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2018 Rotoworld Mock Real League


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7 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

how is that parker video more than 15 seconds long?

 

replays haha ... however: 

 

"After getting hammered by Adam Gase during the 2016 preseason for not showing enough dedication, Parker has now had glowing reports over the last two offseasons. While many will roll their eyes at the news, Parker has been extremely productive when on the field. There have been 25 games in his career where he's totaled at least five targets, and in those games he's averaged 68.2 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game, which amount to low-end WR2 numbers. Keep in mind that was with Jarvis Landry on the field, who is now in Cleveland. There's a realistic opportunity for Parker to see 120-plus targets if he stays healthy, and that would almost guarantee WR2/3 production out of him with a higher ceiling than most want to admit. At his current cost of WR39 in early ADP, Parker is one of the biggest steals at the wide receiver position."

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/players/devante-parker.php

 

2018 - this is the year of Devante. 

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Taken out of context, this sounds like backroom chatter on the dark web that should land at least 4 people in jail, 5 if you count me for reading it.   And now it's time for me to come in an

These are the debates I wish this group would have after every pick.  Far more to learn here than dredging through the trash can threads on the regular forum.

how is that parker video more than 15 seconds long?

So for my analysis:

 

Alvin Kamara: what’s not to like? I would have preferred Zeke, DJ or Saquon but I knew the first two weren’t likely falling. Saquon however, was a possibly. Kamara isn’t the workhorse bellcow typically picked this early but whatever. Mark Ingram is suspended to start the season so touches will, I assume, be greater in the first 4 weeks. He averaged close to 100 yards a game last year. I expect TDs will be no less than 8 with the possibility of him reaching last years total. I don’t see yardage falling off at all unless there’s an injury. I am more than comfortable with him as my #1 pick. 

 

Jerick McKinnon: A bit of a risky pick when considering he’s never been a teams #1. But Shanahan is his coach..... People say he’s undersized but he’s essentially the same build as Devonta Freeman. I expect he’ll be a workhorse with no less than 300 touches. I used to err on the side of caution and would have picked someone like Shady here but caution doesn’t win this league. The fact that Shanahan didn’t try to sign another RB or draft one says something about his opinion and game plan for McKinnon. I’m not worried about him being in a RBBC. 

 

Doug Baldwin: just taking a guess here. But 175+ targets are gone from last year with Graham and Richardson. Doug rebounds increasing targets, receptions, yards and TDs. As always, I like “durable” players and he’s a model for that playing all but two games in his career. Plug and play for me. 

 

Demaryius Thomas: He may be 30 but he’s got the best QB play with Keenum since Manning left. I said it earlier but he’s posted 86/1050 over the past two years. That will without a doubt increase with Case Keenum. He’s also played every game since 2012. 

 

Greg Olsen: I never know when I’m going to target a TE in a draft. At this point, I wasn’t a fan of any other players so I took trusty old Olsen. I’m banking on his play last year stemming from the broken ankle. Carolina just signed him to an extension so everything is likely good. And did I mention Norv Turner is in town? 

 

Chris Hogan: Amendola and Cooks are ourtof town. Edelman may be suspended. He’ll likely be a boom/bust but should be a god RZ target on the outside. I wanted a RB here but ultimately chose not to reach. I don’t think 70/1000/10 is out of reach. 

 

Isaiah Crowell: CAWCAW for the 2nd year in a row. At my 6th pick, I wanted a RB bad but couldn’t justify the reach knowing one would likely be available at the next pick. My first option was Jamaal Williams. Next Crow. Williams upside is higher but I’m not so sure he’ll keep the starting job. Or that it won’t be a full blown RBBC. Crow is the last RB left with a better than 60% chance to reach 250+ touches. Maybe I hit a gem. Maybe I drafted the same turd from a year ago. 

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12 minutes ago, Ryan81 said:

So for my analysis:

 

Chris Hogan: Amendola and Cooks are ourtof town. Edelman may be suspended. He’ll likely be a boom/bust but should be a god RZ target on the outside.

 

He's a decent player, but this might be pushing it...

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I think my side is probably the biggest boom/bust of the entire draft so far,  mostly because the vast majority of my players are in new situations or are going into the season with some question marks. 

 

Kareem Hunt - Was the best RB on the board at this stage based on my rankings and while there is going to be uncertainty over usage I expect him to be pretty productive  this season. I would expect with Mahomes they are going to lean on the run a bit more too, but I do think that people underestimate how good Ware is too and its likely he vultures a lot of work. I was considering Dalvin Cook, however his injury history pushed me towards Hunt. 

 

Aaron Rodgers - Early, but I did not think he would make it back. Drafting at the back of the draft this year is pretty tough with all the value at at the 2.12/3.01 turn. 6pts passing, bonus for 300 yards, small benches and 14 team league made this worth the plunge IMO

 

Rashad Penny - I think Seattle could be a disaster this year and really have no idea what to expect at this point, but it looks like is potentially going to be used as a three down back. I am predominantly a dynasty player these days, and have been targeting Penny quite heavily because I like his situation, talent and where he went in the draft. 

 

Alex Collins - I was looking to grab Ertz here but was sniped, for the same reasons that I went in on Rodgers. Collins comes with some risk in what I think is a crowded back field that may see him lose the job or work this year. Good chance it ends up in a RBBC. His production over the second half of the season was outstanding though and I have to think that if he can carry that into this year then he is a steal where I got him. 

 

Michael Crabtree - No idea what to expect this year, I think he may struggle as the WR1 drawing the better coverage all the time. I felt he was the best WR on the board at this stage and also the clear WR1 on his team. At this point of the draft I am just looking for players who I expect will get targets. 

 

Corey Davis - Changes to coaching staff have set the Titans up for a different sort of year I think. A huge unknown at the moment, but the WR1 on his team with an O that looks to be on the up. Talented player who I am trying to snap up in Dynasty leagues everywhere at the moment, there is potential for a top 12 season out of this guy if he gets fed the ball a bit more. May also sit there collecting dust on the bench after week 3 if it ends up being more of the same from the Titans this year (I doubt it)

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11 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Drew Brees.

 

This was not the plan.  Snakes pressure you into taking players that present value you can't pass up, even though you don't want to own them.

 

9 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

@1972Miamidolphins you’re OTC

 

@FFCollusion Drew Brees wasnt one of my targets but at pick 90? Definitely. 

 

Brees is a stud, but for fantasy football - do you consider last year to be an aberration, or a now permanent change in the offense's pass/run ratio?

 

Remember, the Saints just had their best season in a long time with Brees throwing 100 fewer passes. Coming after years of going 7-9 with Brees throwing ~600+.

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Deandre Hopkins:  In my opinion, the best individual receiver in the game.  Great hands, and can break some ankles.  One of my favorite receivers to watch.  It was between him and Fournette

 

Aj Green:  Was surprised to see how low his adp is on ffcalculator.  I think he is serious value this season and enjoy having him as my wr2.

 

Deshaun Watson:  Honestly, there wasn't many players available that really excited me at this pick and decided to buy into Deshauns upside.  It can be a tough pill to swallow by taking a qb this early, but the deciding point was to be able to pair him with Hopkins.  Looking forward to seeing this duo in action.

 

Marshawn Lynch:  I did a little research in between picks and noticed Beast Mode took a pay cut to stay in Oakland and quietly put up 1000 total yards last season only missing one game due to suspension.  I needed a running back I felt I could start on a weekly basis because there looks like a huge drop off in what is available.

 

Jarvis Landry:  bitter that FFC sniped me with that Carlos Hyde pick.  Decided to go with Landry in hopes he keeps doing what he's done.  Not much else on this pick

 

Julian Edelman:  Even with the potential suspension, great Wr4 as one of Brady's go to guy.  Willing to ride out the suspension and believe he is over his act tear.

 

Jacksonville D:  I wanted them on my team before the draft started.  It's a real conservative pick, but hey, we all have to start a defense each week.  Not afraid to reach for an elite defense that was a game changer last season.  

 

 

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6 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

 

Brees is a stud, but for fantasy football - do you consider last year to be an aberration, or a now permanent change in the offense's pass/run ratio?

 

Remember, the Saints just had their best season in a long time with Brees throwing 100 fewer passes. Coming after years of going 7-9 with Brees throwing ~600+.

 

I think last year was by design.  I think Brees is declining.  Granted, a declining Brees is still a top 10 QB, but... I dunno.  Zero confidence and feel like I'm getting sucked into name value over fantasy production.

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1 minute ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I think last year was by design.  I think Brees is declining.  Granted, a declining Brees is still a top 10 QB, but... I dunno.  Zero confidence and feel like I'm getting sucked into name value over fantasy production.

 

I wasn't really knocking the pick, but it was a question worth asking.

 

On the bright side, Ingram suspended for the first 3 games guarantees you a good start from Brees -- especially with him playing 2 of the first 3 games at home, against mediocre defenses like the Browns and Buccaneers. He'll light them up. 

 

I don't think his game has declined, but the play-calling has changed. He doesn't have a great WR to throw to (Thomas is good, but not 'great'). So i'm leaning towards 2018 Brees being closer to 2017 than 2014-2016. Just my gut feeling.

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