BrianM

Rex Burkhead 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

W4BBContro.gif

Belichick doesn't care about "superior player". He also doesn't care what happened last week or in April or how much money you're getting. You have to prove yourself to Bill every play. Every snap, training or game.

 

The season starts with a blank slate. It will be a committee, with quite possibly Burk a bit higher (I have no idea where to put Michel based on the pre-season).

 

Michel may well come out on top, if he works hard, is smart, keeps his mouth shut and gives 110% every snap. But Bill will never look at the depth chart and say "well he is the better player, potentially, so let's line him up Sunday".

 

(I have a feeling you meant that, I just felt like ranting a bit.)

 

Btw very few people considered Lewis the greatest talent before the 2017 season. The big talent was James White, and Lewis was the RB4 in that offense starting the season.

image.png.1cc3f0ef047d43c5a8bdd10714f968fb.png

 

What does that mean for Burk? He needs to earn it again this year and he stays on my bench this week until I see more.

What a preposterous post. Of course Belichick plays the superior player. That's literally what his career has been built upon. Casting aside overrated stars or players past their prime for guys on the roster who could perform their job better. And nobody considered James White the top talent in the Pats' backfield last year. That is totally absurd. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

 

Dropping Burkhead already is just silly.

 

He's lying. He's been touting Jeremy Hill on the bench... why would you drop Burk and yet call some others to stash Jeremy Hill?

 

Makes no sense this early in the season considering week 1 hasn't even started...

 

Some lies are just way over the top.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BB does not trust rookie rbs to play significant snaps. He will work them in. He won’t trust a rookie to protect his prize Brady. So I don’t think Sony will do half of what some people expect him to do this year. If Rex can stay healthy, I believe he will be huge for us that drafted him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Raynestorm said:

BB does not trust rookie rbs to play significant snaps. He will work them in. He won’t trust a rookie to protect his prize Brady. So I don’t think Sony will do half of what some people expect him to do this year. If Rex can stay healthy, I believe he will be huge for us that drafted him. 

 

Well i drafted both Sony and Burk (RB39 and RB25) respectively. While I dont believe in handcuffing, In the second half of the season, both might have value.

 

Sony was too expensive earlier in the season and got very cheap late into week 1 (if you drafted late)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

Calling Michel a "solid" back in college is pretty disrespectful. And you cherry picking yardage totals to discredit him is a straw argument. Everyone knows he split time with other talented backs in college. I agree he didn't put together a dominant resume over 4 years. But when he touched the ball he often dominated on a per touch basis.

 

7.9 yards per carry in his final season. 16 TD's on only 156 carries. He also had a college-career average of 3.3 yards after contact, and 127 broken tackles on 592 carries. Those are all elite numbers. I also fully agree with you, Michel will not be handed the starting job. I have not said he will be a workhorse either. I do believe he will pace the team in touches when the season wraps up. As he is the by far the most talented back on the roster. This isn't like a rookie pass-rusher or TE, Michel will be ready to go soon.

He was a 1B back with Chubb, that's not disrespectful, that's fact. I'm not saying he was average, he was (IS) good, but it's to be determined if he can be as good when Chubb isn't wearing the defense down. He had three 100 yard rushing games his senior year. He had three 100 yard rushing games his junior year. He had four his sophomore year where his legend started and seems to have stuck. He's a solid back....when Chubb went down & he was the main RB for UGA, he was unimpressive to average for an SEC RB - that's a fact. The stats speak for themselves.

 

Benny Snell Jr for UK had 7 just last year,  his freshman year including a 200+ game (which Michel has none of)....the best thing about Michel is the lack of wear & tear on his body in combination with his ability & talent. I get that but he's boom or bust by definition....go look at his game long at UGA & you will see. I don't think you have or you wouldn't be so defensive.  He can't catch for s---, he disappears against tough D's and wracks up yards against the horrible defenses. I see a lot of bust material but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

Compare Michel's college stats to Burkhead's.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sony-michel-1.html

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/rex-burkhead-1.html

 

You tell me which 'dominated' in college against top competition.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the record, I am not arguing that Rex Burkhead is a better RB than Michel...I am simply stating that he is the veteran in a veteran-friendly offense with a veteran-favoring coach.  Burkhead is healthy, Michel is not & it will be at least Week 6-8 before Michel gets enough touches to surpass Burkhead on the fantasy depth chart & that's only if he flashes & Burkhead crashes. 


If NE is efficient and winning games with Burkhead doing well, that will be what they do indefinitely & mix Michel in more and more as he gets healthier....I do think Michel will get more share as the season goes on which is why I'm planning on dangling Burkhead as trade bait the day after he has a good game, preferably BEFORE Week 6-8. 

 

Michel is the dynasty/keeper guy obviously but he hasn't shown anything yet. Burkhead is better than he gets credit for but needs to stay healthy himself....lots of questions in Pats backfield, as usual.

 

Stay tuned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, RoboFroogs said:

I own shares of Burkhead, Michel, and Hill... begrudgingly drafted Burkhead in the 7-9th round; actually just straight up dropped him in one league to make room for a higher upside stash. This thread is as good as any to discuss the Pats backfield. IMO try to sell him if he has a good game this week; that is what I plan on doing. 

 

If only they had a big power back on the roster to wear defenses down...B)

 

I think you guys are crazy if you are expecting Burk to have 200+ touches this year; I viewed him as a guy you get if you needed a week 1 starter. But "bellcow"/focus of the offense? What? That reeks of misdirection.

You're posts are ridiculous. Rex and Lewis had standalone value last season before Burkhead got injured. Were you not paying attention? 

 

Selling Rex after one good game will be a mistake. I'll bet on that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, wayzupusc said:

He was a 1B back with Chubb, that's not disrespectful, that's fact. I'm not saying he was average, he was (IS) good, but it's to be determined if he can be as good when Chubb isn't wearing the defense down. He had three 100 yard rushing games his senior year. He had three 100 yard rushing games his junior year. He had four his sophomore year where his legend started and seems to have stuck. He's a solid back....when Chubb went down & he was the main RB for UGA, he was unimpressive to average for an SEC RB - that's a fact. The stats speak for themselves.

 

Benny Snell Jr for UK had 7 just last year,  his freshman year including a 200+ game (which Michel has none of)....the best thing about Michel is the lack of wear & tear on his body in combination with his ability & talent. I get that but he's boom or bust by definition....go look at his game long at UGA & you will see. I don't think you have or you wouldn't be so defensive.  He can't catch for s---, he disappears against tough D's and wracks up yards against the horrible defenses. I see a lot of bust material but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.


I agree with most of what you've said here, but wanted to add one little tidbit on Michel mostly in response to some other posters: he is definitely a rookie, but those using the argument that Bill wouldn't risk Brady back there with him are probably wrong - Michel was widely believed to be the best pass-blocking back in the draft this year. He's also a serviceable receiver, though I doubt that he'll be getting a ton of usage in that role in NE. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

What a preposterous post. Of course Belichick plays the superior player. That's literally what his career has been built upon. Casting aside overrated stars or players past their prime for guys on the roster who could perform their job better. And nobody considered James White the top talent in the Pats' backfield last year. That is totally absurd. 

THANK YOU! Last year everyone was on board the Gilly train. He was a 4th-5th round pick. Although, I do recall people saying the "real" steal is James White. I feel this thread is on crazy pills. I cannot believe people think that Rex Burkhead is better than Michel or Hill. Just look at the Gilly usage last year before he started fumbling and getting stuffed at the line; he had 33 attempts in the first two games. Then he had 12-15 attempts per game until they finally gave up on him a few weeks later. They are definitely trying to get a power run game going. Hill is going to get his touches until he fumbles or can't get it done. 

 

That said, I think Rex is a solid flex for the first few weeks. But I think all of you are underestimating Hill's role.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

 And nobody considered James White the top talent in the Pats' backfield last year. That is totally absurd. 

 

 

This.  haaaa.....nooooobody has ever thought that.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

 Hill is going to get his touches until he fumbles or can't get it done. 


So... like 2nd quarter of Game 1?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The people discrediting Burkhead failed to watch him play in this offense last season. I don't see Michel filling the Dion Lewis role early on at all. I think people need to realize that both White and Burk have a role in this offense and where Burk is going to excel, at least early on, is taking the majority of the 2017 Lewis snaps.

 

I look at Michel being the "Corey Clement Week 1 type of back" until something changes.

 

 

 

Edited by nonstopfan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DekuTree said:


So... like 2nd quarter of Game 1?

 

Yes, he fumbled 8 times in his first 487 touches (2015-16), but he's only fumbled once in his last 284 touches (2017-18). I know you're trying to be funny, but Hill has improved his ball security as his career has progressed. 

 

2015: 5 fumbles in 249 touches.

2016: 3 fumbles in 238 touches.

2017: 1 fumble in 243 touches. 

2018: 0 fumbles in 41 touches. 

 

Some may laugh at this, but we know how BB loves a good career-reclamation project. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see Hill and Burkhead take on the Ingram-Kamara roles this season in NE. I'm not saying I expect it...just wouldn't be surprised if it came to be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

What a preposterous post. Of course Belichick plays the superior player. That's literally what his career has been built upon. Casting aside overrated stars or players past their prime for guys on the roster who could perform their job better. And nobody considered James White the top talent in the Pats' backfield last year. That is totally absurd. 

 

 

Hoodie plays the guy who EXECUTES BEST in his schemes not the superior talent. He has brought in plenty of 'talented' or 'superior players but the ones who take the field every Sunday are the guys who execute and don't make mistakes; the guys who make his offense work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Some may laugh at this, but we know how BB loves a good career-reclamation project. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see Hill and Burkhead take on the Ingram-Kamara roles this season in NE. I'm not saying I expect it...just wouldn't be surprised if it came to be.



Fair enough, but I still just don't see how people keep trying to reduce this backfield to a 'lead dog' or a typical 'two-back' scenario. New England has never and most likely will never run with that few running backs, they just don't. It has been and will always be a platoon, and for the most part people are going to relegated to their roles. 

Burkhead will get most of the early down plays between the 20s with a good split of carries and catches
Hill will most likely be the red-zone and goal-line back
White will play 3rd downs, pass plays, and will most likely play out wide with other RBs on the field on a lot of plays
Michel will move along slowly and then probably start cutting into both Burkhead and Hill's carries by midseason until they figure out the preferred way to deploy him

Unless there are major injuries, almost all of them will see playing time every week until one of them Fs up and Bill sticks them in the doghouse or starts making them inactive for specific game plans any given week. 
With the New England backfield, it's never going to be a matter of who's getting the most touches. It's going to be a matter of who is doing the most with the touches they get that decides the value here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's what's happened in this thread.   I can't believe you think this, you're so dumb.  I think this way and I'm right.  How can you believe it any other way?  Guys, nobody knows what's going to happen.  Chances are the hoodie doesn't even know.  What we know right know about Burkhead is that he did well in the time he had last year.  There are talks that he is meant to play a vital role in the offense this year.   Burkhead does have value as a fantasy player for 2018 and we will all see how it plays out.  At worst he's a solid flex/bye week filler, at best he's an RB1, chances are it will fall somewhere between the two.  There it is, no use arguing about what's actually going to happen because not one of us really knows anything more than anyone else.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DekuTree said:



Fair enough, but I still just don't see how people keep trying to reduce this backfield to a 'lead dog' or a typical 'two-back' scenario. New England has never and most likely will never run with that few running backs, they just don't. It has been and will always be a platoon, and for the most part people are going to relegated to their roles.

 

That simply is not accurate. 

 

2000: Two-back scenario...Kevin Faulk with 215 touches, JR Redmond with 145. 

2001: Lead dog...Antowain Smith with 306 touches. 

2002: Lead dog...Smith with 283 touches. 

2003: Two-back scenario...Faulk with 226 touches, Smith with 196 touches. 

2004: Lead dog...Dillon with 360 touches.

2005: Lead dog...Dillon with 231 touches, a couple of guys with 76-80 touches. 

2006: Two-back scenario...Dillon with 214 touches, Maroney with 197. 

2007: Three-headed backfield...Maroney with 189 touches, Faulk with 109 touches, Morris with 91 touches. 

2008: Two-back scenario...Sammy Morris with 173 touches, Faulk with 141 touches. 

2009: Lead dog (sorta)...Maroney with 208 touches, no one else with more than 100 (though Faulk had 99). 

2010: Two-back scenario...Green-Ellis with 241 touches, Woodhead with 131 touches.

2011: Three-headed backfield...Green-Ellis with 190 touches, Woodhead with 95 touches, Ridley with 90.

2012: Lead dog...Stevan Ridley with 296 touches.

2013: Two-back scenario...Ridley with 188 carries, Blount with 155.

2014: Mish-mash based on health and effectiveness (Vereen with 148 touches, Ridley 98, Gray 90, Blount 64...no one with even 100 carries).  

2015: Lead dog (sorta)...Blount with 171 touches, no one else with 90 touches...a couple with 80-85. 

2016: Lead Dog...Blount with 306 touches.

2017: Mish-mash based on who was healthy and effective. 


The bottom line is that it isn't remotely accurate to say that NE has never had a lead dog or two-back scenario...or that it has been and always will be a platoon. Just not accurate at all. There is plenty of evidence over the course of BB's HC career in NE that proves otherwise, including Blount just two years ago. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

The bottom line is that it isn't remotely accurate to say that NE has never had a lead dog or two-back scenario...or that it has been and always will be a platoon. Just not accurate at all. There is plenty of evidence over the course of BB's HC career in NE that proves otherwise, including Blount just two years ago. 


So in the past decade (since the game has changed dramatically in the past 20 years), 4 have been decidedly run by platoons, and almost every other year there have been at least 2 other backs on the roster who have approached 100 touches (almost all of them between 85-100). Even most of the years you declare a lead back there have been multiple other running backs combining for more touches than the supposed lead dog. It's to the point that I would argue that the years they had 1-2 main backs were actually the exception to the rule rather than the standard, considering the years following they drafted or brought multiple backs into the system. 

 

I appreciate the effort you put into the stats, as I do find it helpful to see it all listed. But I think if anything it just reinforces my point that even when they have a focal point at the position, there are still multiple backs of value in the system. 2016 is the only real clear exception, and that year it was Blount, James White who had never seen more than 60 touches in the league in 3 years (nearly all receptions), and Dion Lewis coming off a terrible injury and 2 years on the shelf. 
 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DekuTree said:

Burkhead will get most of the early down plays between the 20s with a good split of carries and catches
Hill will most likely be the red-zone and goal-line back
White will play 3rd downs, pass plays, and will most likely play out wide with other RBs on the field on a lot of plays
 

 

What Burkhead and White bring to the table is they can be used for pass and run plays, keeping defenses honest, especially in the red zone.   I don't see that with Hill, who will likely be used when the opposing defense is not good vs the run. 

Edited by Red Dog

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Red Dog said:

 

What Burkhead and White bring to the table is they can be used for pass and run plays, keeping defenses honest.   I don't see that with Hill, who I thing will be used mostly when the opposing defense is not good vs the run. 


And that will translate to a lot of work for them early in the season while Edelman is out. I could definitely see Burkhead's workload getting curtailed by the second half of the season with the emergence of Michel and Julian coming back, but he should be a good start most weeks for the first 6 or so. Honestly I think White is going to be out there way more than most people are imagining. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DekuTree said:


So in the past decade (since the game has changed dramatically in the past 20 years), 4 have been decidedly run by platoons, and almost every other year there have been at least 2 other backs on the roster who have approached 100 touches (almost all of them between 85-100). Even most of the years you declare a lead back there have been multiple other running backs combining for more touches than the supposed lead dog. It's to the point that I would argue that the years they had 1-2 main backs were actually the exception to the rule rather than the standard, considering the years following they drafted or brought multiple backs into the system. 

 

I appreciate the effort you put into the stats, as I do find it helpful to see it all listed. But I think if anything it just reinforces my point that even when they have a focal point at the position, there are still multiple backs of value in the system. 2016 is the only real clear exception, and that year it was Blount, James White who had never seen more than 60 touches in the league in 3 years (nearly all receptions), and Dion Lewis coming off a terrible injury and 2 years on the shelf. 
 

 

I don't see how it reinforces your point. You said NE never has and never will run with either a lead-dog or two-back scenario. Even in the last 10 years, there are seven seasons that fit that definition. A lead-dog scenario, imho, is a RB who dominates the touches. A two-back scenario, imho, is two RBs who dominate the touches. It doesn't mean they get ALL the touches...but that they dominate the touches. The thing is, people keep trying to act like BB is going to always give 3-4 RBs 80-100 touches and that no RB (or two RBs) will ever dominate the touches for him. That is absolutely not based in fact. When Bill has a RB or two RBs who are good enough and reliable to dominate the touches, they will. The stats I posted proved that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NE signed Burkhead to a 3 year 10 million dollar contract last season, so I don't think he fades much as the season goes on, unless he gets hurt.  Hoody likes what he brings to the table.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Hoodie plays the guy who EXECUTES BEST in his schemes not the superior talent. He has brought in plenty of 'talented' or 'superior players but the ones who take the field every Sunday are the guys who execute and don't make mistakes; the guys who make his offense work.

 

Like who?  He usually kicks the wheels on scrubs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Red Dog said:

NE signed Burkhead to a 3 year 10 million dollar contract last season, so I don't think he fades much as the season goes on, unless he gets hurt.  Hoody likes what he brings to the table.

 

That's not really a big salary, though. James White is signed to a bigger deal, though with fewer guaranteed dollars. Burkhead is the 24th highest paid RB in the league on a per-year basis. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, DekuTree said:


So in the past decade (since the game has changed dramatically in the past 20 years), 4 have been decidedly run by platoons, and almost every other year there have been at least 2 other backs on the roster who have approached 100 touches (almost all of them between 85-100). Even most of the years you declare a lead back there have been multiple other running backs combining for more touches than the supposed lead dog. It's to the point that I would argue that the years they had 1-2 main backs were actually the exception to the rule rather than the standard, considering the years following they drafted or brought multiple backs into the system. 

 

I appreciate the effort you put into the stats, as I do find it helpful to see it all listed. But I think if anything it just reinforces my point that even when they have a focal point at the position, there are still multiple backs of value in the system. 2016 is the only real clear exception, and that year it was Blount, James White who had never seen more than 60 touches in the league in 3 years (nearly all receptions), and Dion Lewis coming off a terrible injury and 2 years on the shelf. 
 

 

Btw, I appreciate the good and civil disagreement :). Seems rare these days on the RW forums that guys can disagree without it turning into a urinating match, lol. I guess we probably look at the stats differently. Bottom line is that we'll all find out soon enough, lol. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.