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Deshaun Watson 2018 Outlook


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7 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Damn I’m torn. Should I pick up Winston and plug him in? I feel like Watson won’t be this bad moving forward. The titans can’t score though and have a good defense. I can’t see him airing it out much. 

I'm picking up Winston and starting him over Watson this week. I am a big Watson fan, took him in the 4th round after seeing his crazy half season last year thinking this is the type of guy I would be drafting but he's so far gone from what he did last year. I think part of it had to do with being banged up earlier this year, but the big factor I believe is the defense. Watt being back has established this defense into the upper tier, and its given the Texans the luxury for Watson to only have to throw 20 times a game. 

 

In the beginning of the year, he was throwing and putting up some really solid numbers thanks to high yardage, but since week 4 he has been an awful fantasy starter outside of the Dolphins game.

 

It's hard to say this because his upside was tremendous going into the season (Maybe higher than anybody else) but his upside against a defensive minded conservative offense like the Titans who will be without Mariota is probably 2 TDs and 250 yards. That's best case without throwing INTs like he has done. I think it's a repeat of last week against the Redskins and they win a low scoring battle. 

 

I am 5-6 (most part to Watsons poor play) and I at least know from Winston that I am going to go down swinging because with Winstons upside, awful Bucs defense, and how bad the niners defense is that he should light them up for at least 25-30 fantasy points in my opinion. I know there's the chance he could be pulled by halftime with 3 picks, but I'll take that chance rather than stay on the Watson train to know I'm getting 12 fantasy points again. 

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27 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Damn I’m torn. Should I pick up Winston and plug him in? I feel like Watson won’t be this bad moving forward. The titans can’t score though and have a good defense. I can’t see him airing it out much. 

Im picking up and starting Winston over Watson. Ill reevaluate next week.

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Put me in the Winston over Watson camp. What made Watson so enticing was his legs. His numbers take a huge hit when Fuller is out, and he doesn't run anymore (zero rushing TDs as well). That just absolutely destroys his value. Really unfortunate because I'm sure plenty in here reached for him, but it is what it is at this point. He's a low-end QB1 (at best).

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45 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Put me in the Winston over Watson camp. What made Watson so enticing was his legs. His numbers take a huge hit when Fuller is out, and he doesn't run anymore (zero rushing TDs as well). That just absolutely destroys his value. Really unfortunate because I'm sure plenty in here reached for him, but it is what it is at this point. He's a low-end QB1 (at best).

YUp, hoping for Watson to do damage on the ground but it hasn't really happened 

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This guy is too small to hack it in the NFL. He doesn't have the passing skills to be productive enough as a fantasy QB, and he doesn't have the durability to be a dependable franchise QB. He's RGIV, and will be competing with RGIII for journeyman QB jobs once his current contract expires.
 

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18 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

This guy is too small to hack it in the NFL. He doesn't have the passing skills to be productive enough as a fantasy QB, and he doesn't have the durability to be a dependable franchise QB. He's RGIV, and will be competing with RGIII for journeyman QB jobs once his current contract expires.
 

His completion percentage this year is 65.0%. Aaron Rodgers' career completion percentage is 64.9% (61.8% this year). His career stats for a full season calculate to 4043 with 35 TDs, along with 512 rushing yards and 3 TDs. That doesn't exactly scream journeyman to me.

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I was finally ready to bench Watson and roll with Trubisky from here on out and now it looks like Trubisky will be out.  Have no choice to start Watson now.  What are we thinking against a pretty tough D?

 

A lot of talk about Watson being a disappointment this season, but he was a top 5 fantasy QB with a healthy Fuller.  Losing Fuller took away his deep threat and thus a lot of Watsons fantasy points from long TD throws.  They needed to get another deep threat at the trade deadline instead of a possession receiver like DT. 

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6 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

His completion percentage this year is 65.0%. Aaron Rodgers' career completion percentage is 64.9% (61.8% this year). His career stats for a full season calculate to 4043 with 35 TDs, along with 512 rushing yards and 3 TDs. That doesn't exactly scream journeyman to me.

 

A completion percentage argument, when the QB is attempting 20 passes a game, whose offense with rare exceptions scores 20 points a week, is not an argument that moves the needle much imo. You're talking about 13-15 completions in an entire game - I'm not sure this is the best measure (completion %) to be using in Watson's case. 

 

If he was still running, he'd be rendering his pass stats irrelevant because he could supplement poor output there. But he's not. And he's not going to. Dude has had the hell knocked out of him all season and now he's down more bodies on the OL.

 

Week 15 (?? - didn't notice this before) is their next road game and it's in NY. I don't think he desires to ride a bus to NY.

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On 11/20/2018 at 3:42 PM, SuperJoint said:

This guy is too small to hack it in the NFL. He doesn't have the passing skills to be productive enough as a fantasy QB, and he doesn't have the durability to be a dependable franchise QB. He's RGIV, and will be competing with RGIII for journeyman QB jobs once his current contract expires.
 

 

This is a ridiculous post.  He has a higher completion % than he did last year when he had only played 7 games, and his yards per attempt is actually .1% higher.  He just doesn't have a terrible defense like he did last year where he had to be in a shootout every game.  He doesn't NEED to pass it 40 times a game, or use his legs as much.  His O-line is still god awful which has led to the many sacks he's taken this year, but he's actually performed just as well last year minus the TD's, which as I mentioned earlier.. he doesn't need to score because their defense is only allowing 20 points per game.

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Missed the game last night but obviously he dominated. Saw in another thread that Houston got 2 lineman back from injury. 

 

I’m guessing most of us have Watson and Lamar Jackson. How do you think Watson performs for ros? I had zero confidence in him after Fuller went down but seeing the stats from last night, he ran for around 70 yards and also a rushing td. They are showing that they can adjust to losing the deep threat by utilizing Watson more. 

 

 

What do you guys think?

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3 minutes ago, dmody91 said:

Missed the game last night but obviously he dominated. Saw in another thread that Houston got 2 lineman back from injury. 

 

I’m guessing most of us have Watson and Lamar Jackson. How do you think Watson performs for ros? I had zero confidence in him after Fuller went down but seeing the stats from last night, he ran for around 70 yards and also a rushing td. They are showing that they can adjust to losing the deep threat by utilizing Watson more. 

 

 

What do you guys think?

He looked elusive and sharp last night. Should of had a fumble on a 30 yard scamper. DT is getting more involved. 

 

Id take Watson over Jackson ROS but I don't think I'm going out on a limb

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14 minutes ago, dmody91 said:

Missed the game last night but obviously he dominated. Saw in another thread that Houston got 2 lineman back from injury. 

 

I’m guessing most of us have Watson and Lamar Jackson. How do you think Watson performs for ros? I had zero confidence in him after Fuller went down but seeing the stats from last night, he ran for around 70 yards and also a rushing td. They are showing that they can adjust to losing the deep threat by utilizing Watson more. 

 

 

What do you guys think?

Im thinking there may be something to his home/road splits. The rushing was encouraging but I just don't see much passing volume here. I started Winston over him and Ill guess it will be a week to week decision for me. Coutee got hurt again too so not much there passing wise after Nuk.

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24 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Im thinking there may be something to his home/road splits. The rushing was encouraging but I just don't see much passing volume here. I started Winston over him and Ill guess it will be a week to week decision for me. Coutee got hurt again too so not much there passing wise after Nuk.

DT looked good and Jordan Thomas is a big body and looks like  he has good hands.

 

ive been waiting for more targets to Lamar miller...That's where he did a ton of damage in Miami.

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Proved me wrong yesterday... I am still going with Winston cause of the matchup and higher potential for a shoot out than Hou vs Cle. Texans D is pretty scary up front and feel the browns won't be able to put up many points. 

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I picked up Jameis and started him over Deshaun last week. Both guys have incredible ceilings and scary low floors, Jameis because he may throw 3 picks in a half and get benched (though it seems he'll keep the job ROS), and Deshaun because he may just throw the ball like 22 times in a given week if they take an early lead. I'm agonizing who to go with in a win-and-in lose-and-go-home match this week, but I think I'll have to roll with Jameis (6 point passing TD league).

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2 hours ago, yanksman said:

Im thinking there may be something to his home/road splits. The rushing was encouraging but I just don't see much passing volume here. I started Winston over him and Ill guess it will be a week to week decision for me. Coutee got hurt again too so not much there passing wise after Nuk.

 

They were up two scores for almost 75% of the game and they were gashing the Titans with the run, you cant expect them to keep throwing it.

 

This is pretty straight forward IMO when looking at their season.  Houston has committed to the run and controlling the clock.  They have won 8 straight and Watson hasn't thrown more than 25 passes in 6/8 wins and the  two games he did went into overtime and he was + 40 attempts in both of those.  The 6 games he threw less than 25 were all against inferior opponents IMO and they had the lead/were in control of the game and were controlling the clock and letting their D go to work. 

 

In their 3 losses he threw, 32, 34 & 40 attempts.  I don't see 40+ attempts from him in a week unless they are trailing early, a position they haven't been in throughout this win streak.  With CLE, IND, NYJ & PHI left I can only see IND and PHI as potential high volume games for Watson.  For those of us in the playoffs, maybe look for a week 15 filler, I have my eyes on DAK as he gets IND...

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