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Joey Lucchesi 2018 Outlook

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rotoprofessor..

 

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For your sake, let’s hope that you got in early on Joey Lucchesi because his price is going to continue to rise. On Sunday, he picked up his second victory of the season with six innings of one run ball against the Giants. Lucchesi limited San Francisco to just five hits as he struck out nine batters and saw his ERA drop to 1.66 through four starts. After a 1.79 ERA in Triple-A last season, 2.95 FIP, this was the logical next step for the southpaw, but things are going more smoothly than anyone could have been expected. Thanks to the multitude of prospects in San Diego’s system, Lucchesi has managed to fly under the radar, but don’t tell that to his opponents. With a 1.90 FIP and 2.63 xFIP, there is no reason to expect that this is a fluke; although don’t expect him to continue having success at this rate either.

 

 

fangraphs "Pitch Type" has him with 3 pitches, fastball (60.2%), curveball 12.8%), changeup (27.1%)

but then "Pitch Info Pitch Type" only has 2.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=19320&position=P

 

 

 

Edited by SpecialFNK
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https://friarsonbase.com/2018/04/16/san-diego-padres-joey-lucchesi-glavine/

 

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The San Diego Padres got another encouraging start from their rookie left-hander yesterday, but let’s talk about one inning in particular that stood out to me.

 

We need to talk about the San Diego Padres’ Joey Lucchesi and his fourth-inning performance against the San Francisco Giants yesterday. Indulge me, if you will.

As noted by FOX Sports San Diego’s one-of-the-best-in-baseball broadcast booth, Lucchesi throws a 78-79mph pitch that he grips like a circle-change but releases like a breaking pitch. It breaks like a curve but tumbles like a changeup. It’s awesome.

 

Andrew McCutchen led off the inning. This was the first pitch McCutchen saw, on the outside part of the plate, for a called strike. Lucchesi followed that up with an 89mph two-seamer that was high and outside; 1-1.

 

He threw the two-seam fastball again, again on the outside corner, this time for a swinging strike.

 

Cutch fouled back another “churve” (thank you, Mark Grant), then Lucchesi spiked what looked like a true-curve into the dirt for ball-two.

Joey Lucchesi then dropped that churvian nastiness on McCutchen once again, this time inside and had him flailing at it for strike three.

I watched that sequence at least four times. Know who I saw flashes of? Tom Glavine, mixing up locations with off-speed stuff and confusing hitters. A reach, you say? Walk with me, I implore you.

 

Nick Hundley singled in the next at-bat, then Lucchesi answered back by striking out Evan Longoria on an outside “churve”, after moving across the entire plate with his pitch sequence yet again.

 

Hunter Pence singled on a first-pitch fastball, right down Broadway, moving Hundley over and bringing Brandon Belt to the plate with two on and two outs. Rookie mistake.

 

Joey Lucchesi’s sequence to Belt went inside-churve (foul), inside-fastball (ball), then a churve that darted from the heart of the plate to the outside by the time it reached Belt for a called strike.

 

He then threw two consecutive balls, both high, but one outside and then one inside, before finishing him off, and the inning, with the exact same darting pitch he threw earlier in the at-bat.

 

Tom freaking Glavine.

 

 

this from after his start in Colorado..

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-joey-lucchesi-double-play-0411-story.html

 

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Two plays show who Padres rookie Joey Lucchesi is, will be

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Almost everything Joey Lucchesi did Tuesday night was impressive, especially for a 24-year-old making his third major league start.

 

He struck out eight, allowed just four hits and two unearned runs and took just 82 pitches to get into the seventh inning. He got to three balls in just three counts and threw 56 strikes overall in a 5-2 victory over the Colorado Rockies, earning his first big-league win.

 

Lucchesi has a deceptive windup, is accurate with his fastball and a pitch he calls a “churve” that has helped him to 15 strikeouts in his past 10 innings.

 

It is his unflappability, though, that has gotten him this far this fast – to the majors quicker than any other pitcher drafted in 2016 – and figures to serve him well going forward.

 

That nerve and ability to put troubles behind him were illustrated perhaps most succinctly and clearly in two plays Tuesday.

The first was an error in the first inning, in which he simply chunked an easy throw to first base.

 

Two batters later, Trevor Story hit a two-out, two-run homer.

 

Lucchesi recovered from that by retiring seven straight and nine of the next 10 batters he faced.

 

“I knew there was a lot of game left,” he said. “So I just locked it in and gave my team a chance to win.”

Further, what he did in the fifth inning, making an athletic grab of a hard grounder and turning and throwing to second base to start a double play, was eye-opening.

 

Lucchesi simply doesn’t get flustered.

 

“That happens to a ton of guys,” manager Andy Green said. “You see that a lot with young guys. They make an error in the first inning and they don’t turn around and throw a perfect feed later on in the game to the guy at second base to turn a double that was crucial. He did that.”

 

Lucchesi sounded like a 10-year veteran when he explained his ability to turn the page.

 

“I think it’s a learning thing that you go through if you play this game your whole life,” he said. “If you’re going to get upset, it’s just going to hurt you more.”

This is what has the Padres most inclined to believe what they see in Lucchesi is what they will always get.

 

“You have to enjoy watching him pitch,” Green said. “It should be exciting for fans to see him on the mound and watch him take steps forward and compete. He’s going to have some rough ones in him as time unfolds. But there’s a lot in him, there’s a lot of good things there.”

 

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He does have very good control but the home plate umpire was giving him a very friendly strike zone yesterday. I think the league catches up to him pretty quickly and doubt he has much value in a standard 12 team mixed league going forward as anything other than as a streamer. Obviously not going to be available in leagues to stream with all this hype around.

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20 hours ago, merlin401 said:

  But I guess sometimes deceptive guys always deceive (like a Josh Collmenter)

 

Josh Collmenter wasn't deceiving too many hitters last year. His bubble has well and truly burst.

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5 minutes ago, NZF said:

 

Josh Collmenter wasn't deceiving too many hitters last year. His bubble has well and truly burst.

 

That's because he lost 3 mph off his fastball, not because the deception didn't stop working

 

* In his good years ('11 - '13) his fastball was 87.4, 87.5, 87.5

* In 2014 his results were solid but his k-rate plummeted, and his fastball was 86.0

* Then he was bad after that when his fastball sat at 84.8, 84.3, 84.5

 

You can't lose 3 mph off your fastball when you are already well below league average, I don't care what sort of deception you have!

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1 hour ago, NZF said:

He does have very good control but the home plate umpire was giving him a very friendly strike zone yesterday. I think the league catches up to him pretty uickly and doubt he has much value in a standard 12 team mixed league going forward as anything other than as a streamer. Obviously not going to be available in leagues to stream with all this hype around.

 

?????

 

Ahem, sorry. What would lead you to believe that? Feels like some people see the word “deception” and immediately write a guy off if he wasn’t on a top 100 list. I’m more of a believer in stats myself, and the stats tell me no league has yet to catch up to him. Are there other pitchers out there that are better holds than this guy right now? He’s going to have bumps but no one should expect him to fall off completely.

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2 hours ago, NZF said:

He does have very good control but the home plate umpire was giving him a very friendly strike zone yesterday. I think the league catches up to him pretty quickly and doubt he has much value in a standard 12 team mixed league going forward as anything other than as a streamer. Obviously not going to be available in leagues to stream with all this hype around.

 

fwiw Hedges is listed as the best framer in the game, and when you are hitting your target continually, the strike zone always grows, thats not just with yesterday's umpire

 

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The rotographs podcast was down on him, but frankly they sounded like fools.  

 

The stats they cited were not even correct.   Said his curve is a show me curve and he only throws it 5 percent.  He throws it around 13 percent according to their own site and it's also his best pitch based on the pitch values on their site. Also said his fastball is bad.  Looks like a positive pitch value to me... 

 

It's amazing how much Eno was carrying that thing.  They wanted Ian Kennedy over him... Sheesh. 

Edited by kittenmittons
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It occurred to me that rotographs might have been recorded before his third start and explain some of the difference in stats.   Either way you have to be crazy to prefer Kennedy.  

 

At least lucchesi has upside here. 

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I've spent a little time trying to figure out what's going on here. It's still sort of a mystery to me though. I'm not sure how he never got drafted until a couple years ago out of college. He basically blazed right through A and AA straight to the majors.

 

I mean, you gotta figure MLB will adjust and figure him out at some point. On the other hand, he has good velocity and command as far as the eye test goes. He's only thrown 22 major league innings but his advanced metrics for that tiny sample seem to match the rest of the numbers. 69.3 contact% is top 5 range for the last couple years. Same for his 14.0 SwStr%.

 

Like I said, even after looking at it for a while, it's still sort of a mystery to me. Could be they'll figure him out, or maybe nothing will stop him until/if he gets hurt or something. Maybe someone else can shed more light on it.

Edited by Fiveohnine
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The skills are real for Lucchesi, at least so far.  14 percent swinging strike rate is no joke.  Rotographs is going to regret touting Chris Stratton and Kennedy with their crap 8.8 and 7 percent swinging strike rates over Lucchesi. 

 

Can't wait to watch him pitch again. 

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Thinking about trying to sell high in dynasty if that’s even possible with such a small successful sample size.  It’s just a weird case here where this can go either way.  

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San Diego seems to have excellent MiLB instructors.  It seems all their young callups have been a "hit" this year.  I really underestimated this team.  Lucchesi might be a hold IMO unless you have a clear need elsewhere (particularly Roto).  He is still getting better.

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4 minutes ago, STLSU said:

San Diego seems to have excellent MiLB instructors.  It seems all their young callups have been a "hit" this year.  I really underestimated this team.  Lucchesi might be a hold IMO unless you have a clear need elsewhere (particularly Roto).  He is still getting better.

 

Yeah they are really hitting a stride, pieces like Luchessi/Ross/Pirela/Villanueva looking like they could be solid contributors. Gotta give them props, I'm a giants fan and our FO/scouting/development is a travesty in comparison. SD is such a more exciting, talented team

Edited by loro1991
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8 minutes ago, reckoner said:

Anyone starting him in AZ tomorrow? 

 

No reason not to.

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AZ has been striking out a ton the last few games and I feel like they tend to have issues with lefties. So throw in a deceptive delivery they haven’t faced yet and it could likely result in a nice day for him. 

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4 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

what a matchup tomorrow

 

Corbin vs Lucchesi

 

It’s almost must see t.v. Never would of said that at the start of the year.

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looks like things fell apart in the 4th. sounds like based on people saying on twitter that he made mistakes, with an error and in pitching.

Edited by SpecialFNK

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58 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

looks like things fell apart in the 4th. sounds like based on people saying on twitter that he made mistakes, with an error and in pitching.

 

runner on 1st and 3rd with one out. Pollock tried to steal 2nd to take away the double play, and Lucchesi caught him running, but threw it over Hosmer's head. I think that error messed with him cause he asn't as on point after that 

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