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14 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

I wasn't really knocking the pick, but it was a question worth asking.

 

On the bright side, Ingram suspended for the first 3 games guarantees you a good start from Brees -- especially with him playing 2 of the first 3 games at home, against mediocre defenses like the Browns and Buccaneers. He'll light them up. 

 

I don't think his game has declined, but the play-calling has changed. He doesn't have a great WR to throw to (Thomas is good, but not 'great'). So i'm leaning towards 2018 Brees being closer to 2017 than 2014-2016. Just my gut feeling.

 

It’s not just that the run game is good, it’s also that the Saints have a good defense.  Good defense + good run game mean less volume for a quarterback. 

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Taken out of context, this sounds like backroom chatter on the dark web that should land at least 4 people in jail, 5 if you count me for reading it.   And now it's time for me to come in an

These are the debates I wish this group would have after every pick.  Far more to learn here than dredging through the trash can threads on the regular forum.

how is that parker video more than 15 seconds long?

8 minutes ago, Ryan81 said:

Just realized @ZidaneValor took two QBs already. That’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Care to let us in on that decision? 

 

Maybe best player available is what he’s looking at and would rather secure value in Wentz for a trade? That’s the only pro I can think of doing that. 

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Just now, boltup15 said:

 

Maybe best player available is what he’s looking at and would rather secure value in Wentz for a trade? That’s the only pro I can think of doing that. 

 

Brady is at the end of his career. All QBs fall off a cliff eventually. Remember Peyton and favre in their final years, they looked pretty ugly.

 

I thought it was good drafting.

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Just now, predator_05 said:

 

Brady is at the end of his career. All QBs fall off a cliff eventually. Remember Peyton and favre in their final years, they looked pretty ugly.

 

I thought it was good drafting.

 

I don’t know. Drafting 2 QB’s that early isn’t a strategy I could ever agree with. QB position isn’t scarce, many streamable options, you only start one QB and we start two flex in a deep league. 

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3 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Brady is at the end of his career. All QBs fall off a cliff eventually. Remember Peyton and favre in their final years, they looked pretty ugly.

 

I thought it was good drafting.

I think it’s questionable. I did the same thing my first year drafting Romo and Kaepernick thinking I could use one as trade bait. I did trade Kaep for Hakeem Nicks. Hindsight is definitely 20/20. 

 

This league is too savvy to draft 2 QBs that early thinking trade bait imo. I feel he has a different plan. 

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1.10 - Julio Jones; was thinking of going Melvin Gordon here since he has been getting a lot of touches for many years but Julio is as consistent as it gets. 

 

2.05 - Rob Gronkowski; this year’s tight end class isn’t the best and I believe Gronk will give me a big positional advantage in every matchup. However looking at how this draft played out I wouldn’t have minded to draft someone like Freeman.

 

3.08 - Adam Thielen; due for positive TD regression as the WR1 for the Vikings. I’m a big fan of his skills and think he’ll command a 25% target share.

 

4.05 - Sony Michel; since Alex Collins (to me a safer choice due to a certain role and volume) was taken, I wanted to go with upside, and pick 31 in the NFL draft to the Patriots is exactly what I’m looking for. As they try to prolong Tom Brady’s career while playing in the weakest division they’ve probably ever seen, I expect good volume and a lot of touch downs. 

 

5.08 - Royce Freeman; I love the talent and don’t see Booker as a threat. As the season goes on he could get Kareem Hunt type volume from last year. 

 

6.05 - Randall Cobb; we’ve seen his upside, no Jordy, he can easily be a low end WR 2. Not much competition for targets. 

 

7.08 - Emmanuel Sanders; underrated. Volume will be there and Broncos defense is downgraded. He’s probably good for 130 targets again. He’ll be my second flex and will help me have a strong lineup to start the season. 

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I love this draft. Through the first 7.5 rounds, pred has taken 6 RBs while Dolphins has taken 1. Zidane has taken 2 QBs. And only 3 teams have taken all 4 positions (may change through the end of this round). 

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50 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I don’t know. Drafting 2 QB’s that early isn’t a strategy I could ever agree with. QB position isn’t scarce, many streamable options, you only start one QB and we start two flex in a deep league. 

 

That's true, but at 6 points per pass TD, QB is a valuable position. Moreso than WR, which you can find on the waiver wire. A top 5 QB wins you games in this league.

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5 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

That's true, but at 6 points per pass TD, QB is a valuable position. Moreso than WR, which you can find on the waiver wire. A top 5 QB wins you games in this league.

 

Ehh. I drafted TY Hilton and Sammy Watkins last year (prior to the trade to the Rams) and my first QB was Andy Dalton and I made the playoffs. 6 pts vs 4 pts passing TD’s really doesn’t make a difference, it’s still the same game when it comes to QB’s.

 

6 pt TD’s

Aaron Rodgers - 22.9 ppg

Jay Cutler - 15.2 points ppg

Difference - 7.7 ppg

 

4 pt TD’s

Aaron Rodgers - 18.5 ppg

Jay Cutler - 11.3 ppg

Difference - 7.2 ppg

 

So from Rodgers to Cutler, the difference in points in Td’s resulted in a .5 difference. 

 

6 pt Td’s

Tom Brady - 22.5 ppg

Matt Ryan - 18.7 ppg

Differencd - 3.8 ppg

 

4 pt TD’s

Tom Brady 18.2 ppg

Matt Ryan - 14.3 ppg

Difference - 3.9 ppg

 

Difference is .1 ppg

 

Just saying. Maybe this math is flawed and the settings I’m looking at are wrong, but from the looks of it the ppg advantage for QB’s in 6 pt TD vs 4 pt TD’s looks extremely minimal. 

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PPG has always been a misleading stat for me because this is a weekly game. 

 

QB being the highest scoring position for me means that you want consistency at the position. Nothing worse that Roeth sitting there putting up 16 points a week and then blowing up for that odd 40 point game that lifts his PPG stat. 

 

Also if you are looking at pure VBD, the points differential over an entire season is quite different when its 6pts vs 4pts

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5 minutes ago, PackersFan1979 said:

Also if you are looking at pure VBD, the points differential over an entire season is quite different when its 6pts vs 4pts

 

6 pt Td’s

Tom Brady - 359.6 points

Matt Ryan - 299.1 points

Difference - 60.5 points

 

4 pt TD’s

Tom Brady - 291.8

Matt Ryan - 228.1

Difference - 63.7 points

 

3.2 extra points over the course of the season, difference between two QB’s was actually larger in 4 pt TD’s...

 

11 minutes ago, PackersFan1979 said:

 

PPG has always been a misleading stat for me because this is a weekly game

 

 

Not sure what to say to that. I just showed math showing how 6 pt TD settings for QB’s barily moves the needle for giving better QB’s a better advantage vs lesser QB’s and the response is “ppg is a misleading stat.” 

 

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Its IS a misleading stat. 

 

Who would you rather have? The guy who scores 25 points a week 12 times out of 16? Or the guy who scores 16 points a week 10 times out of 16 and has 2-3 massive blowups, probably from your bench? You would find their PPG differential is not that high, but if your QB is the second guy you are at a huge disadvantage week to week. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

Just saying. Maybe this math is flawed and the settings I’m looking at are wrong, but from the looks of it the ppg advantage for QB’s in 6 pt TD vs 4 pt TD’s looks extremely minimal. 

 

I'll set aside the 4pt vs 6pt debate, and just discuss the difference between last years #1 QB in this league and its 14th QB, was 135 fantasy points.  8.4 PPG.

That's just to show the importance of what a QB can potentially offer in this specific league.

 

8.4 PPG  is the difference of owning last year's #3 WR overall, Keenan Allen (17.8 PPG) and #39 WR Paul Richardson (9.4 PPG). (Full point PPR)

8.4 PPG is the difference of owning last year's #4 RB overall, Kareem Hunt (18.6 PPG) and #24 RB Buck Allen (10.2 PPG) (Full point PPR)

 

135 fantasy points is a week and a half worth of  points in this league.

That advantage alone, is like playing a 14.5 week season vs your opponents 16 games.

Granted, you should hypothetically hold an advantage over them, at another position, but it's not worth going into all that.

 

Although... The difference between last years #1 DEF to #14 DEF was 83 points, and we all scoff at DEF.  Although that has to do with predictability more than anything.

Only 45 points between #1 and #14 Kickers.

92 points between #1 TE and #14 TE.

81 Points between #1 WR and #14 WR.

179 Points between #1 RB and #14 RB.

 

The confusion comes when we attempt to apply this to a draft.  If they all offer the same PPG advantage (sans RB) but #1 and #14 RB are only drafted 1 round apart whereas #1 QB and #14 QB are drafted about 10 rounds apart, same for TEs.  Kickers are drafted in the last round. Defenses are drafted about 7 rounds apart, but I'm unaware of any solid data that has correlated ADP to fantasy production for DEF.

 

How you weigh those is up to you.  But at the end of the day, positional PPG advantages are what win you games in individual weeks.  Total points.  Your win/loss column doesn't have a clue or care what position they came from.  

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1.07: Antonio Brown.

Didn't think he was going to fall to me.  I was already trying to decide how to rank the RBs I expected to be there.  I had them Fournette, Kamara, Hunt, and no one else was even in my consideration.  When Brown fell to me, it was a no brainer.  #7 RB overall, or the #1 WR for 4 years running, with no signs of slowing down.  I think my RB rankings will be Bell, Gurley, Zeke, DJ and then I slide AB in at 5.

 

2.08: Keenan Allen

I wanted Gronk, without question.  When he was gone I enjoyed the thought of being a contrarian.  In an alternate world, this is an easy LeSean McCoy pick for me.  I spent a lot of time trying to decide if Evans or Allen was the right pick, and wasn't able to decide.  Evans has been so up and down, but Allen is such an injury risk.  PPR I like Allen, Standard I prefer Evans.  In our half point PPR I was actually split, but let recency bias push me towards Allen, especially when I realized how young he still is and the loss of <their TE> which could lead to even more targets.

 

3.07: Josh Gordon

After doing more research, I actually think this was a bad pick.  I'm excited to have him in this league, because it's unlikely I'll own him anywhere else this year, and I like to have at least 1 share, so I can enjoy the show.  I've gone to bat for Tyrod for multiple years now and he hasn't let me down.  But... he's still a legitimate ceiling to a WRs upside, and everyone knows I love Landry so this is tough.  In a more serious draft, I would have followed up my 2.08 LeSean McCoy with Jay Ajayi right here.  But I was tempted by a Zero WR mentality because I like to play around with things and experiment.  As mentioned in the Gordon thread, his price is going to consistently rise in my opinion right up until draft day.  This is an overpay, but likely the lowest price you'll ever see him go for, for the rest of the season.  Drafting him as my 3rd WR lessens the sting slightly, but that might just be bad draft analysis on my part.

 

4.08: Lamar Miller

I like Lamar Miller... well, I use to.  But then I defended him for 2 or 3 years and he's made me look bad for 2 or 3 years, and it's hard to feel good about this pick.  BUT... there were signs of life with D.Watson and the offense as a whole.  He's going to get the workload, what's his name suffered an Achilles injury, and after going WR, WR, WR I needed a RB who I can trust to touch the ball consistently and regularly.  How effective he can be when he touches it, is definitely up for debate.  It's odd... in the Miller thread I said I would prefer to have Ingram for 12 games than Miller for 16.  I think I stand by that comment, and would rank Ingram ahead of Miller even today.  BUT as I've said many times on these forums... we do not draft in a vacuum.  The loss of Ingram for 3-4 weeks has significantly larger effect on your season in a 14 team league, than it does in a 10 or 12.  Compound that by the fact that I'm drafting him as my #1 RB off the board and it's even more important for me to have someone I can confidently play week 1.  Whereas if I go Ingram here, who knows who I'm starting week 1, as I wasn't confident Hyde was going to make it to me in the 5th round, which could have left me with my starting 2 RBs being two timeshare or CoP backs from the 8th~12th rounds.  There were no other RBs in this round I would have even considered and to be frank, if Fitzgerald fell to me, I would have taken my 4th straight WR.  Brandin Cooks would have made me think long and hard and I'm not sure which way I would have gone honestly.  I also strongly considered Jimmy Graham here but while I like JimmyG I'm not sure how much I'd notice his points vs Olsen or Rudolph who were both still around, so I decided to wait.

 

5.07: Carlos Hyde

I was the highest person on the board for Carlos Hyde last year, ranking him 8th or 9th among RBs long before the season started.  I could argue that the Browns are actually a better team than the 9ers were coming into last years.  Garrapolo made them significantly better, but oddly enough there is no statistical difference between what Hyde did before/after Garrapolo.  While the Browns are a better team than the 9ers, that doesn't automatically make it a better situation.  They drafted the rookie, Duke is there, and Browns gunna Brown.  Hyde is an oft injured player, but when healthy has shown top 10 RB prowess in my opinion, regularly.  It's easy to say the Browns suck, they won't run the ball, Duke will cap his upside etc etc, but in reality, Crowell still had 206 carries and another 42 targets, which in the 5th round, is a solid workload for a guy this talented, with an Oline that is towards the top in the league.  I believe in Tyrod, Gordon, and Landry.  Technically the Browns have a ton of talent.  It's amazing that they'll probably still find a way to suck terribly.  The offense should be able to move the ball.  Hyde should dominate goal line work and get far more than the 2 Crowell got last year, and running QBs can sometimes lead to massive holes for the RB when defenses bite.  I wouldn't put a dime on it, but I don't really see a reason Hyde can't be a top 12 back again if he's healthy.

 

6.08: Kyle Rudolph

I missed on Gronk.  4th felt too early for Graham and the TE pool was going to get real shallow real quick.  If Watkins fell to me, I probably would have taken that chance.  There's not a single RB in this round that interested me.  Delanie is just so old, but he keeps getting it done.  A new QB, 2 rising WRs, and a RB who showed promise last year.  He's in that no mans land of 'great offense that should move the ball, but maybe there's too many mouths to feed?'.  Either way, he's a set it and forget it TE in a league where streaming is a miserable game of guess who's going to go 1/1/1 this week from the FA TE's available ranking 20th-28th.  Gross.  There are only 2 TEs remaining that interest me and both are significant injury risks, that inevitably lead me to the same streaming game I despise by mid season anyways.

 

7.07: Drew Brees

I wanted Crowell.  I had my sights set on another QB, but man it's difficult to say no to Drew Brees in the 7th round of a 14 team league.  The real decision was that there are 3 teams on this side of the wrap without a QB, and only 2 I had left in my tier.  If 2 of the 3 teams take a QB, I felt like I take a noticeable hit at the position, and start falling into the streaming scenarios or playing matchups with the stat padding scrubs who are just as likely to throw for 0 TDs and 250 yards as they are 3 TDs and 300 yards any given week.  That up and down is deadly in a league this size, and I didn't want to be apart of it.  I think Brees is on the downslope of his career.  I think last years offense was by design.  I don't expect to see anything near 5,000 yards or 40 Tds again for him, and the offensive options beyond M.Thomas are just... meh.  Can Kamara repeat 800+ receiving yards?  Likely not.  Watson, Meredith, and Ginn don't give me any warm fuzzy feelings.

 

From here forward it's time to switch gears.  I have the core of my team set and now it's time to start taking some risks, to fill that last flex spot, and try to find some diamonds in the rough.  I have 7 more non K/D picks, which I should try and make 5 RBs, 2 WRs.  But knowing my dumbass, I'll probably go 5 WRs and 2RBs.  Which is why I should have drafted more RBs early, but I didn't prepare enough, and the small amount of planning I did do, I abandoned in the 2nd round.  Pretty soon here is when this league starts making drastic reaches to lock down their sleepers and ADP becomes meaningless.

 

Favorite team so far: MrBlonde at 3.  Bell, Freeman, McCoy is one hell of a trio if they all reach top 10 status, which is easily within reach.  Alshon, Jordy, and Marvin Jones offer 3 names we've all seen with top 10 potential as well.  He could realistically have 6 top 10 players at their specific positions.  If he snags the right QB/TE combo quickly, he'll be a scary team.

Honorable mention: TooBad.  Cam is arguably my favorite player in the league.  I dislike Gordon but he produces, so what do I know.  Cook looked great last year.  Fitz is a stud until proven otherwise.  Don't doubt Diggs.  Garcon didn't even get to play with The Garrops and was still pacing 80/1000 last season.  Something about Shanahan and his X WR goes here.

 

Least liked team:  BrokenB at .  I've never been an Adams fan, I've been down on Amari for 3 years.  Thomas and Ertz are solid.  RW3 is hard to argue after his #1 QB campaign last year, but I always feel like he can only be counted on for half the season.  The run game might actually exist this year, Graham is gone, I think Baldwin is a rich mans DeSean Jackson, and the 34 TDs are an outlier. (Granted he's done it once before, both career highs, but every other year he's capped at 26 or fewer.)  Marlon Mack without Gore is just an unknown to me.  Unsexy but could very well be just as, if not more, productive.  Will Luck play?
Dishonorable mention: Zidane?  Seems high price for Brady, but he was #2 in our league last year I just noticed, so maybe I'm just wrong.  What will happen to Tyreek with Watkins in town and a new QB?  I'm not paying a 2nd to find out.  2 QBs?  Insurance for Brady I understand, but Wentz is good enough to make Brady a potential wasted pick.  Drake has never impressed me, they signed Gore, and the Dolphins haven't been very smart with their RB usage in a while, even when Ajayi blew up, they were doing some dumb things off and on.  Walkers fine and... man I must have missed the JuJu hype train, I feel like I simply don't know enough to have an educated opinion so I'll pass.

 

Self reflection:  I think I'll come to regret the Brees pick most, but who's available at my next pick will determine that.  I would have taken E.Sanders instead.

I'm trying to decide if AB, KA, JG, Hyde, Miller sounds better than AB, McCoy, Ajayi, Hyde, Miller and sadly, I think the answer is no.  Especially given the WRs still out there.  Ultimately I think I'll be disappointed I didn't pay more attention to the players/targets that would be around in the double digit rounds, and allow them to dictate my early-draft preference, like I usually preach each year.  

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Ty Montgomery - RB, Green Bay

 

At this stage of the draft, no one is going to find a workhorse RB, so the goal becomes finding guys that are on the field enough to make significant contributions.

Montgomery has all the tools and will line up in the backfield, the slot and outside.

Green Bay is seemingly thin at WR this season, so that creates added opportunity for Montgomery.

I see his having an opportunity to stay on the field while the other RBs are out there.

 

Montgomery broke multiple ribs 4 games in to the season and never really got going as a RB.

He did have 18 receptions during the first 3 weeks, a nice indicator of what they had planned for him.

 

Definitely a lot of mouths to feed in the GB backfield, but Montgomery was slotted to be the lead guy last year and I think he leads in overall touches this season.

I can see why people gravitate to Williams & Jones as they were productive as rookies last season and there's always recency bias.

I wanted a piece of the Green Bay backfield, so this is a "wait for the last guy" selection...

Montgomery is the one RB of the three I wanted most.

 

@ToO_BaD - OTC

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1.3: Lev Bell - Not much to think about here, IMO. He actually my No. 1 overall player, though it's close for me with Gurley. He just does so much in the passing game, never comes out by the goal line, and is a consistent point scorer with potential for huge weeks. He's been banged up a bit the last couple of years but that's really his only blemish. If healthy, he will be a home run. 

 

2.12: Devonta Freeman - I think he may be sliding in drafts due to recency bias, but his down season last year can easily be attributed to injury. Hell, the Falcons as a whole regressed, so it's fair to expect them to trend more toward normal this year since they were so down last year and so up the year before. I know he shares with Coleman, but there's plenty of meat on the bone for both. 

 

3.3: LeSean McCoy - An oldie but a goodie. This is not your father's McCoy, but based on projected volume alone, hes worth the pick here in the 3rd. He can still do it all, even if his explosiveness has been sapped due to injuries and age. As an RB3, cant complain at all.

 

4.12: Alshon Jeffery - Supremely talented but always injured, hes a risk this year due to rotator cuff surgery. Reports are he will be ready for Week 1, and he is deadly with Wentz on deep balls.

 

5.3: Marvin Jones - Pretty sure he finished top 5 in standard last season and was one of the best deep threats in the NFL based on some metric I dont feel like looking up. He's a beast, but I expect a lot of boom or bust weeks, which from my WR2 is fine.

 

6.12: Rex Burkhead - I think he has just a good a chance to lead the NE committee as anyone, he can catch, and he was the goal line back last season when healthy. I'll die on the Burkhead hill this year, and for the price, I'm fine with it.

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6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

135 fantasy points is a week and a half worth of  points in this league.

 

Completely agree, having the QB1 vs the QB14 last year was a big deal. But difference between 2 and 14 was around 65 points and 2 to 13 was around 52 points. Having the QB1 is obviously a big advantage if they have a big year, hitting on that QB maybe not as easy and as you alluded to, you draft your QB14 in round 12 or so whereas you draft your RB14 in round 2 or 3. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Dishonorable mention: Zidane?  Seems high price for Brady, but he was #2 in our league last year I just noticed, so maybe I'm just wrong.  What will happen to Tyreek with Watkins in town and a new QB?  I'm not paying a 2nd to find out.  2 QBs?  Insurance for Brady I understand, but Wentz is good enough to make Brady a potential wasted pick.  Drake has never impressed me, they signed Gore, and the Dolphins haven't been very smart with their RB usage in a while, even when Ajayi blew up, they were doing some dumb things off and on.  Walkers fine and... man I must have missed the JuJu hype train, I feel like I simply don't know enough to have an educated opinion so I'll pass.

 

I'll have a full rundown after the draft, but I'll talk a bit about what I've done so far.

 

1) Todd Gurley - Don't think there's any objection there.  I like Gurley better than Bell and DJ out of personal preference.

 

2) Kenyan Drake - Drake was the 17th RB picked in this draft, and I think he will finish in the Top 10-12.  McCoy was still available and is a solid hand, but I think the loss of Tyrod hurts him a bit.  I don't think Shady will repeat a career low 3.97 YPC, but I think the Bills offense as a whole regresses this season.  I think Jay Ayaji and Derrick Henry are in 60-40 timeshares and both will be lucky to get 25 catches.  I personally think Drake is "for real", at least in the RB10-RB12 sense.  Frank Gore is immortal, but the fact that Gore is essentially the only person behind Drake means that the Dolphins think Drake's Weeks 12-16 is legit.  I think there is a MASSIVE dropoff at RB after Round 3.

 

3) Tyreek Hill - As someone who lives near Buffalo, I believe that Sammy Watkins helps Tyreek's fantasy prospects.  Watkins is a solid #2 WR, but not a #1.  Watkins 15 YPC is good enough to keep people from double teaming Hill.  Watkins season stats through 4 years are: 65-982-6, 60-1047-9, 28-430-2, 39-593-8.  Watkins played a full season last year (Rams rested starters in Week 17), and finished with almost 200 receiving yards less than Todd Gurley (788).  I think Watkins can play well in KC, but it will be in the 50-800-6 range.  I think Tyreek is the clear #1 and Watkins will free up just enough double teams to help Hill.

 

4) Tom Brady - I have Brady ranked about 30th.  I took him at 56.  I think he and JJSS were the only guys left in my Top 50 at that point.  I think Brady is in the Top-3 QBs and there is a small drop to my #4 (which strangely was Wentz, I'll get to that).  There is a potential downside; there was a 538 article that basically said that Brady's Weeks 12-16 were the same as Peyton Manning's Weeks 12-16 the year he began to fall off a cliff and then bottom out the next season.  But Brady's SB performance alleviated some of those fears for me.

 

5) JuJu Smith-Schuster - As I said with Brady, Brady and JJSS were the only guys left in my Top-50.  I actually have JJSS ranked 1 spot below Brady at about 31st and I took him at 57.  The opposite of my Tyreek Hill argument, I think Antonio Brown's presence frees up a lot of space for JJSS.  JJSS had 58-917-7 last year despite not really breaking out until Week 8.  My projection of 75-1100-8 is high, but not unreasonable I feel.  Probably closer to 65-70 realistically though.

 

6) Delanie Walker - Matthew Berry said last year something to the effect of he would rather be the first person to take a TE, or the last.  I'm not quite that strong on it, but Delanie was legitimately the last TE I would take before the Round 12-13 turn.  I think the drop off after Walker is MASSIVE at TE and from that point on it becomes just a bunch of 3-for-40 and the occasional TD players.  That includes the fact that my projection of Walker is not that high: 70-800-5 after going 74-807-3 last year (he had 6+ TDs three of the four previous years).

 

7) Carson Wentz - Wentz is my 4th ranked QB because he gets about another 30 fantasy points in rushing the last two years (150-2 in 2016 and 299-0 in 2017).  I think he can go 4100-30-10 in passing this season.  He can even start slowly (for me) because I have Brady.  I did not intend to go 2 QB in this draft, but I have Wentz ranked about 42nd or so, and the next guy I liked was Emmanuel Sanders (who I can mention since BrokenB took him) at about 75th, so that's 30+ spaces of draft value for me.  Also, I had Aaron Rodgers in at least two 10-team leagues last season, and when he went down my season was essentially over in both leagues.  There was nothing on the waiver wire except below average fantasy QBs, and that was in 10-teams.  In a 14-team league, I don't even want to imagine it.  I think it will be much easier to replace Emmanuel Sanders on waivers than risk Brady going down or suddenly becoming old.  Also, it felt last year like a lot more starting QBs went down than usual.  Maybe it was just confirmation bias though.

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