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Joey Lucchesi 2018 Outlook

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if you have seen any clips of him, hes very very very deceptive.  He also has the best pick off move of anyone in the minors

 

 

Edited by Golden Spikes
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31 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

wohoo!!

 

first of the young wave of superstars incoming

 

 

I'd much rather watch him and guys like Perdomo, Lamet, and Erlin than Bryan Mitchell, etc. 

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he had 10.87 K9 in A+ and that fell to 7.91 in AA. any reason for the drop?

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2 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I'd much rather watch him and guys like Perdomo, Lamet, and Erlin than Bryan Mitchell, etc. 

 

you can cross Perdomo off that list to me, he wont be around very shortly imo, and has very little upside.  Mitchell we don't know what he is yet, but the Padres spent 13 mil on him essentially and I trust in Preller

 

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3 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

he had 10.87 K9 in A+ and that fell to 7.91 in AA. any reason for the drop?

 

yah you have to look at it over steps, when he first got to AA, his k rate dropped significantly, but his last 6 starts he was back up over 9.5

 

and of course as you move up, your rates are likely to decrease, he was impressive in the Spring though

 

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I see a little Alex Wood in his windup. He jerks the ball behind him similarly. 

 

Hes is a little more herky jerky than wood though

Edited by mavsfan23
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I picked him up yesterday because its been rumored he would be up after 2 weeks. I'm always interested in young starting pitching. With all of the injuries to starting pitching throughout the league he might be better bet than some of these lower end rotation pitchers. Anytime a Pitcher can hit mid 90's they have a chance to help even if they're not great with their control. I hope he is able to overcome early gitters and perform well right away. That way he can cement his spot in a very suspect Padres Rotation.

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5 minutes ago, avatoot said:

I picked him up yesterday because its been rumored he would be up after 2 weeks. I'm always interested in young starting pitching. With all of the injuries to starting pitching throughout the league he might be better bet than some of these lower end rotation pitchers. Anytime a Pitcher can hit mid 90's they have a chance to help even if they're not great with their control. I hope he is able to overcome early gitters and perform well right away. That way he can cement his spot in a very suspect Padres Rotation.

 

everything I have read about this guy, hes the most prepared of the Padres prospects and just gets it right now.  I am pretty certain he won't leave the rotation barring injury.

 

When Lamet comes back assuming health

Ross, Perdomo, and Mitchell will be on the chopping block

 

Although Ross has looked great so far too

 

Lamet, Lucchesi, Baez, Morejon, Gore, Quantrill, Paddack, Espinoza, Allen, Lauer, Avila, Nix....man can't wait 

Edited by Golden Spikes
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http://rotoprofessor.com/prospects/?p=2084

 

Quote

Joey Lucchesi, a southpaw who was selected in the sixth round of the 2016 draft.  However that would be a mistake, as there’s the potential for him to actually reach the Majors as soon as 2018 (he’ll turn 25-years old in June and has reached Double-A) and you can argue he has nearly as much upside as anyone in the system (outside of Gore and Quantrill).

He clearly put his stuff on display last season, splitting time between High-A (78.2 IP) and Double-A (60.1 IP) and showed off all three skills we look for from a pitcher:

  • Strikeouts – 9.58 K/9 (12.6% SwStr%)
  • Walks – 2.14 BB/9
  • Groundballs – 50.3%

While no one is going to confuse him with Clayton Kershaw, this scouting report courtesy of Rich Wilson of Prospect 361 has got to catch your attention:

“So not only does Lucchesi have that funky delivery, ala the funkiest of funky, Clayton Kershaw, he also has good stuff.  His fastball sits in the low 90’s and touches higher with a hard curveball that he throws for strikes.  His changeup has improved since he was drafted and is also considered at least an average offering.”

There’s little doubt that he can hold up to a starter’s workload, listed at 6’5” and 204 lbs.  The biggest question was if the delivery would hold up to being a starter, or if he’d produce better results coming out of the bullpen.  Thus far starting clearly hasn’t been an issue, especially as he maintained his control upon his promotion to Double-A (2.09 BB/9).  His strikeout rate did fall (7.91 K/9), which could raise a slight red flag, but his 9.2% SwStr% is enough.  Even if you want to say that he’s an 8.0-8.5 K/9 starter the other skills make him valuable, but there is the upside to be more than that.

Let’s just let all of this data sink in for a minute…

Deceptive left-handed delivery…
Three average or better pitches…
Already displays strikeouts, control and groundballs…
Will call a favorably ballpark home…

What exactly is there not to like?  Pitching in the upper levels in ’18 he has the potential to really grab some attention and emerge as an impact pitching prospect.  This could be your last opportunity to get in on the ground floor, because his status could leap up quickly.

Current Grade – B
Projected Year End Grade – B+
ETA – 2018

 

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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

if you have seen any clips of him, hes very very very deceptive.  He also has the best pick off move of anyone in the minors

 

 

After watching that video it makes me think he was a big fan of Andy Pettite growing up. Are we adding in 12 team mixed leagues or is he a wait and see guy?

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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

After watching that video it makes me think he was a big fan of Andy Pettite growing up. Are we adding in 12 team mixed leagues or is he a wait and see guy?

I can see that. Add now if you wait it’s too late if he’s bad it’s easy drop

 

9 wins 3.45 era 1.12 whip 140k in 150 ip is my prediction

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12 hours ago, tingyangs6 said:

Does he have electric stuff? 

Not really. Slightly above-average.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/what-to-expect-from-the-padres-joey-lucchesi/

 

" We considered him a No. 4 starter who was pretty likely to realize that outcome relatively soon. His stuff is generic. He sits 89-92, will touch 94, both of his breaking balls are average, and his changeup is slightly above."

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Right - he is more about “pitchability” and deception.

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4 minutes ago, ZeroCool22 said:

Joey Lucchesi is a friend of ours.

Man I haven't seen that movie in  forever.  Nice deep ref! 

Edited by WahooManiac

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Kyle Glaser of Baseball America in an offseason chat: "Lucchesi is the most ML-ready of any starter in the Padres system right now. He'll be the first one called up as long as he does what he should, and no one should be surprised four years from now if he is in the 2021 rotation instead of some of the guys ranked ahead of him. Three above-average pitches, deception, durability, controls the run game, ice in his veins...it's all there."

Edited by rdf8585
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He seems like a guy that could have a hot start and/or be quite effective a couple times through a lineup. If his stuff isn't that great and he mostly relies on deception, could get hit hard the third time through. 

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SO what I'm getting from this thread is that he's a lefty who relies on deception, not stuff. Should be intersting to see how he starts. He could be Alex Wood and survive, but he could also be Tony Cingrani and be nothing noteworthy. Both were lefties with elite minor league numbers who relied on deceptiveness and not stuff.

 

At this point its just a wait and see game. Deep leagues he's worth a shot if you have an open roster spot, but not worth dropping anyone who might provide value.

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