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Jared Goff 2018 Outlook

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7 hours ago, jwilsonxo said:

While I'm not doubting the bears defense is good, I feel we should look at who they've played, or rather who they haven't played so far.

 

Seahawks, Cards, Bucs, Fins (Lost), Jets, Bills, Lions, Vikes, Lions, Giants (Lost). I would say these offenses are well below average. When the Bears have played against great offenses like New England and Green Bay, they have lost and were scored on.

 

That schedule is soft. No rams, chiefs, saints, Steelers, chargers, Falcons, Texans..even Dallas or Philly. I think they're fortunate. 

 

 

Firing up Goff. With Lamar Jackson as a plan B, if needed.


I do think the Bears schedule has helped to a degree. Some of the teams they have played are lacking at the offensive skill positions, and that's helped the defense put up good numbers.

 

However, I would disagree saying that the Seahawks, Bucs and Vikings have offenses that are "well below average". The Bucs are #1 in yards per game - and 10th in PPG. The Seahawks are 19th in yards but 9th in PPG. And the Vikings are about average (16th yards & 18th PPG).

 

Also when the Bears lost to the Dolphins and Pats, Khalil Mack was playing injured - which led to them sitting him for 2 games directly afterwards.

 

4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

One factor you have not yet discussed--the mad genius Matt Nagy.

 

Unlike a normal coach, if Nagy gets a lead, he will not pound the run to sit on the ball and run down the clock.  Instead, he will keep passing passing passing.  

 

So even if Chicago's D is dominating early, there will still be plenty of plays for Goff to rack up passing stats.

 

McVay will want to obliterate the Bears if he can, to send a message to the world about who the real genius is.  And the Bears just lost their last game and gave up 30 points--against Eli Manning.


The Bears gave up 30 points to the Giants as a team, not Eli Manning. Remember, the first touchdown came just two offensive plays into the game, when Chase Daniel threw a Pick 6. That wasn't the fault of the Bears defense. In addition, the Gabriel fumble deep in Chicago's territory led to the Giants getting an easy FG as well. So that's 10 points that were in no way attributable to Chicago's defense. In addition, Odell tossed a TD pass on a trick play, though that of course still fully counts on the D's watch (not on Eli's though). Overall, 20 points allowed on defense is a lot better than 30. 

 

Edited by Corleone

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On 12/4/2018 at 11:45 AM, Corleone said:

 

Agreed that it is a tough matchup for Goff. Playing at Chicago, which is the second-toughest defense for QB's to score fantasy points against this season, is no picnic. Here are some numbers I looked up about Chicago's defense against QB's this season...

 

--Just one 300+ yard passing game (to, ahem, Brock Osweiler...go figure)

--Just three QB's to get as many as 3 TD's (Rodgers in Week 1, Osweiler in Week 6, Brady in Week 7; Khalil Mack was banged up in Weeks 6 & 7)

--Just three QB's to get as many as 20 fantasy points (the three QB's mentioned above; this is with 6 points per TD, and 1 point per 30 pass yards)

--Have held five QB's to single digit fantasy points (granted, this is not an elite list of QB's: Bradford, Fitzpatrick, Peterman, Stafford, Eli)

--Have allowed 20 total QB TD's (both passing & rushing) compared to 17 interceptions. When you're that close to zero, that's really good.

 

Of course the Rams and Goff are not just any old team and QB. They have the ability to succeed against good teams. For teams without decent backup options on their team (or WW), I can understand hoping for the best. But for those with a capable backup in reserve, I can understand leaving Goff on the bench. As an example, in one of my leagues (regular 1QB format), I'm going with Winston (against the Saints) over Goff. 

 

14 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

Additional information noted during my research towards trying to decide if Goff would be worth starting at Chicago...

 

Goff Home PPG totals (6 games) - 19.81, 25.69, 30.19, 30.60, 41.02, 48.80

Goff Road PPG totals (6 games) - 4.55, 6.83, 14.58, 18.93, 19.68, 34.02

 

Home he has scored over 25 points in 5 of 6 games.

Road he has scored under 20 points in 5 of 6 games.

 

One final point against playing Goff, in addition to the above posts...

 

I mentioned above that the Bears have allowed just 3 QB's to hit 20 fantasy points. To put that into context, that's tied for the second-best number in football, as I finished checking the numbers for all 32 teams (the Chargers are #1, having allowed just 2 QB's to hit 20). 

 

In addition, I mentioned the Bears have allowed 20 total QB TD's (both passing & rushing) compared to 17 interceptions. So that's a +3. That is the best for all defenses in the NFL (they are one of only 12 teams in single digits in that category, through Week 13). 

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2 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

 

One final point against playing Goff, in addition to the above posts...

 

I mentioned above that the Bears have allowed just 3 QB's to hit 20 fantasy points. To put that into context, that's tied for the second-best number in football, as I finished checking the numbers for all 32 teams (the Chargers are #1, having allowed just 2 QB's to hit 20). 

 

In addition, I mentioned the Bears have allowed 20 total QB TD's (both passing & rushing) compared to 17 interceptions. So that's a +3. That is the best for all defenses in the NFL (they are one of only 12 teams in single digits in that category, through Week 13). 

Yeah outside of that road Saints game (perfect game script in 2nd H) he's been very average on the road.

It's tough to sit him because of his ceiling in that offense, but another stinker would not be a surprise outcome here...

I am going Dak over him in 1 league-

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6 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah outside of that road Saints game (perfect game script in 2nd H) he's been very average on the road.

It's tough to sit him because of his ceiling in that offense, but another stinker would not be a surprise outcome here...

I am going Dak over him in 1 league-

 

Dak scares me on a regular basis, but hopefully it works out. The matchup Goff is facing has a lot of us doing things we might not normally do on an average week. We've just gotta go with our guts and hope for the best (and perhaps pray that Goff doesn't somehow forget he's not at home)!

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I considered the Manning thing too but Manning's stats were not very good.  It was all Barkley and the ODB trick play.  But I do agree there can be holes to exploit.  I'm rolling Goff.

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4 minutes ago, Tax77 said:

It was in the mid to low 20s tonight. December on the lakes is kinda rough :D

California boys like it a little bit warmer.JaredGoff-Froyo-900x505.jpg

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3 minutes ago, WaiverHero said:

We’re not worried about next week are we? Back in LA where we consider it cold if it goes to 65

Im not. I mean, I am, sort of, but they should bounce back hard and be angry. And what am i going to do, pick up ww trash to stream over him week 15?

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23 minutes ago, oresteszero said:

How many seasons were ended because of Goff last night ? Man he looked bad all around ..

 

Hopefully a few less, if anyone took some of the advice posted above in this thread regarding Goff's matchup. With that said, he looked even worse than anyone could have anticipated. 

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He looked awful - a game like last night is really when you miss Cupp.  Cooks is such a lousy WR1, too small and gadgety.

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1 hour ago, oresteszero said:

How many seasons were ended because of Goff last night ? Man he looked bad all around ..

Not a good time to throw up a stinker. 

That is two horrible games in a row at a time in the fantasy season that where it means so much, and he blows it

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3 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

He looked awful - a game like last night is really when you miss Cupp.  Cooks is such a lousy WR1, too small and gadgety.

Kupp wouldn’t made any difference... 

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28 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Kupp wouldn’t made any difference... 

I agree - given how bad Goff looked in the face of that pass rush and how jittery/scared he looked in the pocket all night.  He was rushing out errant throws that were nowhere near receivers, throwing ducks in the grass.  Missed Woods a few times on easy intermediate completions.  Goff looked like flat out garbage last night and that's with Tribusky trying to lose the game on the other side as well.

Edited by JetsAwesome

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goff is good in college atmosphere like situations. shootout games, warm weather, no defense.

 

in real like nfl atmosphere, he is third if not fourth tier.

 

however, given the bearish feelings the media will have on goff this week, goff is a must start sunday night at home vs the eagles. i expect this to be a big 10 shootout vibe. not a big 12 shootout like lar vc kc, but 2 levels below.

 

i am bullish. buy the dip. 

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Philly has one of the absolute worst secondary's.

Freaking Dak Prescott (certified bum) just threw for 455 yards. 

This game is back in LA with it's beautiful weather and with a Rams team that will feel the need to show people whats up. 

I will be starting.

May God have mercy on my soul.  

Edited by HTM

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3 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Kupp wouldn’t made any difference... 

 

Why would you think this?  He is the one Goff has leaned on when the going gets tough and he has made some of the toughest contested catches out of all the WRs on this team.  Woods makes some fantastic plays but its Kupp that is probably their best all around WR that Goff has a connection with.  When everything falls apart around him, he had no one he could lean on.  He threw his final two passes to Gerald freaking Everret which tells you everything you need to know about the Rams WR last night. 

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4 hours ago, mongidig said:

I think the lesson is Don't play Goff if it is cold or he has an obvious good matchup.

 

And fade QBs @ Chicago

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