BrianM

Rex Burkhead 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, omnom1337 said:

 

In fairness, I actually already tried dropping Burkhead for AP literally right after the draft (it was Thursday) but the waiver claim said it wouldn't process until Sunday, so I cancelled it. If it was free agency, I'm sure he'd be snagged by now.

 

As for the 11th, yeah I think everybody in my office hates Pats RBs. I just hate them the least, apparently.

Wait, you were gonna drop Burkhead...... He’s like a top 70 pick in most leagues lmao 

Edited by BearDownBears
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35 minutes ago, BearDownBears said:

Wait, you were gonna drop Burkhead...... He’s like a top 70 pick in most leagues lmao 

 

Huh, had no idea people were so high on him. Guess it's for the best I didn't drop him!

 

I pay zero attention to the Pats backfield because I don't want to deal with that headache

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Plug Rex as your Flex or RB2 Week 1 & hope for good health.

 

You can't predict what the Pats offense will do week to week but barring injury, Rex seems like he'll produce a little something each week & have some big ones along the way.

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If he is on the field, he will average 12-15 ppg with a couple splashes of 25, no doubt. Watching the camp, reading about camp, knowing coach B in the past, Rex is going to get 5-6 catches a game without trying.

 

I think the injury thing is overblown, way overblown! I think it is a show by the Pat's to be honest. Yeah Rex is the size of my local grocery bagger who is on roids and will get banged around more than a 6'2" 210 back but he is a top 10 PPR back when on the field and for him to slide past pick 60 in a draft is criminal.

 

 

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On 8/17/2018 at 1:21 PM, dudewithabadcat said:

Burkhead can play with a bum knee.  The problem with the situation is that he is not practicing.  Read my comments in the Dion Lewis thread from last year.  In New England, the RB game is all about momentum and trust.  Burkhead has no mo'.  Michel has no mo'.  Gilly is a bum and has no mo'.  Hill is developing mo'.  White is mo'riffic right now in the air and on the ground.  At this point, not really knowing when we can expect Burkhead to develop that mo' with the team - he is late round flier / FA pickup in my eyes.  I'm eyeing White for ground and increased receiving presence in the first four weeks.  I see Hill having some serious value if he keeps the trend he is going on and would take a 8-10 round on him - if I already don't have five RBs by then.

 

Everyone thinks the Pats backfield is some mystery.  It hasn't been a mystery the past two years due to all the injuries.  In fact, due to the injuries and the timing of the players coming back in, it has been straight up easy to see what is happening.  So says the Pats fan.

 

Look into your crystal ball and tell me their 2018 end of season stats. ty.

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On 8/27/2018 at 7:24 AM, CraftyRighty said:

If he is on the field, he will average 12-15 ppg with a couple splashes of 25, no doubt. Watching the camp, reading about camp, knowing coach B in the past, Rex is going to get 5-6 catches a game without trying.

 

I think the injury thing is overblown, way overblown! I think it is a show by the Pat's to be honest. Yeah Rex is the size of my local grocery bagger who is on roids and will get banged around more than a 6'2" 210 back but he is a top 10 PPR back when on the field and for him to slide past pick 60 in a draft is criminal.

 

 

 

I'd rather a 5'10" 215 RB than a 6'2" 210 RB...thicker build. 

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On 8/27/2018 at 5:24 AM, CraftyRighty said:

If he is on the field, he will average 12-15 ppg with a couple splashes of 25, no doubt. Watching the camp, reading about camp, knowing coach B in the past, Rex is going to get 5-6 catches a game without trying.

 

I think the injury thing is overblown, way overblown! I think it is a show by the Pat's to be honest. Yeah Rex is the size of my local grocery bagger who is on roids and will get banged around more than a 6'2" 210 back but he is a top 10 PPR back when on the field and for him to slide past pick 60 in a draft is criminal.

 

 

Top 10?  Thats pretty aggressive....

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8 minutes ago, herschel said:

Top 10?  Thats pretty aggressive....

 

Not really. Pats offensive line according to PFF last year was #1 in run blocking. Add a top tier college guard in Wynn, and hopefully Cannon returning to form, no real red zone threats other than Gronk.... assuming he gets the lions share of touches which at this point right now there's no reason he shouldn't I can definitely see him top 10 easy. I feel like Michel will be eased into some pass down work, and maybe Hill or White spells him occasionally. Assuming good health that is, no reason he can't just based on volume. 

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3 minutes ago, A27K said:

 

Not really. Pats offensive line according to PFF last year was #1 in run blocking. Add a top tier college guard in Wynn, and hopefully Cannon returning to form, no real red zone threats other than Gronk.... assuming he gets the lions share of touches which at this point right now there's no reason he shouldn't I can definitely see him top 10 easy. I feel like Michel will be eased into some pass down work, and maybe Hill or White spells him occasionally. Assuming good health that is, no reason he can't just based on volume. 

simliar convo is happening in Lamar Miller thread, but top 10 means you see him finishing above at least one of these guys?  i just dont see it happening.....

 

Gurley, Bell, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley, Gordon, Hunt, Fournette, McCaffrey

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2 minutes ago, herschel said:

simliar convo is happening in Lamar Miller thread, but top 10 means you see him finishing above at least one of these guys?  i just dont see it happening.....

 

Gurley, Bell, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley, Gordon, Hunt, Fournette, McCaffrey

 

Since when has the "projected" top 10 actually finished top 10 again the following season.... oh yeah never. Obvious falls I can see are David Johnson, Kamara, Barkley and McCaffrey. Yes I can see Rex in a perfect New England world even splitting touches as long as he is their primary goal line back getting into the top 10. 

 

It's not that I'm predicting those other guys to have bad seasons, just not top 10. Lamar Miller isn't even the most exciting option in Houston's backfield and that offensive line is one of the worst in the league. 

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9 minutes ago, A27K said:

 

Since when has the "projected" top 10 actually finished top 10 again the following season.... oh yeah never. Obvious falls I can see are David Johnson, Kamara, Barkley and McCaffrey. Yes I can see Rex in a perfect New England world even splitting touches as long as he is their primary goal line back getting into the top 10. 

 

It's not that I'm predicting those other guys to have bad seasons, just not top 10. Lamar Miller isn't even the most exciting option in Houston's backfield and that offensive line is one of the worst in the league. 

the pats only top 10 fantasy rb since 2007 finish was blount in 2016 when he had 18 tds.  if you are hoping for that kind of production from burkhead, best of luck to you.  i understand the preseason projected top 10 dont finish that way, but i think calling him "top 10 easy" is a bit of a reach.  if anything, seems more like a bold prediction....

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32 minutes ago, A27K said:

 

Not really. Pats offensive line according to PFF last year was #1 in run blocking. Add a top tier college guard in Wynn, and hopefully Cannon returning to form, no real red zone threats other than Gronk.... assuming he gets the lions share of touches which at this point right now there's no reason he shouldn't I can definitely see him top 10 easy. I feel like Michel will be eased into some pass down work, and maybe Hill or White spells him occasionally. Assuming good health that is, no reason he can't just based on volume. 

wynn tore his achilles he is out for the year 

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On 8/28/2018 at 5:09 PM, A27K said:

 

Since when has the "projected" top 10 actually finished top 10 again the following season.... oh yeah never. Obvious falls I can see are David Johnson, Kamara, Barkley and McCaffrey. Yes I can see Rex in a perfect New England world even splitting touches as long as he is their primary goal line back getting into the top 10. 

 

It's not that I'm predicting those other guys to have bad seasons, just not top 10. Lamar Miller isn't even the most exciting option in Houston's backfield and that offensive line is one of the worst in the league. 

 

how would David Johnson be a "fall?" 

 

he is more likely to be the #1 RB than fall out of the top 10

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Quote

 

by RotoWire Staff
(1 hr ago) Burkhead (knee) isn't in line to play in Thursday's preseason finale against the Giants, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.

The same goes for rookie back Sony Michel (knee), but given that both have been practicing, it looks like the duo will be available for Week 1 action. Considering the Patriots' typical injury-reporting methodology, we'd expect both Burkhead and Michel to be officially listed as limited practice participants next week, and questionable designations for the team's season-opener against Houston seem probable for them. Looming roster cuts may alter the composition of the team's early-season backfield, but in any case, we'd expect Burkheads to get his share of touches out of the gate, with Jeff Howe of the Athletic suggesting that the versatile running back will be a focal point of the New England offense in 2018, notably while wideout Julian Edelman serves a four-game suspension to start the season.

 

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Grabbed Sexy Rexy in R5 as my RB2. I instantly regretted it and not really feeling it at the moment, but I figured he had more touchdown upside than other guys being drafted around him. 

 

The problem in using somewhat high draft capital on NEP RB is they are valuable, but they can easily drift away in a weeks notice. It wouldn't shock me if Burkhead led the RBs in fantasy points. But it also wouldn't surprise me if White caught 80 balls and had the most points, or Michel grabs the starting job or Hill becomes the new Gilly 

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On 7/25/2018 at 12:45 PM, parrothead said:

Unless they are losing?  Kind of saw that in my playoff loss where when trailing in Miami, I guess then he isnt the guy?  He was getting pretty consistent red-zone carries down the stretch, the last several weeks of the year, he was putting up RB1 numbers, you just never know with the Pats and thats the maddening part.  

You're referencing a game in week 14 (?) when NE had already clinched the playoffs. I'd say that a pretty small, and unique, sample size to make the generalization that he doesn't get redzone looks while they are behind.

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So because many people keep saying "you never know with the Pats backfield" etc, I decided to see what's up with the Pats backfield.

This is what happened last year:
image.png.1cc3f0ef047d43c5a8bdd10714f968fb.png

 

You can see:
- they started the season with a clear pecking order: White > Gillislee > Burkhead > White.

- when Burkhead went down, it basically became a evenly split committee:

- With Burkhead coming back, Gillislee went to the background (that was already happening) and the committee became Burkhead/Lewis/White
- When White started outperforming Burkhead, he became essentially the bellcow.

Nothing mysterious about all of this, it's just Bellichick making justified choices based on what he sees on the field (and what we all saw). He believes in having nobodies instead of stars, running them in a RBBC and seee who does best. If you own a (healthy) Pats RB, expect 50% of the time less than 50 yd, another 40% of the time 50-80, and only in very rare occasions you'll get a Sunday meatloaf. And of course, there's also a dose of rushing TDs, so your guy might get some of that (last year an even split between Burkhead, Gillislee and Lewis).

So what does that mean for Burkhead: I value him as part of a 3-4 man committee. That means out of the 2800 yards that should go to the RBs, I hope that if he stays healthy, he could get around 900 of those yards, and 4 TDs, except of ccourse nobody should expect him to stay healthy, so we're talking probably 500/2. On a weekly basis Rex should get 10 touches for 50-60 yards. Put him in your flex and hope he sees the red zone.

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7 hours ago, slothfantasy said:

You're referencing a game in week 14 (?) when NE had already clinched the playoffs. I'd say that a pretty small, and unique, sample size to make the generalization that he doesn't get redzone looks while they are behind.

First half of the game he was the guy in that role then was non existent in the second half when trailing, it was like White was the passing down back and they were in passing mode so he stayed in?  I have no idea if that will continue or what, its more of an example of the maddening life of a fantasy owner with a Patriots back and trying to figure out role and whether or not this is "their" week or "their" gameplan.   You are right in that its a small sample, and the good news is that the Patriots are a good team who are rarely behind, so most of the time he should continue his role.  The overall point was not so much a shot at Rex as much as it is just to point out the little nuances in roles that the Pats utilize.  

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How in the world do I continue getting caught up in these patriots backfield shenanigans every year.... what a headache. To be fair though out of all the patriots backs this year Rex definitely seems like the most viable, so naturally he will get benched.

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For everyone complaining about the Pats backfield, it's been relatively predictable the past few years. And Burkhead is basically Woodhead in PPR leagues. He doesn't need to touch the ball 20 times to have value. 30 yards receiving, 30 yards rushing, 5 catches, suddenly you have 11 PPR points and maybe 17 with a TD. Players that can be used 4-5 different ways will always have consistent value.

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Count me in on the Sexy Rexy bandwagon...I know it is not easy owning a Pats back, but Rex scores TDS and catch passes so I’m all in. 

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If Rex stays healthy, I'm confident he will be an RB2.  It just seems like he has the injury bug too often.

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As a Burkhead owner, I’m somewhat concerned about the backfield rotation. I think Hill is going to surprise a bunch of us and lead the time in either rushing yards or TDs, if not both. Patriots were great with a big back pounding the rock. I can definitely see Hill in the Blount role.

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