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Deshaun Watson 2018 Outlook


Arrowhead

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Did a search and no thread came up. This guy was having simply a phenomenal rookie season up until his injury. Robbed of rookie of the year in my opinion what can we expect going forward this year?

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4 hours ago, Arrowhead said:

Did a search and no thread came up. This guy was having simply a phenomenal rookie season up until his injury. Robbed of rookie of the year in my opinion what can we expect going forward this year?

Top5 in fantasy.  Currently he’s ranked #1 and going late in the 2nd.

 

That’s to rich for my blood...

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Deshaun got away with a lot in his short term on the field (very lucky not converting turnover worthy throws into turnovers), and he's entering an offseason where he's going to be limited working out, while NFL coaches are going to have some film to study.

 

I like Watson.  I think long-term, he's going to be a decent to good starting QB.  But he isn't going to be a top 10 real QB next season.  He doesn't have the arm talent that Russell Wilson had to sustain success, and every other heavy running QB has had some regression as the league adjusts to them.  Rushing might get him in there for fantasy, but I'm expecting a regression year.  He was simply on an unsustainable pace without throwing in him getting away with a lot that probably won't be repeatable.  

 

I'll eat my words next year if he proves me wrong, but that just means one of my home state teams will be that much better. 

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43 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Ranked #1?  :o

I really like Watson and would consider him in the 4th or 5th round.

 

But for a young QB that hasn’t finished a complete year in the NFL going #1 is crazy.  

 

As far as I know, the Texan’s O line is still suspect...

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1 minute ago, jbshaw said:

Deshaun got away with a lot in his short term on the field (very lucky not converting turnover worthy throws into turnovers), and he's entering an offseason where he's going to be limited working out, while NFL coaches are going to have some film to study.

 

I like Watson.  I think long-term, he's going to be a decent to good starting QB.  But he isn't going to be a top 10 real QB next season.  He doesn't have the arm talent that Russell Wilson had to sustain success, and every other heavy running QB has had some regression as the league adjusts to them.  Rushing might get him in there for fantasy, but I'm expecting a regression year.  He was simply on an unsustainable pace without throwing in him getting away with a lot that probably won't be repeatable.  

 

I'll eat my words next year if he proves me wrong, but that just means one of my home state teams will be that much better. 

It’s a question of risk/reward...

 

If he plays 16 games he has a good chance of being in the top5.

 

But taking him above Rodgers, Wilson, etc. isn’t something I’m willing to do.

 

I don’t draft any QB in the 2nd round...  the best value is in round 7+

 

In my league we keep a QB on the bench (in addition to the starter) for bye weeks & injuries.

 

 I’m looking at Luck + Mahomes (as backup).

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8 hours ago, Arrowhead said:

Did a search and no thread came up. This guy was having simply a phenomenal rookie season up until his injury. Robbed of rookie of the year in my opinion what can we expect going forward this year?

How is a guy that played 7 games robbed of a rookie of the year???  You really think he deserved it over Kamara or Hunt??  Guys that were keys to their teams making the playoffs.  I really like Watson but highly doubt I will draft him.  Because somebody will spend a 4th or 5th rounder on him.  Thats to high for me considering the last rookie QB we saw blow up then blow his ACL was RG3.  Not saying he is going to be RG3 just that I won't pay Watson price when he has such limited work to go off.

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22 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

He's not too rich if he repeats his numbers.

I owned him last year, so I appreciate what he accomplished.  Defenses won’t be caught unaware in 2018, as they were in 2017.

 

If he “repeats his #s he’ll play 7 games.  The O line remains bad...

 

I won’t be taking the risk of drafting Watson as the #1.  If he falls to a reasonable value, I’ll be draft him.

 

I think the best value is going RB-RB or RB-WR in the first 2 rounds, a QB is not in my game plan.

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19 minutes ago, youngrice said:

How is a guy that played 7 games robbed of a rookie of the year???  You really think he deserved it over Kamara or Hunt??  Guys that were keys to their teams making the playoffs.  I really like Watson but highly doubt I will draft him.  Because somebody will spend a 4th or 5th rounder on him.  Thats to high for me considering the last rookie QB we saw blow up then blow his ACL was RG3.  Not saying he is going to be RG3 just that I won't pay Watson price when he has such limited work to go off.

I hear what you’re saying and I generally agree, but I’ve run through scenarios where I would consider him in those rounds.

 

For example, I’ve gone RB-WR-RB-WR and I’m staring at Crowell as my best option (bye week RB) so sure, I’d rather have Watson.  

 

The reality is he’ll be gone by then... 

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3 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I hear what you’re saying and I generally agree, but I’ve run through scenarios where I would consider him in those rounds.

 

For example, I’ve gone RB-WR-RB-WR and I’m staring at Crowell as my best option (bye week RB) so sure, I’d rather have Watson.  

Fair enough.  Have been playing fantasy for way to long(20 plus years).  The only year I have ever missed the playoffs in any league was because I took a QB before round 6.  Learned my lesson.  Sure I miss out on a Brady or Manning type 50 td year but my overall team is much better off.  

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9 hours ago, youngrice said:

Fair enough.  Have been playing fantasy for way to long(20 plus years).  The only year I have ever missed the playoffs in any league was because I took a QB before round 6.  Learned my lesson.  Sure I miss out on a Brady or Manning type 50 td year but my overall team is much better off.  

I don’t think either of use need to worry about drafting Watson, he’ll be gone before we get to a round where we consider him a good value.

 

 

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12 hours ago, the_dying_dream said:

He's not too rich if he repeats his numbers.

 

I am watching the Texans v. Hawks replay as I write.  The pick-6 to Thomas is a blemish, but Watson shows he's the real deal in this game.  He's a clear thinker, doesn't get rattled, is a big time run threat, and shows impressive accuracy.  He is also the sort of player that is going to grow every off-season (i.e., add something new to his repetoire).

 

I won't comment on where he ought to be drafted or how much he ought to cost in auction, but I'm confident he'll make sweet music with both Nuk and Fuller, and pad his pass stats with a copious amount of rush yards.  For me, his value is equal or better than Cam's, and not that much lower than Wilson's.  I value younger players with ascending performance arcs alot.  Last season, Watson showed me all I needed to see to buy into his future with confidence.

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I am watching the Texans v. Hawks replay as I write.  The pick-6 to Thomas is a blemish, but Watson shows he's the real deal in this game.  He's a clear thinker, doesn't get rattled, is a big time run threat, and shows impressive accuracy.  He is also the sort of player that is going to grow every off-season (i.e., add something new to his repetoire).

 

I won't comment on where he ought to be drafted or how much he ought to cost in auction, but I'm confident he'll make sweet music with both Nuk and Fuller, and pad his pass stats with a copious amount of rush yards.  For me, his value is equal or better than Cam's, and not that much lower than Wilson's.  I value younger players with ascending performance arcs alot.  Last season, Watson showed me all I needed to see to buy into his future with confidence.

I was actually at that game and while he was very impressive one game isn't the deciding factor of a player. We've seen terrible QBs shine for a game.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Watson and thought it's laughable he wasn't drafted top 5. However, taking him as a top 5 QB is a little bit ridiculous in my opinion. I value him around round 7-8.

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9 hours ago, AJJones said:

What 6th QB or later has his upside? If you do not want to gamble on a QB that is fine, but his intrinsic value is as high as Cam Newtons at worst.

I lied I won’t be considering Watson in the 4th ot 5th round.

 

I did another practice draft and Watson went in the 3rd. (W/ real people)

 

I drafted Big Ben in the 9th, and Luck in the 10th.  As long as good QB’s keep falling that far, it doesn’t make sense to use an early pick on Watson.

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8 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I lied I won’t be considering Watson in the 4th ot 5th round.

 

I did another practice draft and Watson went in the 3rd. (W/ real people)

 

I drafted Big Ben in the 9th, and Luck in the 10th.  As long as good QB’s keep falling that far, it doesn’t make sense to use an early pick on Watson.

 

So, a guy who wants to retire and a guy who hasn't thrown in two years makes you pass on Watson. Watson has 40 td potential and his running will put his floor on par with any QB on a weekly basis. I do not understand how you value qb's. Big Ben's best year in his career is how I value Watson in his second year.

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2 hours ago, AJJones said:

 

So, a guy who wants to retire and a guy who hasn't thrown in two years makes you pass on Watson. Watson has 40 td potential and his running will put his floor on par with any QB on a weekly basis. I do not understand how you value qb's. Big Ben's best year in his career is how I value Watson in his second year.

Big Ben says that every year.  He also finishes in the top10 in fantasy pretty much every year.

 

Luck would be the backup on my roster, but he may be my starter because he has the higher upside.  If he’s healthy, and reportedly he is moving in the right direction...Luck typically is top5.

 

So, even if Watson does finish the #1 QB.  He’s opportunity cost isn’t as good as Ben + Luck (who are available late).

 

Your projections are illogical for a guy that has never finished a season in the NFL.  

 

40TDs would put him in the top12 most EVER.  By the way, one of those top12 most is by Andrew Luck.

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13 hours ago, AJJones said:

 

So, a guy who wants to retire and a guy who hasn't thrown in two years makes you pass on Watson. Watson has 40 td potential and his running will put his floor on par with any QB on a weekly basis. I do not understand how you value qb's. Big Ben's best year in his career is how I value Watson in his second year.

Luck has 40 TD potential.

 

I also find it funny how you list these red flags yet at the same time ignore the fact that Watson only started 6 games in his career and is also coming of an injury.

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9 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

Taking him before R4 in a 12 teamer is a bit rich for my blood. He's undoubtedly talented. 4th or 5th round in a 12 teamer I can understand.

 

On 3/28/2018 at 10:15 PM, seanismorris said:

I really like Watson and would consider him in the 4th or 5th round.

 

I like the kid, but I think spending a 4th-5th round pick on Watson is overvalued and a waste of a pick. Better to take Fuller in Round 5 and Stafford in Round 10.

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On 3/29/2018 at 12:18 PM, the_dying_dream said:

What you guys think is auction value will be at? 

 

Anything beyond $6 is overpriced. Generally in auction there are decent QBs at $2-3. Picked up Wilson last season for $7 (while Brady and Rodgers went for $30+). Although I don't see either has selling as high as Brady/Rodgers, I imagine Wentz and Watson will be this year's QB bidding wars; best to avoid the war and use capital on WR/RB.

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11 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

 

I like the kid, but I think spending a 4th-5th round pick on Watson is overvalued and a waste of a pick. Better to take Fuller in Round 5 and Stafford in Round 10.

 

Right now Fuller's ADP is closer to round 10, so you can still take Fuller before then if you grab Watson earlier.

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