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Jay Ajayi 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, ponza88 said:



Maybe I'm in the minority... but largely, in fantasy, the winning play isn't always 'going with group-think'.

 

Except you are in the majority when it comes to Miller and labeling him a bad player in a bad offense. Undervaluing him. I'll side with the non "group-think" on Miller. Same with Mixon.

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Just now, devaster said:

I mean... what other season would you base Mixon's talent on?

 

You're missing the point. I don't soley base my player likes and dislikes just from a season. There's a mutitude of factors.

 

- Offensive Line

- Offensive System

- Weapons on team (or lack thereof)

- SoS (scoff all you want guys)

- Eye test (very important!!! Make your own judgement calls)

 

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

 

Except you are in the majority when it comes to Miller and labeling him a bad player in a bad offense. Undervaluing him. I'll side with the non "group-think" on Miller. Same with Mixon.

 

Non-group think with Mixon eh? So he's gonna do worse than RB1-high2?

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1 minute ago, bgn3335 said:

was it just me or does he look skinnier/faster/lighter... maybe it was the socks making his legs look skinnier. 

 

It wasn't just you. The dude has been beasting his workouts all off-season.

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2 hours ago, atrium said:

As an Ajayi owner, I'd rather own: Gurley, Johnson, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley, Gordon, Fournette, Hunt, McCaffrey, Cook, D. Freeman, Bell, Howard, Mixon, McCoy, Collins, Drake, Miller, and R. Freeman.

 

So he's right around the RB20 range for me.

He could easily finish above half of those guys as apart from the top 7 or 8 backs they all have question marks. The best part about Ajayi is that he went after all of those running backs in fantasy drafts and yet his upside is arguably higher than several of them.

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1 minute ago, munde53 said:

He could easily finish above half of those guys as apart from the top 7 or 8 backs they all have question marks. The best part about Ajayi is that he went after all of those running backs in fantasy drafts and yet his upside is arguably higher than several of them.

 

Very arguably. I don't see anyone in the above list who has very low upside. He might be in the same tier as plenty, sure, but not by a sizable difference.

 

But the point I think for this argument isn't whether or not he'll return draft value its if game 1 makes him a sell-high. To be clear, I said I didn't believe he was a sell-high, but the argument is that, say if a Lamar Miller has a bad game in Week 1 would you already be willing to swap Lamar Miller for Jay Ajayi? I'm not there yet, I prefer Miller, but plenty on this thread will disagree. 

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15 minutes ago, Leopard said:

Ajayi's night can be simply described in one word: Fluke 

 

- Cory clement owner 

Remember when Clement went untouched for 21 yards then couldn't make a move to save his life in the open field to beat one defender?

 

Also, how can it be a fluke when he had similar production for the Eagles last year? How can it be a fluke when he has happened over and over again? Sure the touchdowns aren't going to be there every single week but his performance was far from a fluke. 

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Jay Ajayi, meet Corey Clement...your handcuff. 

 

I'm HOPING that the game plan is similar to last night with regards to rushing attempts. Meaning Clement never sees my lineup...But if something happens to Ajayi, I think Clement slides right into that same RB2/Flex mold. 

Edited by cutter311
RB2 not RB3...tho I suppose that's the same as flex

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Very arguably. I don't see anyone in the above list who has very low upside. He might be in the same tier as plenty, sure, but not by a sizable difference.

 

But the point I think for this argument isn't whether or not he'll return draft value its if game 1 makes him a sell-high. To be clear, I said I didn't believe he was a sell-high, but the argument is that, say if a Lamar Miller has a bad game in Week 1 would you already be willing to swap Lamar Miller for Jay Ajayi? I'm not there yet, I prefer Miller, but plenty on this thread will disagree. 

I think you're underselling Ajayi's upside but I agree that his floor is pretty low which is why he was going later than all of the other guys listed.

 

However, In my opinion Royce Freeman (unproven rookie, not sold on talent), Drake (could face a similar team issue as Ajayi), Collins (not sold on talent), McCoy (horrible team/line, could be suspended at any moment, now in the 30 year old RB downfall zone), Mixon (workload questions with Bernand still on team) , and McCaffrey (don't buy the workload projections, having Andre Ellington flashbacks) all have similar upside and floors in my opinion which is why they are being drafted where they are.

 

I drafted Miller in one league and I agree that if I had the decision between him and Ajayi that I would choose Miller at least right now. At the end of the year I would not be shocked in the slightest if Ajayi finished above Miller though.

 

On a side note it's kind of odd that three of these running backs (Ajayi, Drake, Miller) were all at one time starting running backs on the Dolphins. I guess drafting running backs is one of the only things the Dolphins can do right. 

 

To be clear, I own several of the backs listed above and I don't think their is a sizable difference between them but I can see how some people would come to that conclusion. 

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hes a solid rb2.  after last nights game, nothing has changed.  could you swap for him another rb2 in the same tier?  maybe.  but to be honest, if drake, freeman, miller, etc come out and put up a klunker week 1, i probably would be happy to hold ajayi.  maybe thats shortsighted, but like with all rbs in this tier, they will all have some good games and all have some not so great ones.  my preference is to have one of the guys thats part of a good offense, has a good offensive line and one that should see a good number of RZ and GL opps.  of the guys mentioned, miller might be next (i had him rated higher than ajayi but he got taken the pick before me), but hes a plodder who relies on volume over skill set, so its really a toss up and personal preference.  based on actually watching the game last night, i liked what i saw and i think there is room for improvement as the season goes on and philly gets some of their other offensive pieces back....

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26 minutes ago, munde53 said:

I think you're underselling Ajayi's upside but I agree that his floor is pretty low which is why he was going later than all of the other guys listed.

 

However, In my opinion Royce Freeman (unproven rookie, not sold on talent), Drake (could face a similar team issue as Ajayi), Collins (not sold on talent), McCoy (horrible team/line, could be suspended at any moment, now in the 30 year old RB downfall zone), Mixon (workload questions with Bernand still on team) , and McCaffrey (don't buy the workload projections, having Andre Ellington flashbacks) all have similar upside and floors in my opinion which is why they are being drafted where they are.

 

I drafted Miller in one league and I agree that if I had the decision between him and Ajayi that I would choose Miller at least right now. At the end of the year I would not be shocked in the slightest if Ajayi finished above Miller though.

 

On a side note it's kind of odd that three of these running backs (Ajayi, Drake, Miller) were all at one time starting running backs on the Dolphins. I guess drafting running backs is one of the only things the Dolphins can do right. 

 

To be clear, I own several of the backs listed above and I don't think their is a sizable difference between them but I can see how some people would come to that conclusion. 

 

I mean to each his own. I think Collins is 2x as talented as Ajayi, personally. Mixon I don't love but I'll take him ahead... and Christian McCaffery is nothing like Andre Ellington IMO.

 

I agree mostly with those other guys. 

 

But again, I don't think I'm underselling his upside. It's just a to each his own. I just think every single person there has upside. I don't love McCoy, but he has a lot of upside. I do prefer Ajayi at this point. And I do agree Royce is unproven, but he is more likely to become a bellcow without injury too. 

 

I have Collins and McCaffery as a clear tier above everyone you list. Including Ajayi. Everyone else I have in a similar-ish place. And Dion Lewis. I have Lewis/Lynch over or near a lot of guys on this list

 

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The threat to Miller though is once Foreman returns he will probably steal touches from Miller. Foreman looked good last year and was starting to take a pretty big chunk of Miller's work until he went down with injury 

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I would have drafted Lamar at the right spot, and would still own him at the right price, but what concerned me is the Trend:

 

YPC: 5.1, 4.5, 4.0, 3.7

TD: 8, 8, 5, 3

 

Those are all going the wrong way for me. As stated, nearly everyone after the top 8 or so have ? or blemishes of some sort. 

 

Listen, someone from RB12 to RB? will pop, and someone from RB1-12 will flop...it's what happens. We're all just hoping it IS and it ISN'T our guys

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9 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

The threat to Miller though is once Foreman returns he will probably steal touches from Miller. Foreman looked good last year and was starting to take a pretty big chunk of Miller's work until he went down with injury 

 

Foreman returning to 100% at any time this year should not be considered something that just "will happen." He's coming back from an incredibly serious injury that many people don't return 100% from. No one should be surprised to see Foreman remain on IR all year. Not saying it will happen, but it wouldn't even take a set-back. 

 

4 minutes ago, cutter311 said:

I would have drafted Lamar at the right spot, and would still own him at the right price, but what concerned me is the Trend:

 

YPC: 5.1, 4.5, 4.0, 3.7

TD: 8, 8, 5, 3

 

Those are all going the wrong way for me. As stated, nearly everyone after the top 8 or so have ? or blemishes of some sort. 

 

Listen, someone from RB12 to RB? will pop, and someone from RB1-12 will flop...it's what happens. We're all just hoping it IS and it ISN'T our guys

 

I expect him to perform better especailly in terms of fantasy points in a full season with Deshaun. 

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Miller has a higher floor than Ajayi but Ajayi has a way higher ceiling.

 

Is 20 TDs a likely scenario for Ajayi? No not even close. However, in that offense behind that line it’s possible. 

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I'm not a huge Ajayi fan.  But Its one game with a guy that missed two weeks of practice.  Hell he only got 2 full practices in.  I was actually encouraged he did a good job of picking up the blitz a couple of times and showed he was by far the superior runner.  All while the offense moved much better with him in the game.   Obviously he's not gonna score two tds a game but I see him getting 50-60 percent of the snaps at least.

 

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6 minutes ago, youngrice said:

I'm not a huge Ajayi fan.  But Its one game with a guy that missed two weeks of practice.  Hell he only got 2 full practices in.  I was actually encouraged he did a good job of picking up the blitz a couple of times and showed he was by far the superior runner.  All while the offense moved much better with him in the game.   Obviously he's not gonna score two tds a game but I see him getting 50-60 percent of the snaps at least.

 

 

He passed my eye-test when he played, however whenever I saw the dwarf Sproles i swore.  But hey...you got to respect the man for what he produces still.  Like you said, not a pass block liability yesterday and no stupid edge rushes for lost yardage, all straight ahead churning past contact yardage.  Usually hovers around 37-38% snaps, i'd be happy with 50% for this offense, especially with Wentz back and more red zones.

Edited by nosh0t

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7 minutes ago, youngrice said:

I'm not a huge Ajayi fan.  But Its one game with a guy that missed two weeks of practice.  Hell he only got 2 full practices in.  I was actually encouraged he did a good job of picking up the blitz a couple of times and showed he was by far the superior runner.  All while the offense moved much better with him in the game.   Obviously he's not gonna score two tds a game but I see him getting 50-60 percent of the snaps at least.

 

dunno about that snap take, but he got carries on over half his snaps. that's what's important. 

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11 minutes ago, youngrice said:

I'm not a huge Ajayi fan.  But Its one game with a guy that missed two weeks of practice.  Hell he only got 2 full practices in.  I was actually encouraged he did a good job of picking up the blitz a couple of times and showed he was by far the superior runner.  All while the offense moved much better with him in the game.   Obviously he's not gonna score two tds a game but I see him getting 50-60 percent of the snaps at least.

 

That's what I noticed as well. Good think is, he earned "more touches" (per the HC) and next he gets to face TB on 9 days rest...Firing him up next week...I'll be interested to see what the Market is on him once Tuesday rolls around. 

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12 minutes ago, panthers93 said:

dunno about that snap take, but he got carries on over half his snaps. that's what's important. 

I'm not sure about the exact number but I think he was close to 50 percent if not above of the snaps second half.  I mean he was barely in first half and still finished with 38 percent

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4 hours ago, Farfromhome said:

Crazy how all over the board people are on this guy.... This great game of fantasy football comes down to stats... I feel some think 20 rbs get 300 carries and 20 rbs get 10plus tds....FACT...only two rbs hit double digit rushing tds last year...FACT...only 8 rbs had 250plus carries...its only one game but ajayi is on pace for both even being limited on snaps....i don't understand the problem....he should get 8 tds in the next 15 games.. That alone is elite #2 RB stats in fantasy

 

I completely agree with you Ajayi, and I find your avatar a very wonderful thing.

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18 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

 

I completely agree with you Ajayi, and I find your avatar a very wonderful thing.

X3....and he did it in one half basically.   

Mid to high end rb2 season incoming 

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I'd like to see the snap count for the second half of the game because......you know......that's when the Eagles actually moved the ball because Ajayi was in. 

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