BrianM

Rex Burkhead 2018 Outlook

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Rex Burkhead (knee) isn't listed on the Patriots' Week 1 injury report.

Burkhead has practiced the last three weeks after a slight mid-August knee tear. There was some concern over his status, but this confirms he'll ready for the season. With Sony Michel (knee) questionable, Burkhead's in line for a heavy Week 1 role.
 
 
Sep 5 - 4:46 PM
 
RB2 for Week 1
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I know it's a headache and unpredictable but I went heavy on the strategy of scooping up both Burkhead/Michel in a lot of my leagues this year. I do think Bill is going to keep the team relatively run-heavy due to the Edelman suspension, Cooks gone, Brady another year older, etc. Cheap way to get rb2 numbers. 

 

There's going to be yards and td's to be had. My only worry is burkhead and michel's durability. 

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4 hours ago, Nucker101 said:

My only worry is burkhead and michel's durability. 

 

Just finished a PPR draft tonight. Got Burkhead at RB25, and Michel at RB39.

 

Wanted to go with Hill as well, but that would be an overkill haha

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4 hours ago, Szer0 said:

 

Just finished a PPR draft tonight. Got Burkhead at RB25, and Michel at RB39.

 

Wanted to go with Hill as well, but that would be an overkill haha

the beauty of it is that if one of them goes down, the other's value goes up as well. 

 

I did the same with the GB backfield to a lesser extent(Williams/Jones, but that offense is more pass-happy so I invested more with the NE duo). Still 10 TD upside in the GB offense as well though. 

 

We'll see how it plays out. 

Edited by Nucker101
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Just now, Nucker101 said:

the beauty of it is that if one of them goes down, the other's value goes up as well. 

 

I did the same with the GB backfield to a lesser extend(Williams/Jones, but that offense is more pass-happy so I invested more with the NE duo).

 

We'll see how it plays out. 

 

I have J-Will in all of my leagues. But no shares of A.Jones.

 

The reason being, A.Jones are often drafted after Michel. Around Rd9-10 in a 12 team PPR.

 

I'm chasing the upside and might be wrong... but Injuries, suspension and just A.jones being unavailable for most of the later part of the pre-season might hurt him if J-Will stays healthy

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Just now, Szer0 said:

 

I have J-Will in all of my leagues. But no shares of A.Jones.

 

The reason being, A.Jones are often drafted after Michel. Around Rd9-10 in a 12 team PPR.

 

I'm chasing the upside and might be wrong... but Injuries, suspension and just A.jones being unavailable for most of the later part of the pre-season might hurt him if J-Will stays healthy

yeah, I most play auctions so in some leagues I went heavy at WR and scooped up all 4 of them(Burk/Mich/JWill/Jones) along with a depth RB like Thompson or Coleman. 

 

In my couple of redraft leagues I only pulled it off with the NE duo. 

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56 minutes ago, Nucker101 said:

scooped up all 4 of them(Burk/Mich/JWill/Jones) along with a depth RB like Thompson or Coleman. 

how-i-look-when-i-see-an-awkward-meme_o_

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It's funny it seems in this Burkhead thread, people think James White will be irrelevant all year?  Seems to be alot of touting on Michel and Burkhead.

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13 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

It's funny it seems in this Burkhead thread, people think James White will be irrelevant all year?  Seems to be alot of touting on Michel and Burkhead.

I don't think he will be irrelevant, but it's been the same song and dance with him for a few years now: James White is the RB to own the Pats! Draft James White late and profit! And it never happens. Dude has a few good receiving games here and there and does nothing the rest of the time. I have way too many shares of Burkhead this year (only because he fell so far) and I don't even think he'll be that great. If/when Michel comes back they are going to use him. I still think people are sleeping on Hill; could very well be the Hill and Michel show in a few weeks.

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17 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

It's funny it seems in this Burkhead thread, people think James White will be irrelevant all year?  Seems to be alot of touting on Michel and Burkhead.

 

James White usually gets around 40 carries a year and has the receiving numbers of a mediocre WR3. So the concern isn't that great in that offense.

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“Burkhead is not even listed on the injury report, but Reiss contends there is "an acclimation process that still needs to take place." Perhaps he cedes more work than usual to Jeremy Hill -- Sony Michel (knee) is questionable at best -- but it would be a surprise if Burkhead does not lead New England in carries Week 1. Even so, he is a riskier than normal FLEX play.”

 

 

just when I start to feel OK about plugging him into the lineup, things like this pop up I don’t even know what that means....acclimation process? He’s been practicing for weeks. Do we really think Hill is going to carry it 20 times?

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Just now, jimithing11 said:

“Burkhead is not even listed on the injury report, but Reiss contends there is "an acclimation process that still needs to take place." Perhaps he cedes more work than usual to Jeremy Hill -- Sony Michel (knee) is questionable at best -- but it would be a surprise if Burkhead does not lead New England in carries Week 1. Even so, he is a riskier than normal FLEX play.”

 

 

just when I start to feel OK about plugging him into the lineup, things like this pop up I don’t even know what that means....acclimation process? He’s been practicing for weeks. Do we really think Hill is going to carry it 20 times?

 

u beleive rotoworld intern's opinion?

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Burkhead is definitely going to play and ball-out.  No question, however....

 

29 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

James White usually gets around 40 carries a year and has the receiving numbers of a mediocre WR3. So the concern isn't that great in that offense.

 

...not entirely buying that the past is going to dictate the Patriots future.  White has only been in the league for four years.  That is not a lot of time in the Patriots' world.  White is going to continue to establish himself like Faulk and Vereen.  Does he become more than that?  Has he already reached that level?  I don't know.  But, the league is changing, the Patriots are changing and I see White have an increasing role.  The fact is, White was just as valuable to the Patriots org last year than Dion and Burkhead from a football team perspective - Dion's presence didn't hurt White's .  From a fantasy perspective, Dion drastically reduced White's value (that White probably would not have realized, anyways) but this is a new season and White has already grown.  You will see White being a significant part of this offense and potentially affect Burkhead's value for the good or the bad. 

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Wait for Burkhead to have a good game, then sell.  He won't hold up.  

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50 minutes ago, championship or bust said:

 

u beleive rotoworld intern's opinion?

 

"acclimation period" is a quote from ESPN's reporter

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Yeah, you said a lot of stuff but it was all conjecture. I'll take four years worth of consistent stats over conjecture.

 

image.png.af658b597d9626cef6b0a4ce985debd7.png

 

Pretty consistent, but if you think he'll suddenly grow into a bigger role, I agree with you for the first four games. White is basically a backfield WR. Once Edeleman gets back, back to normal. I own White in one league, he's a nice luxury to plug in within a PPR league. But look at the stats, he's basically a WR3 (if that).

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1 minute ago, jimithing11 said:

 

"acclimation period" is a quote from ESPN's reporter

 

Read the article. The dude literally just named all their players that didn't play in the preseason and said they needed to be "acclimated". Not exactly in depth reporting.

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1 minute ago, kball09 said:

Yeah, you said a lot of stuff but it was all conjecture. I'll take four years worth of consistent stats over conjecture.

 

image.png.af658b597d9626cef6b0a4ce985debd7.png

 

Pretty consistent, but if you think he'll suddenly grow into a bigger role, I agree with you for the first four games. White is basically a backfield WR. Once Edeleman gets back, back to normal. I own White in one league, he's a nice luxury to plug in within a PPR league. But look at the stats, he's basically a WR3 (if that).

 

Go back and look at Edelman's stats over the first four years too.  They are probably significantly worse.

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4 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

I just don't trust Burkhead long-term.

 

Neither do I.  He played 10 games last season and 5 of those were fantasy viable performances. 

 

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Just now, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Go back and look at Edelman's stats over the first four years too.  They are probably significantly worse.

 

How about you do that yourself Chief, I'm not your secretary ;)

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2 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

How about you do that yourself Chief, I'm not your secretary ;)

 

 Guy went from ~70 catches over four years to 105 in a single year.   That is the Patriots Way in many cases.  2013 is also the year I drafted him as my last pick and then dropped him before the season started.

Edelman.PNG

Edited by dudewithabadcat

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2 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

Read the article. The dude literally just named all their players that didn't play in the preseason and said they needed to be "acclimated". Not exactly in depth reporting.

 

Yeah, but what does acclimated mean? Doesn't start and is eased into the game? Or barely plays more than a few snaps in the game. They are totally different.

 

I remember last year toward the end when one of the RBs would get the "nominal start" and then Burkhead/Lewis would essentially split snaps and leave White with hurry-up snaps

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5 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

J. Hill or Sony should take over as the lead.

 

I just don't trust Burkhead long-term.

Sony is a year or so away I'm from dominating backfield touches.  Hill will only be relevant vs poor run defenses.  Game 1 is the James White show imo.

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Just now, dudewithabadcat said:

 

You could just give it a glance.  Guy went from ~70 catches over four years to 105.   That is the Patriots Way in many cases.

Edelman.PNG

 

You can't fit a set of #s to fit your situation as you see fit.

 

Julian Edelman was drafted out of college as a QB converted into a WR. Yes, he was a QB at Kent State.

 

James White meanwhile was a scat-back RB sharing the load with John Clay, Montee Ball, Melvin Gordon at Wisconsin.

 

You presented an Edelman data, but how is this even correlated to White's data? They are not of the same position, not drafted out of the same situations, etc.

 

Unless you can prove its correlation via an R^2 analysis... I can only conclude that You just dont like Burkhead (and it's okay not liking him as a pick)

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