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Ezekiel Elliott 2018 Outlook

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I'm debating Dak just flat out being better simply by not having to feed Dez constantly.    Its not unprecedented for a young running QB to succeed without an alpha target.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2012.htm

 

RG3 balled out his rookie year with a lead group of Josh Morgan, Santana Moss at 33, Leonard Hankerson, and 10 games of Pierre Garcon.  They all hovered around the 40 catch, 5-600 yard mark.  There wasn't a productive receiving back or TE either.        

 

Its going to take an excellent strategy from their OC, but I think Dak's got value and he'll rush enough to make himself a good QB2.   

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13 minutes ago, cyberwatty said:

My issue is Dez is still a good redzone threat. I can't say this team is better without him. I would have to draft Barkley over Zeke. Is that crazy? Barkley's situation seems better in almost every way. I would say I compare Zeke's situation to Mccoy's situation last year and that's not worth top 3.  

honestly a fair comparison. I would say that Zekes oline is clearly better and, imo, DAL's Wrs are better and so is zeke for that matter. Also, doesn't Buf often use another back at the goaline? 

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1 minute ago, BrianM said:

I'm debating Dak just flat out being better simply by not having to feed Dez constantly.    Its not unprecedented for a young running QB to succeed without an alpha target.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2012.htm

 

RG3 balled out his rookie year with a lead group of Josh Morgan, Santana Moss at 33, Leonard Hankerson, and 10 games of Pierre Garcon.  They all hovered around the 40 catch, 5-600 yard mark.  There wasn't a productive receiving back or TE either.        

 

Its going to take an excellent strategy from their OC, but I think Dak's got value and he'll rush enough to make himself a good QB2.   

 

This. 

 

Same thing happened with Favre once Sterling Sharp's career ended and he no longer had a dominant #1 WR. 

 

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1 hour ago, cyberwatty said:

My issue is Dez is still a good redzone threat. I can't say this team is better without him. I would have to draft Barkley over Zeke. Is that crazy? Barkley's situation seems better in almost every way. I would say I compare Zeke's situation to Mccoy's situation last year and that's not worth top 3.  

 

If you’re worried about the team struggling to pass inside the 20.... well then they’ll probably run. I think he’s goig to have the potential for a Gurley-Esquire Redzone usage, so if the worries don’t start until they get there I’m not concerned. 

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1 hour ago, timexsocialclub said:

This dude gonna feast. Any concerns are unfounded.

As a Project Manager, whenever somebody tells me "don't worry", I tell them "It's my job to worry. And then to do something about it."
The same goes here. It's our job as fantasy owners to identify the worries, assess them, and do something about it.

No, we can't actually influence the game, but we can value the players during the draft and before each game. Worrying is an absolutely essential part of that.
B)

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3 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

As a Project Manager, whenever somebody tells me "don't worry", I tell them "It's my job to worry. And then to do something about it."
The same goes here. It's our job as fantasy owners to identify the worries, assess them, and do something about it.

No, we can't actually influence the game, but we can value the players during the draft and before each game. Worrying is an absolutely essential part of that.
B)

My advice: If you're gonna worry about fantasy football, worry about something other than Zeke. If you're managing a project, you shouldn't sweat the members of the team you have every reason to believe will be solid contributors; that's wasted worry to an extent. Worry is good but you have to allocate your worry properly otherwise you might suffer paralysis by analysis.

 

In short, draft Zeke. Win. Don't look back. He's special and so fun to own, except at Denver

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1 hour ago, timexsocialclub said:

This dude gonna feast. Any concerns are unfounded.

Didn't you hear?  Losing Dez means he's going from 1600 rushing yards to a huge question mark.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Didn't you hear?  Losing Dez means he's going from 1600 rushing yards to a huge question mark.

Missed that. Dropping him as a keeper. Thanks.

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1 minute ago, timexsocialclub said:

Missed that. Dropping him as a keeper. Thanks.

Just trade him for Deshaun Watson!

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18 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

My advice: If you're gonna worry about fantasy football, worry about something other than Zeke.

True, if you have time to worry about Zeke it probably means everything else must be doing great ;)

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Ezekiel Elliot's Projected Rushing Yards (Yahoo):
1337

LOL!

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2 hours ago, ponza88 said:

Ezekiel Elliot's Projected Rushing Yards (Yahoo):
1337

LOL!

More like 1700

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Strongly considering Zeke #1 overall.

 

-Of the top 4 backs Zeke is the most durable

 

- Will lead the leauge in touches imo

 

- Oline will be significantly improved with the addition on Connor Williams and a hopefully healthy year from the rest of the starters. 

 

- Subtraction of Dez and the additions of Gallup and Hurns

 

- Daks 3rd year

 

He's probably the safest bet of the top 4 backs all things considered. Really tough decision at #1 lol. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Jj66 said:

Strongly considering Zeke #1 overall.

 

-Of the top 4 backs Zeke is the most durable

 

- Will lead the leauge in touches imo

 

- Oline will be significantly improved with the addition on Connor Williams and a hopefully healthy year from the rest of the starters. 

 

- Subtraction of Dez and the additions of Gallup and Hurns

 

- Daks 3rd year

 

He's probably the safest bet of the top 4 backs all things considered. Really tough decision at #1 lol. 

 

I'd take him at 1.

Should see a lot more receptions this year too.  With Witten gone and an underwhelming wr corps, I think he'll get 50-60 catches and 320ish carries.  Almost 400 touches, 2,000 total yards, 20 tds is not just doable, it's downright reasonable.

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Zeke the freak. 

 

Too bad he's probably gonna cost like $65+ in a $200 auction. 

 

I still want him though. 

 

Have any of y'all ever sunk 1/3rd of your auction money into 1 single player and still had success that season? 

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11 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Zeke the freak. 

 

Too bad he's probably gonna cost like $65+ in a $200 auction. 

 

I still want him though. 

 

Have any of y'all ever sunk 1/3rd of your auction money into 1 single player and still had success that season? 

 I havent played auction yet, but i was at one and a guy spent like 135-140 on Bell and DJ, then 20 or so on Brady...

He made the playoffs

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In a redraft Keeper league he’s my #2 after Gurley

 

standard redraft im taking him 3 after Gurley and Bell.

 

extremely bitter lately because even though I obtained these keeper fairly over time. The only way my one league would raise the buy in is if we redrafted. My keepers were Gurley, LeVeon, and Zeke...

 

Drafted Gurley 10th overall after winning the championship one year. So everyone else could have picked him.

 

Drafted Zeke after winning the 1st over all pick that year.

 

traded Jeremy Hill, Eddie Lacy, and Sammy Watkins for Le’Veon Bell right after he tore his ACL

Edited by wildvikestwins

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6 minutes ago, wildvikestwins said:

My keepers were Gurley, LeVeon, and Zeke...

 

Drafted Gurley 10th overall after winning the championship one year. So everyone else could have picked him.

Do you play with blind children?

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18 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Do you play with blind children?

Hindsight 20/20. He did Tear his ACL and was supposed to miss all year I believe not positive though. ACL’s were more serious still a few years ago

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36 minutes ago, wildvikestwins said:

In a redraft Keeper league he’s my #2 after Gurley

 

standard redraft im taking him 3 after Gurley and Bell.

 

extremely bitter lately because even though I obtained these keeper fairly over time. The only way my one league would raise the buy in is if we redrafted. My keepers were Gurley, LeVeon, and Zeke...

 

Drafted Gurley 10th overall after winning the championship one year. So everyone else could have picked him.

 

Drafted Zeke after winning the 1st over all pick that year.

 

traded Jeremy Hill, Eddie Lacy, and Sammy Watkins for Le’Veon Bell right after he tore his ACL

 

This sounds like you are a good keeper manager and built yourself a potential dynasty. 

 

Then everyone else got jealous and wanted to destroy it through loopholes. 

 

I feel for you. Not sure I would have conceded myself. 

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15 minutes ago, wildvikestwins said:

Hindsight 20/20. He did Tear his ACL and was supposed to miss all year I believe not positive though. ACL’s were more serious still a few years ago

He was the consensus #1 pick in rookie drafts

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

He was the consensus #1 pick in rookie drafts

It was a 3 keeper draft. He definitly was not projected 1st considering the ACL I will guarantee you that.

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Zeke should easily finish top 3 RB's this year. He is out to forget last year.

Legit shot for the overall #1 RB in fantasy? Absolutely.

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FWIW DAL beat writer calling for Zeke to be used as a receiver more often in 2018: 

 

 

Historically looking at Linehan's history as OC or HC: 

 

2002 OC Vikings: RB position accounted for 85 targets out of 558 pass attempts (15.23% target share)

 

2003 OC Vikings: RB position accounted for 122 targets out of 520 pass attempts (23.46% target share)

 

2004 OC Vikings: RB position accounted for 127 targets out of 552 pass attempts (23% target share)

 

2005 OC Dolphins: RB position accounted for 68 targets out of 556 pass attempts (12.23% target share)

 

2006 HC Rams: RB position accounted for 127 targets out of 592 pass attempts (21.45% target share)

 

2007 HC Rams: RB position accounted for 117 targets out of 574 pass attempts (20.38% target share)

 

2008 HC Rams: RB position accounted for 116 targets out of 520 pass attempts (22.31% target share)

 

2009 OC Lions: RB position accounted for 95 targets out of 585 pass attempts (16.24% target share)

 

2010 OC Lions: RB position accounted for 141 targets out of 633 pass attempts (22.27% target share)

 

2011 OC Lions: RB position accounted for 114 targets out of 666 pass attempts (17.11% target share)

 

2012 OC Lions: RB position accounted for 142 targets out of 740 pass attempts (19.19% target share)

 

2013 OC Lions: RB position accounted for 157 targets out of 634 pass attempts (24.76% target share)

 

2015 OC Cowboys: RB position accounted for 98 targets out of 528 pass attempts (18.56% target share)

 

2016 OC Cowboys: RB position accounted for 75 targets out of 483 pass attempts (15.53% target share)

 

2017 OC Cowboys: RB position accounted for 70 targets out of 493 pass attempts (14.20% target share)

 

It's flawed to look at it this way for a few reasons (depends on who actually called the plays these seasons+needs context as some of these teams had guys like Moss and Megatron while DAL doesn't feature anyone of that magnitude at WR), but those are the numbers.

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