cyberer

Franchy Cordero 2018 Outlook

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So is he going to play tonight vs a lefty?

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52 minutes ago, mtw02 said:

So is he going to play tonight vs a lefty?

If I had to guess, I'd say 'no' because they'll probably want to get Margot back in there.  But...after homering off a lefty last night, it would be interesting to see if they give him the start against one.  Also, he does have a higher batting average against lefties this year, so it's not like he's Dan Vogelbach against them.  Crossing fingers..

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6 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

If I had to guess, I'd say 'no' because they'll probably want to get Margot back in there.  But...after homering off a lefty last night, it would be interesting to see if they give him the start against one.  Also, he does have a higher batting average against lefties this year, so it's not like he's Dan Vogelbach against them.  Crossing fingers..

Oh wow, so Franchy and Margot are both in the lineup...Franchy batting second.  Nice!

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Does anyone think they'll start shifting Pirela to 2B, like rumored in ST, to give Franchy, Margot, Myers full time OF?

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3 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

yeah the OBP and K rate concerns me, but I like what I see when he makes contact and runs.

 

He's an incredibly gifted athlete.  Top 10 in all of MLB, possibly top 5.

 

Having said that,  he is also quite raw as a player.   The growth he has shown over the last calendar year has been tremendous and is a wonderful indication that he's capable of improving.  But I'm fully expecting him to have massive ups and downs throughout this season and perhaps even next year as well. 

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So, I realize he had a golden sombrero last night but there are still some positive developments going on with his plate discipline. No, he isn't setting the world on fire, but any improvement is still encouraging with a player like this.

 

2017: 38% O-swing 2018: 30% O-swing

2017: 47.8% O-contact 2018: 51.5% O-contact

2017: 68.1% Z-con 2018: 77.2% Z-con

2017: 21.1%swstr  2018: 15.1% swstr

 

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1 hour ago, Dirtywater97 said:

So, I realize he had a golden sombrero last night but there are still some positive developments going on with his plate discipline. No, he isn't setting the world on fire, but any improvement is still encouraging with a player like this.

 

2017: 38% O-swing 2018: 30% O-swing

2017: 47.8% O-contact 2018: 51.5% O-contact

2017: 68.1% Z-con 2018: 77.2% Z-con

2017: 21.1%swstr  2018: 15.1% swstr

 

I'd be more concerned if that golden sombrero was against a RHP.  He's still learning to hit lefties and did have a HR the other night off one, so I'm holding.  Dude is crushing the ball when he makes contact.

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4 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

I'd be more concerned if that golden sombrero was against a RHP.  He's still learning to hit lefties and did have a HR the other night off one, so I'm holding.  Dude is crushing the ball when he makes contact.

Yeah, I mean if he can hit on power a level comparable to Gallo, Judge, and Stanton. How much average does he really need to hit for when he has elite speed and defense? I suppose the biggest concern is the walk rate and OBP. I'm not sure where the Padres need that to be exactly considering the other factors.

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I am falling in love with this kid. The skill set combo is simply unheard of:

 

-Franchy is leading the league in AVG Exit Velocity (mph) at 98.9. Next closest 97.8 (Moncada). This is a huge gap.

  Judge led 2017 at 95.0 mph. Judge is currently at 96.3.   

 

-Frenchy is leading the league in HR Distance 489 ft. Next closet is Avi Garcia at 481 ft (surprising). 

 Judge led 2017 at 495. Only three players had a HR over 484 in 2017; Judge, Sanchez (493) and Gallo (490).  

 

-Fruanchy's launch angle of 28.8 degrees is 0.4 degrees higher than Judge's '17 angle and 0.1 higher than Sanchez's '17 angle.

His launch angle and avg exit velocity are in a beautiful position. In 2017 the combination equated to a 0.630 AVG 1.203 wOBA 53.7% HR. *Rounded launch up to 29 degrees -- 28 was better for AVG worse for HR%

 

-Frynchy's Sprint Speed (ft / sec) is 29.4. Tied for 8th. Only names above him Buxton, A. Engel, Story (wha?), Turner, Hamiliton, Dee, D. Fischer.

 

-Top 15 in Barrels/PA (12.0%)

-Top 15 in Barrels/Batted Ball Event (20.7%)

-#2 in Hard Hit (95 MPH+) % (62.1%)

-#5 in AVG HR (440) 

-#5 in FB/LD exit velocity

 

You absolutely need to take a flier on him and pray plate discipline continues to improve:

- 15.1% SwStr% in '18 vs 21.1% in '17

- 67.8% Contact% in '18 vs 59.3% in '17

- 50.0% F-Strike% in '18 vs 66.7% in '17

 

Sources:

-Baseball Savant Statcast

-Baseball Savant Hit Probabilities

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4 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

0-4, 4 Ks........no problem, kid....how does batting cleanup sound today?

 

Big difference between being allowed to learn to hit lhp and struggling versus facing Jon gray in a coors day game. Christmas come early 

Edited by cyberer
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1 hour ago, Fenamo said:

I am falling in love with this kid. The skill set combo is simply unheard of:

 

-Franchy is leading the league in AVG Exit Velocity (mph) at 98.9. Next closest 97.8 (Moncada). This is a huge gap.

  Judge led 2017 at 95.0 mph. Judge is currently at 96.3.   

 

-Frenchy is leading the league in HR Distance 489 ft. Next closet is Avi Garcia at 481 ft (surprising). 

 Judge led 2017 at 495. Only three players had a HR over 484 in 2017; Judge, Sanchez (493) and Gallo (490).  

 

-Fruanchy's launch angle of 28.8 degrees is 0.4 degrees higher than Judge's '17 angle and 0.1 higher than Sanchez's '17 angle.

His launch angle and avg exit velocity are in a beautiful position. In 2017 the combination equated to a 0.630 AVG 1.203 wOBA 53.7% HR. *Rounded launch up to 29 degrees -- 28 was better for AVG worse for HR%

 

-Frynchy's Sprint Speed (ft / sec) is 29.4. Tied for 8th. Only names above him Buxton, A. Engel, Story (wha?), Turner, Hamiliton, Dee, D. Fischer.

 

-Top 15 in Barrels/PA (12.0%)

-Top 15 in Barrels/Batted Ball Event (20.7%)

-#2 in Hard Hit (95 MPH+) % (62.1%)

-#5 in AVG HR (440) 

-#5 in FB/LD exit velocity

 

You absolutely need to take a flier on him and pray plate discipline continues to improve:

- 15.1% SwStr% in '18 vs 21.1% in '17

- 67.8% Contact% in '18 vs 59.3% in '17

- 50.0% F-Strike% in '18 vs 66.7% in '17

 

Sources:

-Baseball Savant Statcast

-Baseball Savant Hit Probabilities

 

Feel like I just dialed a 1-900 number...

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26 minutes ago, hgh22 said:

 

Feel like I just dialed a 1-900 number...

I think you'd hear the difference fairly quickly.

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If you guys are believers in xstats here you go:

 

AVG .234 vs xAVG .299

SLG .511 vs xSLG .665

wOBA .322 vs xwOBA .415

 

 

HOLD

Edited by Dirtywater97
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Bomb... so hype about this guy and glad I nabbed him in my Dynasty. Power/speed combo is ridiculous 

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I'm getting excited about this kid.... 

 

Plate discipline metrics show he's made some real changes his K% should fall to a more reasonable level.

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Rotoworld

Franchy Cordero - OF - Padres

Franchy Cordero went 2-for-4 and homered for the Padres' lone run in Friday's loss to the Mets.

Cordero homered off Matt Harvey in the ninth, giving him five homers in 14 games. He also has 22 strikeouts in those 14 games, so it hasn't been all great. Still, it's probably worth playing him over Jose Pirela at the moment. He actually started over Manuel Margot tonight, which is less than ideal.

Apr 28 - 12:57 AM

 

Man, what does RW have against this guy?  It's like Bench Heat 2.0.  Time to prove the doubters wrong, Franchy!

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On 4/26/2018 at 8:25 AM, Dirtywater97 said:

If you guys are believers in xstats here you go:

 

AVG .234 vs xAVG .299

SLG .511 vs xSLG .665

wOBA .322 vs xwOBA .415

 

 

HOLD

xStats currently doesn't make adjustments for strikeout rate or walk rate though right?  Isn't it purely based on Exit Velo+Launch Angle?

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31 minutes ago, StarlinCastro said:

xStats currently doesn't make adjustments for strikeout rate or walk rate though right?  Isn't it purely based on Exit Velo+Launch Angle?

xAVG (Expected Batting Average) would be the expert level analysis tool but, ironically, ends up being the easiest to understand once generated. There isn’t a site that has this readily available but using xBABIP we can calculate an xAVG like this: (HR+xBABIP*(AB-K-HR+SF))/AB. It’s not pretty but it takes the expected BABIP to figure out the expected number of hits and then divide that by AB’s. While it’s a pain in the butt to gather, it gives you a situation where you can say “In 2011, Alex Avila’s expected average was .269 but he hit .295 so his average should be closer to .269 in 2012.” And, that sounds a heck of a lot nicer than “In 2011, Alex Avila hit .295 but had a BABIP of .366 which was well above his expected BABIP of .329 so his average should drop by some amount in 2012. 

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2 minutes ago, Dirtywater97 said:

xAVG (Expected Batting Average) would be the expert level analysis tool but, ironically, ends up being the easiest to understand once generated. There isn’t a site that has this readily available but using xBABIP we can calculate an xAVG like this: (HR+xBABIP*(AB-K-HR+SF))/AB. It’s not pretty but it takes the expected BABIP to figure out the expected number of hits and then divide that by AB’s. While it’s a pain in the butt to gather, it gives you a situation where you can say “In 2011, Alex Avila’s expected average was .269 but he hit .295 so his average should be closer to .269 in 2012.” And, that sounds a heck of a lot nicer than “In 2011, Alex Avila hit .295 but had a BABIP of .366 which was well above his expected BABIP of .329 so his average should drop by some amount in 2012. 

I thought you were referencing the xAVG stat calculated by xStats.org.  This must be something different because I am fairly certain that the numbers on XStats are calculated using ExitVelo+LA.  If I may ask, where is the above paragraph from and where do you get your xBA values?

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