YPC last year. LF averaged over 4.5+ YPC in only two games last year. Which two games, you might ask? You guessed it - they were his 75-yard and 90-yard run games. Furthermore, he averaged less than 4 YPC in 11 of his 16 games. He's also nowhere near the same receiver as Gurley, and nowhere near in as good of an offense for TD chances.

 

If you want to bet on LF's health and hope that he holds up enough to return you his draft cost and not much more, go ahead. I'll be taking the opposite, free bet by grabbing T.J. Yeldon for nothing (he's going undrafted on FFC), who is a clear RB2-level handcuff with legitimate RB1 upside.

 

Long post and you got flamed for it when you made it, but this post is aging VERY well right now. 

 

Won't even quote the horrible posts around it that aged like spoiled milk lol

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53 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

This would be every Fournette owner's worst nightmare:

https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2018/10/1/17923046/leonard-fournette-injury-jaguars-injured-reserve

 

If this happened, I don't think any of us that were still able to make the playoffs without him could really even trust to put him back in the lineup at that point. I do agree with one part though, I don't expect him back until after their bye at the earliest.

 *shivers*

 

its a bit presumptuous at this point..it would be just awful. 

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 *shivers*

 

its a bit presumptuous at this point..it would be just awful. 

 

i'd rather they did put him in IR, at least then i can drop him, better than having to burn a roster spot if he is going to be out that long anyways

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2 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

i'd rather they did put him in IR, at least then i can drop him, better than having to burn a roster spot if he is going to be out that long anyways

IR is 8 weeks so I’ll hold out hope until we get actual news.  

Edited by Impreza178

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1 minute ago, Tyler Durden said:

Jags beat writer:

 

Doug Marrone said he doesn’t know how long Leonard Fournette will be out. He’s still feeling something in the hamstring that’s pulling/catching. #Jaguars

2:44 PM · Oct 1, 2018

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/danielrpopper/status/1046833356611182593?s=19

 

 

no bueno

 

 

Image result for laughing then crying gif

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So Marrone says they are unsure how many games Fournette misses but it will be at least 2...GREAT

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40 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Jags beat writer:

 

Doug Marrone said he doesn’t know how long Leonard Fournette will be out. He’s still feeling something in the hamstring that’s pulling/catching. #Jaguars

2:44 PM · Oct 1, 2018

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/danielrpopper/status/1046833356611182593?s=19

 

 

no bueno

 

Obviously not good but it sounds like it wasn’t necessarily re-injured, more just not fully healed. 

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2 hours ago, jh83 said:

So Marrone says they are unsure how many games Fournette misses but it will be at least 2...GREAT

Where are you seeing that he said at least 2 weeks?

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I wouldn't mind IR. At least Yahoo would leave it alone at that point going between Out and Questionable. I'd rather just dump him on my IR. If he ends up out until after the bye I may just drop him. It's a very costly #2 draft pick, but I've survived without him and he's already cost me more than he has helped. Hopefully Yahoo removes him from the Can't Cut list. I feel like a hostage at this point. I feel good about my RB situation without him.

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1 minute ago, koreaonaboat said:

Where are you seeing that he said at least 2 weeks?

speculation but...

 

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Jaguars' HC Doug Marrone said he doesn't know how much time Leonard Fournette will miss with his latest hamstring injury. Was two full games before, and it figures to be at least that this time.

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I am not doctor but...When dealing with hamstring strains...

 

Grade 1  - Should be rested from sporting activity for about 3 weeks

Grade 2 - Injuries for a minimum of 4 to 8 weeks.

Grade 3 - Complete rupture, muscle may need to be surgically repaired (3 months)

 

So safe to say, if Leonard is dealing with a Grade 1 strain we are looking at Week 7 or 8 at best?

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2 hours ago, jh83 said:

I am not doctor but...When dealing with hamstring strains...

 

Grade 1  - Should be rested from sporting activity for about 3 weeks

Grade 2 - Injuries for a minimum of 4 to 8 weeks.

Grade 3 - Complete rupture, muscle may need to be surgically repaired (3 months)

 

So safe to say, if Leonard is dealing with a Grade 1 strain we are looking at Week 7 or 8 at best?

How safe are we to assume this is another fresh strain/re-injury rather than just being cautious with the current one?

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5 minutes ago, koreaonaboat said:

How safe are we to assume this is another fresh strain/re-injury rather than just being cautious with the current one?

 

I saw a tweet that said he had an MRI and the injury was “no worse than it was when initially injured.” 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/ESPNdirocco/status/1046838470558306305

 

You would think after 3 weeks it should look much better, so I can’t see how this is good news.

Edited by MJJ28

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15 minutes ago, jh83 said:

I am not doctor but...When dealing with hamstring strains...

 

Grade 1  - Should be rested from sporting activity for about 3 weeks

Grade 2 - Injuries for a minimum of 4 to 8 weeks.

Grade 3 - Complete rupture, muscle may need to be surgically repaired (3 months)

 

So safe to say, if Leonard is dealing with a Grade 1 strain we are looking at Week 7 or 8 at best?

 

Week 10. They won't bring him back early due to the Week 9 bye. There would be no point considering he hasn't improved from the initial injury.

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4 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

 

Week 10. They won't bring him back early due to the Week 9 bye. There would be no point considering he hasn't improved from the initial injury.

 

Yea this is what it’s gonna be in my opinion. They don’t need him.

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At this point if you drafted him in the 1st round you're most likely looking at a finish closer to last then first. I'm just going to hold onto him in the chance I end up in the sacko bowl in week 14 and he might be healthy enough to get me a win then. Pretty sad reality.

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

IR is 8 weeks so I’ll hold out hope until we get actual news.  

 

the more i think about it though it actually makes sense for them to throw him on IR at this point of the season.  he is already looking like he will miss multiple weeks.  that will push him close to the bye week for return at which point why not wait an extra game and get him 2 weeks instead of 1 addtional week with the bye week.  then we're looking at week 10,  so what is another 3 weeks?  week 13 still gives them 5 full games of a healthy fournette

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Traded for him last week.  Feels like I just showed up to a really lame party.

 

Gonna have to assume that he's out until the game following their bye (week 10) and hope that he can do something useful down the stretch.  Maybe we get lucky and he gets right sooner than that, but I'd rather him sit on his a** for a month and heal.

Edited by ragrag

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