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Joey Lucchesi 2018 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, Tugginroot said:

Play against him and her turns into Kershaw 

 

Not even Kershaw can pitch this well at Coors. Stud.

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On 4/4/2018 at 7:16 PM, jdbob11 said:

He threw BP to the Brewers.  Rockies will eat him alive. 

 

nailed it!

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I think he is a very strong sell high, although I think that sell-high window will last for a few weeks.  But he is a new guy, doesn't have too much endurance yet, not premier stuff so the league will do some homework, and may lose his spot to Lamet / innings considerations. 

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3 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

I think he is a very strong sell high, although I think that sell-high window will last for a few weeks.  But he is a new guy, doesn't have too much endurance yet, not premier stuff so the league will do some homework, and may lose his spot to Lamet / innings considerations. 

 

you can't sell high on a guy like this, nobody will pay for it

 

he won't lose his spot

also hes not on an innings limit

 

dude is a legit out getter

set and forget

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1 minute ago, Golden Spikes said:

 

you can't sell high on a guy like this, nobody will pay for it

 

he won't lose his spot

also hes not on an innings limit

 

dude is a legit out getter

set and forget

 

I don't know about this:  I feel like you are exactly the type of person who would pay for it.  Not saying you're wrong even; he may very well be legit all year and a solid SP.  I'd bet 70:30 against though, and I'm willing to sell high to a believer. 

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17 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

I think he is a very strong sell high, although I think that sell-high window will last for a few weeks.  But he is a new guy, doesn't have too much endurance yet, not premier stuff so the league will do some homework, and may lose his spot to Lamet / innings considerations. 

 

Well to his credit, this is the second time the rockies have faced him... Looks like they didn't do their homework 

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10 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

I think he is a very strong sell high, although I think that sell-high window will last for a few weeks.  But he is a new guy, doesn't have too much endurance yet, not premier stuff so the league will do some homework, and may lose his spot to Lamet / innings considerations. 

 

He's only 27% owned in CBS leagues...

 

The real question is whether he's a pick up (yes) or not.  I doubt he has any trade value.

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2 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

He's only 27% owned in CBS leagues...

 

The real question is whether he's a pick up (yes) or not.  I doubt he has any trade value.

 

Well, depends on the league.  In a ten teamer, I stream matchups with him as needed.  But in a deep league (300+ players owned), anyone pitching well has a ton of value. 

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1 hour ago, merlin401 said:

 

I don't know about this:  I feel like you are exactly the type of person who would pay for it.  Not saying you're wrong even; he may very well be legit all year and a solid SP.  I'd bet 70:30 against though, and I'm willing to sell high to a believer. 

 

I have him in 2 out of 3 leagues, and I wouldn't sell him unless I got a good player in return, and I wouldn't offer anything for him

 

I am just happy to have him, hes one of those guys every year, that you just got lucky to have and just take the returns, and if it goes south hes an easy drop

 

having watched him in person his 1st start, I wasn't very impressed, but thought it might be jitters, then facing Colorado 2x in a row, and the 2nd in Coors, that has made me and probably made himself that much more confident

 

If the Padres were intending on limiting his innings, then I don't think they would have brought him along right away

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8 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

 hes one of those guys that you just got lucky to have

 

Speaking of which, his nickname should be Lucky Lucchesi (in reference to the gangster Lucky Luciano)

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11 hours ago, disasterisk said:

 

nailed it!

Im right more than Im wrong, glad to be wrong on this one haha!  I took a flyer on him in my dynasty.

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i have yet to see this guy pitch on tv or any highlights..  what's his stuff like? anyone to compare him to?

 

 

Edited by phatrat
Bench Coach content removed

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22 hours ago, RyanM915 said:

i have yet to see this guy pitch on tv or any highlights..  what's his stuff like? anyone to compare him to?

 

 

 

a mix between Kershaw and Koufax

 

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22 hours ago, RyanM915 said:

i have yet to see this guy pitch on tv or any highlights..  what's his stuff like? anyone to compare him to?

 

 

Small samples 

 

The good

-Unorthodox, deceptive delivery that will take longer for the league to adjust to 

-Solid command, 4.00 K/BB ratio, 2.30 BB/9,  0.6 HR/9, 9.19 K/9, 1.02 WHIP 

-2.60 FIP/3.16 xFIP in 3 starts total, two starts in coors, FIP not really greatest indicator in small samples

-SwStr% is 13.3%, league average is 9.5% so thats a good sign. 

 

The Okay

-Averaging 90.3 MPH fastball 

-HartHit% is at 33.3% which is average to a little high

-1.55 GB/FB Ratio which is average. 

-2.81 BABIP, small sample but below average and would be expected to rise a little 

-86.7% strand rate, very high, he won't always get that lucky.

 

He has the Giants up next at Petco. Pitchers park and as a giants fan, our offense is DREADFUL. He is a solid stream choice at the least. I think the league will adjust to him midway but there have been some reasons to believe he could be rosterable for more than one start. His deceptive delivery will be harder for hitters to figure out. Every year there are low-mid range guys who end up being solid contributors. Whether its because the league doesn't have the book on him or not, we won't know for awhile. But I'm going to try and ride the wave and see if I can get some decent backend starts while hitters are adjusting and Luchessi has a short term leg up.

 

The other streamers/lotto tickets he has to compete with in my league (12 team h2h) are

-Tyler Mahle

-Tyson Ross 

-Zach Wheeler

-Skaggs is probably available in some of your leagues but not in myne right now

-Speculative Walker Buehler stash if he gets called up soon

 

I need to look deeper into some of those other guys but I feel like Luchessi will have a safer floor with his good command and deception, even if it only lasts for a few weeks. He's a good streamer against SF

Edited by loro1991
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3 minutes ago, loro1991 said:

Small samples 

 

The good

-Unorthodox, deceptive delivery that will take longer for the league to adjust to 

-Solid command, 4.00 K/BB ratio, 2.30 BB/9,  0.6 HR/9, 9.19 K/9, 1.02 WHIP 

-2.60 FIP/3.16 xFIP in 3 starts total, two starts in coors, FIP not really greatest indicator in small samples

-SwStr% is 13.3%, league average is 9.5% so thats a good sign. 

 

The Okay

-Averaging 90.3 MPH fastball 

-HartHit% is at 33.3% which is average to a little high

-1.55 GB/FB Ratio which is average. 

-2.81 BABIP, small sample but below average and would be expected to rise a little 

-86.7% strand rate, very high, he won't always get that lucky.

 

He has the Giants up next at Petco. Pitchers park and as a giants fan, our offense is DREADFUL. He is a solid stream choice at the least. I think the league will adjust to him midway but there have been some reasons to believe he could be rosterable for more than one start. His deceptive delivery will be harder for hitters to figure out. Every year there are low-mid range guys who end up being solid contributors. Whether its because the league doenst have the book on him or not, we won't know for awhile. But I'm going to try and ride the wave and see if I can get some decent backend starts while hitters are adjusting and Luchessi has a short term advantage.

 

A good take.  I think he's a future streamer.  Right now he's a ride the wave. Can't dump him, but doubt he will carry much value. In a dynasty league you might be able to sell him for a slow start mid round player.  

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4 minutes ago, loro1991 said:

Small samples 

 

The good

-Unorthodox, deceptive delivery that will take longer for the league to adjust to 

-Solid command, 4.00 K/BB ratio, 2.30 BB/9,  0.6 HR/9, 9.19 K/9, 1.02 WHIP 

-2.60 FIP/3.16 xFIP in 3 starts total, two starts in coors, FIP not really greatest indicator in small samples

-SwStr% is 13.3%, league average is 9.5% so thats a good sign. 

 

The Okay

-Averaging 90.3 MPH fastball 

-HartHit% is at 33.3% which is average to a little high

-1.55 GB/FB Ratio which is average. 

-2.81 BABIP, small sample but below average and would be expected to rise a little 

-86.7% strand rate, very high, he won't always get that lucky.

 

He has the Giants up next at Petco. Pitchers park and as a giants fan, our offense is DREADFUL. He is a solid stream choice at the least. I think the league will adjust to him midway but there have been some reasons to believe he could be rosterable for more than one start. His deceptive delivery will be harder for hitters to figure out. Every year there are low-mid range guys who end up being solid contributors. Whether its because the league doenst have the book on him or not, we won't know for awhile. But I'm going to try and ride the wave and see if I can get some decent backend starts while hitters are adjusting and Luchessi has a short term advantage.

To add to this - he was also the first pitcher called up from the minors, showing that the team has a lot of confidence that he is big league ready. He was fairly highly touted from what I understand. He has had two epic starts in a row with 0 ERA's and <1 whip. Both games also with more than 1k per inning. He looks like he could be a massive wire pickup but he should be long gone in all competitive leagues by now. 

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8 minutes ago, richg24 said:

To add to this - he was also the first pitcher called up from the minors, showing that the team has a lot of confidence that he is big league ready. He was fairly highly touted from what I understand. He has had two epic starts in a row with 0 ERA's and <1 whip. Both games also with more than 1k per inning. He looks like he could be a massive wire pickup but he should be long gone in all competitive leagues by now. 

 

Good insight, never thought of that. The padres want to start churning out contributors. If guys like Luchessi and Pirela show signs of promise you can bet the Padres will want to see what they got. 

 

I was just going to add that before I saw your post, you are correct, if he does well against the giants in Petco, which isn't unreasonable to think, he will be gone in pretty much every league worth a damn. 

 

Padres let him go 6 last time around in Coors, too. 

Edited by loro1991

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8 minutes ago, loro1991 said:

 

Good insight, never thought of that. The padres want to start churning out contributors. If guys like Luchessi and Pirela show signs of promise you can bet the Padres will want to see what they got. 

 

I was just going to add that before I saw your post, you are correct, if he does well against the giants in Petco, which isn't unreasonable to think, he will be gone in pretty much every league worth a damn. 

 

Padres let him go 6 last time around in Coors, too. 

 

 

I think in most competitive leagues he will be gone before Sunday's start.  After blanking a high-powered offense like Colorado @ Coors, there is plenty of reason for optimism against an anemic Giants offense at a pitcher's park.  If not owned by now, will definitely be an end of the week streamer and long gone.

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11 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

 

 

I think in most competitive leagues he will be gone before Sunday's start.  After blanking a high-powered offense like Colorado @ Coors, there is plenty of reason for optimism against an anemic Giants offense at a pitcher's park.  If not owned by now, will definitely be an end of the week streamer and long gone.

 

I also agree, there isn't a more obvious stream available. Tyson Ross vs. SF and King Felix vs. Oak are the only two I would put around the same tier. Felix more likely to go 6 but Luchessi more intriguing/likely you end up keeping him for a bit. Ross a dice roll with those K's last time around. Not super confident he goes 6, but he is betting on himself only wanting 1 year deals so he must believe he is healthy. PitchFX on his slider were bad, though, if I remember correctly. I like Luchessi's good floor, chance at a little upside more than those two, and the giants are terrible

Edited by loro1991
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tomorrow at home against the Giants?

 

 

I saw this write up from pitcherlist that isn't really encouraging./

 

Quote

In his third start of the season, Joey Lucchesi threw a gem of 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hit, 1 BBs, 8 Ks in Coors. Yes, in Coors. It came with 15 whiffs – a near 30% whiff rate on his curveball – and only allowed one hit off Nolan Arenado’s bat. This may be the outing that makes you say “Nick, my buddy, my dude, you have to get on board here.” Sorry, I just can’t do it. He’s a two-pitch pitcher with a 90mph heater that gives him such a low floor and without that third pitch, he will walk batters. A lot. I guess I don’t have a problem owning him at the backend of a 12-teamer, but I don’t see him ever touching Top 50 status – that curveball isn’t good enough to carry him on its own – which means I’m happier chasing other options. This just seems like an Amir Garrett situation instead of an Alex Wood, and I can see many of you now nodding your heads in understanding. Phew, glad we got there.

 

 

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1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

tomorrow at home against the Giants?

 

 

I saw this write up from pitcherlist that isn't really encouraging./

 

 

 

 

Have to use him at home in good matchups until the league catches up. There's definite concerns about his season-long viability with his current repertoire. However, in the short-term, deception will hold up until it doesn't.

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On 4/12/2018 at 12:44 PM, MrBrown said:

He's gone in most the leagues I'm in.  On WW in 1 league and I have a claim put in.  He won't make it to FA.  Unfortunately I started him for his 2 start week but then dropped him.  Now I want him back.  Used my WW claims in a couple leagues already. Used #1 claim to get him today.  Hopefully he continues.   These are deep leagues I play in.

 

I went with Luch but sasn't sure to pickup him Ross or because they both facing anemic SF offense (And I'm a giants fan). 

 

Luchessi has a chance to be more than a flash in the pan, I analyzed his stuff bottom of page 3

Edited by loro1991

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watching the game. 
i do wonder how he's doing it, but i'm glad i picked him up and started him

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Seems like a lot of mixed opinions here. 

 

You guy's see him as a must add break out candidate or likely to tail off sooner than later ? 

 

I'm impressed with him so far like most of us here. Tough call with one move left this week, both Lucchesi and Manaea available.

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