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Deshaun Watson 2018 Outlook


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I’m in a limbo here.  I traded for Watson two weeks ago.  I have him, cousins, and Lamar Jackson.  Anyone trusting Watson fully down the stretch? He seems so hit or miss. I know for me personally when I have a QB controversy with 2 or more QBs on my team I end up f’ing it up and losing lol.  

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5 hours ago, dlionsfan901 said:

I’m in a limbo here.  I traded for Watson two weeks ago.  I have him, cousins, and Lamar Jackson.  Anyone trusting Watson fully down the stretch? He seems so hit or miss. I know for me personally when I have a QB controversy with 2 or more QBs on my team I end up f’ing it up and losing lol.  

You should be able to trust him the next 2 weeks, play Lamar @TB, then Cousins @Det

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44 minutes ago, akooreman180 said:

Good to see a solid performance from Watson today. Not an eye popping game but definitely got the job done even while only throwing one touchdown. He also ran more which is only going to increase his floor going forward. 

I think the issue is with that defense and schedule, they aren’t going to need eye popping performances and therefore, we are not likely to get them.

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10 minutes ago, nromn said:

I think the issue is with that defense and schedule, they aren’t going to need eye popping performances and therefore, we are not likely to get them.

True. I just think that if he continues running more he will put up similar performances. He might not win you a week in playoffs but at the same time he’s becoming less likely to bust. 

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I had high hopes for this guy this season, something like Mahomes is actually doing. 

 

Even with Chubb, Conner, Aaron Jones, Nuk, Mike Evans on my team I’m not gonna make the playoffs and I can’t help but feel like it’s this guys fault. 

 

So blahhhhh

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I was planning on benching him for Winston this week but am I overthinking this? This may be the first game he actually has to pass the ball over 25 times. He shredded Indy last time. Sure their defense has been playing better but they really haven't play anybody good in their 9 game winning streak. Hes been efficient with his passes. Im wondering if this is a blowup spot for him. He has as much opportunity as anyone to be a top 5 QB this week, right?

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4 minutes ago, yanksman said:

I was planning on benching him for Winston this week but am I overthinking this? This may be the first game he actually has to pass the ball over 25 times. He shredded Indy last time. Sure their defense has been playing better but they really haven't play anybody good in their 9 game winning streak. Hes been efficient with his passes. Im wondering if this is a blowup spot for him. He has as much opportunity as anyone to be a top 5 QB this week, right?

 

I'm debating Watson too....Watson versus Cam for me.

 

I like the matchup for Watson this week.....In a dome against a Colts team that should make a much better showing than they did last week.  Watson hasn't been putting many passes up but he's played pretty well.  If he can be forced into a little more volume it could be a big game.

 

I'd probably play Winston over him though.  Winston will probably have twice as many pass attempts as Watson.

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On 12/2/2018 at 8:23 PM, SuperJoint said:

Completion percentage must be a category in some league because I've heard a lot about it in this thread.

 

Actually...the keeper league I run gives fractional points for completions and takes more fractional points away for incompletions. I think you have to be above 65% to have positive points. Kinda neat.

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On 12/2/2018 at 9:22 PM, billydough said:

I had high hopes for this guy this season, something like Mahomes is actually doing. 

 

Even with Chubb, Conner, Aaron Jones, Nuk, Mike Evans on my team I’m not gonna make the playoffs and I can’t help but feel like it’s this guys fault. 

 

So blahhhhh

 

If you can’t make the playoffs with those guys on your squad, it’s your own fault.

 

Watson had a crappy defense and running game last year due to all the injuries they had > which led to lots of shootouts > which led to more fantasy production.

 

Now they have a top 5 defense, a good running game, and he is being asked to do less.  Ever since he got healthy from the rib/lung injury he’s playing well as a real life QB, but unfortunately for us, his fantasy stats are down.

 

Its not his fault, it’s our fault for not realizing this was a possible outcome with his defense getting all their elite players back healthy this year.  

 

I traded for Cam a while back because I thought this might be what happens, but I might start Watson this week because of Cam’s shoulder.  I expect a high floor game, and his ceiling could be a bit higher this week with Luck on the other side hopefully putting up some points.

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1 hour ago, yanksman said:

I was planning on benching him for Winston this week but am I overthinking this? This may be the first game he actually has to pass the ball over 25 times. He shredded Indy last time. Sure their defense has been playing better but they really haven't play anybody good in their 9 game winning streak. Hes been efficient with his passes. Im wondering if this is a blowup spot for him. He has as much opportunity as anyone to be a top 5 QB this week, right?

 

Same conundrum in a 6pt for passing TD league (which tips the needle even more towards Jameis). I was leaning Jameis before the reports of 15 MPH winds and thunderstorms in Tampa this weekend. If that proves to be the case I'll probably roll with Watson. The Colts should be able to put up points, and have been pretty stout against the run of late, hopefully forcing Deshaun to throw the ball at least 40 times...

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The fact he's at home against a D that's looked good lately but can be (and has been) beat makes him a solid start. The big difference here from last week is you're facing a hot VETERAN QB in Luck that's been getting things done this year. The hope would be of course that somehow IND can cool down this hot defense in HOU. They're playing so well right now they've been crashing the party.

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23 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

The fact he's at home against a D that's looked good lately but can be (and has been) beat makes him a solid start. The big difference here from last week is you're facing a hot VETERAN QB in Luck that's been getting things done this year. The hope would be of course that somehow IND can cool down this hot defense in HOU. They're playing so well right now they've been crashing the party.

 

Luck cooled the hell down in JAX last weekend.  He looked very pedestrian.   I'm guessing the Colts get exposed this weekend.

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6 minutes ago, RockSexton said:

 

Luck cooled the hell down in JAX last weekend.  He looked very pedestrian.   I'm guessing the Colts get exposed this weekend.

 

That game had trap written all over it. I expect Luck and the Colts’ offense to bounce back this week indoors on the turf.  Still a tough matchup for them, but I expect them to be able to put up some points and make Watson have to throw a decent amount.

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Write-up below from Mike Tagliere’s Week 14 Primer.  He has him as his #3 ranked QB this week, and I trust Tagliere more than any other “expert.”  I think I’m going to start Deshaun over Cam this week.

 

Deshaun Watson

We finally saw Watson throw the ball more than 25 times last week, as it was the first time since Week 5. It may have only netted 224 yards and a touchdown, but it’s a step in the right direction. The Colts opponents have averaged a somewhat small 33.5 pass attempts per game, though part of the reason is due to increased efficiency, as they’ve allowed a 71.9 percent completion-rate (2nd-highest in the league). This is your reminder that the all-time completion percentage for any quarterback is 72.0 percent. Watson had a massive game against the Colts while in Indianapolis, as he posted 375 passing yards, 41 rushing yards, and three total touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing). It was the biggest performance they’ve allowed all season. Similar to the Texans, the Colts competition has been awful as of late. Here’s the list of quarterbacks they’ve played since Week 5: Sam DarnoldDerek AndersonDerek CarrBlake BortlesBlaine Gabbert/Marcus MariotaRyan Tannehill, and Cody Kessler. So, when looking at their overall numbers against quarterbacks, they should look good. Keep in mind they allowed two or more passing touchdowns in four of those games. You should expect Watson to finish as a rock-solid QB1 this week and he comes with as much upside as anyone.

 

 

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How do we feel about him tomorrow? I'm scared this could be one of those get ahead and give Miller/Blue 30 carries games, but he could blow up if the game is somehow close. Weather shouldn't be a factor as it is warm (for December) here in NYC.

 

Jets have the highest blitz percentage and give up the most QB rushing yards in the league, so maybe this could be a week where he breaks for a 30 yard TD on the ground. 

 

I'm likely starting over Dak and Jameis in a 6pt passing TD league for context sake.

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16 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

How do we feel about him tomorrow? I'm scared this could be one of those get ahead and give Miller/Blue 30 carries games, but he could blow up if the game is somehow close. Weather shouldn't be a factor as it is warm (for December) here in NYC.

 

Jets have the highest blitz percentage and give up the most QB rushing yards in the league, so maybe this could be a week where he breaks for a 30 yard TD on the ground. 

 

I'm likely starting over Dak and Jameis in a 6pt passing TD league for context sake. 

 

I'd start him over those guys. Sitting for Luck here.

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32 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

How do we feel about him tomorrow? I'm scared this could be one of those get ahead and give Miller/Blue 30 carries games, but he could blow up if the game is somehow close. Weather shouldn't be a factor as it is warm (for December) here in NYC.

 

Jets have the highest blitz percentage and give up the most QB rushing yards in the league, so maybe this could be a week where he breaks for a 30 yard TD on the ground. 

 

I'm likely starting over Dak and Jameis in a 6pt passing TD league for context sake.

 

I think he’s got a pretty high floor this week, but I don’t see a real big game coming because I doubt they will need him to throw a lot.  I’m out to a lead thanks to my Jackson v. his Tyreek last night, so leaning on playing the higher floor with Watson over Jekyll/Hyde Cam Newton.  

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Concerned that Watson won't have to do much to win this game. Texans D will probably get a touchdown and they'll get another on the ground.

 

Also, looks like chance of rain there.

 

Thinking Dak in the dome in a higher scoring game could be safer.

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