BrianM

Rex Burkhead 2018 Outlook

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I'm starting to wonder why his ADP crept up pretty high toward the end of August and many competitive drafts had him going in Rounds 5/6/7. I know RB 25ish isn't that high, but I feel like if most drafted today, he wouldn't go before the Round 10 simply due to his roll. I'm sure it will change like last year, but it seems it will come at the expense of an injury

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On 9/17/2018 at 10:54 AM, RoboFroogs said:

I don't think so. Something to consider, Michel was in for only 12 plays. They featured him on all 12 of those plays for 10 attempts and 2 targets. It's only a matter of time before he takes over. Next week against Detroit might be his coming out party since they've allowed two 100 yard rushers in Crowell and Breida so far AND given up long TD runs both games.

Or or or....he might fumble

 

And then Burkhead becomes the unquestioned lead back.

 

God, if Sony were to fumble TWICE...can you imagine?

 

Dude seriously - this is the Pats backfield. This is an old song. Every year it is a jumble, and the offense is so good that there is value to be had from everyone with a decent+ share of the backfield. 

 

Make declarative statements about the Pats backfield after week 2 at your own peril.

Edited by Cotton Jones
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I’m seriously thinking of cutting Sexy Rexy ............yes, I know I’m impatient, but this Michel kid looks to be the one.....for now at least. I feel the need to start planning for bye weeks....

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13 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

Or or or....he might fumble

 

And then Burkhead becomes the unquestioned lead back.

 

God, if Sony were to fumble TWICE...can you imagine?

 

Dude seriously - this is the Pats backfield. This is an old song. Every year it is a jumble, and the offense is so good that there is value to be had from everyone with a decent+ share of the backfield. 

 

Make declarative statements about the Pats backfield after week 2 at your own peril.

Yeah, the same song and dance each year is always pick up the late round flier RB and not the guy with R3-7 ADP. Because that's how you get Gilly and Rex on your team except Rex is worse because at least Gilly won me week 1 last year. 

 

Here's what will probably happen: They're gonna split carries for a couple more weeks and Rex owners are going to hold out because he's still getting 10-12 touches and maybe he scores a TD. All of the sudden it's week 7 and you're 2-4 but you drafted Rex in R6 and you don't want to give up on him. Week 8 rolls around and you finally decide to drop him but it's too late because you wasted a roster spot on this guy for 7-8 weeks and you have 2-3 wins.

 

I've been burned so many times on the Gilly's, Burkheads, and Ridley's of the BB backfield. Not this year. I drafted him in R7 because of the "value" then cut him pretty much immediately because I have been down this road many times with the Pats. It's just not worth it. 

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I always find it comical that people are so quick to jump off a guy after 2 games into the season.  You realize we are only 1/8th of the way in with plenty more ups and downs to go.  PS... Gillislee had 4TDs through the first two games last year, had 1 the rest of the season.

 

To me its pretty simple, Brady did an interview on Monday and basically said that it was a bad game on all fronts offensively but they are trying to figure things out, improve every week and by mid to late October they should have a handle on what their team is and isn't and who their personnel and packages are going to be.  The Pats do this every year, the first few weeks of the season are a crap shoot and they don't do anything consistently from week to week, they try different packages and players see what works, adjust and move forward.  Part of that is trying out the new RB and seeing how things click with him vs White vs Rex... nothing is determined as far as roles go at this point IMO.  Last year Lewis was barely involved in the first 3 weeks, presumably easing him back in from his injury, from week 4 - 10 him and Gillislee basically split rushing touches and Lewis was the more effective runner and took over, because that what worked best for the patriots to win.

 

If you drafted Rex, White or Michel and have owned a patriots running back before, you know the ride you signed up for.  If this is your first rodeo get ready to be disappointed on two fronts, performances in games like Sunday and then a game maybe in the next two weeks where you sit him and Michel is the one that rides the pine, its just how the Pats work and don't even get me started on the fumbling.

 

Rex will have value in plenty more games this season, he will also put up a dud here or there.  The Patriots are going to play to exploit the other team and with 3 different backs all having different skill sets they are going to use the one that fits best with their scheme that week.   I'm holding on to both Rex and White till we get to weeks 4-6, at that point it will be fairly obvious to see what roles each will have and will cut bait where needed.  If Michel outperforms Rex and holds on the ball he could be the Lewis of last year, no way to predict it IMO

 

 

Edited by Flynfiesta6
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4 hours ago, djmax101 said:

 

I dropped Burkhead after this week's game. If I'm going to start a NE RB, it's going to be Michel.

who did you drop him for?

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In case you were wondering (week 2 snap %):

 

PLAYER TAR TOU YDS TDS SNAP%
James White 8 11 84 0 56
Phillip Dorsett 7 5 44 0 92
Chris Hogan 5 3 42 2 90
Cordarrelle Patterson 5 4 23 0 44
Rob Gronkowski 4 2 15 0 95
Jacob Hollister 3 3 35 0 23
Sony Michel 2 11 41 0 21
James Develin 1 0 0 0 33
Rex Burkhead 0 6 22 0 25
Dwayne Allen 0 0 0 0 21
Edited by Cotton Jones
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4 hours ago, slothfantasy said:

Holding for another week or two. In the mean time I may try and package him for a more consistent RB

Sell him now (while you can) for anything you can get -- do it before Sony runs wild vs Detroit on Sunday Night.

Maybe some sucker thinks he still holds any value.

 

Do it now.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Cotton Jones said:

Or or or....he might fumble

 

And then Burkhead becomes the unquestioned lead back.

 

God, if Sony were to fumble TWICE...can you imagine?

 

Dude seriously - this is the Pats backfield. This is an old song. Every year it is a jumble, and the offense is so good that there is value to be had from everyone with a decent+ share of the backfield. 

 

Make declarative statements about the Pats backfield after week 2 at your own peril.

 

It's not like BB has never gone with a primary back. 

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13 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

It's not like BB has never gone with a primary back. 

Yep, but they usually need to earn it.

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1 hour ago, Spina said:

Sell him now (while you can) for anything you can get -- do it before Sony runs wild vs Detroit on Sunday Night.

Maybe some sucker thinks he still holds any value.

 

Do it now.

 

If it’s that bad who you trying to get in return!?  Sounds like a drop anyway may as well keep for past production.

1 hour ago, Spina said:

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yep, but they usually need to earn it.

 

Definitely agree with that. BB doesn't hand anything to anybody. I guess this is going off-topic a bit, but this fact is why I don't have the hope for Gordon that many do. I'm not confident he'll do what it takes to earn a role as a starter in NE's offense. 

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Just now, Tghetty said:

If it’s that bad who you trying to get in return!?  Sounds like a drop anyway may as well keep for past production.

 

Thankfully had zero interest in drafting "Sexy" Rexy -- instead had the sense to draft Sony six rounds later.

 

After Sunday you'll get nothing for him in a trade.

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2 minutes ago, Spina said:

Thankfully had zero interest in drafting "Sexy" Rexy -- instead had the sense to draft Sony six rounds later.

 

After Sunday you'll get nothing for him in a trade.

 

im asking what will get for him now? Zero trade value so may as well hold... or drop

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Definitely agree with that. BB doesn't hand anything to anybody. I guess this is going off-topic a bit, but this fact is why I don't have the hope for Gordon that many do. I'm not confident he'll do what it takes to earn a role as a starter in NE's offense. 

I think it takes a year for a WR to learn that offense and get the trust. He might do great, but next year.
On the other hand, I don't think there is a better place for Gordon than in NE: a real coach, a real QB, and a club culture that is focused on constantly performing. 

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8 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Definitely agree with that. BB doesn't hand anything to anybody. I guess this is going off-topic a bit, but this fact is why I don't have the hope for Gordon that many do. I'm not confident he'll do what it takes to earn a role as a starter in NE's offense. 

 

Agreed.

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1 minute ago, Tghetty said:

 

im asking what will get for him now? Zero trade value so may as well hold... or drop

No idea -- might be some chumps in your league thinking he still has value. Send offers out. Again, work out a deal before Sunday though.

 

After that, it's a wrap -- yours for the season, wasting away a valuable bench spot.

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9 minutes ago, Spina said:

Thankfully had zero interest in drafting "Sexy" Rexy -- instead had the sense to draft Sony six rounds later.

 

After Sunday you'll get nothing for him in a trade.

 

I'll say something similar to what I said in the Michel thread. I think Michel will get 12-15 touches with 75-100 yards. However, this is NE. It would not surprise me in the least to see Michel get a handful of touches while Burk gets 20-25 touches, 120 yards, and a couple of TDs. Lol. Just when we expect BB to do one thing, he seems to turn around and troll fantasy owners. Lol. 

Edited by Flyman75
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I think what we'll see in NE's backfield is something similar to what we saw last season,  3 RB's that have value.

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Every time he gets hit it reminds me of Jack 2 getting KO’d in Tekken.

 

Some guys have a knack for

absorbing hits and kind of going limp to not sustain highest impact.

 

LeVeon Bell has it. Arian Foster had it. Tony Dorsett was the undisputed champ of it. 

 

Rex Burkhead has the opposite of that.

 

Yoshimitsu Wins

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6 minutes ago, Proteus said:

Every time he gets hit it reminds me of Jack 2 getting KO’d in Tekken.

 

Some guys have a knack for

absorbing hits and kind of going limp to not sustain highest impact.

 

LeVeon Bell has it. Arian Foster had it. Tony Dorsett was the undisputed champ of it. 

 

Rex Burkhead has the opposite of that.

 

Yoshimitsu Wins

Alvin Kamara is the best I've ever seen

It's uncanny

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5 minutes ago, Proteus said:

Every time he gets hit it reminds me of Jack 2 getting KO’d in Tekken.

 

Some guys have a knack for

absorbing hits and kind of going limp to not sustain highest impact.

 

LeVeon Bell has it. Arian Foster had it. Tony Dorsett was the undisputed champ of it. 

 

Rex Burkhead has the opposite of that.

 

Yoshimitsu Wins

 

Me Honda... :D

 

See if you can remember that. 

 

:)

 

Don't make me talk pong in black and white with the switch in the back! :D

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Man, I had to sell with how messy this backfield looks. If you can package him for a true RB2, you do it now before it's too late.

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