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Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

None

1. Gurley

2. Bell

3. DJ

4. Zeke

5. Fournette

6. Kamara

7. Hunt

8. Dalvin

9. Barkley

10. Melvin

 

All those guys play 16 games. Who the hell is Jerrick McKinnon outscoring from that group??

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12 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

1. Gurley

2. Bell

3. DJ

4. Zeke

5. Fournette

6. Kamara

7. Hunt

8. Dalvin

9. Barkley

10. Melvin

 

All those guys play 16 games. Who the hell is Jerrick McKinnon outscoring from that group??

 

Cook easily, Melvin and Fournette as well. His floor in PPR will be as high as anyone not named Gurley, Barkley, Zeke or DJ.

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8 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Cook easily, Melvin and Fournette as well. His floor in PPR will be as high as anyone not named Gurley, Barkley, Zeke or DJ.

I'm not personally a big Dalvin Cook guy myself.  For his ADP and auction price, he wont likely be on many of my squads.  That being said, he's an interesting choice for you to pick out of that top 10.

 

The Vikings have had the best look at both of these players of anyone in the league.  In fact, they know McKinnon better than anyone.  Yet they jumped at the chance to invest a high pick at RB to pick up Cook.  They had no interest in waiting a year and paying McKinnon the way the 49ers did.  Maybe that's just a money thing, but I know it has to have something to do with McKinnon as a player.  I'd be surprised if the backup RB that they let go outperforms the lead back.

 

As far as Melvin and Fournette go, I have a hard time picturing McKinnon outscoring either of these guys.  Gordon in particular in PPR is essentially McKinnon's ceiling.  58 catches, 1500 total yards, 12 TDs.  Even that sounds like a stretch for McKinnon.  

 

Fournette isn't exactly a slouch in the receiving department either.  He's a true 3 down workhorse, and had 36 catches as a rookie.  I could easily see that number increasing.  I think this dude IS the Jax offense.  A defensive monster of a team that wants to run the ball, old school style.  They've got just enough at QB to make the offense work, but not enough to make them a passing team.  I think if healthy, he's looking at 1500 total yards, 44 receptions, and 10 total TDs.  Again, a line that I don't think fits for McKinnon.

 

The only way this dude is finishing as a top 10 RB is if he's healthy, and the dudes in front of him are not.  He's not better than any of these guys.  

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40 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

1. Gurley

2. Bell

3. DJ

4. Zeke

5. Fournette

6. Kamara

7. Hunt

8. Dalvin

9. Barkley

10. Melvin

 

All those guys play 16 games. Who the hell is Jerrick McKinnon outscoring from that group??

The four (which four?) who get hurt.  And Melvin Gordon and Dalvin Cook, regardless of health.

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2 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

The Vikings have had the best look at both of these players of anyone in the league.  In fact, they know McKinnon better than anyone.  Yet they jumped at the chance to invest a high pick at RB to pick up Cook.  They had no interest in waiting a year and paying McKinnon the way the 49ers did.  Maybe that's just a money thing, but I know it has to have something to do with McKinnon as a player.  I'd be surprised if the backup RB that they let go outperforms the lead back.

 

The only way this dude is finishing as a top 10 RB is if he's healthy, and the dudes in front of him are not.  He's not better than any of these guys.  

It is all about system fit.  Shanahan is essentially saying: "You Vikings had a diamond in the rough but did not know it.  I am going to take your player and use him properly."

 

Know who else does that quite a bit?  His initials are B.B.

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2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The four (which four?) who get hurt.  And Melvin Gordon and Dalvin Cook, regardless of health.

I didn't say anything about injury.  In fact I said the opposite.  If everyone plays 16 games....who is McKinnon outscoring?

 

You can't take 40% out of the top 10 because....injuries.  You assume the exact same injury risk with any RB you select....even McKinnon.  

 

I just addressed the idea of McKinnon versus both Dalvin and Melvin.  I wont fight you guys over Dalvin Cook.  I could see a universe where McKinnon outscores him in PPR.  Melvin Gordon though is just laughable the more I think about it.  His 2017 is essentially everything that McKinnon could aspire to be.  

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2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

It is all about system fit.  Shanahan is essentially saying: "You Vikings had a diamond in the rough but did not know it.  I am going to take your player and use him properly."

 

Know who else does that quite a bit?  His initials are B.B.

If only simply saying it would make it so.  

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33 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Cook easily, Melvin and Fournette as well. His floor in PPR will be as high as anyone not named Gurley, Barkley, Zeke or DJ.

 

7 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

The Vikings have had the best look at both of these players of anyone in the league.  In fact, they know McKinnon better than anyone.  Yet they jumped at the chance to invest a high pick at RB to pick up Cook.  They had no interest in waiting a year and paying McKinnon the way the 49ers did.  Maybe that's just a money thing, but I know it has to have something to do with McKinnon as a player.  I'd be surprised if the backup RB that they let go outperforms the lead back.

 

6 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The four (which four?) who get hurt.  And Melvin Gordon and Dalvin Cook, regardless of health.

 

I'm glad I read through ER's response before I looked like a plagiarist writing the same response.  I'm as big a fan of what Shanahan's offense can do for a RB (Alfred Morris rushed for 1600 yards and 13 TDs as a rookie; Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman both flourished at the same time in Atlanta, etc.) but McKinnon has had two chances to show lead RB qualities over the last two years, both when Peterson went down after like 3 carries in 2016, and last year when Dalvin Cook went down--that year being particularly damning, because McKinnon couldn't even beat out Raiders reject Latavius Murray.  McKinnon had 150 and 159 rushes in those two years, and compiled an overall average of 3.6 yards per carry--behind the same line that Peterson and Cook beasted behind.

 

So yeah, Shanahan's offense could do marvels for McKinnon, but his hype is just outpacing his ability.  Like if I could pay Jay Ajayi price for McKinnon, I'd be just fine with that, but I'm not paying him like LeSean McCoy--and their ADPs are currently an identical 2.09 in 12-team PPR leagues.

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8 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

So yeah, Shanahan's offense could do marvels for McKinnon, but his hype is just outpacing his ability.  Like if I could pay Jay Ajayi price for McKinnon, I'd be just fine with that, but I'm not paying him like LeSean McCoy--and their ADPs are currently an identical 2.09 in 12-team PPR leagues.

 

Ok.  You have McCoy and Cook higher in PPR.  How about Howard and Mixon?

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12 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The four (which four?) who get hurt.  And Melvin Gordon and Dalvin Cook, regardless of health.

So in your hypothetical game of who gets hurt, McKinnon is not one of them? Why not just say all 10 get hurt and McKinnon finishes #1 in points overall. 

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40 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

So in your hypothetical game of who gets hurt, McKinnon is not one of them? Why not just say all 10 get hurt and McKinnon finishes #1 in points overall. 

I was responding to a question which I understood to be: "Under what scenario could McKinnon possibly end up as the RB10 or better."

 

But I actually don't think McKinnon would need any injuries ahead of him to finish that high.  That's how much faith I have in Shanahan's system.  In my personal rankings, McKinnon is 8 spots higher than McCoy.  

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4 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Ok.  You have McCoy and Cook higher in PPR.  How about Howard and Mixon?

 

I think Mixon is probably overpaid in PPR as well; I would take McKinnon all else being equal.  I think Howard is probably being underpaid in all formats; I would take him over either of the other two as long as he costs the least of the three.

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I just noticed that JM's projection went up another 10+ points in my ESPN ppr league. I wonder where he'll end up in overall rb projections before the season starts? Seems like this thread is making some noise lol

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On 6/19/2018 at 12:37 AM, joshua18 said:

 

Cook easily, Melvin and Fournette as well. His floor in PPR will be as high as anyone not named Gurley, Barkley, Zeke or DJ.

 

very high on Jet this year ... that whole offense is so damn intriguing - and i'm falling for it.  i am believing in it.

 

i can see him over MGIII for sure ... Cook is a stretch, as is Lenny Snaps - but JM will be had cheaper - would love to pair him with any of those cats. 

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On 6/18/2018 at 11:23 PM, Experienced Rookie said:

1. Gurley

2. Bell

3. DJ

4. Zeke

5. Fournette

6. Kamara

7. Hunt

8. Dalvin

9. Barkley

10. Melvin

 

All those guys play 16 games. Who the hell is Jerrick McKinnon outscoring from that group??

well dalvin is injury prone, MG isn't that good, and he might be able to outscore barkley because it remains to be seen what he will do

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3 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

well dalvin is injury prone, MG isn't that good, and he might be able to outscore barkley because it remains to be seen what he will do

For the record, that conversation was in the context that everyone stays healthy. 

 

"Melvin isn't that good". Yeah, maybe. But he's the focal point for a good offense, is a plus receiver, and has proven to be a good RZ RB after that fluke rookie year. What Melvin did in 2017 is everything McKinnon could possibly aspire to. 

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On 6/18/2018 at 10:09 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

It is all about system fit.  Shanahan is essentially saying: "You Vikings had a diamond in the rough but did not know it.  I am going to take your player and use him properly."

 

Know who else does that quite a bit?  His initials are B.B.

Lol, I know they both flunked out of Cleveland but I'd hold back on that comparison.

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53 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Lol, I know they both flunked out of Cleveland but I'd hold back on that comparison.

I am not saying K. Shanahan has accomplished what BB has.  Obviously he needs decades of excellence and multiple championships to do that.  But they do both like reclamation projects, little used players from other teams that they can make into stars.

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27 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I am not saying K. Shanahan has accomplished what BB has.  Obviously he needs decades of excellence and multiple championships to do that.  But they do both like reclamation projects, little used players from other teams that they can make into stars.

BB doesn't overpay for them, not like Garcon and now McKinnon.

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

Damn I thought I was high on McKinnon, but people like him more than cook gordon and LF? TF? 

 

Obviously you're not high on him, then ?

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On ‎6‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 11:23 PM, Experienced Rookie said:

1. Gurley

2. Bell

3. DJ

4. Zeke

5. Fournette

6. Kamara

7. Hunt

8. Dalvin

9. Barkley

10. Melvin

 

From the list provided:

1) at their respective ADPs, I'd draft a different player/position over MGordon (health/coaching/game plan concerns + 2 other RBs on the team that can catch the ball), and DCook (not yet a yr removed from ACL surgery)...every time.

and

2) draft JMcKinnon 1-2 RDs later...if possible (2 RDs later would be pushing it with JMs current/rising ADP).

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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McKinnon isn't a top 10 RB. He was a big bargain before when he was being drafted in like the 5-6th round or whatever but those times are gone.

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I think you'll have to take McKinnon in the second round by the end of the summer if you want him.  

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