BrianM

Rex Burkhead 2018 Outlook

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Just now, RoboFroogs said:

So we're just going to forget Sony Michel exists and is better?

Is he better?? In PPR, Burkhead all day!

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6 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

Is he better?? In PPR, Burkhead all day!

Yes. He was a first round pick and arguably the best RB in the draft after Saquon. Burkhead is in his 7th year and has never had 100+ touches in a season. I would also argue Hill is better and a capable 3 down back.

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4 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

Yes. He was a first round pick and arguably the best RB in the draft after Saquon. Burkhead is in his 7th year and has never had 100+ touches in a season. I would also argue Hill is better and a capable 3 down back.


Unfortunately nothing that you believe about the three matters in the presence of the almighty Belichick overmind. But it's cute that you think Bill gives a s*** about draft position or even who's "better."

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19 hours ago, Red Dog said:

 

I don't think so.  A rookie starter in the NE system, who has missed most of camp, is an oxymoron.  I think he'll be brought along slowly, with more work in the second half of the season.   He'll be more productive next season.

A rookie  whom the Pats spent precious 1st round draft capital on. And one who dominated against top quality competition in College. He is much more talented than Rex. I like Burkheads overall game, but his usage in this offense is not going to be nearly as high as most people in this thread believe. Michel will be overtaking lead dog status sooner rather than later. 

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4 minutes ago, Jetdog16 said:

A rookie  whom the Pats spent precious 1st round draft capital on. And one who dominated against top quality competition in College. He is much more talented than Rex. I like Burkheads overall game, but his usage in this offense is not going to be nearly as high as most people in this thread believe. Michel will be overtaking lead dog status sooner rather than later. 


I was following until you mentioned 'lead dog status' in a comment about Patriots running backs... 

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8 minutes ago, Jetdog16 said:

A rookie  whom the Pats spent precious 1st round draft capital on. And one who dominated against top quality competition in College. He is much more talented than Rex. I like Burkheads overall game, but his usage in this offense is not going to be nearly as high as most people in this thread believe. Michel will be overtaking lead dog status sooner rather than later. 

 

Bro, search my comments in this thread.  You are out of your league when we are talking about the Patriots Way.  As a Patriots fan though, I hope I am wrong because I think this kid is gonna stud out - when he finally graduates from Patriots Way Academy.

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1 minute ago, DekuTree said:


I was following until you mentioned 'lead dog status' in a comment about Patriots running backs... 

I didn't say workhorse. Heres how the Patriots divided their RB touches last year:

 

Lewis 212
Gillislee 105
White 99
Burkhead 94

 

Michel will lead the team in touches this season, while Burkhead will probably be 2nd. I don't expect the team to give four backs 90+ touches like last season. Of course it's difficult to project New England's RB usage, but I am confident in Michel's talent, resume and potential within the team's offense. They are obvious SB contenders and opted to use their first pick in this past draft by addressing the RB position. Michel is not going to see 250 touches, but when the season is over he will have the most fantasy points of anyone in the backfield. 
 

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1 hour ago, reichl555 said:

Exactly.  If healthy he will be a PPR machine.  In fact I will make a prediction:  He will finish higher than CMAC in PPR leagues.

 

I love you for this post.  ?

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54 minutes ago, DekuTree said:


Unfortunately nothing that you believe about the three matters in the presence of the almighty Belichick overmind. But it's cute that you think Bill gives a s*** about draft position or even who's "better."

What makes you believe Bill would not play the superior player? This was an argument against Dion last season: James White And Burkhead were getting the job done very adequately while Dion was still getting 100%. But Dion was always clearly the superior talent and he did end up as their preferred back, doubling touches over both White and Burkhead even though he was eased into action over the first part of the season. 

 

If Sony demonstrates he is better, knows his responsibilities, and limits mistakes, he will likely finish the season the same way Dion did last year. 

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44 minutes ago, Jetdog16 said:

A rookie  whom the Pats spent precious 1st round draft capital on. And one who dominated against top quality competition in College. He is much more talented than Rex. I like Burkheads overall game, but his usage in this offense is not going to be nearly as high as most people in this thread believe. Michel will be overtaking lead dog status sooner rather than later. 

Michel was a solid back at UGA but he was also going against defenses that were worn down trying to tackle Nick Chubb too.  I think it could be argued that Michel wouldn't have had nearly as much success if he were the only RB in that offense - he was basically the COP RB in Athens most of his time there. When Chubb went down with that knee injury in 2015, Michel wasn't nearly as effective cuz opposing DC's could gameplan just for him then & most did so successfully. 

 

I wouldn't call what Michel did at UGA 'dominating' either...he only had eleven 100 yard rushing games in 4 years in Athens and most of those games came against weak defenses:
Troy

Tennessee

Kentucky (twice)

Georgia Southern

Georgia Tech (twice)

South Carolina (the year Spurrier quit mid-season) 

Vandy

Florida (their 4-7 year)

Oklahoma

 

Burkhead had ten 100 yard games his last full year at Nebraska...granted, that was 7 years ago. 

 

I agree Michel is the future at RB for the Pats but he's not going to just be handed the job because NE spent a 1st on him. He's going to have to earn it & don't forget, it's not just about running the ball...picking up blitzes is KEY and Tom Brady is who pays for those kinds of rookie mistakes. I doubt BB is going to just throw Michel out there and hope. And I don't think it will be in the first half of the season unless he really flashes something special in the first few weeks a la Alvin Kamara.

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27 minutes ago, kidsgotsoul said:

So this is how it's gonna work? Michel owners posting in here with their doomsday countdowns for Burkhead? 

I own shares of Burkhead, Michel, and Hill... begrudgingly drafted Burkhead in the 7-9th round; actually just straight up dropped him in one league to make room for a higher upside stash. This thread is as good as any to discuss the Pats backfield. IMO try to sell him if he has a good game this week; that is what I plan on doing. 

 

40 minutes ago, wayzupusc said:

Michel was a solid back at UGA but he was also going against defenses that were worn down trying to tackle Nick Chubb too.  I think it could be argued that Michel wouldn't have had nearly as much success if he were the only RB in that offense - he was basically the COP RB in Athens most of his time there. When Chubb went down with that knee injury in 2015, Michel wasn't nearly as effective cuz opposing DC's could gameplan just for him then & most did so successfully. 

If only they had a big power back on the roster to wear defenses down...B)

 

I think you guys are crazy if you are expecting Burk to have 200+ touches this year; I viewed him as a guy you get if you needed a week 1 starter. But "bellcow"/focus of the offense? What? That reeks of misdirection.

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5 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

I own shares of Burkhead, Michel, and Hill... begrudgingly drafted Burkhead in the 7-9th round; actually just straight up dropped him in one league to make room for a higher upside stash. This thread is as good as any to discuss the Pats backfield. IMO try to sell him if he has a good game this week; that is what I plan on doing. 

 

If only they had a big power back on the roster to wear defenses down...B)

 

I think you guys are crazy if you are expecting Burk to have 200+ touches this year; I viewed him as a guy you get if you needed a week 1 starter. But "bellcow"/focus of the offense? What? That reeks of misdirection.

Was Karmara “200+, bellcow” no.  Now I’m not saying Burkhead is an equal talent but it is possible to produce RB2 numbers with less than 200 carries especially when your involved in a short passing game like Burkhead is.  If he can play all 16 games this year, he will put up special numbers.

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18 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

I think you guys are crazy if you are expecting Burk to have 200+ touches this year; I viewed him as a guy you get if you needed a week 1 starter. But "bellcow"/focus of the offense? What? That reeks of misdirection.

I go touches/game & if he stays healthy (big IF), I'd agree that 200+ is being extremely generous...I expect 10-15 touches per game myself. I do not see him as a bellcow by any means, I don't think he's built for it. But in that offense 10-15 is plenty, especially if it's closer to 15 more often than not early on. 

 

And yes, I think Hill is the most overlooked one in this offense.  He's still just 25 & the only GL guy the Pats have really.

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I love how everyone just posts their opinions as if they are facts, it makes me laugh.  None of us know what Bill is going to do.  He probably doesn't even know how it's all going to play out this season, but I'll make a prediction for the the 4 RB's in NE just for the fun of it.  For the record this is an opinion, not a fact!!! :D  The Patriots will use their RB's a little more this season.  I expect about 450 carries and 150 receptions to divvy up among them.  And here's what's going to happen!  James White 40 carries 150 yards 50 catches 350 yards 3 total TD's.  Jeremy Hill 85 carries 320 yards 10 catches 60 yards 5 total TD's.  Sony Michel 150 carries 700 yards 30 catches 250 yards 6 total TD's.  Rex Burkhead 175 carries 750 yards 60 catches 500 yards 11 total TD's.  Wow that was fun!!!!

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The problem with Michel is that he is a bad fumbler--was one of the worst in college football. IF he fixes that he'll have his chance, but otherwise he will see the bench a lot.

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17 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

Was Karmara “200+, bellcow” no.  Now I’m not saying Burkhead is an equal talent but it is possible to produce RB2 numbers with less than 200 carries especially when your involved in a short passing game like Burkhead is.  If he can play all 16 games this year, he will put up special numbers.

Kamara did have 200+ touches (212) and had a historically epic season. Burkhead is JAG and will be lucky to have Woodhead type production (when he was at NE).

 

For Burkhead to approach that production he would have to:

1) Stay healthy (he's already hurt, who knows what effect it will have on him)

2) Get around 180-200 touches, which would be twice as much usage as he's EVER had a pro level

3) Beat out Hill and a healthy Michel for touches; which is possible but is it likely?

 

I still say he's a guy you trade while Edelman/Michel are out, assuming he even has good games the first four weeks.

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2 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

I didn't say workhorse. Heres how the Patriots divided their RB touches last year:

 

Lewis 212
Gillislee 105
White 99
Burkhead 94

 

Michel will lead the team in touches this season, while Burkhead will probably be 2nd. I don't expect the team to give four backs 90+ touches like last season. Of course it's difficult to project New England's RB usage, but I am confident in Michel's talent, resume and potential within the team's offense. They are obvious SB contenders and opted to use their first pick in this past draft by addressing the RB position. Michel is not going to see 250 touches, but when the season is over he will have the most fantasy points of anyone in the backfield. 
 

 

So, based off last year's figures, there are 411 touches to be divided between Burkhead, Michel and Hill. And that's assuming White gets 100 again. 

 

I don't anticipate Hill gets more than 50-75. He will be inactive some weeks. So that's about 330 touches between Burkhead and Michel. It's anyone's guess how the rest are dolled out, but Burkhead should at least get 150 carries and 40 catches. His value will likely be dependent on if he's scoring and is used near the GL

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16 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

 

Kamara did have 200+ touches (212) and had a historically epic season. Burkhead is JAG and will be lucky to have Woodhead type production (when he was at NE).

 

For Burkhead to approach that production he would have to:

1) Stay healthy (he's already hurt, who knows what effect it will have on him)

2) Get around 180-200 touches, which would be twice as much usage as he's EVER had a pro level

3) Beat out Hill and a healthy Michel for touches; which is possible but is it likely?

 

I still say he's a guy you trade while Edelman/Michel are out, assuming he even has good games the first four weeks.

200 carries I meant.  As far as health, I’ve been saying this whole time in this thread, “if he stays healthy, if he plays all 16 games”.  He can absolutely co-exist with Hill and Michel to produce.  And as far as Burkhead being “JAG” he sure didn’t look like one from weeks 10-14 last year.

Edited by reichl555

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3 hours ago, Grayson2401 said:

If Sony demonstrates he is better, knows his responsibilities, and limits mistakes, he will likely finish the season the same way Dion did last year. 

 

Except Dion and Rex are professionals, and Michel is just learning how to be one.  I can see Michel forming part of a committee in NE, but don't see him dominating the backfield this season.  I also think he'll be third in line out of the backfield for pass plays.

 

We'll see, that's why we play fantasy football.

Edited by Red Dog

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1 hour ago, jimithing11 said:

 

So, based off last year's figures, there are 411 touches to be divided between Burkhead, Michel and Hill. And that's assuming White gets 100 again. 

 

I don't anticipate Hill gets more than 50-75. He will be inactive some weeks. So that's about 330 touches between Burkhead and Michel. It's anyone's guess how the rest are dolled out, but Burkhead should at least get 150 carries and 40 catches. His value will likely be dependent on if he's scoring and is used near the GL

Uh, your math is a little off.  that equals 510 touches, not 411, so If Hill is getting between 50-75 touches, that means you anticipate between 435-460 touches among Burkhead, Michel, and for some strange reason you did not include White.  That's a lot of touches to go around still for some productive fantasy seasons

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I expect White to be used a lot on Sunday, and Michel or Hill to be inactive.

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4 hours ago, Grayson2401 said:

What makes you believe Bill would not play the superior player?

W4BBContro.gif

Belichick doesn't care about "superior player". He also doesn't care what happened last week or in April or how much money you're getting. You have to prove yourself to Bill every play. Every snap, training or game.

 

The season starts with a blank slate. It will be a committee, with quite possibly Burk a bit higher (I have no idea where to put Michel based on the pre-season).

 

Michel may well come out on top, if he works hard, is smart, keeps his mouth shut and gives 110% every snap. But Bill will never look at the depth chart and say "well he is the better player, potentially, so let's line him up Sunday".

 

(I have a feeling you meant that, I just felt like ranting a bit.)

 

Btw very few people considered Lewis the greatest talent before the 2017 season. The big talent was James White, and Lewis was the RB4 in that offense starting the season.

image.png.1cc3f0ef047d43c5a8bdd10714f968fb.png

 

What does that mean for Burk? He needs to earn it again this year and he stays on my bench this week until I see more.

Edited by Boudewijn

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3 hours ago, RoboFroogs said:

I own shares of Burkhead, Michel, and Hill... begrudgingly drafted Burkhead in the 7-9th round; actually just straight up dropped him in one league to make room for a higher upside stash. This thread is as good as any to discuss the Pats backfield. IMO try to sell him if he has a good game this week; that is what I plan on doing. 

 

If only they had a big power back on the roster to wear defenses down...B)

 

I think you guys are crazy if you are expecting Burk to have 200+ touches this year; I viewed him as a guy you get if you needed a week 1 starter. But "bellcow"/focus of the offense? What? That reeks of misdirection.

 

Dropping Burkhead already is just silly.

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5 hours ago, wayzupusc said:

Michel was a solid back at UGA but he was also going against defenses that were worn down trying to tackle Nick Chubb too.  I think it could be argued that Michel wouldn't have had nearly as much success if he were the only RB in that offense - he was basically the COP RB in Athens most of his time there. When Chubb went down with that knee injury in 2015, Michel wasn't nearly as effective cuz opposing DC's could gameplan just for him then & most did so successfully. 

 

I wouldn't call what Michel did at UGA 'dominating' either...he only had eleven 100 yard rushing games in 4 years in Athens and most of those games came against weak defenses:
Troy

Tennessee

Kentucky (twice)

Georgia Southern

Georgia Tech (twice)

South Carolina (the year Spurrier quit mid-season) 

Vandy

Florida (their 4-7 year)

Oklahoma

 

Burkhead had ten 100 yard games his last full year at Nebraska...granted, that was 7 years ago. 

 

I agree Michel is the future at RB for the Pats but he's not going to just be handed the job because NE spent a 1st on him. He's going to have to earn it & don't forget, it's not just about running the ball...picking up blitzes is KEY and Tom Brady is who pays for those kinds of rookie mistakes. I doubt BB is going to just throw Michel out there and hope. And I don't think it will be in the first half of the season unless he really flashes something special in the first few weeks a la Alvin Kamara.

Calling Michel a "solid" back in college is pretty disrespectful. And you cherry picking yardage totals to discredit him is a straw argument. Everyone knows he split time with other talented backs in college. I agree he didn't put together a dominant resume over 4 years. But when he touched the ball he often dominated on a per touch basis.

 

7.9 yards per carry in his final season. 16 TD's on only 156 carries. He also had a college-career average of 3.3 yards after contact, and 127 broken tackles on 592 carries. Those are all elite numbers. I also fully agree with you, Michel will not be handed the starting job. I have not said he will be a workhorse either. I do believe he will pace the team in touches when the season wraps up. As he is the by far the most talented back on the roster. This isn't like a rookie pass-rusher or TE, Michel will be ready to go soon.

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